Round The World

New Delhi, 3 April 2007

Nuke Crisis Continues

N. Korea Bargains Hard on Bomb

By Monika Chansoria

School of International Studies, JNU

This latest nuke crisis involving the reclusive north-east Asian nation revolves around the latest round of six-party talks that went underway post-October 9 with the primary objective of pushing Pyongyang towards disarmament by virtue of entering into a ‘historic’ disarmament accord signed in February 2007. The agreement came as a result of talks involving the United States, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea.

As part of the six-nation disarmament deal, North Korea was expected to shut down its nuclear facility situated in Yongbyon and accept the monitoring and supervision of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) in addition to accepting back UN inspectors in the country latest by mid-April in exchange for reportedly receiving 50,000 tonnes of heavy fuel for energy use initially and eventually receive one million tonnes of heavy fuel or equivalent energy aid if it permanently closed its nuclear facilities and completely disbanded its atomic weapons programme.

 Another significant clause under that agreement was the release of $ 25 million dollars of North Korean fund that had been frozen since 2005 in a Macau bank amid allegations of counterfeiting and money laundering. Macau authorities are apparently having difficulty confirming the ownership of about 50 North Korean accounts, most of which were said to belong to officials of the Zokwang Trading Co., a Macau-based, North Korean-owned company that the United States has long suspected of money laundering.

Therefore, the hopes raised by means of this deal soon got quashed as Pyongyang withdrew from negotiations making it absolutely clear that it would not begin implementing the six-nation disarmament accord unless and until it receives the money.

Furthermore, the crisis over the North Korean bomb touched elevated levels of frustration due to the latest stalemate, and was evidently reflective in the statement of the South Korean envoy Chun Yung-Woo when he told reporters, “It is difficult for me at the moment to predict when the plenary meeting among the chief delegates will open… It all depends on North Korea....”

The North Korean nuclear issue constituted the first major nuclear non-proliferation crisis of the post-Cold War era with Pyongyang facing stringent economic sanctions for numerous years in addition to political isolation. Yet, North Korea not only existed, but also attracted global prime time coverage, with its nuclear and missile brinkmanship diplomacy. And the latest quandary proves it once again that the North Koreans have successfully maneuvered to bring the region back to its former status quo.

As a matter of fact, the US and North Korea have been at loggerheads since October 2002, with Washington confronting Pyongyang on breaking the terms of a 1994 agreement (Agreed Framework) by reprocessing uranium, which can be used for developing atomic weapons. As part of that agreement, Washington had agreed to help build two-light-water nuclear reactors in the North, a design that uses uranium that cannot be upgraded to weapons-level material.

But it became evidently clear that both sides began backing out of the Framework well before autumn of 2002 with neither side fulfilling their Framework obligations. The subsequent collapse of the Agreed Framework dealt a serious blow to the security situation in the Korean Peninsula and plunged it into yet another impasse marked by suspicion and mistrust.

Moreover, the nuke issue took a new sense of urgency in that Washington did not live up to its promise of providing the reactor and Pyongyang threatened to reopen the facilities at Yongbyon harping on the argument that it had been a victim of the US hostility.

Significantly, in an official statement after conducting the underground nuclear test, the North Korean foreign ministry quoted by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, claimed that the country had made a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation characterizing the test as “a self-defensive counter-measure against the United States’ daily increasing nuclear threat and financial sanctions against it.”

A nuclear-armed North Korea fundamentally alters the geopolitical picture in north-east Asia. A nuclear arms race among Japan, South Korea, and even Taiwan is likely to weaken the global non-proliferation initiative, raising an essential query as to whether the global non-proliferation regime, symbolized by the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) is inescapably breaking down.

The orientations of the North Korean crisis have reached elevated levels with the latest February 2007 estimate citing North Korea possessing a plutonium stock of between 46 and 64 kilograms, of which about 28-50 kilograms are estimated to be in separated form and usable in nuclear weapons. The vast majority of North Korea’s separated plutonium—at least 80 per cent was produced since North Korea’s freeze on production and reprocessing ended in late 2002.

The regional balance undoubtedly has been upset by the October 9 nuclear blasts and the dust is not expected to settle anytime soon. Pyongyang would not take the road to disarmament and relinquish its nuclear capabilities as is expected by a sizeable section of the world community unless and until it secures massive economic bargains as well as security guarantees for itself from the nations that have been in deliberations with the north-east Asian nation. However, what really needs to be judged is how far would the US and its allies be willing to go so as to disarm North Korea critically proving that Pyongyang’s going nuclear has definitely brought in a new sense of urgency to the entire issue.

Indeed, the North Korean negotiators are yet again repeating the pattern of hard bargaining pushing the US and its allies in Asia into a tight spot since giving new incentives and pulling off sanctions might just be perceived as an erroneous move in that providing new incentives and waiving sanctions would be perceived by Pyongyang and few other nations as a reward for defying the world and going nuclear.

Crucially, this might just be a triggering point for nations such as Iran who are tipped to be on the edge of going nuclear. The crisis continues unabated and it appears cogent that any likely solution would have to fall into the category of a grand bargain. A steep uphill task is round the corner with the only difference being that the North Koreans now have actually gained nuclear ability as opposed to the earlier situation of possessing the capability to perhaps go nuclear.                                                               

What is to be seen is whether all these intense discussions and deliberations would succeed in bringing about an end to the deadlock or whether the standoff is likely to escalate in the coming future. The situation is extremely fragile and makes it imperative for the concerned parties to strike out a solution to this long-drawn crisis and ensure that strategic stability prevails in Asia, most of all in the Korean Peninsula.---INFA

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