Political Diary                                      

New Delhi, 8 October 2010

Foreign Policy Cauldron

DANGER SIGNALS IN S. ASIA

By Poonam I Kaushish

Wanted a Perry Mason or Fredrick Forsythe. Sooner the better. To unravel the latest security situation in India’s neighborhood. Vitiated by Pakistan’s shocking bolt-out-of-the-blue demand for a plebiscite in Kashmir under UN auspicious. And, muddied further by China increasingly spreading its “super power” tentacles in the region ---- albeit silently and stealthily. What to speak of US’s diktat: Resolve Kashmir to join the UN’s high table ---Security Council. Please contact the Government of India, New Delhi.

Before you accuse me of making a mountain out of a molehill, the harsh truth is that grave dangers lurk not only in our backyard, but engulf us all around. Take China first, which astonishingly does not get adequate attention from our Pakistan-US centric ruling deities and their advisors.

True, on the face of it are relations are presently “good”. There have been a spate of high level visits this year, the ‘Chindia’ synergy was visible at the Copenhagen Summit on climate change last year and in global trade issues. But New Delhi seems to conveniently forget the enmasse pin-pricks and actions which it can only afford to ignore at its peril. Notwithstanding, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's remark that China “is entering into the South Asian region in a concerted manner.”

On Kashmir, Beijing has emitted mixed signal vis-à-vis India’s sovereignty, causing New Delhi much mortification. After issuing stapled visas to Kashmiris’, invitation to Hurriyat leaders to visit China, massive infrastructure projects in road/railway, hydropower plants etc (over $20 billion) in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the northern areas (Gilgit-Baltistan), expansion of the Karakoram highway linking Tibet with Pakistan’s Gwadar port, denying visa to the Army GoC-in-C Northern Command on the plea that his jurisdiction included J&K. It has now asserted that it considered Kashmir’s northern parts as parts of Pakistan, underscoring its tilt for “all-weather friend.”

This combined with the reported presence of over 11,000 Chinese troops and missile silos in Gilgit and Baltistan and Beijing’s plan of selling new nuclear reactors to Islamabad in clear violation of international guidelines significantly changes the security environment for India. Implicitly, Beijing seems to be re-evaluating Kashmir’s strategic value. Today, China occupies about 43,180 sq km (20%) including Aksai Chin and Sakshgam Valley ceded by Pakistan in 1963.

Not only that. By getting Islamabad to agree to unfettered right to the Gwadar naval port China intends creating a permanent geographical wedge between India and Pakistan, along-with having access to Western shores. Simultaneously, it has upstaged India in Afghanistan and bagged rail contracts which would connect it to ports in Iran and Pakistan as also Uzbekistan in Central Asia.

More worrisome is China’s "more than normal interest" in the Indian Ocean region. With the Indian Ocean becoming the most important waters in the 21st Century, Beijing wants to be a major player in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese “string of pearls” around India is finding firmer anchorage fast. Starting at Hainan, China’s southern-most province with its submarine bay; it has a listening post at Coco islands, Hianggyi, Khaukphyu, Mergui and Zadetkyi Kyun port facilities in Myanmar; Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka  Chittagong in Bangladesh to Pakistan’s Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.

Further, it intends appending this string to the continental mass of Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Already a direct highway and waterway links China’s southern Yunan province to Myanmar’s Yangon port providing direct access to the Bay of Bengal. In effect, Beijing has surrounded India around its frontiers, except Bhutan where we remain the favoured partner. Thus, many believe Beijing poses a serious challenge in the short and medium term.

Why China alone, look at the Clearly, President Obama seems to have adopted Democrat predecessor President Clinton’s infamous ‘pat with a slap’ policy. On one hand US talks of its expanding ties with India as an “affair of the heart" rooted in common values, shared aspirations. And cajoles New Delhi to make viable for US companies the stringent Nuclear Liability Bill which puts the onus on suppliers in the event of a nuclear mishap. Even as White House describes Obama’s forthcoming visit as a “defining moment” in Indo-US history.

On the other, the US President has issued a decree:  Kashmir settlement-for-seat at UN Security Council.  Camouflaged in ritual diplomatese to help bring stability to the region. According to Foreign Ministry sources, Obama personally has decided to give an US push, albeit discreetly, by announcing incremental American support for India's candidature during his India visit next month, depending on New Delhi's receptiveness on the K word.

An insight into Obama's thinking comes from renowned US analyst Bob Woodward's new book "Obama's War" in which top US policy-makers are shown mulling on defusing the Kashmir situation as part of an exit strategy for the US from the Af-Pak theatre. "Why can't we have straightforward talks with India on why a stable Pakistan is crucial?" Obama is reported as musing at one meeting. "India is moving toward a higher place in its global posture. A stable Pakistan would help."

Inherent in this, is the idea that settling Kashmir would mollify Pakistan, where hardliners are using the unresolved issue as an excuse to breed an army of terrorists aimed at bleeding India. Reportedly, Obama is backing Pakistan's deposed military leader Pervez Musharraf solution: The Line of Control would become the international border, but it would be a soft, permeable border, allowing Kashmiris on both sides to move back and forth.

However this is anathema for Pakistan, given that for the ruling troika seeped in military tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith. In fact, the very creation of Pakistan rests on the foundations of Kashmir. From Bhutto’s “bleeding India with a 1000 cuts,” down Kargil inclusions to Mumbai’s 26/11 deep distrust and lack of confidence is apparent between the warring neighbours ravaged by history. Needless to say, both need to walk an extra mile or else the peace road will end at a dead-end.

There is no gainsaying that even as both India and US need each other. New Delhi would willy nilly accept American hegemony than one dominated by Beijing and Washington craves India’s rising economic clout and cash. But Kashmir and Pakistan continue to be the cause for Raisina and Capitol Hills distrust of each other.

Evidently, Washington wants to maintain a kind of “cooperation vigilance”, on the lines of the Kissinger thesis of the 70’s. The former Secretary of State argued that the US should “act as a guarantor of equilibrium” for which it should be prepared to play a “pivotal balancing role in Asia.” Something which Beijing adroitly seems to be busy nipping as it expands it pan-Asian horizons/ /flexes muscles in Asia. 

Till date all we have got from Beijing are sweet nothings and vague promises. The time has come for New Delhi to fashion a more real politik strategy which is result oriented. Raisina Hill has to shed deluding itself with misleading platitudes and misplaced bonhomie, inject realism and place a premium on substance and leveraged diplomacy to deal with the challenge of ambitious nations.

Be it Beijing, Washington and Islamabad New Delhi cannot afford to take any chances with what constitutes India’s national security and strategic interests and pursue them doggedly. Remember, international politics is ruthless, there are no permanent friends or foes only permanent interests with the winner taking all. As Woodrow Wilson once said:  Only a peace among equals can last. Stop being scared. ------ INFA 

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