Round The World
New Delhi, 27 July 2010
The Afghan Quagmire
ANOTHER MEET,
ANOTHER TIMELINE
By Monish
Tourangbam
Research Scholar,
School of International Studies (JNU)
Afghanistan is in dire straits. As the Taliban
increases its menacing hold on Afghan society, President Hamid Karzai’s Government
becomes increasingly tainted of corruption and is accused of being inefficient.
As the Government’s control over Afghan territory slips away, the Taliban
acquires more area of maneouver.
Many
of the countries involved in fighting the Taliban as a part of the international
coalition are already going through war fatigue, looking for the most viable
ways to quit the dangerous job at hand. Besides, the Obama Administration has
already announced a timeline by which US forces would start withdrawing, even
though various versions are being given to show that the timeline in no way
indicates the abrogation of US responsibility to put Afghanistan back on its
feet.
The
rationale behind the US
withdrawal date is to lend more urgency and seriousness to the process of
handing over responsibility to the Afghan forces. But the question is: Is this
the opportune time to give a date for the eventual withdrawal? By giving a
withdrawal timeframe, President Obama apparently wants to tell the Karzai Administration
that America
is not going to fund and fight “an open-ended war” and that someday soon a
semblance of stability has to be achieved.
At
this present juncture, in the face of continuing operation in the Taliban
strongholds, and news of an impending operation in the insurgency haven of Kandahar, the extremists
seem to be in a buoyant mood for driving the NATO forces to a point of
frustration. They have often targeted the heavily fortified Afghan Capital
almost with impunity. Amidst this conflict, the international community is
increasingly warming up to the idea to collude with the so-called “Good
Taliban” and bring it into the Afghan mainstream.
The
London Conference early this year had endorsed this concept, and India’s suspicions
about the Taliban were disregarded. Yet again, the recently concluded
international conference in Kabul
reiterated the promise of the reconciliation process, whereby moderate elements
of the Taliban would be roped in to join the country’s political mainstream.
The
fact that the Indian Government had cultivated good relations with the Karzai Government
along with the huge inflow of aid to the reconstruction program did not
translate into concrete dividends in influencing the international deliberations
towards Afghanistan.
But, it is worthwhile remembering for
the major players that compromise and conciliatory policies would be the last
thing in the mind of the Islamic extremists and the Taliban during their
tyrannical rule of the country. Which has always been synonymous only with
extreme cases of despotism and barbaric extremist policies.
In
addition to this re-integration programme that has been a subject of acute
debate and divisions, President Karzai has set another deadline of his own for
taking over the responsibility of securing the country. His timeline is 2014 for
Afghan forces to completely take over the responsibility of providing security
to the country. “I remain determined that our Afghan national security forces
will be responsible for all military and law enforcement operations throughout
our country by 2014,” Karzai told the attending delegates during the
conference.
The
international community endorsed the plan but at the same time made it known
that the plan would depend on the readiness of the Afghan forces to effectively
take up the responsibilities of security on a province-by-province basis. NATO
Secretary General Anders Rasmussen while welcoming Karzai’s plan commented, “But
transition will be based on conditions, not calendars.”
Major
security arrangements had been made for ensuring the success of the high-level
gathering. The conference ended without any major security hitches although insurgents
fired rockets at Kabul's international airport during
the night, forcing the diversion of a plane carrying UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon to Bagram air base, north of Kabul.
During the conference, President Karzai also called for international support
to distribute more development aid through the Government.
One
of the major flaws of the present campaign in the war-torn country is the severe
corruption charges made on the Afghan Government, which in turn is feeding
sympathy and support for the insurgent groups. According to sources, many donor
countries and particularly the United
States have been reluctant to entrust total
authority over the funds to the Karzai Government because of these accusations.
Presently, they are known to distribute
most of their aid through international development groups or contractors.
Importantly,
this is a critical juncture of the engagement in Afghanistan, when the resolve of
the international forces are being tested to the maximum. Moreover, there has
been a change in the US command structure, with the much-famed General David
Petraeus (known for favorably turning around the Iraq War) taking over the
reins in Afghanistan. As the US
forces takes on the Taliban in its strongest havens, there is an increasing
reiteration of the need to rely more on local forces, equip and train them so
as to transfer responsibility.
For
this to happen, the Afghan Government in Kabul
should make its presence felt in the far-flung provinces of the country.
Wherein, ‘making a presence’ does not translate into autocratic provincial Governments,
knee-deep in corruption and totally immune to the dire conditions of the local
populace. Such frustrations with local governance are the very fodder on which
the Taliban insurgency feeds.
It has been a long time since the Afghan
people have really known any semblance of governance in the proper sense of the
term. With the Government machinery meant to provide security and
administration to its people becoming ineffective, the Taliban has come to fill
the power vacuum.
Thus,
before going forward with implementing the plans of reconciliation and
responsibility transfer, the Karzai Government needs to introspect and win back
the confidence of its people and the international donors. The drug trade that
substantially funds the Taliban insurgency has to be curtailed. However, in the
absence of a serious policy to deal with this resourceful menace, it would be a
stiff task to contain the insurgency. Notwithstanding, that the Karzai
Government plays a primary role in the long-term process in the pursuit of
normalcy.
It is not yet certain as to how the Afghan Government,
with the support of many international players, will go about implementing the
policy of reintegrating the Taliban’s “moderate” elements. But if it does go
ahead, strict conditions should be laid down to determine how certain
insurgents would be deemed fit to join the mainstream. Which is easier said
than done.
The
Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen reportedly
cautioned that talks with the Taliban could only be successful once the coalition
and Afghan forces shift the balance on the battlefield. "I think we've got
be in a position of strength. We're just not there yet," he commented.
Finally,
look at the paradox. The ground conditions in the war-torn country are so complex
that the coalition forces are required to fight the dreaded Taliban and at the
same time expected to win the hearts of the Afghan people. All in all, one hopes
the endgame does not mess up Afghanistan’s
already worse situation. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
|