Round The World

New Delhi, 21 August 2007

Domestic Nuclear Divide

Foreign Policy Implications

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The current political turmoil in India over the civilian nuclear cooperation deal with the United States has raised questions about the viability of the Congress-led UPA coalition Government, but none seems to be bothered about its foreign policy implications for the country.

One can discern smiles on the faces of the Pakistanis, the Chinese and probably the Russians. Pakistan has demanded a similar treatment offered to India on the civilian nuclear sector by the US. The Bush Administration’s refusal to concede Islamabad’s request has been taken lightly in New Delhi in view of its wishes being fulfilled with minimum or no effort.

Now Pakistan has a chance to heartily laugh even as the Indian political groups appear to be at each other’s throat to stop the deal or to go ahead with it. The size of the Pakistani smile will be proportionate to the intensity of the Indian domestic political conflict over the nuclear issue.

The Chinese ruling elite as usual have refrained from grinning or giggling over the indecisiveness of the Indian democracy over an issue of vital national interest. But the quiet satisfaction is clearly visible to the observant eyes. Failure on the part of India would be welcome in China, since Beijing would not have to show its hesitation or haggle for economic or political gains at the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group in exchange of its quiet acquiescence to alter the guidelines to enable India to enter the international nuclear market.

More significantly, Beijing will consider any delay or bumps in the improving US-Indian relations blissful, since it would spare it from brooding over the ramifications of the Indo-US strategic partnership.

Russia, the dominant inheritor of the former Soviet Union, has begun to flex its muscle in international politics. A rapidly growing economy with rising oil and gas revenue has enabled Moscow, a military giant, to demand more space in the world’s political and strategic affairs. The Russians continue to view India as a strategic partner and are trying to increase their involvement in India’s military market as well as in the energy sector.

As the Indian demand for energy will exponentially rise along with its galloping industrial expansion, all major powers with various sources of energy are keeping a watchful eye on the Indian energy market. The Russians view the American effort to enter the Indian market through the nuclear deal as a challenge to their ambitions.

While India’s traditional friend and erstwhile enemies have cause for delight in the current tug-of--war over the Indo-US nuclear deal, New Delhi’s new partners too have begun to display their political posturing. Australia, for instance, has been blowing hot and cold over its intention to sell or not to sell uranium to India. Statements from the Australian political leaders and officials are timed and shaped by indications of growing closeness or distance between India and the US, particularly in the field of nuclear trade.

Whenever there is an event that indicates a successful move towards a nuclear deal between India and the US, a statement or two is reported from Australia dangling hopes of uranium trade with India. Any event or issue that signals difficulty in signing and sealing the Indo-US nuclear deal, someone or the other from Australia puts a new spin and talks tough on uranium trade with India. The latest example is a report that suggests that if the Labour Party wins the next election in Australia, it would oppose any sale of uranium to India.

Whether one appreciates it or not, most of the American allies in Asia and Europe continue to watch the signals from Washington before making any economic or strategic ventures into non-traditional areas. There is little doubt that improvement in India’s relations with Australia, Japan and South Korea and ASEAN countries has been partly facilitated by the comprehensive expansion in Indo-US relations.

But for the Clinton initiative in March 2000 and the Bush Administration’s determination to upgrade relations with India, India’s growing economic and political links with these countries and many others would have been far from soft and shinny, as they appear to be.

One can venture a prediction that any clamminess in India’s relations with the US will have cascading effect on India’s over-all foreign relations with a host of countries, which share a common economic and strategic outlook with the United States.

It is also likely that failure on the part of India to delay or abandon the nuclear deal will bring considerable negative consequences for the bilateral relationship. There will be, for sure, no rupture in the relationship. Even during the Indo-US duel over alliance politics versus non-alignment and a long era of India’s strategic closeness with America’s main adversary, the Soviet Union, the two countries experienced fruitful cooperation in very many areas. But the future opportunity cost of a failed nuclear deal will be enormous.

Today, there is a bipartisan consensus in the US over the need for promoting multi-dimensional ties with India. But the current political commotion over the 123 Agreement has indicated that India is a divided house on the issue of establishing better and closer relations with the United States. This is already sending a damaging message across to the United States. 

While many Opposition parties have little anti-Americanism in their views and more nuanced nationalist feelings, the Left political parties appear to be almost allergic towards the rising defence and security relations with the United States. Their main opposition to the 123 Agreement is based on their assumption that it would cement strategic relations with the US — a policy they are dead against.

Never before has a foreign policy issue become a political football to an extent of threatening the durability of a Government and complicating the foreign policy of the nation. The current situation is in a way a bad omen. The BJP is contemplating a mid-term poll. The Left parties are not sure whether they should bring down the UPA Government on the nuclear issue. The Congress Party is lamenting that its allies as well as the opponents are either staging a walkout or issuing ultimatum instead of debating the issue and seeking clarifications. 

Suddenly, the Left Parties have turned nationalists! The BJP has disowned its initiatives to forge strategic partnership with the United States. And the Congress is finding it difficult to explain that the parent organization did not fight for Independence, so that in future the party members will mortgage the country’s security and sovereignty to another western power. --- INFA

(Copyright, India News And Feature Alliance)