Political Diary

New Delhi, 22 April 2025

Language Wars

GAME OF POWER?

By Poonam I Kaushish

A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, said Shakespeare in Romeo and Juliet. A quote which underscores the war of words over language across India: Hindi vs Tamil vs Urdu vs Marathi etc. A political tongue-twister!

The decades-old spat over Hindi imposition in Tamil Nadu has erupted again. Wherein, Prime Minister Modi’s Government is locked in a bitter dispute with DMK Government accusing New Delhi of trying to impose Hindi on schools, a charge that New Delhi denies. Along-with a war of words over NDA Sarkar denying education funds to the State by using the Nation Education Policy (NEP),  as a smokescreen to push Hindi, given State’s refusal to accept the three-language formula.

Modi mocked Tamil leaders, “Ministers talk about pride in their language but always write letters to me and sign off in English. Why don’t they use Tamil language? Where is their Tamil pride?” Chief Minister Stalin replied with an ominous warning, “Don’t throw stones at a beehive…Don’t aspire to see the unique fighting spirit of Tamils.”

Questionably, what’s the spat about? Is Modi Government’s trying to force Tamil children to learn Hindi? Why is Hindi so divisive in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra ? What do all have against Urdu?

Succinctly, the dispute is all about the NEP, introduced in 1968 and updated in 2020. The original policy mandated a three-language formula. Hindi-speaking States in Northern India were required to teach Hindi, English and a third Indian language in school – preferably a language from Southern India. Non-Hindi-speaking States needed to teach local language, Hindi and English. Tamil Nadu’s neighbouring States also speak Dravidian languages like Telugu, Kannada and Malayalam.

The idea behind the three-language formula was to push Hindi as a link language in a country which is home to the world’s largest pool of languages. The Constitution recognises 121 languages, including 22 as official. While, Hindi is widely spoken by 520 million (43%) Tamil, fifth in place, is spoken by 69 million (5.7%) people.

When revised 2020, the Education policy retained the three-language formula but allowed more flexibility for regions to choose three languages, with at least two being Indian. But even that is unacceptable to Tamil Nadu, because it never accepted the three-language formula. Only two languages, Tamil and English are taught in schools.

Ditto Maharashtra where language continues to be a sensitive issue. The State Government's move to introduce Hindi as a compulsory third language for primary classes in Marathi and English-medium schools has touched a raw nerve. Opposition Congress and Thackeray's Shiv Sena have voiced strong objections against Centre's three-language policy. They want a ‘Marathi first’ policy citing Tamil Nadu’s example.  Arguing the State formed in 1960 following an agitation by Maharashtra Sangarsh Samiti which advocated formation of a State of native Marathi speakers. 

Even as the State boasts of being a melting pot of people of different cultures, States and coexistence, the reality is different. The state of coexistence is not a given, but constantly negotiated by Marathi and non-Marathi migrant residents. Add to it competition for resources and jobs often upsets the delicate balance of interest and populist politicians weaponise language to fuel resententment and polarise voters for electoral gains.

In fact, many metros --- Bengaluru, Chennai, Mumbai and Gurugram have experienced such divisive politics vis-à-vis street mobilizations and privileging of local language over other languages to legislate action for reserving  job for native residents.

Besides, in 1953, Telugu speaking people, (81 million) agitated which led to Andhra Pradesh breaking away from Tamil Nadu. That set the template for linguistic re-organisation of all Indian States a few years later. State borders were redrawn, mostly on the basis of who spoke which language.

And many States other than Tamil Nadu also opposed mandatory teaching in Hindi under the 1968 education policy. But only Tamil Nadu broke with the national decree and pursued a two-language formula – Tamil and English.

Today, Urdu too has ignited a controversy. Supreme Court while hearing a petition challenging Urdu’s use on a municipal building’s signboard and whether it flouted ‘Rajbhasha’ Marathi observed, “The prejudice against Urdu stems from the misconception that Urdu is alien to India. This is incorrect. Urdu, like Hindi and Marathi is an Indo-Aryan language. It’s a language born in this land.”

Undoubtedly, the ruling highlighted the Constitutional right to linguistic diversity but also emphasized Urdu’s integral role in India’s syncretic cultural and intellectual heritage. Increasingly viewed through the narrow prism of identity politics that considered Urdu to be an Islamic import, there has been a push back against Urdu. In February, Urdu was noticeably absent in UP’s list of languages for translation in Assembly’s proceedings.

Critics argue, “Bluntly, language has always been a major fault line in our polity which has also shaped the contour of our federalism. Worse, language is a game of power, the power to impose your code or language. It’s not about communication. Like, you don’t know this language therefore you have less power than me.”

Pertinently, the three-language formula was not ever put in place keeping children’s education in mind but to address speakers who refused to accept Hindi imposition. Adding, Centre is supposed to represent India and all of its myriad languages but its focus is primarily n pushing Hindi.

 “Government is investing and promoting Hindi. Example: All Government’s schemes bear Hindi names: Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana etc. Also it has a dedicated Hindi Division to promote Hindi overseas, including translations, speeches and statements through embassies. It plans to send 3000 Hindi teachers to Northeastern States, where Hindi is not common”.

Other argue for treating all recognized languages as equals and against the imposition of any one language as official or national.

Realistically, while most non-Hindi speaking States taught Hindi, most Hindi-speaking States picked Sanskrit as the third language which is not in everyday use any more , though it is being taught in schools as it is a high-scoring subject

However, one fails to understand the brouhaha about Hindi as under NEP 2020, Hindi is an optional third language for non-Hindi-speaking States, not mandatory --- that too for the first time. The Government insists it promotes use of non-Hindi languages. Regional languages, including Tamil are used for in examinations for Central administration jobs.

Remember, language is not religion. It does not represent religion. Language belongs to a community, region and people. Language is culture. Rather than drawing a dividing line all languages should be celebrated as a meeting ground, an oven tapestry of ideas, culture and people.    

As a Hindi poet said, “Majdhaar mein naiya dole to maanjhi paar lagaaye, maanjhi jo naav duboye useh kaun bachaye? (If boat shakes midstream, boatman takes it across, if boatman sinks boat, who will save it?)

Clearly, the histories of States need to be kept in mind as Centre engages with their Governments which refuse to yield any inch on language. Aspiring for a monolingual existence is a fraught idea which militates against India’s political and Constitutional history. More so, in a unipolar and multi-language world.

The big challenge is to balance linguistic sub-nationalism with Unitarian demands of the nation- State. Both can co-exist in a federal system. The periodic and perhaps, inevitable rise in tensions need to be negotiated in a give-and-take spirit as also within principles outlined in the Constitution.  Will all abide? ---- INFA           

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 15 April 2025

Karnataka Caste Census

POLITICS TURNED ON ITS HEAD

By Poonam I Kaushish 

The caste genie unleashed by our polity nearly three decades ago bared its poisonous fangs again in Karnataka whereby casteism is the cause célèbre. No matter its manifestations are complex --- sometimes visceral, at other times insidious giving further impetus and widening caste divide. Who cares? 

Chief Minister Siddaramaiah presented a copy of the caste census Socioeconomic Educational Survey (SES) 2015 by Karnataka State Commission for Backward Classes (commissioned 2014 during his previous tenure) to his Cabinet which will discuss it Thursday. But a leaked copy is a hot potato if its’ data is to be believed. 

Rub  your eyes, Muslims are Karnataka’s single largest community 12.87%, next Scheduled Castes 12% with politically and economically powerful Veerashaiva Lingayats 11.09% third, Vokkaligas10.31% fourth, Kurubas 7.38%, ST 7.1%, ST Valmiki-Nayaka 30,31,656 (5.07%).

Brahmins are just 2.98%,  Jains 0.70%, Christians 1.44%, OBC (others) 2.96%, Devangas 1.05% among 167 castes surveyed including Badagas with 32 members and  0.56% having ‘no caste.’ The survey covered 98% rural and 95% urban population, totaling 6.35 crore of which 37 lakhs were left out for unknown reasons.   

Armed with this, the State Government’s plans increasing OBC reservation from existing 32% to 51% and ‘backward’ Muslims from 4% to 8%, totaling 73.5% including 15% for SCs and 7.5% STs over 50% Supreme Court’s capping, stirring a political controversy. 

Even as Siddaramaiah promises to place census in the Assembly  justifying it “essential as none had been conducted since 1931 despite Supreme and High Courts repeatedly asking State Government to provide empirical data to better understand socio-economic conditions of various communities.” 

Predictably, this has changed political equations, ruffled feathers of community leaders threatening their political dominance and divided Congress on caste lines with angry netas calling it “unscientific and bogus” urging Government to junk it. Lingayat leaders accused the Commission of “undercounting Lingayats.” “We will not accept this report under any circumstances. We will appeal to Government to conduct a fresh caste census.” 

Vokkaligas yelled blue murder. If accurate, this data suggests Lingayats and Vokkaligas are significantly overrepresented in Constitutional bodies. Currently, over 50% MLAs belong to these two communities. 

Other brazenly said “increase reservation even if it leads to Government fall.” Resentment is rife even amongst Brahmins which could outweigh political benefits Congress might gain from OBCs as they are not a cohesive group. 

Besides, if the report is released, it will need to be backed by strong political, administrative, and welfare measures, which would be a major challenge. “The census has become a political dilemma for Siddaramaiah. It is hot ghee, he can neither spit it out nor swallow it,” said another leader. Thereby, turning Karnataka’s caste-ridden politics on its head. 

The beleaguered Chief Minister feels he is untouchable, safer in his chair till the decision on census implementation which might take a year or two. Also, he is supported by Kurubas as he is one and it would reconsolidate his AHINDA (minorities, backward classes, SC/STs) alliance, further giving Congress a strong political platform to stop BJP-JD(S) in their tracks. 

The BJP retaliated accusing Congress of minority appeasement trying to leverage caste for political gains. Calling Siddaramaiah  “villain who has stooped low, it seems he has dictated the report. No way are Muslims majority community.” Gowda’s JD(S) is cautiously following developments while OBCs are upbeat as it would completely change Karnataka’s socio-political scene in their favour. Not a few feel Government has thrown a stone at a beehive. 

Congress’s central leadership avers caste census goal is OBCs welfare. Sic. It’s a ploy to divide Hindu votes on caste lines to weaken BJP. Said a senior leader, “Caste census would open another flank and create problems for BJP. The axis would be pro-Modi vs anti-Modi and we will try to mobilise OBCs. This will be Mandal 2.0, different from Mandal 1.0 which involved aggressive OBC mobilization.” 

Fueled by Mandalistation, politics, is now polarised on caste basis with elections being fought on caste considerations. Voters are regressively but decisively voting along caste lines. After all, why should Brahmins and Thakurs, only 15% of vote-bank, rule the roost? Plainly, political consciousness terminates at the caste level today. 

Besides, a caste census would help address historical injustices and discrimination, be useful in formulating appropriate policies to target Government welfare schemes and policies ensuring they reach intended beneficiaries. Thereby, giving the rootless down-trodden a new identity and attitudinal changes. 

Sadly to gain vote-banks none have paid heed to the Frankenstein they have unleashed. Failing to realize politicisation of caste is a double-edged sword. Caste needs politics as much as politics need caste. When caste groupings make politics their sphere of activities they get a chance to assert their identity and strive for power and position. 

True, none can fault granting equal opportunities to all. But whether this would translate into equal outcome is debatable. Questionably, will not caste further fractionalize national politics. BJP hasn’t taken any position as it could pose a big challenge to its Hindutva campaign which would cause its vote-share to fragment, even as it tries to consolidate different castes in under Hindutva. 

Further, conducting a caste census could lead to political risks. An enumeration of OBCs in a census would provide not only hard data about their numerical strength in different States but also help examine OBC share in State institutions specially judiciary, educational establishments which are controlled and monopolized by social elites giving Dalits and Bahujan groups miniscule presence. 

It could lead to demands for increased representation and reservation for these groups potentially disrupting the existing power dynamics and political representation. Resulting, in new political consciousness among socially marginalized groups, consequently initiating a new movement for social justice which could marginalize BJP. 

Conversely, the more demands for caste surveys are raised, there is an equally greater opportunity for BJP to package it as ‘divisive agenda’ against their ‘national unification call’ centred around Hindutva. Any wonder UP Chief Minister Yogi has declared Sanatana Dharma as the only religion to counter caste survey. No matter this could open a Pandora's box. 

Currently, BJP sees OBCs as two blocks --- dominant and non-dominant, upper and lower. It intends to woo dominant castes like Yadavs, Kurmis, and Kushwahas in Bihar and UP and Vokkaligas in Karnataka. Any sub-categorisation will close doors on these sub-castes and make Mandal 1 progenies Akhilesh, Lalu and Nitish stronger in their communities. 

Anti-caste thinkers assert a census is important to understand the granular effect of caste on education, employment, economic attainment levels and inter-generational mobility. Arguing as caste is a socio-economic reality having hard data on its impact is the only way to frame policies. Eliding the effect of caste skews scales even more against marginalized groups. 

Clearly, in the Kafkaesque world where caste identity is sticky baggage, difficult to dislodge in social settings and where caste vs caste fight and decide one’s fate, no Party wants to jeopordise its caste vote-banks. Wherein, the fight for getting the upper hand and votes has been reduced to politics of optics and perception, underscoring present reality and exposes the socio-political undercurrents at play. 

Undoubtedly, the caste Frankenstein must be stopped. This is no time for mindless populism of social group politics as it will only further divide people on caste lines and increase the chasm between haves and have-nots. If Bharat has to reach its pinnacle of success it cannot revel in petty politricks. ---- INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 8 April 2025

Wakf Act

MOUNTAIN OUT OF MOLEHILL

By Poonam I Kaushish 

Phew! As Delhi simmers in rising heat wave, it is better than political stewing on the contentious  Mussalman Wakf (Repeal) Bill, 2025 which became law yesterday after a long, intense and heated debate in Parliament over Government’s aims to significantly reforms Waqfs in governance, transparency and efficiency of its properties with Prime Minister Modi calling it a “watershed moment.” 

However, critics disagree by arguing the Government’s lack of knowledge of Waqf’ which is rooted in Islamic laws and traditions. It refers to an endowment made by a Muslim for charitable or religious purposes such as building mosques, schools, hospitals etc. Waqf property is inalienable, cannot be sold, gifted, inherited or encumbered. Therefore, once a property is divested from Waqif  it vests in God as per Islamic belief so it is ‘Waqf property’. 

Government cites lack of transparency in Waqf property management, proper accounting and auditing of Waqf properties, administrative inefficiencies, mutation of Waqf land records, irrational power of Waqf Boards to declare any property as Waqf land based on their own inquiry, innumerable prolonged litigations including encroachment related to Government land declared as Waqf. 

Think. In 2013 there were 10,381 pending cases, today it is 21,618 cases over 58000 properties, inadequate representation of stakeholders in Central Waqf Council and State Waqf Boards and insufficient provisions for women’s inheritance rights 

Even as the Government aims to streamline management, promote social welfare, gender and class inclusive, Opposition yell blue murder accusing Modi Sarkar of encroaching on domain of faith, violating rights and promoting State overreach. trying to reshape the socio-political landscape, read Muslims, through a majoritarian agenda which would have wide-ranging ramifications for Muslims and their rights to equality and religious freedoms guaranteed by Article 14,25 and 26. 

Already Congress and DMK have moved Supreme Court against the Act as it spreads hatred against Muslims. There are rumblings within JD(U) with five senior leaders quitting as State readies for polls October on grounds that the enhanced role of State authorities in Waqf administration impinges on the right of Muslim community to manage its institutions. 

Muslim clerics argue Waqf is not a secular institution as its goals and purposes are linked to religion. When management of Hindu shrines restricts holding of office to only Hindus, why are non-Muslims being nominated to Waqf Boards but bars them from creating a Waqf or donating property to a Waqf? What is the need to change Waqfs nature and administration? 

In addition the Act discriminates against Muslims by imposing restrictions which are not part of the governance of other religious endowments. For instance, while Hindu and Sikh religious trusts continue to enjoy a degree of self-regulation the enactment disproportionately increases State intervention in Waqf affairs. 

Primarily, the changes would remove key protections for Waqf properties by shifting key decision-making powers such as dispute resolution and Waqf status declarations, from Waqf Boards to Government officials. This could directly impact the management and funding autonomy of madrassas and other educational institutions operating on Waqf lands. 

The inclusion of non-Muslims as Waqf Board CEOs and members has also drawn concern over the erosion of community control in sensitive areas such as curriculum, religious instruction, and institutional governance. But Home Minster Amit Shah bluntly tried unsuccessfully to calm fears that the Government would steer clear of religious practices and faith but seeks to ensure proper utilisation of charitable endowments. 

Adding, by preventing misuse and illegal occupation of Waqf lands it would boost revenue for Waqf Boards, allowing them to expand welfare programs whereby funds could be allocated to healthcare, education, housing benefiting economically weaker sections alongside regular audits inculcate financial discipline and strengthen public confidence in Waqf management. 

Is the Opposition making a mountain of a molehill? Or is Government is overreaching and trying to interfere in religious beliefs? The former more likely. With the India Bloc falling apart with Parties traversing their own path, each Party is taking a nuanced position to appease their votebanks. For regional satraps like SP’s Samajwadi and RJD besides their own community support they bank on Muslims. Ditto TMC. The BJP tweaked the Bill keeping its allies JD(U) and TDP’s sensitivities in mind. 

Viewed through the prism of contemporary politics, Congress is caught in a bind. To keep its ‘limited’ minority vote banks intact it decided to oppose the Act asserting “it undermines Muslim community's religious autonomy. Sic. Worse, it is worried of losing Muslim support as many battle Waqf Boards in land or property dispute. In Kerala it could lose its traditional vote bank Christian community’s as many are upset that the Party disregarded the Church’s appeal to vote in favour of the Bill. 

By introducing  “restrictions on the creation of Waqfs based on duration of one’s religious practice is unfounded in Islamic law, custom or precedent and infringes upon the fundamental right to profess and practice religion under Article 25,” underscored a senior leader. 

Undeniably, the Act addresses systemic flaws within the Waqf regime. More than a mere amendment, this enactment presents a paradigm shift. Waqf management is an administrative task not a religious ceremony. The Act safeguards Muslim rights and offers tangible benefits to them through efficient governance and resource management. 

Example: Under Section 40 of the 1995 Act Waqf Boards wielded unchecked power to claim properties without justification thereby clogging judicial dockets which the Sachar Committee 2006. By abolishing this Section and transferring adjudicatory powers to District Collectors with a 90-day appeal window in High Courts it reduces litigation time. 

Moreover, critique of inclusions of non-Muslims on Waqf Boards fails the Article 15 test as it prohibits bias solely on religious grounds. The Act governs administration which is a secular task. Also the 12-year cap on litigation will help decongest courts, clarify titles and stimulate economic activity ensuring Waqf  9.4 lakh acres serve the community. 

Further, previously Waqf funds were diverted to private coffers. By stipulating that only those practicing Islam for five years may constitute a Waqf would channelize resources to upliftment and curb misappropriation. 

History tells us The Mussalman Wakf Bill originally enacted during British era was replaced  post Independence by the Waqf Act 1954 which provided for the incorporation of Waqf Boards at State level and a Central Waqf Council at the Central level. But with Waqf administration falling into decadence in 1990s Government enacted the Waqf Act, 1995 nullifying all previous laws by democratizing process of constitution of State Waqf Boards, regulated and controlled alienation and leasing of Waqf properties culminating in the Waqf (Amendment) Act, 2013. 

Clearly, the Act delivers a functional Waqf which could be a beacon of empowerment for Muslims securing their welfare with unwavering equity while simultaneously advancing prosperity. It sets a progressive and fair framework for Waqf administration in the country. 

Will the Bill indeed give a boost and better lives to poor and economically weak Muslims? Time will tell. But one thing is plain: The Centre has to address minority concerns holistically specially education and improve their quality of life and well being.   

The onus is on Government to engage with Muslim leaders and address their concerns on State oversight of Waqf land which would help negate litigation and make their management more inclusive. Building trust across the board is a first step towards successful implementation of reforms. Stop creating mountains of molehills. What gives? ---- INFA   

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 7 April 2025

Multilateral WTO Trumped

INDIA TILTS TO CHINA, RUSSIA, EU

By Shivaji Sarkar 

One man has rewritten world trade rules. Reciprocity is the name of the game. Difficult to find fault with his arguments. What you are doing to America, President Donald Trump has now decided to do to you. Cold war having gone, scope for others to play off one superpower against the other is not available. Challenging times ahead for world leaders and diplomats. The World Trade Organisaton (WTO) better self deport itself from the scene! In a world in turmoil unilateralism replaces multilateralism? 

India certainly is in a quagmire as all WTO principles and protection walls are being felled with 26 per cent tariff, 50 per cent of 52 per cent allegedly being charged by it. The reciprocal tariff is in addition to the existing one. The automobiles or parts have 25 per cent tariff and another 26 per cent are to be levied. It could hit the country’s major export pillar, the IT services. 

But that is not the peak of absurdity. In his absurd passion with world tariffs fuelled by zeal for bulldozing world order, Trump has imposed 10 per cent tariff on an uninhabited volcanic Heard and McDonald islands, one of the remotest places on earth, home to Penguins, near Antarctica, an external territory of Australia, reached by a two-week boat ride from Perth. The last visit to this man-forsaken place from people believed to be nearly 10 years ago. But data show that the US had imports of $15,000 to $325,000 machineries a year during the past five years! 

Such tariff-hit territories include Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas Island and Norfolk Island. Norfolk, a 2000-inhabited island gets 29 per cent tariff for its tiny footwear exports of $ 655,000 to the US. The islands are part of Australia leading Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese react, on April 3, a day after Trumpelling moves roiling the world, “Nowhere on earth is safe”. 

India thus is not in an unviable position. At best it can wonder whether it would still remain fascinated with the New World as the order collapses. Would it look for new trade avenues? It is trying but has not yet found a lucrative market, even as the US sinks it remains “superpower”. It knows that the US system itself has gone beyond sane moves forcing India to extend a number of concessions even in pro-Trump, or better say Joe Biden days, on agriculture and other products. More it yields, more it is being subjected to shed. 

India needs a charter for negotiating world chaos. It was once in the forefront of establishing multilateralism since its glorious Non-Aligned Movement. It has lost the edge during the 30 years of globalisation, getting closer to the US may be fascinated by its economic power, and now as Trump announces April 2 as Liberation Day, it is looking for new avenues. 

The new tariffs include a universal 10 per cent duty on all imports into the US starting from April 5, with an additional 16 per cent to be applied from April 10. The reciprocal tariff imposed is a big blow to India's exports, affecting multiple industries. Key sectors could be hit. Ranging from small to big, company revenues are likely to fall. India has a trade surplus of $46 billion. Hit by the big brother, it may slash import duties worth $23 billion on US goods, including gems, jewellery, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts. Would that soften the blow? 

India’s top exports to the US are engineering goods $17.6 billion (bn) in 2023-24, and $18.6 bn in 2022-23; electronic goods 10.1 bn and $5.7 bn; gems and jewellery $9.9 bn and $12.5 bn; pharmaceuticals $8.7 bn and 7.5 bn; textiles $9.2 bn and $9.7 bn; and petroleum products $10.10 bn and $5.8 bn. The imports are $5.2 bn petroleum oil in 2023-24 and $10 bn in 2022-23; petroleum gases $1.2 bn and $1.9 bn; petroleum coke $1.54 bn and $1.9 bn; aircraft $2.09 bn and $2.11 bn and nuts $1.02 bn and $1.11 bn. 

The new tariffs are likely to have short-term and long-term implications for overall economy, trade relations, currency markets, investments in businesses and stock markets. There is a view that compared to other countries like China 54 per cent tariff, Vietnam 46 per cent, Thailand 36 per cent, Taiwan and Indonesia 32 per cent each, impact less on India. The reality may be harsher and the industry would have to make wider adjustments, do cost cutting and reduce prices of products. 

The tariffs are likely to hit autos, pharmaceuticals and IT. Additional duties may hit hard automobiles and auto parts, cars and light trucks. Tata Motors—the parent company of Jaguar Land Rover, which exports to the US—saw its shares fall 5 per cent following the tariff announcement, while Sona Comstar, an Indian global automotive systems manufacturer, declined 4 per cent. 

The pharmaceutical sector may also come under pressure. Although specific tariff rates are yet to be detailed, the US remains a key market for Indian drug exports, and any hike in duties could impact revenue. However, pharma products have reportedly been exempted from the latest round of US reciprocal tariffs. 

Sectors such as steel and agriculture are likely to be hit, with the impact first reflected in the stock market. Indian equities may come under pressure, particularly export-driven sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT, amid fears of retaliation. It could disrupt global supply chains. 

Rising trade tensions may weigh on the rupee and dampen FDI, though domestic stimulus could cushion some of the blow. Japan’s auto sector may face export hurdles, pressuring the Nikkei. Globally, a risk-off sentiment could boost the US dollar and Treasuries. Investors should closely track retaliatory moves and sector-specific vulnerabilities. 

India’s diplomacy will be changing on the pattern summed up best by Minister for External Affairs, who in 2022 said, “This is a time for us to engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia, bring Japan into play, draw neighbours in, extend the neighbourhood and expand traditional constituencies of support.” China may emerge as a friend and the US may not be a foe in the new order as trade diversifies.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)