Round The World

New Delhi, 13 March 2007

Russia Decries US Move

Missile Defence Shield in Europe

By Monika Chansoria

School of International Studies, JNU

The controversy over the much-debated United States (US) plan to deploy a missile defence system resurfaced recently with Washington’s intentions of placing a missile defence shield in Europe. The proposed move expectedly infuriated Russia in that it considers such advances in eastern Europe that borders western Russia, altering the strategic balance in Europe.

Apparently, the US hopes to build a radar station in the Czech Republic and site interceptors in Poland, thereby extending an anti-missile shield to Europe. The interceptors would be set up in the Czech Republic, as well as forward operating radar at an undisclosed location in the Caucasus. Moreover, Washington maintains that the new part of the shield that is expected to be fully operational by 2013 would not only protect the East Coast of the US, but also many of its European allies.

Though the US has already built missile interceptor sites in Alaska and in California, it needs to expand into Europe to counter growing threats from further afield. Thus, Washington wants to build a bank of 10 interceptors in Poland from 2008 in order to shoot down missiles that might be fired from countries such as Iran with whom US has been on loggerheads for quite a while now vis-à-vis Tehran’s ongoing nuclear weapons programme.

The issue of the proposed US missile shield could well hog much of the spotlight of the forthcoming European Union (EU) Summit with the plan to establish a radar station in the Czech Republic and an underground missile silo in Poland being sharply criticized by Moscow wherein Russia is questioning the real intentions behind the installation of such a system on its doorstep and has promised to take action to counter its effects. Going by this argument, Poland and the Czech Republic could well be at the risk of becoming potential Russian military targets if they go ahead with plans to host bases for a US missile defence shield.

Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced the US plan as a threat to national security. Earlier, while addressing the Munich Conference in February 2007, the Russian President accused the US of ignoring international law and of imposing its own rules on other countries. Moreover, Putin said he did not trust the US claims that the deployment of missile defence systems in Europe was intended to counter threats from rogue states such as Iran, reiterating that America would trigger an “inevitable arms race” if it deployed interceptors in Europe to knock ballistic missiles out of the sky.

Furthermore, the Commander of Russia’s Space Forces, Vladimir Popovkin rebuffed the US claim since he interpreted the move as a military threat. “Our analysis shows that the deployment of a radar station in the Czech Republic and a counter-missile position in Poland are an obvious threat to us… It is very doubtful that elements of the national US missile defence system in Eastern Europe were aimed at Iranian missiles, as has been stated,” he said.

Comprehending the volatile reaction of the Russians and the potential ramifications of this move, Czech Republic representative Karel Schwarzenberg and Poland’s representative Anna Fotyga tried to downplay the heated debate by stating “…the governments are still thinking about it… that it is still at an early stage,” they stressed that the response to the US offer “could take some time” and “will be taken in cooperation with the EU countries.”

Significantly, the Czechs are not expected to have a smooth ride even on the domestic front since a recent poll indicated that as many as 61 percent of Czech population opposed the plan though the Czech Prime Minister has welcomed the US request. “We are convinced that a possible deployment of the radar station on our territory is in our interest… It will increase security of the Czech Republic and Europe,” Czech PM Mirek Topolanek said.

Poland has confirmed that the US wants to negotiate the use of its territory to build part of its missile defence base. Furthermore, Poland expressed “the intention to open negotiations on the project, at the same time noting that all agreements must contribute to the security of Poland and of the US, and thereby to international security.” The missile interceptors, to be set up at a cost of up to $ 2.5 billion (1.9 billion euros), would not carry warheads and would rely on speed to destroy their targets at extremely high altitude.

The Bush Administration has been trying to get the message across to the Russians that they have nothing to fear from a missile shield, and the Europeans need to look not to the past, but to the future in which the missile threats are quite different than those of the Cold War years.

These sentiments were echoed by the head of Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, Henry Obering when he said: “…Iran, accused by the West of pursuing nuclear weapons, already has missiles that could reach some NATO allies and by 2015 could threaten the United States,” he said. However, Obering also stressed that Russia had no cause for alarm, “We would not have chosen Poland or the Czech Republic if our criteria were to try to somehow offset the Russian ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) advantage,” he added.

The US missile shield, which is designed to repel ballistic missile attacks launched by ‘rogue states’ or terrorists [in the post-9/11 scenario] has been one been one of the cornerstones of the George W. Bush Administration with President Bush making missile defense one of his Administration’s top priorities, giving it prominence in policy, funding and organization. Crucially, President Bush made missile defense a precedence earmarking nearly $18.5 billion to be spent by 2009.

According to the National Missile Defense Act of 1999, “It is the policy of the United States to deploy as soon as is technologically possible an effective National Missile Defense system capable of defending the territory of the United States against limited ballistic missile attack (whether accidental, unauthorized, or deliberate) with funding subject to the annual appropriation of funds for National Missile Defense.”

Therefore, a doable spillover effect of this US missile shield in Europe could see Moscow placing multiple warheads on ballistic missiles that now carry only one. As Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated once, “It will cost almost nothing to put new warheads… on existing missiles such as Topol – M ICBM.”

Given the current perspectives, it is not surprising that countries such as Russia and China view unilateral US efforts to build a NMD as a threat to their own security and to the regimes and norms in which they have invested considerable resources. Deployment of an NMD is also associated with the loss of credibility of their deterrent capability.

Even though the US propagates a heightened perception of threat in putting forth the case for the rapid deployment of the missile defence layer, the American determination to operationalize a missile defence system might threaten to throw the traditional concept of nuclear deterrence out of gear and spark an arms race in the region.---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)