Open Forum

 New Delhi, 16 November 2007

Sonia Vs Modi

WHO WILL HAVE LAST LAUGH?

By MD Nalapat

(Holds UNESCO Peace Chair, Prof, Geopolitics, Manipal Academy of

Higher Education, Ex-Resident Editor, Times of India, Delhi)

The Congress President Sonia Gandhi is known to have a low tolerance for criticism and the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has breached that limit several times. Although a friendly Election Commission of India has sought to tone down what the distinguished Commissioners view as "abuse" (repartee that is standard in a fully democratic country), Modi has persisted in going after Sonia on every count, whether it is her policies or her origins.

In the process, while alienating those nostalgic for the days of colonial rule who want to see a "civilised" (in other words, managed) democracy, Modi has become the mascot for millions of others who regard the Congress President with distaste and suspicion. Should he win a record third term, it would have severely damaging consequences for Sonia’s Congress in the coming Lok Sabha polls.

If there is anyone who rivals George Bush in the distaste felt by the Muslim community in India, it is Modi. After the Godhra riots in 2002 that erupted in his "peace-loving" State, the Chief Minister has become the poster boy for those seeking to portray India as a land where Muslims are marginalized. The post-Godhra riots blotted the otherwise perfect communal copybook of the Vajpayee Government.

Unlike the Congress period, when riots against minorities were frequent (Hashimpura, where more Muslims were killed than in Gujarat or the 1984 Sikh riots in Delhi), the only significant communal riot that took place during the NDA rule was in Godhra. But like Narasimha Rao's Congress, which paid dearly for not saving the disputed structure at Ayodhya in 1992, ten years later, the entire record of the NDA was blackened by what happened in Gujarat.

Till date, Modi has not been able to escape from the shadow of the 2002 massacres, except in his home State where his superb administrative skills have made him almost as popular as Sardar Patel was in the past. Unlike the Sonia-led UPA, that has seen a rise in the base interest rates from four per cent to more than seven per cent and the passing of numerous restrictions that cut back the rights of the citizens in favour of the bribe-hungry bureaucrats, Modi has made Gujarat an economic powerhouse.

The growth rate in the State has crossed 16 per cent and is set to reach 20 per cent in the next two years. If he gets re-elected and remains CM till 2012, Gujarat would be twice more developed than Maharashtra, where the Congress High Command's darling, Vilasrao Patel, has made a shamble of public administration, even while keeping his political bosses in Delhi happy by means that are well-known to the intelligence agencies.

Although not even ten thousand of Gujarat's minorities are likely to vote for Modi, this columnist believes that he would win a substantial majority of the Assembly seats. This, despite many BJP leaders anger at the fact that they no longer can fatten on bribes as in the past. During the six years of the NDA rule, India was indeed shining for those close to the top BJP leaders, most of whom today have lifestyles far better than what they enjoyed in 1998, when Vajpayee took over.

Should Modi win, it would be clear to India's minorities that the Sonia-led Congress is unable to defeat an individual who is anathema to the minorities. The Muslims, in particular, would get further alienated from a Party that they already see as taking orders from George Bush on key issues.

On the other hand, should Modi get defeated, the exodus of the Muslims away from the Congress would get reversed, to the detriment of the regional parties such as the DMK, JD, TDP, BSP, Trinamool Congress etc. For Sonia to ensure that the Congress retains its current lead position in the Lok Sabha, defeating Modi is essential. Small wonder that the AICC has pulled out all stops and is using its influence in the media, in officialdom and across other fields in an effort to stop Modi from victory.

A senior editor, who is among Sonia Gandhi's most vocal backers in the media, has forecast as “Madam’s” wish, that December will see the eclipse of Modi. Should this occur, there is little doubt that the Congress would get a boost that could make it once again the single largest party in the next Lok Sabha.

On the contrary, should the Gujarat voters re-elect their Chief Minister to office, Modi would leap ahead of both Rajnath Singh and L K Advani among the saffron rank and file. The Party’s office bearers are, of course, quite another matter. Almost all have been chosen not for their competence but because they have for decades been the faithful followers of either Vajpayee or Advani.

And this makes the BJP an object of some amusement when its leaders pathetically turn towards the ailing Vajpayee to get a boost within the public. The reality is that Vajpayee has been much more popular in the English-language press than among voters, and there is a high probability that he may lose his next Lok Sabha seat, as he has done precious little for Lucknow in the six years as PM.

In contrast Sonia along with son Rahul has taken care to ensure a steady stream of benefits to the voters of Amethi and Rae Bareli, including publicly-funded projects that make zero economic sense. Recall, that despite being an effective Petroleum Minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar lost the prized portfolio because he used logic rather than blind loyalty for judging whether some projects should be located in Amethi.

Clearly, the Gujarat Assembly polls will have a significant impact both within the BJP as well as the national polity. The Saffron Sangh, still in shock over its 2004 debacle, thanks to the corruption and compromises made then, needs to win back enough voters to once again push the BJP to the top slot.

It is no secret that the Vajpayee camp dislikes Modi, who is equally unpopular with Rajnath Singh, who has the support of the former PM’s foster son-in-law Ranjan Bhattacharya. As for the Advani camp, only Arun Jaitley has good relations with the individualistic Gujarat CM, although recently Arun Shourie too has sought to establish a rapport with Modi. Moreover, the CM continues to defy the laws of politics by staying relevant despite a revolt by senior leaders and concerted campaigns by the Congress to destroy his credibility.

Importantly, Modi has wisely moved away from religious symbolism and stuck to development as his strong point in the hope that the practical Gujaratis respond well to this. Given that their State is spearheading India’s unfolding globalization scenario. Besides, unlike Laloo Yadav or Mulayam Singh, Modi speaks English and is MNC-friendly, welcoming investment from across the world.

In comparison Sonia is against Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and is behind the anti-industry, anti-middle class moves initiated by her Finance Minister Chidambaram. He has hiked the interest rates by over 40 per cent and SEBI is seeking to choke the stock market rather than seeing it as a vehicle for wealth-creation.

Thus, Modi's pragmatism stands in sharp contrast to such Nehruvian policies of beggaring the rich to curry favour with the poor. The defeat of Chandrababu Naidu had commentators speak of the unpopularity of economic reforms. A victory for Modi may witness them admitting that economic reforms are crucial for political success in a country that is increasingly young and upwardly mobile. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India New & Feature Alliance)