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Round the World
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PM’s Five-Nation Trip: QUEST FOR ENERGY & TECH, By Dr. D.K. Giri, 15 May 2026 |
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Round
The World
New
Delhi, 15 May 2026
PM’s Five-Nation Trip
Quest
For Energy & Tech
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof. of Practice,
Institute of Management Bhubaneshwar)
West
Asia is on fire, Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil sells at $120, Rupee is
at record low and India’s forex reserves are fast depleting. Above all, the
Prime Minister issues an advisory at home to cut on fuel consumption and
embrace austerity. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks
on a five-nation tour from 15-20 May. Obviously, the purpose could not be other
than exploring energy and technology.
Let
us scan the agenda on the table and possibilities accruing out of this visit. Modi
intends to land are UAE, The Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy. The first
port of call on the 15 May is UAE, which is an energy life-line stop. He is
scheduled to meet the President, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Why is Modi stopping
over at UAE while visiting four countries in Europe? The context is that UAE
has just exited OPEC plus. The turmoil persists around the Strait of Hormuz and
India imports 60 per cent of its oil via Gulf. Abu Dhabi is becoming India’s
new Riyadh as Saudi Arabia becomes unpredictable, for instance, the mutual
defence treaty with Pakistan while deriding Islamabad in talks with India.
The
expected deliverables from UAE could be several MoUs as indicated by Ministry
of External Affairs. The MoUs will include LPG cooperation, strategic petroleum
reserves, fuel supply chain guarantees and IMEC fast-tracking; Italy wants its
ports as ‘Gateway to Europe’. Modi will seek to build on New Delhi’s good
relations with Abu Dhabi leveraging 4.5 million Indians in UAE, and India’s
close partnership with UAE in strategic grouping like I2U2.
The
second stop is the Netherlands between May 15-17. Here the pitch consists of
semi-conductors and water diplomacy. Modi would meet his counterpart, the Dutch
Prime Minister Rob Jettel, King Willen-Alexander and Queen Maxima. Currently,
the Netherlands is India’s fourth largest investor at $55.6m cumulative FDI.
The bilateral trade stands at $27.8b. New Delhi is expecting to cut deals on
green hydrogen, semi-conductors, water and defence. Interestingly, from tulips
to chips – Dutch are now India’s gateway to ASML – Advanced Semi-conductor
Materials Lithography, a world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making
Lithography machines. ASML is viewed as the crown jewel of European tech. It is
also a gateway to Europe’s deep teck.
From
17-18, Modi will be in Stockholm, Sweden. This is his second visit to the
country after 2018. He is scheduled to meet his counterpart PM Ulf Kristersson.
The expected engagement in Stockholm includes a European Round Table for
Industry with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,
discussion on AI, green transition and resilient supply chains. In fact,
Stockholm is where India-EU FTA hits the factory floor. Following the FTA,
Europe wants Indian market as India would like Swedish clean-tech.
Next
stop is Norway between 18 to 19 May. Norway is Arctic and has blue economy.
This visit is historic as it happens after 43 years by any head of Govt of
India. Modi will meet his counterpart of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre and King
Harald V. Modi will participate in third India-Nordic Summit on May 19. Nordic Union
consists of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. The discussion
expected will include green hydrogen, blue economy, defence, space, and India-EFTA
Trade Pact operational since October 2025. The point to note is that Oslo is
India’s Arctic entry. The other common interests include climate, critical
minerals and keeping China out of SVALBARD, an archipelago in the Arctic Ocean,
midway between mainland Norway and North Pole, an exotic Northernmost part of
the world with a small human habitation.
The
last leg of the tour is Italy between May 19-20. Here the discussion will be
focused on IMEC plus defence collaboration. Modi will meet Prime Minister Georgia
Meloni. New Delhi and Rome have signed a Joint Strategic Action Plan,
2025-2029. Rome wants Italian ports to be the final point for IMEC’s entry to
Europe. Defence deals with Italy appear to be high on the agenda after the
Italian Defence Minister’s visit to Delhi just recently. To quote the famous
proverb, ‘Rome was not built in a day’, but IMEC may be built sooner. From the
point of view of geo-politics, Italy needs India to balance China in Mediterranean.
Perhaps
we can discern three big themes that would inform and inspire this trip. One
the search for energy security which equals to national security doctrine in
many countries. In 1973, India learnt that oil shocks topple governments. In
2026, Modi is flying about 25 hours in five days to make sure that it does not
happen again. The second theme is the need for technology following India-EU
FTA finalised in January 2026. Modi would be asking Netherlands for
semi-conductors/ASML access; from Sweden and Norway, green technology, AI, blue
economy and from Italy defence technology.
Given
India’s foreign policy strategy, New Delhi will not pick between US chips and
Chinese solar. It seems to be building a third stack – Dutch machines, Swedish
green, Norwegian hydrogen and Italian ports. The third theme is drawn from the
premise that Diaspora plus disruption calls for diplomacy. For instance, 4.5
million Indians are in UAE, Norwegian pension fund operates in India. As I
wrote in this column last week, when Delhi’s political wrangles influence
Kolkata’s votes, Modi knows Abu Dhabi’s oil becomes Mumbai’s inflation. So
these treaties indicate that foreign policy is conducted for domestic peace.
Let
us recall that Churchill flew to Tehran in 1943 during the Second World War.
Crisis diplomacy cannot be successful through phone or Zoom calls. It has to be
executed by visits and talks across the table. Modi’s five-day visit could
bring some relief for 1.5b people threatened by crude oil at $120. Modi is
doing that through this trip by fixing fuel pipelines, chip partnerships and a
new grammar of strategic autonomy. Modern India should rise by sea-lanes,
supply chains and strategic friendship. Will Modi lay the foundation for a new
India through this five-nation tour?
In
the international politics, an axiom goes, ‘foreign policy is a reflection of
the domestic compulsions, imperatives and aspirations’. Just before the trip,
Modi has dropped enough hints about the challenges the country will be facing
mainly in energy consumption. The opposition parties are demanding an update on
India’s economy. Modi is flying out to the five countries to explore solutions
to address the challenges. The country sincerely hopes that he succeeds. We
will return in this column a week later to assess the outcomes. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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TN Rises, WB Moves Up: CHALLENGES FOR NEW GOVTS, By Shivaji Sarkar, 11 May 2026 |
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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 11 May
2026
TN Rises, WB Moves Up
CHALLENGES FOR NEW GOVTS
By Shivaji Sarkar
India’s economic geography is changing
rapidly. The gap between states that build industry, attract investment and
create jobs and those trapped in political confrontation, debt and
administrative drift is widening sharply. Even in growth, the contrast is
visible between Tamil Nadu and West Bengal.
The new governments in 2026, would have
challenges in both the states. Tamil Nadu has emerged as one of India’s
strongest economic powers, ranking second in the country by Gross State
Domestic Product (GSDP). West Bengal, once India’s industrial and intellectual
centre, now is at the sixth position, while Kerala, despite its social
achievements, is increasingly facing fiscal stress and slower growth.
The gap among states is in a narrow range.
Gujarat has total GSDP of Rs 33.25 lakh core, Tamil Nadu Rs 28 lakh crore, West
Bengal between Rs 18 and 21 lakh crore.
Interesting to note that even under TMC, West
Bengal was projected to be a major growth engine in Eastern India, with its
GSDP expected to grow by 7.62 per cent in FY26. Growth is driven by a strong
services sector (55 per cent of output), tech hubs like Bengal Silicon Valley, and rapid EV adoption, aiming to
become a top-three state economy within ten years. Low per capita income is its
problem.
The story is not merely about statistics. It
is about governance, investment climate, political priorities and the ability
of states to adapt to a changing economy. Tamil Nadu today represents one model
of growth. West Bengal represents another reality of missed opportunities.
Tamil Nadu’s economy is driven by
manufacturing, automobiles, electronics, ports, renewable energy, textiles and
technology services. It has built strong industrial ecosystems around Chennai,
Coimbatore, Hosur, Tiruppur and Salem. Global firms continue to invest in the
state because of infrastructure, skilled labour, industrial culture and
relative administrative stability.
The state has become one of India’s biggest
electronics and semiconductor hubs. Automobile manufacturing remains a
backbone. Technology and services are expanding steadily. Even political
rivalry in Tamil Nadu has largely remained development-oriented compared to
many other states.
Its economic rise is not accidental. Tamil
Nadu invested for decades in education, public health, industrial corridors and
social welfare while simultaneously building an environment favourable to
manufacturing. The state developed ports, highways and urban infrastructure
much before many others realised their importance.
West Bengal’s trajectory has been very
different. Despite its strategic location, major ports, natural resources and
rich intellectual history, Bengal has struggled to regain industrial strength
lost over decades. Political turbulence, labour militancy in earlier decades,
land conflicts and administrative uncertainty weakened investor confidence.
The state still has enormous
strengths—Kolkata remains a major urban and cultural centre, and sectors like
services, small manufacturing and logistics continue to survive—but large-scale
industrial expansion has lagged behind states such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra,
Gujarat and increasingly even Assam.
Per capita GSDP growth in Bengal and Kerala
has often remained below 5 per cent in recent years, far weaker than many
faster-growing states. Bengal also faces a high debt burden, limiting the
government’s ability to spend aggressively on infrastructure and development.
Kerala faces similar fiscal pressures. Despite
impressive social indicators in literacy, healthcare and human development,
Kerala has increasingly struggled economically. The state has been placed in
the “aspirational” category in the NITI Aayog Fiscal Health Index 2026 because
of weak fiscal indicators and rising debt concerns.
Its economy depends heavily on remittances,
tourism and services. But global uncertainty and changing migration trends are
creating vulnerabilities. Rising welfare expenditure and debt servicing costs
are also straining state finances. The contrast with Tamil Nadu has therefore
become sharper.
Tamil Nadu combines welfare with production.
Bengal and Kerala increasingly appear trapped between welfare commitments and
weak revenue growth. Tamil Nadu’s politics, despite sharp competition, largely
revolves around governance, welfare delivery and development claims. Political
parties compete over jobs, investments, social schemes and infrastructure.
In Bengal, politics has increasingly become
conflict-driven. Polarisation, street-level confrontation and prolonged
electoral battles dominate public discourse. Administrative attention often
appears consumed by political survival rather than long-term economic planning.
Industrialisation debates remain unresolved. The memories of Singur and
Nandigram still haunt Bengal. Land acquisition remains politically sensitive.
Investors continue to worry about policy uncertainty and political volatility.
As a result, many industries prefer southern and western states.
The situation has become more politically charged
after the 2026 assembly elections. The BJP’s aggressive rise in Bengal reflects
not only ideological expansion but also growing concern over unemployment,
migration and lack of industrial opportunities. Large sections of Bengal’s
youth continue to migrate to southern and western India for jobs.
Ironically, many migrate to Tamil Nadu
itself. It’s industrial success has attracted workers from across eastern
India, including West Bengal, Bihar and Odisha. This migration itself reflects
the changing economic balance within India.
Another important difference lies in
governance culture. Tamil Nadu has built relatively stronger administrative
systems for industrial approvals, exports and manufacturing support. Bengal
still struggles with bureaucratic delays and political interference
perceptions.
Infrastructure gaps also matter. Tamil Nadu
has stronger industrial corridors, logistics networks and export systems linked
to global supply chains. Bengal’s ports and connectivity provide huge
potential, but modernisation and execution remain uneven.
Kerala faces another challenge—limited land
availability and high labour costs—which constrain large manufacturing
expansion. Debt is becoming a serious issue for both Bengal and Kerala. High
borrowings reduce fiscal flexibility. More government money goes into interest
payments rather than productive investment. Welfare schemes become harder to
sustain without stronger revenue generation.
Tamil Nadu also carries debt, but its larger
industrial economy gives it stronger capacity to manage finances and attract
investment. This does not mean Tamil Nadu has no problems. It faces urban
stress, water pressures, rising inequality and political uncertainties. But its
economic foundations remain stronger.
Bengal still possesses immense untapped
potential. Its location near Bangladesh and Southeast Asia, access to ports,
educational heritage and cultural strength could support a major revival if
combined with industrial reforms and political stability.
Kerala too has opportunities in knowledge
industries, tourism, healthcare and green technologies if it improves fiscal
discipline. But the economic map of India is clearly shifting.
The old dominance of some states is fading
while new industrial centres are emerging. Southern India, particularly Tamil
Nadu, continues to consolidate its economic lead.
For Bengal and Kerala, the warning signs are
clear. Welfare politics alone cannot sustain long-term prosperity without
production, investment and employment generation. The future belongs not merely
to politically loud states but to economically organised ones.
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
Top of Form
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PEOPLE’S POWER ASSERTS IN ASSAM, By Inder Jit, 14 May 2026 |
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Rewind
New
Delhi, 14 May 2026
PEOPLE’S POWER
ASSERTS IN ASSAM
By Inder Jit
(Released on December 21, 1985)
People’s power has again expressed itself
decisively in Assam. The AASU, led ably and courageously by Mr Prafulla Mahanta
and Mr Bhrigu Phukan, and the AAGSP, led by Mr Biraj Sharma and others, which
spearheaded the agitation against the foreigners, have been voted to power in
the Assembly poll in the shape of the newly-formed Asom Gana Parishad. I raised
the matter at the national level in my column on December 4, 1979 entitled: Assam
Is Not For Burning. I wrote: “People’s power has asserted itself magnificently
in Assam. Most people outside Assam have little idea of all that has happened.
About a fortnight ago, Assam witnessed for six days an unprecedented mass
satyagraha in the finest Gandhian tradition. Lakhs of Assamese courted arrest
to demand postponement of the poll until the aliens’ issue was satisfactorily
resolved. What precisely is the issue? Briefly, the Assamese people are
fighting for their identity and survival against what an Indian citizen of
neglected Assam described as ‘an undeclared invasion of their State by lakhs of
foreigners’.
The then Prime Minister, Mr Charan Singh and
the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Y.B. Chavan, chose to go ahead with the Lok Sabha
poll. However, the election could be held in only two of the State's 14
constituencies. Mrs Indira Gandhi acted within two days of her taking over as
Prime Minister early in January 1980. Dr S.D. Sharma was rushed off to Guwahati
as her special emissary. On February 2, Mrs Gandhi and Giani Zail Singh, then
Home Minister, met the Assam students' delegation. An accord was reached in
principle. It was broadly agreed that “no election will be held in Assam until
the names of all foreign nationals are removed from the electoral rolls”. But
the agitation leaders soon discovered that what had been agreed was “old hat
wrapped up in familiar official jargon”. The accord failed to answer five basic
questions. Who are the foreigners? How are they to be detected? When will they
be deported? When will the electoral rolls be revised and the postponed poll
held? How will the Assamese be enabled to preserve their identity, culture and
heritage? Trouble erupted again and continued.
The backdrop is necessary to understand the
basis of the historic accord reached in the early hours of August 15 last, the
latest poll and the future of the State and, indeed, of the region. Various
explanations are being offered for the triumph of the AGP and the debacle of
the Congress-I. But one basic fact stands out, as emphasised by an astute
Congress-I campaigner in a candid talk last week: “We were not fighting a
political campaign. We were fighting a movement. Yes, a movement which was
charged with passion and great deal of emotion.” Switching over briefly to
Hindi after a pause, he said: “Khoon bola hai” -- and asked: “How do you
expect the people and some leaders to forget all the excesses, including rape
of dear ones in front of their eyes?” The vote was undoubtedly earned by
erstwhile AASU and AAGSP leaders through six years of struggle, sacrifice and
suffering. However, the 1977 Janata wave also holds a parallel on one score:
the people’s anger. A Congress-I leader recalled how he had cautioned Mrs
Gandhi prior to the 1977 Lok Sabha poll: “Madam, we can fight the Opposition
parties. But how do we fight people’s wrath?”
Assam has traditionally been a Congress-I
State. The party bagged 10 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in 1977 even when the
Janata wave swept the Hindi heartland. But the Assamese people were forced to
sit up when in September 1978 the then Chief Election Commissioner, Mr S.L.
Shakäher, sounded an alarm. He not only expressed concern over the continuing
influx of foreigners into the region but warned that unless the influx was
stopped the foreigners might come to dominate the region. The fat was in the
fire when preparations were undertaken for a Lok Sabha byelection from
Mangaldoi in mid-1979. These showed that some 45,000 foreigners were on the
electoral rolls. Objections had been raised against some 70,000 names. The
problem was not new. The issue was taken up time and again by Assam with the
Central leaders, beginning with Nehru himself. New Delhi repeatedly promised to
deport the foreigners and end the infiltration. But little was allowed to be
done by deep vested interests. The foreigners provided the Congress-I with
convenient and reliable vote banks. Meanwhile, quid pro quo continued and so
did infiltration.
Assam’s youth and intellectuals hopefully
waited for the State’s political leaders to move in the matter. But nothing
happened. AASU then stepped forward and so also the intellectuals under the
banner of Assam Gana Sangram Parishad. Initially, the movement posed a dilemma
for a State which was Congress at heart. But before long it involved almost the
entire Assamese population, Even the latest poll appears to have posed a
predicament for many, including the youth, as reflected in a significant aside
to the unfortunate episode in which the helicopter of Mr Amitabh Bachchan was
damaged by AGP’s young volunteers. One of the students, who was among those
hurling stones, came up to Mr Bachchan, thrust a note into his hand, rejoined
the crowd and again started hurling stones at the helicopter. The note, which
saddened Mr Bachchan, read: “You are one of our super stars. We love you and
admire you. When you were fighting for your life, we sat up all night and
prayed for you. But we have sworn to fight for our survival and for the AGP. We
are today opposed to the Congress-I. You should not have come. Please go away.
We still love you.”
This brings us to a crucial question which is
being asked widely: how regional and parochial is the AGP? I am afraid the AGP
is in this case more sinned against than sinning. As I ventured to submit on
Doordarshan’s national network as the anchorman for the special election
telecasts, the AGP cannot in all fairness be dubbed as a regional party in the
generally understood sense of the term like the Telugu Desam or the DMK or the
AIADMK. Undoubtedly, the AGP is restricted to Assam and has a limited regional
base. But its main plank is still the foreigners’ issue and implementation of
the Accord even as it stands for the State’s speedy economic progress and a
better deal for its long-neglected people. AASU and AAGSP
clearly rendered great service by raising a
vital national issue and compelling the Centre to shoulder its constitutional
and moral responsibility on the question of foreigners. The AGP can be likened
closest to Sheikh Abdullah’s National Conference, a party with a national and
secular outlook. This is not to say that regional parties like Telugu Desam
lack nationalism and are anti-national.
The Assamese are traditionally nationalist
and secular in their outlook and approach. They are essentially polite and peace
loving They are inclined to take life easy and largely believe in “lahe lahe
–slowly slowly”. But once roused they can be very tough and invincible as shown
by history. The Mughals mounted 17 invasions of Kamrup, as Assam has been
traditionally known. But they failed to conquer the State. In fact, the great
Mughal General Mir Jumla, met his waterloo at the hands of the great Ahom
General Lachit Barphookan, whose famous saying, which has relevance even in
today’s India, is inscribed in letters of gold on the entrance of Shillong’s
beautiful Raj Bhawan. Said the General: “My Uncle is not greater than my
country.” (Lachit Barphookan had his own uncle beheaded for turning a traitor
and joining hands with Mir Jumla.) The word “foreigners” has been deliberately
distorted to confuse the issue. The Assamese are opposed only to the
foreigners, not the Assamese Muslims and outsiders from elsewhere in India, who
include large numbers of Biharis, Nepalis, Marwaris and Punjabis.
Not many today know or remember that Assam
almost went to Pakistan as a Muslim majority province but for a hard struggle
put up by one of its great sons and freedom fighters: Gopinath Bordoloi.
Eventually, Sylhet, a predominantly Muslim majority area was detached from
Assam Province, as the State was then known, and given to Pakistan -- and Assam
enabled at Gandhij’s instance to continue with India. Those who live in Sylhet
and many who have infiltrated from erstwhile East Pakistan or Bangladesh, it is
said, have not given up their dream. In fact, not a few knowledgeable people in
the region have heaved a sigh of relief over the majority secured by the AGP.
Prof G.G. Swell, who is a former Deputy Speaker of the Lok Sabha and hails from
Shillong told me on Friday in Parliament’s Central Hall: “The United Minorities
Front was hoping this time to be a deciding factor. Thank God, the AGP and its
leaders, who are nationalists, have won a majority. Otherwise, the whole of the
north-east and its affairs may have been influenced or even run by remote
control from Dacca. The danger is real and it behoves us to take serious notice
of this.”
Where do we go from here? Fortunately, both
Mr Mahanta and Mr Phukan have spoken in the right accents and idiom and, what
is more, carry sober and sensible heads over their young shoulders. They have
also the benefit of sound advice from Mr Dinesh Goswami, whose triumphant
return to the Lok Sabha should help greatly strengthen the Opposition and
Parliament, and others. (The Lok Sabha will also stand to gain greatly by the
election of Mr Shahabuddin, Janata’s General Secretary, and the return of Mr
Somnath Chatterjee of the CPM. Importantly, the Press has been largely unfair
to Mr Shahabuddin. He won his poll on a socialist and secular platform and,
according to his solemn word, “did not even once refer to the Shahbano case”)
The AGP Ministry will need to take the earliest opportunity to do two things.
First, reassure the genuine minorities as against illegal immigrants that their
interests are safe. Second, take the earliest steps to implement the Assam
Accord which has received the overwhelming support of all sections of the
Assamese people barring those who have voted for the UMF and have other
designs.
The UMF leader, Mr Golam Osmani, has already
thrown a challenge at the AGP. He has reportedly announced that the UMF will
oppose implementation of the Accord. The supporters of the UMF may have reason
to feel let down by the Congress-I against all that they had to suffer in
supporting the party during the 1983 election. But Mr Rajiv Gandhi showed statesmanship
in hammering out the Accord and in agreeing to dissolve the Assembly, based on
a poll which was illegal, unconstitutional and immoral, and order fresh
elections. But the challenge thrown by Mr Osmani is not only to the new State
Government. It is even more so to New Delhi. The challenge must be met jointly
by the Centre and the State Government and some joint framework evolved for
speedy implementation of the Accord. Thought must also be given to tomorrow ---
and infiltration ended. The State has already suffered greatly over the past
six years. It’s time to open a new chapter. The UMF and its supporters should
not be left in doubt on one score. Assam, as I wrote six years ago, is not for
burning or for gifting away!-- INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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BJP All the Way: WILL IT MEET PEOPLE’S HOPES?, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 13 May 2026 |
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Open
Forum
New
Delhi, 13 May 2026
BJP All the Way
WILL IT MEET PEOPLE’S
HOPES?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The formation of the governments of the BJP
in West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry after a spectacular victory reiterated once
again the fact that the party, with all its drawbacks, has been successful in
mobilising public opinion towards good governance and upholding intrinsic
Indian values through propagation of Hindutva. The unanticipated number of
seats that BJP captured in Bengal and the absolute majority in Assam despite the
anti-incumbency factor, are indeed notable achievements. All predictions
regarding the BJP getting the number of seats in Bengal were belied as the
party surged ahead with a two-thirds majority, winning 207 seats, which even
most party insiders and analysts did not quite expect.
In Modi’s third term, the striking story has
been the receding space of regional parties, particularly in Eastern India –
BJD in Odisha, TMC in Bengal and even the AAP in the national capital. Defeats
of TMC in Bengal and Congress in Assam show that a successful opposition to the
BJP must go beyond narrow identity-centric narratives. In fact, the
saffron party has been successful in integrating its own Hindutva with broader
nationalism, thus allowing ambitious politicians from non-RSS streams to join
in.
In Bengal, the biggest news was the defeat of
the former chief minister, Mamata Banerjee at the hands of BJP leader Suvendu
Adhikari, who has been made the new chief minister. The two factors that were
responsible for dislodging the TMC government are known and may be attributed
to corruption and joblessness along with a profound sense of hopelessness. The
subsidies dished out failed to win the confidence of the people, particularly
the youth.
The BJP’s aggressive campaign over minority
issues and the issuance of land deeds to the families of tea plantation workers
in Assam helped the party consolidate its traditional support base. The
Opposition failed to set up a strong narrative around an alternative agenda of
governance. Not just in Bengal but in Assam too BJP’s stunning victory raises
concerns about increasing polarisation.
The credit for the victory in these states
obviously goes to the image of Prime Minister Modi who is considered a father
figure of the saffron dispensation. Whether the projection of Modi or the
marshalling of the ground-level RSS workers or the disgust with the
corruption-laden TMC in Bengal helped the BJP in its outstanding victory in the
state or whether all these factors together in routing the ruling party here
will be analysed by political scientists in the days to come. Union Home Minister
Amit Shah also put in a lot of effort by gearing up the organisational
machinery and uniting all groups and factions within it.
It is good to hear that Modi has repeatedly
referred to the late Dr. Shyama Prasad Mookerjee and rightly stated that the
party’s victory in Bengal was the fulfilment of his vision. He expressed the
hope that the state would emerge as an industrial state, as envisioned by the
first chief minister, Dr. B. C. Roy. Whether the template of industrialisation,
which once found manifestation here, will witness a resurgence with Bengal’s
inherent strengths remains to be seen but the new government has vowed to make
this true.
Critics may say that the results show
consolidation of Hindu votes, but the so-called secular parties have done
little for the Muslim community over the years – neither by educating them and
bringing them into the mainstream of life and society or even by projecting
religion in the right manner. Mamata’s minority appeasement faced a backlash
and her last-minute initiative to construct temples did not go well with the
people.
Despite people’s mandate to the BJP, there’s
a need to analyse the saffron party’s performance. Though it has done lot of work in developing
the physical infrastructure, the work in the social infrastructure segment
remains much to be desired. The health sector has been neglected as most states
do not have funds to equip the sub-divisional and block hospitals with the
Centre not taking any initiative. However, it’s good to hear the Central scheme
of Ayushman Bharat, which was resisted by the TMC government, will be
implemented in the state at the first cabinet meeting. In education, the
situation is the same with the BJP government not coming up with at least one
model school in every sub-division.
However, in recent years, there has been some
change in its outlook towards the marginalised sections that is the tribals,
the OBCs and the Dalits. But funding for state universities, more scholarships
for research, ensuring a free atmosphere in higher educational instructions and
giving them power without State interference remains to be done. It can’t be denied
the party has done little for impoverished and marginalised segments and
uplifting their conditions.
The main challenge for BJP in Eastern states
would be providing employment opportunities to the youth and improving workers condition
in the informal sector. This indeed is a herculean task but it’s expected BJP
will come up with the right strategy of promoting labour-intensive sectors. Unfortunately,
some of the finest scholars, including engineers, doctors, managers etc. are
leaving the state as employment opportunities don’t exist and they are building
careers in Bengaluru, Mumbai, Hyderabad and even abroad. The electorate has
voted for this to end.
The Eastern sector, including Bihar and
Odisha will all be ruled by the saffron party, which needs to weave a
proper strategy. Already Odisha is showing spectacular results, and the Centre
is focussing its attention on that state, which a few years back, was
considered backward.
Another big challenge which the BJP, at least
in Bengal, will find success is the rooting out corruption from the grassroots
to the upper levels. Honest officers, both in the administration and in the
police, will have to be appointed in key positions while in municipalities and
panchayats there has to be rigorous monitoring of corrupt dealings and
practices. If corruption is brought down – and it is understood that both
in Bihar and in Odisha this has been possible, there is hope for Bengal.
However, the new BJP government has to take
over a huge debt of around Rs 8 lakh crore left over by the TMC government. Plus,
the question of giving DA to state government employees as per Central
government levels, and upheld by the Supreme Court, must be considered. Meanwhile,
the effects of US war on Iran will also affect all the states and the
possibility of inflation can’t be ruled out.
The change that is expected, not just by the
people of Bengal but also of Assam and Odisha would put a further challenge on BJP
and it must rise to the challenge by identifying the problems and fixing
priorities. A democratic system must function not from the top but from the
panchayat levels and identifying and solving the problems of the common man.
Finally, it needs to be said that where
religious demography is changing adversely for Hindus, and this includes Bengal
Assam and Kerala, BJP will probably occupy centre stage. But development also must
occur and people are eagerly awaiting whether the BJP would be successful in showing the way for a
better future. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Missing U In Unity?: INDIA BLOC GONE?, By Poonam I Kaushish, 12 May 2026 |
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Political
Diary
New Delhi, 12 May, 2026
Missing U In Unity?
INDIA BLOC GONE?
By Poonam I Kaushish
Unity in
disunity or disunity in unity? Flummoxed? Certainly, as Opposition fault lines
cracked wide open post BJP’s victory and TMC, DMK, CPM’s defeat mingled with despair
in the recent State polls. It is easy to slice, dice and analyze if INDIA Bloc
has lost its vitality? Has hit its self-destruct button? Are its days numbered?
Is time ripe for its epitaph?
Today, the Bloc seems fragmented after
defeats in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala which might exacerbate it further.
At the storm’s centre which is threatening to shred the Bloc apart, is its
biggest constituent, Congress. Already, DMK has made plain its distrust calling
it “backstabbers” after the Grand Party jumped ship to newbie TVK. More so, as DMK had rewarded it a Rajya Sabha berth last month,
resulting it no longer wanting to be seated alongside Congress MPs in Parliament.
Though DMK with 22 MPs hasn’t
formally announced its departure from India Bloc, its importance for Opposition
unity is not limited to Tamil Nadu alone, as it has consistently been a vocal
champion of ideological agendas raised by the Bloc against BJP-led NDA Government
over years. If it chooses to distance itself now, it could be the beginning of
unravelling of the platform and Congress isolation within the larger Opposition
space.
The crisis could not have come
at a worse time for Opposition with TMC losing West Bengal, DMK Tamil Nadu and
CPM Kerala which have robbed the Opposition of leaders who championed federalism,
an issue which united all in Parliament and outside. Both Southern satraps were
all for enlarging the federal structure for better federal balance and cultural
distinction. A matter, contrary to Congress’s centrist tendencies.
Today, with Kerala under its
belt, Congress holds office in three of five Southern States but it is no
longer in a pole position nationally. Hence, it should have no issue in
demanding more rights for States. But can and will it make a convincing case
for federalism the way DMK did?
Also, with footprints of regional Parties shrinking, whereby TDP, JMM and NC
are the only ones that run Governments, the crisis of federalism faces the
threat of being reduced to an academic debate.
Pertinently
the contradictions within India Bloc go back to its formation 2023. The big
tent of non-BJP Parties was conceived as a national platform and was accepted
from its initiation that Parties would compete at State level while coming
together at the national level.
Certainly,
it collectively pinned BJP to 240 MPs in 2024 polls, but the implausibility of
such a loose arrangement was exposed when regional considerations compelled JD
(U) Nitish to abandon the Bloc and shift loyalty to NDA. In West Bengal Bloc
members competed and under-cut each other. Many times Abdullah’s NC and other
groups warned that the Bloc was sliding towards irrelevance.
In fact,
Tamil Nadu’s events have further reinforced the wobbly nature of Opposition
unity which functions without a proper coordination team, secretariat or
coordinator. In this form at best it can be a nothing but a mere banner for
floor coordination in Parliament. Consequently, it has lead to bad blood, disquiet and realignment.
There are strong indicators
that the Bloc is facing an existential crisis and could break into two or more
formations, giving the Modi-led NDA a distinct advantage and scope for
manoeuvring 2029 Lok Sabha polls. Asserted a senior leader, “India Bloc is gone,”
thereby sounding the first note of death knell of Opposition unity.
Clearly,
a reset would require Congress to prioritise long term coalition building over
short-term electoral priorities. The Tamil Nadu events have injected a crisis
of confidence and trust within the Bloc that will not be easy to address and
overcome. With 7 States set for Assembly elections next year the future looks
bleak for Opposition unity.
Paradoxically,
the imminent disintegration of Opposition unity brings both joy and grief for
the Grand Old Party. The Rahul Gandhi-led Congress has reasons to cheer the
downfall of a whimsical and temperamental Mamata and Stalin’s defeat for two
diverse reasons. In Bengal, Congress thinks it has a notional chance of revival
and is hoping a TMC section ‘comes home.’
Given, daggers are out within State leaders blaming Mamata’s coterie for
their downfall. Also things have gone sour between Mamata and nephew-heir
Abhishek Banerjee.
Given BJP’s penchant for splitting regional
outfits: AAP, Shiv Sena and NCP, Congress feels it's just a matter of weeks, if
not months, before TMC starts seeing a heavy exodus.
There is no gainsaying that political loyalty cannot be static: When people
realise that their interests are not being served, the “hegemony” breaks down
and loyalty shifts toward new, alternative ideologies. In Tamil Nadu’s context the
shift is towards actor Vijay's ideology of social, secular justice.
It remains to be seen whether Mamata, Arvind
Kejriwal and Stalin will now close ranks to punish and isolate Congress. The
prospect of an anti-Congress front opening up hinges upon Samajwadi Akhilesh.
If the SP supremo decides to side with Mamata and DMK, Congress is bound to
suffer a big setback. There is every possibility that the new alliance would
try to rope in players such as BJD’s Naveen Patnaik, YSR’s Jagan Reddy and
Mehbooba’s PDP.
With UP Assembly polls due next year, the SP Chief has a difficult choice: Go
with Congress or alone. With no signs of
Mayawati’s BSP joining hands with SP, Akhilesh stands to gain more by aligning
with Congress rather than siding with Mamata, Kejriwal, Stalin and Co. Yet,
post the Grand Dame ditching DMK, Akhilesh is wary stating, “We are not the
ones who leave during difficult times.” As is RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav who had a complicated
relations doing business with Rahul.
In this context the disquiet and churn within
the Bloc requires a reality check. The biggest problem is
not just ideology, but leadership, seat-sharing and regional ambition. Parties like
TMC, AAP, DMK, SP, Congress and Left all want space to expand which creates
contradictions inside a single alliance.
Yet
all is not lost. Indian coalition politics is highly fluid.
Alliances often break in one State but continue nationally against BJP. Leaders
like Thackeray and Mamata still publicly speak of Opposition unity. However,
though strong as an electoral coalition with a common strategy, the Bloc today
is badly weakened. As a Parliamentary anti-BJP platform it technically, is
still alive. As a future 2029 national front, its fate is uncertain, but it is
not dead.
The Opposition will have to find the language
and repertoire that can match BJP’s dexterity, multi-vocality, poll fighting
mean machine and resources with which it shores up its communication dominance
and perceived imagery. Modi has already thrown down the gauntlet by refreshing
Hindutva, projecting and redefining nationalism and the country’s self respect.
The big question: Who will take up cudgels against
BJP beyond rally slogans? Clearly, in
this minefield of contradictions where strategies are crafted with electoral
dividends in mind forging a path ahead for Opposition will require foresight,
nimbleness and flexibility. So far the Opposition has presented a disunited
front amidst unity bonhomie. Nothing more. ----- INFA
(Copyright India News
& Features Alliance)
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