Round The World

New Delhi, 20 March 2007 

 Attention General

Pakistan at the Crossroads

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

More than seven years after coming to power and more than five years after forming an alliance with the United States to fight against international terrorism, President Musharraf does not appear to be in a firm position to steer Pakistan along the road to make it a stable and safe state.

General Pervez Musharraf came to power by staging a military coup against the backdrop of Pakistan’s military misadventure in the Kargil sector of Kashmir and the eventual political and diplomatic isolation in the international community. Many suspect that Musharraf himself was the mastermind behind the Kargil operation, who appeared determined to continue fomenting trouble in Kashmir after capturing political power. He was in a no way interested in suspending or ending Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism in Kashmir after the debacle in Kargil.

The 9/11 terrorist attacks on the United States, however, spelt disaster for his plan. Under unprecedented American pressure he was compelled to become a soldier against terrorism and transform the country’s role in Kashmir. At one go, Islamabad had to make compromises on its approach towards Afghanistan and Kashmir. He had to turn against the Taliban regime in Kabul, which it had painstakingly promoted and assisted, in the wake of an American warning to choose between the US and the “terrorists” or abettors of terrorism.

Musharraf had no other option but to alter the strategy in the case of terrorism in Kashmir and support the idea of a durable peace with India. As the peace process proceeded robustly, Pakistan’s control over events in Kashmir declined proportionately. In the mean time, the rise of the Taliban activities in the Northwestern province of Pakistan and the bordering regions of Afghanistan led to increased pressure from Washington on Islamabad. President Musharraf had to despatch about 80, 000 Pakistani regular forces to tackle the worsening situation in that region. Once again the Pakistani President had to play the peace tune in his approach towards India and the Kashmir issue.

While losing control over Kabul and Kashmir, President Musharraf did gain a lot by his friendship with the Bush Administration. Billions of dollars of American assistance poured into Pakistan under different heads, such as developmental assistance, educational reforms, police training, counter-insurgency operations and many more. As Pakistan became a frontline state in the war against Al Qaeda and Taliban, it also received considerable amount of military equipment and other related assistance. The F-16 issue, which bedeviled bilateral relations for years, was amicably settled. Moreover, Pakistan was conferred the status of a major non-NATO ally by the Bush Administration.

For quite a few years, President Musharraf acquired unadulterated praise and kudos from the US officials for his cooperation in combating terrorism. The Bush White House also refrained from commenting on Pakistan’s undemocratic governance and pathetic human rights conditions, while seeking to promote a policy of democratization in the Muslim World. More significantly, Washington did little to confront Musharraf when the latter pardoned Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist who was accused of running an international nuclear black market.

The re-emergence of the Taliban activities in Afghanistan, rising number of violent acts and the apprehension about a suspected spring offensive by the Taliban led US Vice President Dick Cheney to make an unannounced trip to Pakistan to issue a warning that there was a growing concern in Washington about Pakistan’s inadequate ability in the war against terrorism. The US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates had earlier visited Pakistan and had voiced similar concerns. President Musharaff shout back and opined that Pakistan had done the “maximum” and that other allies should step in and make “joint efforts” to guard the Pakistan-Afghanistan border

Many in Washington now suspect Musharraf’s abilities and sincerity. Some Congressional leaders even question the justification of massive US aid to Pakistan in the name of fighting militancy and terrorism. A Bill in the US House of Representatives requires the US President to certify Pakistan’s commitment to fight terror to enable that country to receive $300 million of the US assistance. White House, being very sensitive to the issue, sent Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher to Islamabad to convey the proposed offer of $750 million of economic assistance to Pakistan in coming years.

In other words, Washington dangled both carrot and stick to President Musharraf to sternly deal with the resurfacing of the Taliban forces and al Qaeda sympathizers. But just at this time, President Musharraf miscalculated his move and removed the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on the ground of some questionable allegations of abuse of power. This sparked off angry protests in the streets of Pakistan. Police raid on a television news channel apparently in response to coverage to anti-Musharraf demonstrations added fuel to the fire.

Many commentators believe that Musharraf simply wanted to remove a judge who was distancing himself from the present regime and who could sit on judgment over developments in the crucial election year of 2007. Musharraf clearly wants a human rubber stamp in the office of the Chief Justice. The President himself sees a conspiracy against him.

The fact remains that all disgruntled elements in Pakistan have begun to take advantage of this volatile situation. The militants, religious extremists, marginalized political groups and Taliban sympathizers are ready to do anything to ensure the removal of the military regime.

Musharraf’s unchallenged leadership appears to be coming to an end. The inability of the Pakistani army to extend control over the Afghan refugee camps, Waziristan and other regions of the North West Frontier Province, the rising rate of cross-border movements of militants along the Afghan-Pakistan border; increasing terrorist incidents in Pakistan, including suicide bombings; and President Musharraf’s apparent determination to hold on to power all have contributed to the prevailing mess in Pakistan.

Truly, Pakistan today finds itself at the crossroads. India needs a very watchful eye from across the border. The future of Pakistan may be marked by a return to democracy and end of the military rule or it could be stronger repressive rule by the current regime. The future democracy, however, may not be stable and continuing autocracy may not be desirable.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)