Economic Highlight

New Delhi, 12 March 2021

Another Lockdown?

    PLAN JOB PROTOCOL INSTEAD

By Shivaji Sarkar

India has to learn to be in the working mode and not shut or lock itself down repeatedly. After loss of productivity, jobs and severe thaw in the economy for a year, it should have evolved a protocol to restore normal working conditions. The hits come at a time when the International Monetary Fund just predicts a possible 12.5 growth in 2022 and forecasts India as the fastest-growing economy. The second erratic closure may throw a spanner.

During the last 100 years it has suffered many epidemics but never closed down the establishments. During those difficult times all individuals and organisations came together to strive and restore normalcy. The mid 1990s Surat plague was also combated like that and the dirty city re-emerged as a beautiful clean destination but it did not shut down its business activities.

Even after nine months after the unlocking process most industries, including education, tourism, travel and even government offices have not bounced back to the usual mode. Direct and indirect job losses are hitting not only the economy but social and family lives. The minus 23.9 per cent fall in GDP during the lockdown and still speculations by national and international organisations about the growth and another bout of widespread closures and uncertainties are hitting all activities.

The country remembers that the nationwide sudden lockdown on March 25, 2020 at a four-hour notice led to 10.9 million (1.1 crore) jobs being lost and termed the worst-ever year for the job market. It does not include the trek back of at least another 10 crore migrant workers, of a supposed 18 crore, to their homes impacting MNREGA expenses.

There is no centralised data available for how many jobs were created during July-December 2020, a volatile period. In total, Human Resources  consultants estimate one million (ten lakh) jobs were added during this period. Now many of these jobs, most in irregular employment, are threatened to be lost again.

Many companies like Parle Products, Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ceat and Axis Bank have largely gone back to WFH format for corporate employees. Many others like ITC, Samsung, RPG, Dabur, Haier, Vedanta, Vivo and Panasonic have issued new guidelines to the workers. Aditya Birla group Global HR Director S Misra says that office attendance may come down to 30 per cent against the present 50 to 60 per cent. While this reduces companies’ productivity or not it does affect travel and transport, restaurant, entertainment and allied sectors.

According to CMIE, since January 2021 about 12 million additional people got jobs, the highest since March 2020. But the April lockdowns can make many of them lose it again.

The stock market is again rocked with both BSE and Nifty slipping every day, banks fretting over another spike in defaults and credit quality, and the manufacturing activity at its lowest pace in seven months restricted by COVID-19 panic. The curbs, imposed almost all over the country and beginning of a second wave of exodus of migrant workers back to their home, could dent manufacturing, core sector activities, supply of goods & services and the overall demand.

The rating agency ICRA says that bad loans of Indian banks could rise to 9.7 per cent in 2021 and 10.2 per cent in 2022 from gross bad loans at 9.6 per cent in March 2020 and 8.3 per cent in December 2020. The December decline is due to writing off of Rs 1.1 lakh crore of such loans.

A nation trying to recover is being hit hard again. Retailers Association of India (RAI) estimates retailers will lose about $5 billion in Maharashtra alone in April. It says that this State alone accounts for 10 per cent of $85 billion of India’s annual retail sales. It says that sales of automobiles, consumer durables, smart phones and apparels, which have just started recovering, will be adversely affected. Even partial lockdowns in different parts hit sales. Kirana stores across the country report that there are no major increase or customer walk-ins.

Work from home occasionally for maximum worker utilisation cannot be a permanent mode. The online mode in a poor country like India with critical cash flow in rural areas increases hardship and is devastating the education sector, largely private as income-deprived parents are unable to pay the tuition fees leading to closure of several lakh budget schools in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and many other States. They can neither afford increasing data costs nor they have connectivity nor even smart phones or laptops. The new generation feels not only deprived but also discriminated leading to a severe social divide. In Bihar, the budget school owners are up in arms against the irrational lockdowns.

The situation remains alarming as the factory activity grew at its weakest in March 2021. The Nikkei manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined to a seven-month low of 55.4 from 57.5 in February on demand squeeze. A Reuters survey says that Asia’s third largest economy despite some recent improvements is heading for the biggest risk to the outlook. The rupee is already taking a hit for national, international situations as well as severe price hike and income squeeze. The country cannot also relax fiscal deficit norms as suggested by Home Minister Amit Shah. Rising government debts may have many dangers.

The second largest populated country having a capacity to grow fast has to change its policies. It cannot force repeated closures of social and economic activities for an unconfirmed fear of a disease. Some health sector people link the new supposed surge to intense vaccination. Even the efficacy of the vaccine produced in a jiffy is being questioned as the production and testing process are yet to be made public. It is also said that pneumonia vaccine has yet not been found even after over 100 years of modern medicine. The concerns may remain though the fears are more speculative.

However, it calls for the nation and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reconsider whether every now and then the country should impose jittery closures. A protocol must be developed so that it continues its work as during war time with least of disruption during any future epidemic. Diseases surge and go but a nation has to sprint to success without closing down for a day. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 10 April 2021

Centre-States Pow Wow

MARS VACCINATION DRIVE

By Insaf

An unsavoury slugfest between the Centre and Opposition States over Covid vaccination is the last thing that the country needs to be embroiled in. Unacceptable! Allegations of vaccine shortage by Maharashtra, Delhi, Chhattisgarh,  and Punjab have not gone down well with New Delhi. “Vaccine supplies are being monitored on a real-time basis, and State governments are being apprised regularly about it,” has reacted Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan. He claimed the charges were “utterly baseless”, particularly in Maharashtra and ‘nothing but an attempt to divert attention from its repeated failures to control the spread of pandemic.’The State had said that it had 13 lakh doses of Covaxin and these would last just 3 days. Vardhan also hit out at Delhi’s request foropening up vaccination to everyone above 18 years of age saying goal posts are being changed to camouflage their poor performance in the vaccination drive. A pointer was vaccination of health care workers. Maharashtra has done only 86%, Delhi 72% and Punjab 64 per cent with the first dose. In comparison 10 States/UTs have done over  90%.

Vardhan also hit out at Chhattisgarh saying that comments of its leaders on efficacy of the Covaxin vaccine was a deliberate move to ‘spread misinformation and panic’ and that it would be better if the State government ‘focusses its energies on ramping up their health infrastructure rather than on petty politicking.’ Though he chose to single out Chhattisgarh on this front, reports say that there are at least 14 States, including BJP-ruled Goa and Himachal Pradesh, which have refrained from using a single dose of Covaxin in their vaccination drive. No words or reprimand for them? It must win confidence of all in this battle against Covid. It’s not enough to warnthat the situation is getting worse, with the country recording 13.1 million cases, and next four weeks being ‘very very critical’, and expressing ‘maximum concern’ over rival governments. It must remember the adage a stitch in time saves nine. Politics in the times of Covid is certainly not touché.

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Bengal-EC Row

Election Commission has more on its plate than bargained for. The incorrigible West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee takes it on. Two notices have been issued one after another to Didi for violating the Model Code of Conduct during rallies. One, her utterances on Central paramilitary forces, where she accused those on poll duty of functioning under Centre’s instructions, committing excesses and the EC was turning a blind eye, invited a stern rebuke. Stating these as “completely false and provocative,” the poll body has asked for an explanation by today, else she would face stiff action  as her remarks were “causing extreme demoralisation amongst the ranks and file of these forces.” Two, she was served notice for appealing to minority voters not to divide their votes between different political parties. True to her style, she shot back with: “Why is that no complaint has been filed against Narendra Modi, who talks about Hindu and Muslim (vote banks) every day? How many complaints have been lodged against those who had uttered the word ‘mini Pakistan’ during the Nandigram campaigns.” Worse, she told the EC that it could issue 10 show-cause notices, but her reply would be the same,  “I will always speak against any division of Hindu and Muslim votes.’ Predictably, all eyes are on Nirvachan Sadan how it tames the Bengal tigress, with five phases of elections due.

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Setback for MVA

There’s no respite for the Maha Vikas Aghadi government in the high profile corruption case against its former Home Minister Anil Deshmukh. It’s far from over as it had claimed last week. On Thursday last, the Supreme Court dismissed its petitionand one filed by Deshmukh challenging Bombay High Court order for a ‘preliminary inquiry’ by CBI into allegations levelled by former Mumbai police commissioner Param Bir Singh. The two-judge bench said: ‘nature of allegations, the personas involved and seriousness of allegations do require an independent agency to enquire into the matter. It is a matter of public confidence given the factual scenario…what has been directed is only a preliminary enquiry albeit by an independent agency.” Deshmukh’s counsel had argued the HC order would ‘affect federal structure’ as the State had already withdrawn general consent to CBI to probe cases in its territory. But the apex court was firm: ‘the two personas involved… were closely working together till they fell apart, both holding a particular position. Then should the CBI not investigate?...This is not your enemy who has made these allegations, but almost your right-hand man’.It also ruled out a case of ‘political rivalry’ as alleged by MVA government saying the Centre uses the CBI, not independent, just to settle scores. With that issue settled, all eyes shall now be on CBI’s preliminary enquiry. A fortnight turns out to be along harrowing wait indeed.

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Tripura Wakes Up 

Tripura seems to have finally woken up it’snot immune to the corona virus and the government is getting its act together. Now, so late? Guess, the realisation dawned only after none other Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb tested positive for Covid-19. There’s a flurry of activity and government has now issued restrictions to control the spread of virus specially in its offices. The list includes: a maximum of 20 persons can attend official meetings; they should sit at least one metre apart; must follow  protocols such as wearing of masks, carrying hand sanitizers and visitors would now be allowed entry with prior permission only.It now sees the need to order that wearing of masks or face shields are mandatory at offices and public places and anyone found not wearing a mask will be fined. Insaf recalls its visit to Agartala in early February and to its horror found that Covid protocols were hardly in place. An oft heard response was ‘there’s no Covid here!’ The north-east being ‘different’ came into play. Even in Guwahati, the response was similar. In comparison to other States, Tripura has just ‘70 people under treatment for Covid’ and the positivity rate is a mere 5.19%, as per the State Covid control room. Be that as it may, it must enforce the guidelines it has woken up to and not miss the woods for the trees. 

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No Monkey Business

It’s no monkey business, be on your guard. A warning which should go out from the Delhi police after it nabbed two robbers, who used their pet monkeys to make good by attacking people and then robbing them. The two men in their twenties were caught on Thursday lastalong with their monkeys in South Delhi. An accomplice is on the run. The modus operandi was simple: the monkeys were trained to ‘threaten’ the victims by shrieking and jumping and when they succeeded in the victim panicking and screaming for help, these men would snatch their wallets or phones.  On Thursday luck ran out. The three men had gone to a market with monkeys, who targeted a man, and the three made him sit in an auto, instructed the monkeys to sit beside him, and then robbed him of Rs 6000. But they got arrested thanks to security camera footage. It emerges that they were earning a living by playing instruments at weddings and other events. But three months ago they had a better idea. They caught the monkeys from the Tughlakabad Fort Jungle and ingeniously used them to make that extra buck. No longer as monkeying around got the better of them!---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 9 April 2021

Russian FM Visit

SEEKS TO PLACATE INDIA?

By Dr. D.K Giri

(Prof. International Relations, JIMMC) 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s two-day visit to Delhi was perhaps meant to placate India after it managed to exclude New Delhi from the one-day conference of Troika Plus on 18 March in Moscow, or to make sure that the deal on S-400 missile smoothly goes through. Or it could be a routine diplomatic act as there will be the Annual Summit meeting between the two countries sometime this year. Note that, the last year’s summit meeting was postponed, for the first time ever, as Russia tried to mediate in the China-India border face off. Whatever be the motives behind the visit, it may be in order that we analyse the impact of the visit. It is also necessary to do so, as Russia has been or has been perceived to be a friend of India for a long time, and stays as the elephant in the room in India-United States bilateral relations.

Although not much has come out into the public domain about the talks between Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, during the visit on 5-6 April, the peace building in Afghanistan was on the top of their agenda. Lavrov who was accompanied by Russia’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, is believed to have briefed his Indian counterpart about the complex peace process underway in Afghanistan. But how would have Lavrov explained keeping India out of the latest discussion at the behest of Pakistan. New Delhi has heavily invested in the development and rebuilding of war-torn Afghanistan and had also agreed to sit with Taliban, a significant departure from its earlier position.

Russia that claims to be a friend of India buckled under pressure from Pakistan or even China to keep India out. Washington has been nudging New Delhi to engage in Afghanistan and the Afghan Foreign Minister Mohammad Haneef Atmar visiting New Delhi on 22-23 March admitted that “it was a mistake to have excluded India from the Moscow conference”. What does one make of the Russian role in isolating India from the troika plus group of the countries?

Both the Ministers talked about their concern and contours of Afghanistan peace process. Lavrov underlined the need for including the Taliban as they were a part of the Afghan society. Jaishankar talked about harmonising the interests of various stakeholders active in and around Afghanistan. He emphasised, “what happens in Afghanistan impacts our security directly” and  talked about adhering to foundational principles in rebuilding peace in Afghanistan. But they are really platitudes. There is no idea in the media or in the statements emanating from the talks, if Jaishankar raised the issue of India’s exclusion in the parleys in Moscow.

On New Delhi’s part, Jaishankar perhaps used the opportunity to share his frank assessment on the border situation in Eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control. India has called upon China to disengage from all friction points along LAC following the agreement carried out in Pangong Tso. In the past, Russia had tried to mediate between India and China. At the same time, Lavrov was in Beijing in March to put up a joint front against the US. Lavrov has said on more than one occasion that formation of the Quad is an anti-China game. In this visit, Lavrov took a dig at Quad again, “I have heard of Asian NATO and Middle East NATO, Russia does not believe military blocs and alliances that are divisive”. On the other hand, New Delhi is progressively engaging in Quad.

At the time of writing this, India was joining its Quad partners-- Australia, Japan and the United States-- in the France-led joint naval exercise, La Perouse, in the Bay of Bengal from April 5 to 7. Emmanuel Lenain, the French Ambassador to India, was excited about this joint venture. In a statement in Delhi, he said, “I look forward to the La Perouse joint exercise, during which two French Navy ships will be joined by ships from India, Australia, Japan and the US for a concrete demonstration of multilateralism at sea.” This exercise is the reiteration of Quad’s commitment to a rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific, to make it open and free for navigation etc. The Quad plus exercise is to be seen as an opportunity to showcase the enormous naval strengths the five countries possess.

Another major item that would have figured in the discussion is about the delivery of S-400 missile defense system from Moscow, although both Foreign Ministers denied this specific issue coming up for discussion. Lavrov acknowledged, however, that the US puts pressure on any country that signs up with Russia on military contracts. India is likely to receive its first delivery of the missiles later this year. The delivery may incur US sanctions under the CAATSA-- Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, although the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd James Austin in his last visit to New Delhi recently had assured that he had not raised the issue of sanction in his deliberations with the Indian side. But it is an open question whether the US will make that concession to India.

Arguably, Russia has been useful to India in enhancing India’s military power. Trading in military goods has been the driving motive for Russia’s relations with India for a long time. Even in this visit, Lavrov said that Russia will deepen the military cooperation with India. He added that both Foreign Ministers discussed the prospects of manufacturing Russian military equipment under the ‘Make in India’ scheme of things. New Delhi has paid a heavier price for Russian political support in the past on Kashmir etc. But New Delhi should now be wary of Moscow’s political compulsion to support China. At the same time, New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow for weapons is vulnerability that India’s decision makers need to take more seriously.

In India’s relations with Russia, New Delhi will have to revisit its strategy sooner than later. First is the efficacy of New Delhi’s diplomacy to drive a wedge between Russia and China. It should be noted that the Chinese economy is three times bigger than India and Russian economy put together. Furthermore, Moscow will lean more and more on Beijing as US ups the ante against Russia. The US is peeved with Russia for latter’s role in Ukraine, poisoning of its political opponents, and meddling in 2016 elections. Joe Biden, in the interim strategic guidance document talked of the “growing rivalry with China, Russia and other authoritarian states”. Russian President Putin, in some kind of response has hinted at the possibility of the military alliance with China.

Second, New Delhi and Russia trying for a multipolar global order is another strategy that needs to be revisited. Experts and observers would contend such a strategy does not reflect the reality of world politics today, and desire cannot overcome the reality. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 8 April 2021

Religion in Elections

APPEASEMENT OF HINDU MAJORITY

By Dr S. Saraswathi

(Former Director, ICSSR, New Delhi)

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, bitterly fighting for re-election of her government, has claimed during a visit to a temple in the midst of electioneering that she belongs  to Shandilya Gotra, one of the eight highest  Brahmin gotras,  and so  a  descendant of  Shandilya  Rishi. This was when the priest asked her gotra for performing  puja  on her behalf. This reminds us of former Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s declaration before last Lok Sabha election that he was a “Janeudhari”. He visited Kamakhya Temple in  Guwahati  this time.  DMK leaders in Tamil Nadu find it necessary to repeatedly affirm that they are not anti-Hindus.

Political scientists may view this as identity politics that can assume different avatars to suit the occasion. For onlookers, election campaigns are increasingly becoming comic shows and speeches less and less on public issues and more and more on personal and emotional matters.    In this trend, use of religion as a tool for propaganda and as a bond that can both integrate and disintegrate people is openly seen today in the four States and one Union Territory going to polls.

Prime Minister  Narendra  Modi’s  visit to  the  Matua Temple  near  Dhaka during his visit  to Bangladesh to participate in the Golden Jubilee celebration of  freedom of that country also invited criticism as having a political motive of appeasing Matua community of Hindus living in  North 24 Parganas in West Bengal. Modi also said, “This is a pilgrimage of the bond between the people of India and Bangladesh…People from India visit Orakundi each year and we will take measures to facilitate the pilgrimage”.  To Mamata  Banerjee,  it appeared  to be  a case of   “vote marketing”  and it is reported in the press that she raised a query in her characteristic style  why  PM’s passport and visa  should not be cancelled.

In election season, there is need to befriend all castes and communities while one can choose   one’s favourites off-election season. People, particularly those politically active, recall that the same West Bengal Chief Minister disallowed the traditional practice of taking out a procession for immersion of Durga idol after Durga Puja to allow undisturbed Muharram procedures.  Such contradictory positions assumed by political parties are very common. Consistency is the last virtue in election-related activities. 

In Puducherry, the BJP promised to remove government control over all donations given to places of worship, to build a temple complex at the famous Sani Bhagwan Temple at Tirunallar, to renovate historical temples, and conduct annual cultural and spiritual festivals. It promised to remove all encroachments on temple lands, and set up special funds for renovation of temples.   All these were offered to make the region a “spiritual hub”.

The DMK repeatedly asserts that it is not opposed to any religious faith and would uphold religious harmony and protect the honour of all religions. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister E Palaniswami belonging to the AIADMK says that Muslims and Christians should not trust the DMK and minorities have nothing to fear when the AIADMK is in power. He has also promised to renovate 7,000 temples in the State.

DMK is taking special efforts to erase the image it has earned as an anti-Hindu party by its origin and history. Rationalist leaders of the party questioned many traditional beliefs and practices still followed at home, in temples and in the society as part of religious rituals which helped to perpetuate social inequalities. They also changed some of them. Priestless, ritualless self-respect marriages were validated by the DMK government. Under Karunanidhi, the party had held anti-superstition and anti-caste conferences. It permitted temple mantra in Tamil along with Sanskrit.  Reforms intended for eradicating caste inequality and superstition, created an impression about the DMK as anti-Hindu and pro-minority religions.

More recently, Setusamudram Project opposed by many on the belief that Ram Setu was the bridge constructed by Lord Ram to cross the ocean to go to Lanka and therefore a sacred structure that   should not be demolished was steadfastly supported by the DMK -- a stand that vitally hurt Hindu religious sentiments. Its extraordinary enthusiasm in the project overlooking even its economic viability seemed to display a strong anti-Hindu posture.    

Karunanidhi’s questions over the engineering qualifications of Lord Ram to build a bridge could have pleased his associates as a political joke or for his secular faith but would not have gone well with Hindu majority.  DMK has to wipe clear of anti-Hindu tag – a tag which does not fit the present generation party loyalists. But, it has used for its political opponents and so an immense burden for DMK to be offloaded by deliberate pro-Hindu promises and gestures. 

Post-Karunanidhi DMK has a difficult task of gaining the support of all sections of Hindu majority not possible without respecting Hindu sentiments. Promoting Reservation Policy alone is not enough for collecting votes. It has to adopt a strategy suitable for all.  Hence, it can neither  openly stick to original DMK ideology pertaining to religion,  nor get out of it with the  result that it has to profess a novel “political secularism” that openly  supports minority religious groups and  privately follows the religion of the majority.

West Bengal presents a classic case of religious polarisation in the present election. In the Indian elections, religious affinity is used so far to appeal for votes, to select candidates, and for mobilisation of bloc votes by promises and offers. It was usually applied to garner support of minority groups which are inclined to form groups. This politics has gone too far and has now created need for “majority appeasement” to balance the disturbed scales.  

Mamata Banerjee accused the BJP of trying to divide the minority votes and playing communal politics. “It is my responsibility to ensure your security and well-being of your society”, she told the minority groups. She was not averse to reciting Islamic verses in government events, but protested against Jai Shri Ram slogan and walked out of the birth anniversary function arranged for Netaji where PM was also present. The epithet “Mother of Minority Appeasement” used for her by a BJP leader, whether fitted her or not,  indicated  that elections still have use for religious divisions  and appeasement politics.

In Kerala, Modi took up the case of protecting Indian culture. Citing the incidents at Sabarimala Temple for allowing entry of women in all age-groups as intrusion of activists in the culture of the land, he resented portraying Kerala culture as “regressive” and the attempts made to “destabilise place of worship”. He started his speech by chanting “Swamiye Saranam  Ayyappa”   and paid tributes to several temples in the region. With large population of Muslim and   Christian minorities, Kerala has a composite culture.

It is clear that in the present election series, the most noteworthy and surprising feature, because of its rather sudden emergence is the politics of Hindu majority appeasement. The well-established minority religious pampering is today facing a parallel growth of majority appeasement. When the BJP does it, it is part of its ideology of protecting and preserving Hindu religion; when others do it, it is their secular outlook!---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)