Round The World

New Delhi, 8 May 2007

New Kind Of Terror

Pakistan’s Troubles, India’s Woes

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

India’s happiness will increasingly depend on internal developments within Pakistan in years to come. It is because the zero-sum nature of relations between India and Pakistan have become a thing of the past.

There was, of course, never a time in the past when India was not affected by developments within Pakistan. The wars between two countries in the past were partly the result of internal power struggles within Pakistan. They were the byproduct of Pakistan’s perceptions of insecurity. But then these were the days of sub-Continental rivalries and the cold war.

But internal developments within Pakistan in the future will most likely have a different kind of impact on India. Indian leaders in the recent past have made repeated statements that India’s interests would be best served by a strong and stable Pakistan. These statements were aimed at removing misperceptions in Pakistan about its insecurity in a sub-Continent dominated by India.

However, these statements will have more relevance in years to come than ever in the past. First, it is because the two countries have now been bound by a commitment to take forward the peace process. A domestic consensus within Pakistan on the peace process and a politically stable Pakistan are essential for further strengthening the peace process. Secondly, if the peace process ends in bilateral friendship and cooperation, economic problems in Pakistan will have a spill-over effect on India. Pakistan’s economic agonies can threaten the rising trend of Indian economy in the future.

Thirdly, Pakistan-based terrorism is unlikely to go soon. At one time, Pakistan was an important incubator of terrorism. Now it is becoming a victim of terrorist acts. The ongoing struggle of the Taliban in Afghanistan to re-emerge as a force; the vulnerabilities of the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan; presence of large number of Taliban supporters or sympathizers in Pakistani society and even in sections of the ruling establishment have come to pose a persistent challenge to Pakistan’s unity and domestic order. Unless controlled, India cannot remain free of the ill-effects of their activities. The Taliban in its new avatar will strike all those who have sided directly or indirectly with the United States in the latter’s war against terrorism.

India is likely to experience a new kind of cross-border terrorism; this time not backed by the Pakistani ruling establishment but by a host of non-state actors with a dangerous international network of organizations. Both the Pakistani Government and the Indian Government may have to truly join hands to stop such cross-border activities of groups, which threaten to destroy the efforts towards building a new architecture of security and order in South Asia.

To keep India safe, the Union Government may have to willy-nilly assist the Pakistani Government in maintaining order in that country. More so because the rise and spread of the Taliban may contribute towards generation of new ethnic strife in Pakistan and may even threaten the territorial integrity of Pakistan.

India is thus likely to be directly affected in the near future by political, economic and internal security situations in Pakistan. The most immediate issue that needs attention and analysis is, however, the future of the Musharraf regime. General Musharraf came to power through a bloodless coup in October 1999. He has been in power for les than eight years—not a very long period of time unlike many other military or totalitarian dictators.

In less than two years after capturing power in Islamabad, Musharraf came to face the strangest and one of the deadliest of challenges to his regime in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the US in September 2001. He had to turn against the Taliban with which Pakistan Army had very close nexus for years. He had to support the US war against Islamic groups despite domestic opposition. He had to alienate several terrorist organizations that had made common cause with the Pakistani army in waging secessionist operations in Kashmir.  

Now opponents of Musharraf appear to be ganging up against him. His handling of judiciary is less than perfect from one perspective and clear case of heavy handedness from the other. His soft approach towards the Taliban in NWFP has drawn severe criticism from the US. His effort to resolve the Kashmir issue through negotiations with India has angered the militant elements who are waiting in their wings to strike at the earliest opportunity available. The political leaders in exile, such as Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are eager to return to the country to try their luck once again to form a civilian government.

Musharraf himself has promised to hold elections in 2007. India, Pakistan, the US and many other interested arties are carefully monitoring developments in Pakistan and trying to calculate the outcome of elections. There are many scenarios that come to mind. First of all, Musharraf may hold a free and fair election and gracefully step down from power. If he does, he may set a record, since no general heading a military regime ever desires to elegantly step down. Secondly, Musharraf may hold elections but repeats the earlier feat and stays in power. Thirdly, people may choose to return a civilian government to power, but the military regime manages to strike a deal and continue to control a civilian government from behind the scene.

In any case, Pakistan is suddenly not going to see blossoming of democratic governance and the international community has to come to terms with the election outcome. India has little choice but to accept the reality, but has enough time to contemplate on protecting the current phase of the peace process.

Today, we are faced with a situation where India has little leverage, but lots of stake in the domestic developments in Pakistan. The ideal choice for India is to work towards creating a collective defence mechanism in SAARC. Majority of member-countries are faced with the challenge of terrorism and this can be the central focus of a collective defence mechanism. Whoever is at the helm of affairs in Islamabad will have to accept. Collective defence mechanism will be an improvement upon multilateral declarations on terrorism and the intention to create a bilateral mechanism with Pakistan.

The next step should be to elevate this collective defence mechanism to the level of a South Asian security regime. It is possible when India and Pakistan will together try to establish norms with other regional countries to increase security in South Asia. This would help deal with the current security dilemma in the region where arms acquisition by one for defensive purposes is interpreted by the other as a threat. All these steps along with the various aspects of the current peace process have the potentiality to create a security community in South Asia in not too distant a future.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)