Round The World

New Delhi, 28 April 2010

Delhi Stopover

KARZAI INDIA’S BEST BET

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

It would be stating the obvious to say that Afghanistan is vital for the stability and security of South Asia. If Afghanistan fails, the region fails. The course of events has not been encouraging there with the Taliban confident of driving the NATO forces to war fatigue. Besides, plans being hatched among international players to collude with the so called “Good Taliban” do not sound very promising either. 

This is a crucial juncture in Afghanistan’s search for stability and security and an important test for India’s regional diplomacy. New Delhi should deploy its entire diplomatic might to raise its influence in the proceedings in Afghanistan for India’s own interests and for the betterment of the Afghan people. At present, India’s soft power is evident in the volume of assistance given towards the reconstruction of the war-torn country, resulting in India having to suffer some serious casualties in recent times.

India’s activities in Afghanistan have been a constant source of irritation for the Pakistani establishment, insecure and suspicious that increasing Indian influence might be inimical to its own influence in the region. The nightmarish rise of the Taliban yet again as a viable political force in the future of Afghanistan should not be good news for India, or for that matter any other country in the region.

But, Pakistan as evident from history has other plans. The Pakistani military and intelligence having been actively involved in the creation of the Taliban at the first instance see this ultra-conservative Islamist group as a favourable force to Pakistan’s interests. It is apparent that the Pakistani establishment wants to install in Kabul a power structure cooperative of its game plan, which will in turn spawn other anti-India activities in the region.

President Hamid Karzai’s short stopover in New Delhi en-route to the SAARC summit in Thimpu, Bhutan is a significant gesture that should further the camaraderie that the New Delhi  shares with his establishment. It should serve as a further vindication of India’s soft power influence and encourage New Delhi to continue and accelerate its humanitarian activities in Afghanistan, keeping in mind the safety and security of Indian lives.

The Karzai visit served as a platform for both the countries to assess the present conditions and realities of the reconstruction and the fight against terror in Afghanistan. India’s unwavering commitment towards civilian assistance to Afghanistan was reiterated and in turn, the Afghan President reassured his resolve to provide full security to the Indians working in Afghanistan.

Quite rightly, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh categorically stated that heinous attacks against Indians would not thwart India’s pledge to extend all possible help to see a democratic, pluralistic and independent Afghanistan. India has pledged $1.3 billion for a slew of reconstruction and infrastructure projects in Afghanistan.

India’s civilian activities in Afghanistan focuses on infrastructure development, human resource development, capacity building, food assistance and other small development projects aiming at immediate benefits to people at the grassroots level. During President Karzai’s talks with PM Singh, a special note was made of the Zaranj-Delaram road project, the Pul-e—Kumri to Kabul transmission line project and scholarships programmes bringing direct benefit to the Afghan people. Satisfactory attention was given to the progress being made in the construction of the building of the Afghan parliament.

A common struggle against extremism and terrorism was advocated, and India wholly supported a reconstruction process led by the Afghans and dictated by the interests of the people of Afghanistan. "The two leaders reiterated their conviction that the national rebuilding process in Afghanistan should be led by the people of Afghanistan in keeping with the principles of national sovereignty, independence and non-interference in internal affairs," read a joint statement.  

Accordingly, the Afghan President briefed PM Singh on the peace jirga, an assembly of tribal elders he plans to convene next month and the ongoing efforts to integrate those elements of the Taliban, which have no links with the Al Qaeda or any terrorist network. "We discussed the upcoming Afghanistan Peace Consultations which should comprise the people of Afghanistan, those from all walks of life, to advise on how to move forward for reintegration and reconciliation of those elements of Taliban and others who have accepted the constitution or not part of the Al Qaeda or any terrorist network," Karzai said.

The London Conference held early this year had endorsed the “Good Taliban Vs Bad Taliban” line and largely accepted the centrality of Pakistan in dealing with the Taliban. India’s concerns over unaudited dependence on Pakistan were sidelined. New Delhi has always been wary (with evidential reason) of raising the responsibility of Pakistan in the Afghan conflict.

At least influential sections of the Pakistani establishment have an apparent stake in the rise of Taliban in Kabul. A Taliban takeover will unnecessarily increase India’s strategic vulnerability. In India’s rivalry with neighbouring Pakistan, it really counts to have a neutral Karzai, if not a supportive one. India sees a feasibility problem in the plans to win over the sections of the Taliban, especially when the latter seems be able to strike even the capital city Kabul with impunity.  As such, New Delhi took the opportunity to yet again caution the Afghan leader against any power sharing deal with the Taliban.

But the political landscape in Afghanistan is complex and it will be premature to pass any verdict on the proposed Afghan Peace Consultations as of now. President Karzai is the best alternative present for India and all assistance and support should be extended to his government at the moment. Despite all his flaws and accusations of being corruption-tainted, he is still the most legitimate power-holder in the Afghan scenario with whom some meaningful cooperation and diplomatic channeling can be worked out.

Although he was re-elected in rather controversial rounds of elections, he is still the only available and by any standards a far-better alternative to the gun-flaunting Taliban who have inculcated a habit of routinely defying international law and all semblance of a civilized governance. Given the tense and insecure atmosphere amidst which he tries to maneuver, half-hearted allegiance and measures to discredit him would only embolden the Taliban.

The outcome of the Peace Consultations has to be watched but at the same time India as well the international community need to be prepared for the worst. New Delhi’s caution against power- sharing with the violent and brute Taliban need to be taken into account, and the dependence on Pakistani military and intelligence should be adequately evaluated lest the same mistakes further stuns any prospect for a normal and stable Afghanistan.

The world has already witnessed the implications of a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, and members of the international community particularly India and the US have borne the brunt of suicidal Islamist extremist groups. As such, history should serve as a lesson to help stop the recurrence of at least the preventable causes that would once again dump all well-intentioned measures into the drain. The end result would be an unstable Afghanistan ruled by aggressive fanatics, with an uncertain future on the horizon. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)