Round The World

New Delhi, 17 July 2007

MUSHARRAF ON HIS WAY OUT?

By Sreedhar

With each passing day Pakistan is slowly moving in to a chaotic situation. Initially what started as a silent protest against the arbitrary dismissal of the Chief Justice of Pakistan Chaudhary, on 9 March last by President Musharraf, is now snow-balling into a movement against military rule. It is uncertain whether there will be a show-down between the authorities and the protestors but cracks are appearing in the polity. This is one scenario unfolding in Pakistan.

There was a public outcry against the vandalism let loose by Gen. Musharraf’s henchmen, the Muttahide Quami Movement (MQM) in Karachi in mid-May. The fight between the warring factions raised a question: Is there rule of law in the army-ruled Pakistan?  Interestingly, once renegade, the MQM’s support to President Musharraf today has not endeared him to Pakistan’s political elite or to the international community.

The first signs of the international community’s displeasure were the revelation in the Western media about the US and its allies’ aid to Pakistan. According to these reports, Islamabad was being paid US $1 billion annually for the past six years in the West’s fight against terrorism. Two, post 9/11 for capturing the ring leaders of these terrorists’ outfits who are currently living in Pakistan. In simple arithmetic, the West is paying almost two-thirds of Pakistan’s defence budget during this period. This reality check is prompting one to ask: How far should they go with Gen. Musharraf?

Not only that. According to reports from Islamabad, the institution of the armed forces is coming under increasing criticism. The issue is not whether Musharraf can hold the dual charge of the Presidency and the Chief of the Army Staff. But the fact that there is a growing discontentment in the armed forces about the disrepute to which they are being subjected to. 

For instance, in the Karachi demonstrations, a poster showing the Pakistani flag with a military man’s shoe over it became immensely popular. Whether this will adversely affect the command and control structure of the armed forces is not known as yet. The only indication is that some middle-level officers tried to stage a coup against Musharraf in December 2005 but failed in their plans.

In the past, during different periods of Pakistani history, the armed forces as a unit were never criticized by the crowds. However, for the first time, during the current ongoing protests against Gen. Musharraf, slogans like napak (impure) army muradabad have been raised.  Something the armed forces are not used to. It remains to be seen whether top serving Generals like Gen. Ahasan Saleem Haq and Gen. Ehasanul Haq will react sharply against this criticism and make Gen. Musharraf pay for it. If they do so, it would not be surprising.

Some Pakistani commentators state that Gen. Musharraf divided the army into three distinct administrative units which reduced the chances of coup by the army. However, it would be premature to state how far this compartmentalization of the armed forces is effective in the fast changing political uncertainty in Pakistan. According to reports from Islamabad, pro-Musharraf elements are prevailing on the President to do something dramatic to checkmate the growing anarchy and his dwindling popularity.

At another level, the opposition to Gen. Musharraf rule is increasing in Western Capitals. The question being asked is: How long do they have to support the autocratic rule of a military ruler? Though the Bush Administration is not willing to change gears in Islamabad publicly, as Pakistan continues to be the lynch pin in its war against terrorism, policy makers are increasingly feeling that it would be difficult to continue to support Gen. Musharraf. As one US Congressman reportedly said, “Why should we pay our taxpayers’ money to a dictator who wants to perpetuate army rule and be friendly with terrorists at the same time.”

Adding to the Western discontent was the six-month-long confrontation between Musharraf’s Government and the Lal Masjid Mullahs in Islamabad which ended in Operations Silence.  The over hundred deaths of radical Islamists including some Uzbek, Chechen and Arabs showed that the terrorists had penetrated even the nation’s Capital. 

Moreover, the resistance from the radical groups in Lal Masjid appeared to have been approved at the highest level of the Al-Qaeda. A day after Operations Silence ended, both Osama and al-Zawahry, talked of martyrdom and asked the Muslims of Pakistan to revolt against Gen. Musharraf. Clearly indicating that the battle lines are being drawn between Islamabad and Al-Qaeda.

On its part, the West perceives Islamabad’s response as weak-kneed in dealing with the radical groups. In fact, the Government was forced to call the army, the last instrument for any Government, to evict the radicals from Lal Masjid. Also, as the Lal Masid drama was unfolding, a suicide bomber in Baluchistan attacked an army convoy on 4 July last, killing 11 people including 6 army officers. Again, on 12 July there was a suicide bomb attack in the NWFP against a Pak army convoy killing 45 soldiers.

Making plain that the armed forces headed by Gen. Musharraf are no longer the darling of the masses; and the ‘hate armed forces’ is snowballing into a movement. It remains to be seen whether this will lead to an open confrontation that can derail the existing power structure.

Pertinently, during Gen. Zia ul Haq rule, the Lal Masjid and its Mullahs were favoured by the armed forces. A large number of officers and men from the armed forces used to go to there regularly and pray, as late as 2005 and 2006. In the post Zia period, it became a hub of terrorist organizations like the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Jaish-e-Mohammad, right under the nose of Islamabad’s concerned authorities and in the vicinity of the diplomatic corps present there.

Clearly indicating that two of Pakistan’s three pillars (Allah, America and Armed Forces) are no longer comfortable with Gen. Musharraf and his style of ruling. The armed forces are the only institution supporting him, and will continue to do till such time as he is able to get ‘goodies’ from the US. According to reports, Washington is already working on alternatives to Gen. Musharraf.

From New Delhi’s perspective, the ongoing Indo-Pak dialogue and Confidence Building Measures must continue at two levels. One, hold talks with the armed forces-dominated Government in Islamabad. At the same time, develop contacts with other forces which may seize power at an opportune time or influence the course of events in the coming months. Therefore, India has to engage with a broad spectrum of people from various fields including the armed forces in Pakistan.

In sum, there is no gainsaying that a tough job lies ahead for our South Block mandarins. Specially, against the backdrop that on the last two occasions, South Block missed the bus. Recall, New Delhi was clueless when Gen Yaya Khan replaced Field Marshal Ayub Khan in 1969 and Bhutto led public demonstrations. Again, in 1988 India was caught off guard when Gen. Zia-ul-Haq died in air ‘accident”. India cannot afford be caught off guard this time round. ----- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)