India News and Features Alliance (INFA) - Political Upheaval in Pakistan,by Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra, 31 July 2007

Pakistan today is in turmoil. Politics is in utter confusion. Society is ablaze with rising number of terrorist attacks. The North West Frontier Province continues to be ungovernable. Islamabad’s writ does not work there. It makes no difference who is at the helm of affairs, the military or civilian leadership. The latest national intelligence estimate of the US government has issued a warning on the resurfacing of Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in Pakistan.

President Musharraf has more enemies today than ever before. The religious political parties and groups have turned completely hostile to him after the Lal Masjid incident. Earlier they were angry with him over his friendly overtures towards India, ignoring the Kashmiris’ interests and withdrawing diplomatic and political support to anti-India militant organsiations. Today, there is a widespread belief that he has become Busharraf by taking direct orders from President Bush and tormenting, arresting or killing Muslim brothers.

The so-called agreements Musharraf signed with tribal leaders co-opting them in handling the Taliban and Al Qaeda threats along the Afghan border have backfired. In fact, there have been more cases of cross-border terrorism along the Pak-Afghan border since the signing of that agreement.

President Musharraf’s plan to remove Justice Chaudhary failed miserably as people across the board rose up in revolt. Now the Supreme Court has re-instated justice Chaudhary.

In all this, the US of course maintained a studied silence whenever President Musharraf resorted to anti-democratic means to continue in power. But since it started becoming increasingly evident that Musharraf was turning out to be an unpopular leader, the Bush administration began to mouth the need for strengthening democracy in Pakistan.

It may be recalled that the rigged election of 2002, which enabled Musharraf to showcase his democratic credentials, was quietly accepted by the US in view of his importance in the war against terror. Washington not only channeled billions of dollars of assistance to bolster the sinking economy of Pakistan but also turned the country into a major non-NATO ally. While Musharraf held sham elections and described himself as President to crate an image of a transitional democratic experiment, Bush officials were all praise for the supreme ruler of Pakistan.

Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher often tells the US legislators in Congressional hearings how the State Department intends to support Pakistani efforts to strengthen democratic institutions and points towards the ensuing elections in Pakistan in October 2007.

However, in the US, the attitude towards Islamabad is taking an interesting turn. In the midst of intensifying political complexity in Pakistan, the Bush Administration has been putting the pressure on Musharraf to deliver on his promises. The incessant praise on him as a great frontline soldier in the fight against terrorism has become a thing of the past. The lawmakers in the US Congress have begun to demand an account of the $10 billion invested in Pakistan since September 2001. The White House has no option but to ask Musharraf to enhance his performance in capturing or killing the Al Qaeda operatives.

At one point, the ‘helpless’ Pakistani President put up a brave face and retorted that he had done whatever was possible. He is aware that the performance of the coalition forces in Afghanistan and Iraq in confronting terrorist groups is no better. But at the same time, he is aware of his own vulnerabilities.

Once out of power, Musharraf’s position could become precarious. No one but the Americans will be able to secure his life. The US has provided safe habitat to departing dictators friendly to it. Two assassination attempts, increasing hostility with the Islamic groups, growing strength of the Taliban and the Al Qaeda in the country and an increase in terror attacks in cities are indicators that Pakistan’s political power is eroding fast.

It is in this backdrop, that President Musharraf has extended his hand to former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Pakistani politicians and leaders are notoriously capable of smiling and dining with the enemies. The recent meetings between Musharaf and Bhutto thus need not raise eyebrows. By one stroke, Musharraf has been able to neutralize former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The latter was reportedly trying to make common cause with Benazir to return to active politics in Pakistan and put up a joint front against the current military regime.

While this development appears to be a smart move by Musharraf, it is thoroughly enigmatic. How can Benazir help him protect his position and political power? What can he give to her in return? Even if elected to the National Assembly, Benazir cannot become the Prime Minister, under the present Constitution, since she has already twice served in that post. Which position can be offered to her without amending the Constitution?

Benazir, on the other hand, has indicated that she could support Musharraf who would have stepped down from his office as the Army Chief. Will she settle down for low price in terms of dropping of all charges against her and her family members? Can that be a credible bargain?

Behind-the-scene details of the political deal between Benazir and Musharraf are unknown. Speculation too is difficult. However, there are reports that the US and some of its European allies support this latest move. In the hope that a marriage of convenience between the civilian and military leaders would be of great help in keeping the Islamic extremists at bay.

Many questions, however, remain answered. Will Nawaz Sharif keep quiet when Benazir and Musharraf team up? Won’t the Islamic extremists see this move as a ganging up against them and step up violent acts? One thing seems to be clear. Whether the latest deal making succeeds or fails, it would prevent Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto from coming together against the military regime. The trust deficit between these two civilian leaders has already increased. Pakistan is clearly in for a prolonged period of uncertainty, confusion and upheaval.--- INFA