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Round the World
Court Tells Jan Sewak: NO MORE IMMUNITY, By Poonam I Kaushish, 5 March 2024 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 5 March 2024
Court Tells Jan Sewak
NO MORE IMMUNITY
By Poonam I Kaushish
Jan sewaks or swayam sewaks?
Public servants we are assert our Right Honourables. But that is only for
public consumption. Where gold speaks, their tongues are silent. Politics is a
highly lucrative business, which needs no personal capital: only the ability to
con the public that you are their ultimate messiah. A one-man company whose
cash counters keep ringing. And, which pays rich dividends to its owner
depending on the fluctuating value of his stock!
Not any more. If the Supreme Court
has its say -- and way. In a landmark unanimous judgment a seven-Judge
Constitution Bench has brutally torn asunder the political facade. Exposing our
netas in all their ugliness by overruling
its 1998 five Bench ruling that gave legislators immunity from prosecution for
accepting bribes to make a speech or cast a vote in Parliament or State
legislatures.
“We disagree with the majority judgment in Narasimha
Rao case which grants immunity to legislators as it has a wide ramifications, grave
danger and thus overruled,” said Chief Justice Chandrachud. Holding taking a
bribe is an independent crime and has no link with Parliamentary privileges and
what a lawmaker says or does inside Parliament or Assembly hence immunity from
prosecution will not shield them.
Adding, “corruption and bribery is
destructive of the aspirations and deliberative ideals of the Constitution and
creates a polity which deprives citizens of a responsible, responsive, and
representative democracy..
Thereby, discounting Articles 105
and 194 which protects MPs and MLAs freedom of speech and shields them from “any
proceedings in any court in respect of anything said or any vote given by him
in the Legislature” to enable them to work without fear of legal action. This,
the Court warned would create a section that can enjoy unregulated exemption
from law and potentially destroy functioning of our Parliamentary democracy.
Besides, the 1998 judgment had
created a “paradoxical situation” where a legislator who accepts a bribe and
votes accordingly is protected and a lawmaker who despite taking a bribe votes
independently is prosecuted.
This verdict has its genesis in Circa
July 20, 1993: A CPM MP moves a No Confidence Motion against Narasimha Rao’s
minority Congress Government. The Congress has 251 in a 528 members Lok Sabha,
but it defeats the motion with 265 votes by ‘garnering’ the 14 missing votes.
Circa 28 February 1996: Rashtriya Mukti Morcha files a
complaint with the CBI alleging that these 14 MPs were paid over Rs. 3 crore
for voting Congress.
Circa 1 March 1996: In an iconic speech JMM MP Suraj Mandal
one of those bribed by the Congress states in the Lok Sabha: “Which MP does not
take money… I know the people who have made money from the coal and iron
extracted…taken donations, money in thailis
and gathris… the CPM and JMM take
levy from people. What about petrol pumps? Even BJP is involved. Do saand ke beech bachchre ko kyon la rahe
ho?” His speech was heard in pin-drop silence. None protested. How could they? He was only speaking the
truth.
Again on Circa 22 July
2008: The Congress-led UPA Government moves a confidence vote in the Lok Sabha
after the Left withdraws support over the Indo-US nuclear deal and wins it with
a 19 vote victory (275 as against 256 of the Opposition's). Prior to voting,
large amounts of cash are displayed by three MPs. Predictably, all hell breaks loose.
A Parliamentary
Committee is set up to go into the unparallel Lok Sabha cash-for-vote scam.
Eleven MPs are expelled and the case handed to the police in January 2009.
Circa July-September 2011: The Supreme Court pulls up the
police for its shoddy investigations. Two months later, late Samajwadi MP Amar
Singh, two BJP MPs who exposed the scam and two middle men are jailed. On the
Lok Sabha’s penultimate day, Working Chairman of the NDA Advani hails the BJP’s
ex-MPs as whistle blowers and declares that if they are guilty, then he too
should be jailed. “I did the sting, arrest me,” he dares.
Circa May 2015: Telangana TDP leader
is caught on video offering bribe to a nominated MLA in exchange for his vote
in Legislative Council elections. One TDP MLA is sent to jail. But the High
Court lets him out due to “insufficient evidence.”Wring your hands all you want, but all
thre
e incidents highlight the deep malaise that affects our political system
and absence of probity at all levels of public life alongside dishonesty and immorality.
In fact, the under-belly of power politics has become more shameless, rotten,
ugly and raw to the gutter level. Victory at any cost no matter what it takes.
Forget Constitutional morality.
It is all very well for our Right
Honourables today to rave and rant, appear horrified, adopt a holier-than-thou
attitude and profess to uphold the best tenets of Parliamentary democracy. Sic.
But the moot point is: Had our MPs gone in for some soul-cleansing, taken
timely action and stemmed the rot in 1996, 2011-15 would not have happened.
But they did. Bluntly, because politics continues to be all
about money, honey. Whereby, buying-selling of votes is on auto-mode all the
time. Wads of notes are exchanged at a drop of a hat. And going to jail is fast
becoming a badge of honour! Succinctly remarked a charge-sheeted MP, “We are
only settling political scores, it has nothing to do with being corrupt or
clean. We shall be judged by law of the land. But the main verdict comes from
the electorate”. Conveniently, forgetting that an electoral victory does not
erase a legal wrong.
Alas, today we live in an era, where
public morality and practical politics has acquired a particularly grotesque
dimension whereby nine out of ten cases go unreported. Confessed a seasoned politician: Es hamam me hum sab nange hain. Na BJP mein
hain danav, na Congresss mein devta. An honest MP is one who is not
caught.”
Arguably, in a milieu wherein large suitcases are proving
too small to stuff political skeletons and in the business of democracy where everything comes for a price including
politicians, it raises a moot point: How can our lawmakers ‘sell’ their dignity
and honour for money? Worse, there is no remorse on an issue which impinges on
the essence, dignity and credibility of Parliament? When will our netagan stop their immoral dhanda? Who is the culprit in whose
eyes?
All in all, the coming days are crucial. The Supreme Court
has held a mirror. Time our politicians realize they are expected to be a notch
above ordinary mortals. Our netas need
to desist from Greed for Power and Power of Greed. Given that when an undataa becomes a saudagar , the aam aadmi is bound to become garib!
It is in the interest of healthy democracy that unhealthy
precedents are not set. Parliamentary democracy can succeed only when rules of
the game are followed honestly. Our politicians need to remember a home-truth:
Public accountability is indispensable in a democratic set-up. With power comes
responsibility.
On hopes our leaders will now chart a new dimension in
upholding the best tenets of Parliamentary morality and probity as elections
draw near. Time for our leaders to wake up from their deep slumber of self
conceit and deception of money hai to
power hai! ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Core, Farm slip; Prices Up: CONSTRUCTION A BURDEN?, By Shivaji Sarkar, 4 March, 2024 |
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Economic
Highlights
New
Delhi, 4 March 2024
Core, Farm slip; Prices Up
CONSTRUCTION A BURDEN?
By Shivaji Sarkar
India is
experiencing a robust growth rate of 8.4 per cent, paralleled by rising
inflationary trends, sparking concerns within the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Projections of economic ease appear optimistic, prompting questions about
whether inflation might impede growth or if capital expenditure (capex) could
bolster it.
However,
key concerns linger, including a dip in core sector growth and a contraction of
the farm sector by 0.8 per cent, compared to the previous expansion of 5.2 per
cent in the third quarter of 2022-23. Despite a notable rise in manufacturing
by 11.6 per cent, following a contraction of 4.8 per cent in the preceding
year, challenges persist. Despite substantial government capex, consumption
growth remains feeble, private investment continues to lag, and constructions
may be a drag.
India’s
claim of growth is accompanied by decadal cumulative inflation of 55 per cent
at 5.5 per cent a year. Rural inflation at 5.93 per cent is far higher than the
urban at 5.69 per cent as in December 2023. And less noted vegetable inflation
has touched 9.94 per cent.
The RBI
is cautious in its observations, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is
blunt on high core inflation and stresses that central banks need to keep
monetary policy tighter for longer than is current in markets. In its Global
Financial Stability Report, it says “risks to global growth are skewed to the
downside as the global credit cycle has started to turn as borrowers’ debt
repayment capacity diminishes”.
India
needs to heed to the warning. Despite RBI remaining tight fisted, it notes at
the Monetary Policy Committee report of this February that since February 2023
it has not succeeded in its effort to check prices. It means government has to
be careful on burgeoning borrowings. The country’s allocation for debt
repayment of Rs 10 lakh crore or almost 25 per cent of the central budget skews
the economic focus. The quarterly GDP growth figures touching 8.4 per cent in
third quarter against the Bloomberg estimates of 6.6 per cent, projected as
fastest in 18 months, portrays one side of the picture as simultaneously the
core sector growth slips to 3.6 per cent, a 15-month low in January.
Latest
data show eight core sectors grew slower than 4.9 per cent in December and 9.6
per cent in January 2023. The core sector consists of 41 per cent of the index
for industrial growth.
An
increased government capital expenditure outlay may do little to change the
overall investment situation as most of private firms remain reluctant to
invest more. Margins for companies have plummeted despite high sales growth and
it is apprehended that sales would decelerate.
Compared
to the 1980s when capex was high at 55 per cent, a study by Systematix group
denotes, the present contribution is on the rise at 34 per cent. It is,
however, concentrated on construction activities. It does not have multiplier
effect on the industrial sector. This affects private investment growth, an aim
of the higher public investments. A handful of companies with better liaison are
pocketing the capex extravaganza. Actual demands remain low as core sector
figures denote.
The
consumers may have to pay higher prices for natural gas after the elections
adding to further inflationary trends. The government has raised natural gas
prices to $8.2 per unit – million metric British thermal units. For consumers
the cap remains at $6.5 in the current price mechanism when the Indian basket,
was linked in April 2023. It is meant for international sale by domestic
producers.
Over Rs
10 lakh crore projects have been announced in election meetings by Prime
Minister Narendra Modi in Uttar Pradesh and over a billion more for schemes in
West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, other states, schemes for railways and
other areas. The rail projects are linked to construction of railway stations
and similar other facilities. Faster trains fascinate but are concerns for
connectivity in hinterlands.
Promises
are encouraging. Overall investments have grown on heavy borrowings of Rs
172.37 lakh crore as on March 2024, estimated to rise to Rs 187.35 lakh crore
on March 31, 2025. This has a cost push effect. The RBI notes that over the
past decade until 2022, consumer price inflation in India averaged 5.5 per cent
a year or 55 per cent in a decade. This was above the Asia-Pacific’s figure of
2.1 per cent.
The
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, which conducted Business Inflations
Survey (BIES) in December 2023, mainly among the manufacturing companies,
reports a significant increase in one-year unit cost-based expected headline
inflation. It reports an increase of 4.96 per cent in December 2023 from 4.73
per cent October 2023.
The
latest MPC notes that with elevated levels of food inflation, there is need to
remain focussed on achieving the inflation target in a sustained way. It also
observed that it could not achieve its target set in February 2023, implying
the central bank could not contain prices. Prices of vegetables, including
tomato, garlic, lemon and ginger and food grain have shot up. It affects
overall costing of all the government estimates. Overall, it dampens the growth
efforts.
Promising
investments to the people that is unsustainable have deleterious effect on the
economy. Debt pushed investments raise money circulation further spiking
prices. The populism may cause euphoria but gains to the economy are uncertain.
It could, as the RBI indicates, be deceptive. Revival of growth in consumption
demand is the key and “would require improved employment and household income
conditions.
The
consumer optimism, increased spending, as per RBI urban household survey 2-11
January 2024 is yet to reach “pre-covid19 period”. The RBI stresses that jobs and household
income rise are key to the growth of the country whatever might be the euphoric
figures of it being the fifth or third world economy. The consumer is
constrained by the gap in discretionary spending that is the freedom of
purchasing goods of their choice.
This is
also reflected in foreign direct investment (FDI) as a percentage of GDP being
restricted to 2-2.5 per cent of GDP, which is hardly sufficient as also hot
volatile money. This could be an indication that foreign companies are
circumspect.
The
country has to check inflation as it diminishes the purchasing power of
individuals that can’t cope up with unaffordable goods, services or essential
items as also constructions that could add to post-poll prices. Prudent
economic policies are necessary for sustaining growth and job creation.
Supposed global standings epaulets hardly help.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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The MSP Demand: STATES MUST AID CENTRE, By Dr. S.S Chhina, 2 March 2024 |
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Spotlight
New
Delhi, 2 March 2024
The MSP Demand
STATES MUST AID CENTRE
By Dr. S.S Chhina
(Senior Fellow, Institute of Social
Sciences, New Delhi)
Albeit the longest-ever protest from
the farming community, especially in Punjab and Haryana, which continued for about
a year to repeal the three farm laws and ultimately culminated in their withdrawal,
the demand for Minimum Support Prices (MSP) continues to simmer. Looking at the
recent ongoing protest, it is amply clear that agriculture in India needs an
overhaul right from policy to reforms in the agri-market.
An MSP is the minimum price set by
the Government at which farmers can expect to sell their produce for the
season. When market prices fall below the announced MSPs, procurement
agencies step in to procure the crop and ‘support’ the prices. The main point
of scepticism in those laws then was about the withdrawal of the government
rule to procure the products of farmers.
Even though these are only wheat and
paddy, which are the popular crops of Northern India, no other product is being
procured, though the prices for 23 crops are announced every year. Such
assurance of marketing can be given in contract farming, but the previous experience
has been dismal compared to the very successful involvement of state
procurement.
Looking at the scenario of marketing
in different countries, it can be observed that neither the MSP is prevailing,
nor the government procuring any crop. But at same time, be it either small or
big, or developed or backward country, the government is very conscious about
the price and production of the farm products.
Even in those countries which have
vast natural sources such as Canada and Australia etc., private companies are
making contracts with farmers to mitigate any volatility either in price or in
output as well as for the quantity to be supplied and the price to be charged.
But the government is monitoring the situation in the interest of the consumer
as well as of the producer to protect both in the harvest and in off-season.
Unfortunately, the situation in
India is altogether different than those countries having vast natural sources.
Indian agriculture is overburdened with population, but it happens to be the
profession of 60% of the population. Additionally, 95% of the holdings have
less than two hectares of land, therefore making those neither economically
viable nor providing full employment. Such holdings cannot take any risks for
the sale of products, produced by putting in hard labour.
While analysing farming in India, it
can be said that though the country was facing food shortage, the initial three
‘Five Year Plans’ couldn’t solve the problem. As a result, the country was
compelled to import food with several political strings attached and tapping precious
foreign exchange. The green revolution, which was ushered in the late 60s, was
the concatenation of number of factors such as new varieties of seeds, more use
of chemicals, installation of tube-wells, easy and cheap loans and road
connectivity, but foremost of all these was the MSP along with state
procurement that proved a boon.
Consequently, the perpetual rise in
area and output of wheat and paddy, which are covered under the umbrella of
assured marketing with MSP, was witnessed. By the early 70s the country became
an exporting country from its position as a food importing nation. Even the
stores fell short of preserving the produced wheat and paddy. It is to be noted
that while area and output of wheat and paddy thrived, the output of other
crops either remained stagnant or dived to a low level because of the lack of
assured marketing.
Over the past few years, concerted
efforts have been made to realign the MSP in favour of oilseeds, pulses and
coarse cereals to encourage farmers to shift larger area under these crops and
adopt best technologies and farm practices, to correct the demand-supply
imbalance. It was very much desirable to bring other crops under the cover of
state procurement at MSP, but the glitches that resonated gains of this
paradigm could not be reaped. The simple announcement of MSP for 23 crops could
not yield the desired results because it couldn’t be dove tailed with state
procurement of those crops.
The MSP, as a tool with state procurement
had delivered the desirable results, the production of wheat and paddy rose
exponentially where a number of crops in which the country was self sufficient
have to be imported and the bill for such crops thrived profusely as edible
oils were being imported worth one lakh crore rupees every year.
It would be ludicrous to assume that
the Central Government can purchase every single product throughout the
country. India has 15 different agro-climatic zones, and each zone is producing
different crops. Even in a state there are different zones suitable for
different crops. Twenty-three crops for which the MSP is announced or the
popular crops of different states and even of different districts in the same
state. The popular crops of each zone must have assured marketing.
The State Government must
collaborate with Central Government for the popular crops of the state. This is
never a losing proposition. The farmers must be given incentives to produce
more and more yield and the consumers should be protected with stable prices in
the off-season.
At the time of Independence, the
population of the country was 340 million but that thrived to 1380 million in
2020 or rose by 4.1 times, but in comparison to that wheat rose to 1090 million
tonnes from 70 million tonnes or by 15.5 times. Similarly, the production of
paddy rose to 1220 million tonnes from 260 million tonnes or by 4.8 times.
However, it was possible because of the miracle of MSP, whereas other products
fell short in production as well as area because of the lack of MSP.
While following the model of
developed countries where the Government is monitoring farm production, it is
not just staple products but even other products like potatoes, tomatoes, milk,
eggs and fruits which are being procured adequately both for the interest of
producers as well as consumers. Such a model must be adopted in all the states
and also the Kerala model of interference in vegetables prices.
The farmers producing different
crops must be registered for specific areas or quantity, to realise the
diversification. The states and even the districts should be divided in zones based
on the yield of the respective crops. Only the suitable crops of the area
should be procured at MSP. It has been observed that even the crops not suitable
to an area are being grown only because of MSP. For example, in Punjab paddy is
grown in sandy areas of Bhatinda and Fazilka only because of state procurement.
Once such a policy is adopted for
different crops, the results will definitely be very encouraging. However, it
will be more practical and beneficial if the State Governments share the
responsibility with the Central Government for the interests of the producers
as well as consumers.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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Constitution Review A JUVENILE CONTROVERSY, By Inder Jit, 1 March 2024 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 1 March 2024
Constitution
Review
A
JUVENILE CONTROVERSY
By Inder Jit
(Released on 6 March
2000)
India faces and has faced in the post-Nehru era many
crises mainly on one score. It has lots and lots of politicians, but very few
statesman. While a politician merely thinks of today, a statesman also thinks
of tomorrow. But the situation has greatly worsened in India over the years.
Sadly, most Indian politicians do not think of the whole day any more. They
only think of the moment and live for the moment --- and talk about yesterday,
not tomorrow.
This has made most of our politicians brazenly
opportunistic. Self is unabashedly placed before the country and power
exploited for personal ends. There is little attempt among most of them to
educate and inform themselves. Mere literacy is mistaken for knowledge and
wisdom. Few care to remember that a parliamentary democracy is a civilised form
of Government based on discussion, debate and consensus. Consequently, the
Opposition ignores its positive role and acts as though its only job is to
oppose.
These thoughts are prompted by a wholly unnecessary and
indeed a juvenile controversy which erupted when the President, K.R. Narayanan,
surprisingly chose valour to discretion and publicly expressed his strong
reservations against the NDA Government’s decision to set up a Constitution
Review Commission in accordance with its election manifesto. Sadly, the wrangle
has continued, fanned by unbelievable ignorance on all sides. Hardly a day
passes when the Opposition does not denounce the exercise as politically
motivated, machiavellian and designed to “saffronise” and undermine the
democratic Constitution. In fact, Sonia Gandhi has led in New Delhi a Congress
rally to protest against the review and other policies of the Vajpayee
Government.
We need to ask a few questions. Is the Congress
justified in its opposition to the review? The answer is an emphatic no. In
fact, it would have talked differently if Sonia Gandhi and her aides on the one
hand, and the powers that be and their advisers on the other were not
ignoramuses. Even as Congressmen object mindlessly to a
review of the Constitution after a reasonable span of 50 years, they are
blissfully unaware that Jawaharlal Nehru had got the Congress Working Committee
to set up a 10-member Committee on 4 April 1954 under his own Chairmanship “to
study the question of changes in the Constitution and the Representation of
People Act and to suggest amendments” in the light of difficulties experienced
by the Centre and the State Governments. That was just four years after the
Constitution came into effect!
Indira Gandhi next set up a Congress panel, headed by
Swaran Singh, in 1976 to take a good, fresh look at the Constitution and make
whatever recommendations it considered necessary for stability, development and
the well-being and happiness of the masses. It was even permitted to go into
the question whether India should continue with the Westminster model or switch
over to the presidential form of Government. That the panel favoured the former
is another matter.
The Swaran Singh panel also went into the bar imposed
by the Supreme Court on Parliament in the Kesavanand Bharati case against amending
the basic structure of the Constitution. He proposed that Parliament’s
supremacy in the matter be restored by providing that the Constitutional
amendments made by it “shall not be called into question in any court on any
ground.” The idea was, however, dropped when top legal experts cautioned that
the Constitution could well become a book of contradictions if Parliament was
allowed unlimited power to amend and upset the delicate equilibrium between the
executive, the legislature and the judiciary.
Top Congress leaders are presently talking ad näuseum
of the “basic structure” of the Constitution and how
Parliament is barred from changing it. Yet they (and even Government
leaders and their aides) are unaware that Indira Gandhi rubbished the concept
in the Lok Sabha on 27 October 1976. She said: “Revision
and adjustment in changing conditions are part and parcel of our Constitution. Those
who want to fix it in a rigid and unalterable frame do not know the spirit of
our Constitution and are entirely out of tune with the spirit of new India...
We have always maintained that Parliament has an unfettered, unqualified and
unbridgeable right to amend the Constitution. We do not accept the dogma of
basic structure!”
That is not all. At one stage Indira Gandhi even toyed
with the idea of setting up a Constituent Assembly to ensure that the Constitutional
amendments she favoured did not run into difficulty with the Supreme Court
because of the Kesavanand Bharati case. But she dropped the move once it was
pointed out that a proposal mooted in the Constituent Assembly for providing
for such a body was turned down by the Founding Fathers. Expert opinion
eventually persuaded Indira Gandhi to get Parliament to amend the Constitution
as Parliament on the ground that “there is something bigger than all of us,
that is the nation and the future.”
In my opinion, the review has not come a day too soon.
In fact, the demand for a fresh look at the Constitution has grown with each
passing year in preference to hasty ad hoc amendments totalling 70. Way back on
31 March 1974, I raised the issue nationally through a cover story in the
Illustrated Weekly, then India's leading magazine edited by Khushwant Singh,
fervently pleading for effective steps “to stop the slideback to a feudal, sham
democracy.” A welcome and heart-warming endorsement came from Loknayak
Jayaprakash Narayan who wrote from Patna: “I congratulate you on your article
on the erosion of democracy in our country.”
Another question. Can the BJP use the review to subvert
democracy and saffronise the Constitution? No way, even if it so wanted. The
BJP, indeed the NDA, lacks the strength both in the Lok Sabha and in the Rajya
Sabha to get any Constitutional amendment adopted. An amendment of the
Constitution requires to be passed “by a majority of the total membership of
the House and by a majority of not less than two-thirds of the members of that
House present and voting.” The NDA has 303 members in the Lok Sabha with a
strength of 545. It has only 84 members in the Rajya Sabha with a strength of
245. Furthermore, such an amendment has to be ratified “by the legislatures of
not less than one-half of the States. This is well nigh impossible at present.
No less astonishing and absurd are some recent
statements made by top leaders, who should know, better (or be better advised)
before speaking. Former Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar reportedly criticised
the Vajpayee Government the other day for “by passing” Parliament in regard to
the Constitution Review Commission. Sonia Gandhi, for her part, said the
Vajpayee Government appeared to be in “a great hurry to rewrite India’s
Constitution” and added: “they have not even bothered to take Parliament into
confidence.”
Yet, as we all know President Narayanan informed the
first session of both Houses of Parliament on 25 October 1999: “A Commission
comprising noted constitutional experts and public figures will be appointed to
study a half-century’s experience of the Constitution and make suitable
recommendations to meet the challenges of the next country.”
Finally, would the proposed review then
prove to be pointless and futile? Once again, the answer is an emphatic no. The exercise would still be most useful so long as it
tells us “whether it is the Constitution that has failed us or whether we have
failed the Constitution” -- and what needs to be done. The Swaran Singh
panel came out strongly against any change in the parliamentary system. But it
failed to tell us what precisely had gone wrong with the system as practised in
India and what might be done to get it to function in a clean, smooth and
effective way. Democracy, after all, is only a means to an end. Ultimately, it
must deliver and serve the best interest, welfare and happiness of our people.—INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Electoral Calculations: ALL ABOUT MODI MAGIC?, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 29 February 2024 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 29 February 2024
Electoral Calculations
ALL ABOUT MODI MAGIC?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The
battle for Lok Sabha elections 2024 is turning out both intriguing and exciting
on the political landscape of the country. The popularity of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi is reflected in his claim that he would return to office in May
with a landslide victory, with his party, BJP, winning more than 370 seats on
its own and the NDA crossing the 400 mark! The over-confidence came during the reply
to President’s address, but at this point of time when
INDIA bloc is making every effort to work out seat-sharing formulas, the figure
appears inflated. The score of 370, if at all the BJP reaches this figure, will
be the highest since 1984 when Congress rode the sympathy wave following Indira
Gandhi’s assassination.
Notably,
the BJP is going all out to emerge victorious with a big margin. A move which
is bolstered with the shift of Nitish Kumar back to the NDA along with the RLD
after Charan Singh was honoured with the Bharat Ratna and former Chief Minister
Ashok Chavan leaving the Congress in Maharashtra and may well join the
BJP. Clearly, the efforts to muster more support won’t stop here, as in
Delhi, the AAP flogs the claim that BJP is offering big sums of money to wean
away its MLAs.
Undeniably,
following the overwhelming response to the Ram temple consecration and other
such temples expected to follow suit in Kashi and Mathura, Modi’s popularity
has risen, and the NDA is eyeing regional parties for support. Political
analysts believe that the religious card is over-shadowing the economic rights
of the marginalised and backward sections, including their justified demand for
a dignified existence.
At same
time, it’s evident that BJP is seeking to win back its old allies. The Bihar effect
is being felt in other places as in Punjab and West Bengal, where the ruling AAP
and TMC have decided to go it alone respectively. Much depends on what happens
in Maharashtra and whether the seat-sharing between the Shiv Sena (Uddhav
Thackeray group), Congress and NCP is worked out well amongst all three. Latest
reports indicate that Arvind Kejriwal has decided that AAP will contest all 90 Assembly
seats alone in Haryana but shall continue to be part of INDIA bloc in the
battle for Lok Sabha.
Alliances
in the Opposition bloc are still being worked out even if there’s no alliance among
AAP and Congress in Punjab as also between TMC and Congress in West Bengal. In
Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party and Congress have reached an agreement with
the latter contesting 17 of the 70 seats. Moreover, while in Delhi, AAP and
Congress will be jointly fighting in four and three seats respectively, the situation
in Haryana is quite complex.
Recall in August 2023, the
India Today-C’Voter survey predicted the vote share gap between the NDA and
INDIA coalition had narrowed down to just two per cent. The momentum has been
somewhat lost and in its latest February survey, the lead has increased to six per
cent and the NDA seems headed for a clear majority. Modi has claimed
Congress won’t get even 50 seats!
While
many would say it’s an absurd claim, the fact that Congress President Mallikarjun
Kharge has hardly any following in the northern and eastern states may not be
totally wrong. As it appears the Congress is relying heavily on Rahul Gandhi
and his Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra, which is reportedly drawing large
crowds. Plus, grass-root leaders of the party in Rajasthan, Jharkhand and
Madhya Pradesh are expected to help the grand old party in its calculations. But
as things stand today, it would be extremely impossible for the Congress to get
a sizeable number of seats to make a claim to form the next
government.
The power
needed for a strong working alliance is somewhat missing in the INDIA bloc. One
reason being the Congress’ incapability and the results in got in the recent Assembly
elections. Though Rahul has been highlighting the right social and economic
issues that affect the impoverished and backward sections, the neglect of OBCs,
the dalits and tribals, the induction of religion into politics and the
aggressiveness of the Hindutva brigade appear to be influencing the
semi-literate masses of the northern states, where the BJP is now dominating.
It would
be pertinent to refer to a book titled Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism &
The Rise of Ethnic Democracy by Christopher Jaffrelot published in 2022
which dealt with Modi’s spectacular popularity in spite that his was a pro-rich
government, ideologically opposed to policies of redistribution, those that
worked towards a welfare State. Moreover, the violent intimidation of
minorities coupled with Modi’s authoritarianism choked democracies by elected
governments themselves beginning with Parliament and extending to the
judiciary, the media, the Election Commission, the CBI, the Lokpal etc.
Perhaps,
the pursuance of religion and aggressive Hinduism has tilted the balance in
favour of the ruling dispensation. It is indeed distressing that the country
navigated from a flawed yet hopeful experiment in building democracy with equal
citizenship of people of every faith to a place where it is increasingly
dangerous to be a minority, dissenter or even to report the truth as dissent
and protest are being thwarted, not just by the Centre but in the states as
well, West Bengal being a glaring example.
In the
present situation, even though the Modi government has been pro-rich and
favouring this section along with the middle class, the higher castes, the poor
and the lower castes appear to be mesmerised with Modi’s religious overtures. He
has portrayed himself as a saintly person, possibly the first of its kind to
occupy the chair of the prime minister. The skills of Modi, including his articulation
and gestures, seem to have had a great impact on the masses.
It is
worth mentioning that Modi’s image has been bolstered in a big way while it’s not
so in the case of Rahul. Modi’s skills of mesmerising the masses with talks of
achievements that possibly lack justification has caught on well with people
from northern, central and western India, who don’t have the real power to
analyse. On the other hand, Rahul has been focussing on basic social and
economic issues that affect the common man. His yatra, no doubt, may have an
effect, but doesn’t match either BJP’s money power or its surreptitious methods
of harassing Opposition leaders by unleashing the ED or IT agencies after them.
In this
big ensuing electoral battle, it remains to be seen whether Modi’s experiment
of a sharper thrust on religion, will get him the massive majority that he
claims to be heading towards and drastically change politics in the country. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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