Round The World

New Delhi, 7 May 2021

Modi-Johnson Summit

AN ENHANCED PARTNERSHIP

By Dr. D.K.Giri

(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and British Prime Minister BorisJohnson had a virtual summit last Tuesday, which led to an Enhanced Trade Partnership between the two countries. The summit was held on the eve of G7 conclave in Britain attended by Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar. The two leaders drew the 2030 road-map leadingeventually tosigning of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Meanwhile, there will be an interim trade agreement signed by mid-2022 culminating later into a Free Trade Agreement.

The Summit assumes significance for more than one reason. Johnson had cancelled his visit to India twice, once last January when he was invited to be the chief guest at the Republic Day, as he had to deal with thescourge of the second surge of the Covid virus in his country, and again in April, when the India got hit by the second wave. Second, both countries have retreated from regional trading arrangements, India from the China-centric Regional comprehensive Economic Partnership, and Britain from the European Union. Third, both countries have been badly hit by the Pandemic and are fighting their way out of it.

Surprisingly, with a deep shared history albeit of colonialism which spawned several common structures, political. bureaucratic, military, educational and social (upper middle class), India and Britain relations have not been as seemly as they should have been. Both countries have been seen as natural allies in the international community. India could substantially join European Community only after Britain was admitted into it as a member in 1973. When I was asking for a membership for India in a non-governmental international entity where a British organisation was a member, the Swedish organisation lobbying for us suggested that we should secure the support of the UK member too.

While New Delhi has been able to build solid relations with countries like France, Germany and USA, the bilateralism with the United Kingdom has lagged. Although the British Labour Party in Government announced the independence of India n 1947, it has been more hostile than the conservatives to India. In 1997, 24 years ago, when the British ForeignSecretary Robin Cook accompanied the Queen on a state visit, he raised the Kashmiris’ right to self-determination. Cook was of course an out-spoken, garrulous politician who had to demit office mid-stream.

Tony Blair and Gordon Brown tried to repair the relations, but not to great effect. Their successor, Jeremy Corbyn who led the Labour party to two defeats displayed more negative attitude towards India by meddling in Kashmir and other domestic issues like the farmers’ agitation against the three new laws passed by the Indian government.

Admittedly, the large diaspora in Britain from the Indian sub-continent plays into British electoral politics. Yet the leaders from the Conservative Parties have seen India as a rising country and have respected New Delhi’s strategic autonomy. From John Major, who supported India’s globalisation plans, to David Cameroon who wanted to deepen the relations, to Theresa May who acknowledged India’s sovereignty in determining its domestic issues, to flamboyant Johnson promising to take the relations to a new paradigm. It should be noted that Johnson was in the forefront of the campaign to exit European Union. Therefore, Johnson will have to expand the trading and strategic links of Britain to compensate for the loss of such ties with the EU. India seems to be the first stop on that journey.

The relations between India and Britain were soured by mutual perception and prejudices. Britain tilted towards Pakistan resenting India’s international stature Under JL Nehru and took long to shed its superiority complex. Likewise, India suffered from a colonial hangover and looked away from Britain despite being a big member of the Commonwealth. Much water has flown since down the Thames and the Ganges. Both countries now deal with each other as two important members of the international community.

Against the above backdrop, the recent summit should be seen and appreciated for the headway achieved so far. To start with, Johnson announced a trade and investment package of one billion pounds and shared with Modi that Serum Institute has made an investment of 240 million pounds to manufacture nasal vaccines for Covid. Around the Summit, apart from theEnhanced partnership, eight other agreements were signed. The Partnership is based on five pillars: trade and economy, defense and security, climate action, health and people-to-people contact. All these agreements are expected to generate 25000 new direct and indirect jobs in India. Both leaders agreed to double the volume of their trade by 2030.

As per the Agreement, Britain will open up Indian fisheries, allow the nurses to seek jobs and accept the seafarers’credentials. In return, India will allow the import of fruits and medical devices under UK certificate of free sale. Both countries have agreed to move towards a social security agreement. The two sides resolved to work towards reciprocal opening up of legal services. The other agreements included emerging technologies,digital infrastructure and data policies, cooperation in telecommunications and ICT, customs cooperation, and collaboration on medical product regulations etc.

Significantly, a Memorandum on Migration and Mobility partnership was signed. The MoU is meant to facilitate legal movement of students and professionals and will check illegal migration. Under this understanding, about 3000 young Indian professionals every year could get employment in the UK for two years without facing the labour market test.

Both Modi and Johnson agreed to enhance the defense ties too. They decided to increase the maritime and industrial collaboration. Maritime information will hence forth be shared between the two sides. India invited UK to join India’s naval information fusion Centre and to participate in the trilateral naval exercises. Another notable step taken is to sign a Logistics Memorandum of Understanding between the armed forces.

The partnership agreement and the road-map augur well for both the leaders. Johnson is looking out for new opportunities for Britain especially after he led his country to withdraw from the European Union. He has shown interest in joining the India-Pacific security arrangement led by the Quad. For him, India should be a big market and player to engage with.

Likewise, Modi’s international image has got a drubbing after he misread the Covid situation, the onslaught of the second surge. In a matter of months, Modi who was feted by the international community for deftly handling the pandemic, producing and supplying abroad the vaccines, became an object of sympathy for many global leaders. He desperately needed recognition and formal collaboration like he got from Britain. This should give him a new lease of life in international politics.

To be sure, Modi can exult in the outcome of the Summit; he tweeted, “had a productive virtual summit with my friend UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson”. Modi will have to fix the health care system, efficiently disburse the aid pouring in from countries, save lives by providing hospital beds and oxygen, and check the spread of the virus by vaccinating people and enforcing the protocols. The death and destruction caused by the second surge will haunt Modi unless he fixes things quickly. He should not forget the practical reality, that is the local is global. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 30 April 2021

Celebrating Global Aid

A PYRRHIC VICTORY

By Dr D.K.Giri

(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)

In a television debate, BJP spokespersons were gloating over the international support pouring in to tide over the grave crisis the country is steeped in. The anchor, a government supporter, began by building a narrative that the instant support flowing in to India is the result of the vaccine diplomacy New Delhi had successfully launched a few months ago. It is New Delhi’s achievement to be able to draw in so much of solidarity support. Baffling it is to see the hubris and half-baked understanding of the ruling party spokespersons about diplomacy and politics.

The  BJP team is so carried away in defending their leadership that they forget the nuances of politics and the gravity of the situation. They confuse sympathy with solidarity, and pity with power. They overlook the deaths, destruction and despair the virus has caused, and become overjoyed with the promise of international support.

I told them it is like a villager saying, “my house may be on fire for my lethargy and mismanagement, but look at the goodwill I enjoy of my fellow-villagers, they are all giving a hand in dousing it’’. One of the spokespersons was singing eulogy of the Prime Minister; it is normal, Narendra Modi is invincible, infallible and a divine for his supporters, he could do no mistake. The spokesperson was ranting about the record number of vaccinations done under Modi’s able leadership which is 14 crores plus. But that is out of 138 crores, which is just 10 per cent of population. This is when India is the worst hit by the second surge in the world.

Yet, the devotees of Modi would say this is a unique feat in covid times accomplished by our Prime Minister. I told her, “God forbid, if our country was first one to perish in the apocalypse or a cataclysm, you as a spokesperson would say, look, under the dynamic and perceptive   leadership of Modi, the PM, we were the first country in the world to go”. This is exactly the case now; we are the worst off at present under this pandemic.

Humanity still exists in the world. So, the countries with resources and know-how will come up to help others in humanitarian crises affecting whichever country in the world even if the aggressive and authoritarian China seeks help, other countries would come forward. In our crisis, even Pakistan came forward to extend support by offering to send ambulances etc. One may argue that Pakistan’s offer of help could also be driven by malafide intentions in order to embarrass India. Or it could be a genuine step to help in a health disaster.

Another spokesperson was going on about how India is critical to global geo-politics. How important it is as a market for so many countries. The world could not afford to see India go down. Also, we are not begging for support, we have earned it as a reciprocity. It is our right to claim support when we need it. Again, that is arrogance of inferiority complex or both.

Without any political rancor, we have to save lives that are being lost for want of oxygen or a vaccine. We need to give hope to people that they can survive the pandemic. We need to save them from dying of the disease or of destitution. In this battle against the dreadful virus, any help that comes should be acknowledged and appreciated. We neither boast that we are worthy of support and undermine people’s goodwill, nor do we feel slighted in seeking support. We have been generous to countries, so they are. That is how the world should run in goodwill, interdependence and solidarity.

Scanning the support coming from the countries, the United States took time to extend support. Out of anxiety for their own citizens who were worst-hit in the first wave of the virus, they were stocking vaccines and other medical supplies three to four times more than they really need. When the domestic pressure grew on President Joe Biden to support India, he relented and opened up to doing his best for India. He got his National Security Advisor and Secretary of State to talk to their counterparts and organise the delivery of support. It is also learnt from the media that business houses in the US mainly from the Indian Diaspora have formed a consortium to help India combat Covid.

Emergency supplies such as Oxygen concentrators, PPE kits and medicines needed for SOS treatment have been promised by other countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, Singapore, Japan and even China. Supplies have begun to reach India too. Countries like Japan have agreed to collaborate in augmenting the manufacturing capacities in India for vaccines and other medical equipment.

As governments of several countries are readily supporting India, the media and the civil society are scathing in their criticism of the government of India for the sheer scale of the tragedy, which is causing an estimated 20,000 fatalities daily. Covid patients are dying on the streets without an oxygen cylinder and a bed in the hospital. Professor Madhukar Pai, a global health expert at McGill University in Canada, said, “it was devastating to see things get this bad in India. It is a perfect storm really”. Some invoke the Roman anecdote; Modi was like emperor Nero who was fiddling when Rome was burning.

An Australian Newspaper was by the most ruthless. It carried a photograph of a man running past the funeral pyres of the people who died from Covid-19 at a mass cremation in New Delhi, last Monday.  It captioned the photograph, “Ostriches don’t bury their heads in sand, Indian government does”. The title of the article was equally lacerating, “Modi leads India into viral apocalypse.” It said, “arrogance, hyper nationalism and bureaucratic incompetence have combined to create crisis of epic proportion in India, with its crowd-loving PM basking as the citizens suffocate”.

Country after country has banned any flight from India which was only six months ago feted as the vaccine guru and the pharma hub of the world. The bubble burst sooner than later as the Prime Minster began to wallow in the praise and sent out the vaccines to other countries. Good gesture of solidarity and humanitarianism. But Modi forgot the famous maxim that charity begins at home. Or he should have expanded the manufacturing capacities of the companies producing the vaccines.

To sum up, the world powers will perhaps continue to help India get out this terrible tragedy. But Modi should begin to calculate his political costs for poor preparedness, skewed priorities of governance and mismanagement of the second surge. His aspirations to become a world leader has got a beating. He would also do well to remember the fate of his friend Donald Trump, another populist leader, who perished in the presidential elections last year for his denial and later discredited handling of the pandemic.

Be that as it may, Modi will have to repair his own image and that of the country by taking swift actions to arrest the spread of the virus and saving those infected with it. That is the call of the hour. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 23 April 2021

US &Afghanistan

INDIA IN THE LURCH?

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. International Politics, JIMMC)

American President Joe Biden has set the month of September 2021 as the new deadline for the US troops to pack off from Afghanistan. The NATO soldiers will follow suit. Afghanistan government will be left to defend itself. President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has reassured his country and other Afghan watchers that his government is capable of defending the country’s security. This is more a rhetoric than a reality. His main adversary, Taliban, actively supported by Pakistan and its mentors, will prove to be stronger and savaging in revenge and retaliation, after the American withdrawal.

The grave concern haunting peace builders is where does this security vacuum leave India and Afghanistan. Contrary to some optimistic observations made by experts that India will have options in post-US security scenario in Afghanistan, India will have to address new threats emerging from Kabul and Pakistan; Islamabad uses the former as its strategic depth. Things do not look propitious for New Delhi as it had not built any bridge to Taliban, and Islamabad, despite the latest track-2 discreet negotiations, will seek to cause damage at the borders.

Afghanistan will remain highly vulnerable as America withdraws without putting any robust security alternatives in place. CIA Director William Burns, during a testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee underlined this point. He said the security threats to Kabul and beyond Afghanistan have not vanished and it would be difficult to gather intelligence without American troops on Afghan soil. Christine Fair, a scholar of South Asian political-militaryaffairs said, ‘ISI wins, Afghans lose’.This is a telling comment on American’s decision to pull out its remaining troops from Afghanistan.

Reportedly, there are deep differences of opinion in the US about Biden’s decision to withdraw by September. He announced that he no longer wishes to continue America’s longest war and that the terrorist attack on twin towers in 2001necessitated sending troops to Afghanistan. Since, those conditions no longer exist, there was no need to continue to station our troops. His supporters would contend that it was time to focus on China and Russia instead of Afghanistan.

Biden may be recalling George Marshall, Army Chief of Staff, who had suggested the swift defeat of Nazism was essential because “a democracy cannot fight a seven year’s war.” The war in Afghanistan is three times longer than that. Biden asserted, “Four American presidents have shouldered the responsibility of American troops in Afghanistan, I do not wish to pass this burden to a Fifth president.”

In US’s military engagement with Afghanistan, it has spent USD 2trillion, losing 2300 of its  troops. Also 157000 Afghans died in the battles with Taliban militants and other mercenaries. America had deployed upto 100,000 troops, out of which 3500 remain. Supporters of Biden line argue that US has done enough to secure Afghanistan and the peace process set in motion should materialise in the interest of all stakeholders. However, there is no discussion whatsoever about what would happen to India in security terms in post-bellum Afghanistan.

Critics of the Biden decision express deep worries. Republican Senator Lindsay Graham called it a disaster in the making. He warns that Biden may be paving the way for the repeat of 9/11 attack. Pakistan will have a field day in using its strategic depth in Afghanistandisrupting peace and security in the region. Beijing may use the situation to its advantage.

The wheel of history moved a full circle, when Pakistan, patronised by China and Russia, is using Taliban to fight the Americans through the government in Kabul. The US used Pakistan to fight the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; propped up the Mujahideen with the help from Islamabad. The US made the mistake of militarily feeding Pakistan as its frontline state against its arch rival Soviet Union. Now Pakistan is in another camp, that of China, which has replaced former Soviet Union as a challenger to American supremacy. The other mistake US made is not to have punished Pakistan severely for supporting Taliban and harbouring terrorists.

Since America is not factoring the possible sufferance New Delhi would face, observers would suggest that India should get its ducks in a row. What are India’s options? One school of thought says New Delhi has spent about USD1billion on development projects in Afghanistan, and thereby has earned goodwill of Afghan government, public and the moderates among Taliban. New Delhi could harness that positivism for neutralising any anti-India action from Afghan soil.

Second, if it can manage to continue good relations with Iran, it can still influence the developments to a considerable extent in Afghanistan. Recall, New Delhi was developing Chabahar Port in Iran and the railway line onward to Afghanistan. That would give access for India into Afghanistan and Central Asia. Third, if New Delhi could keep Russia in good humour with its defense deals, the latter may continue to support New Delhi in the region. Apparently, Russia bringsin New Delhi in its equation with China, be it BRICS or SCO, as counter-weight to Beijing. So New Delhi should have some room for manouvre.

One finds the foregoing forecast of India’s diplomacy in Afghanistan quite optimistic. It is in fact unrealistic strategic thinking. India has no more options than the QUAD plus the support of other friendly countries like Israel, France and Britain. Amongst these countries, US is critical to New Delhi’s security and prosperity. But intriguingly, both US and India are faltering in cementing a robust partnership. If US has determined to build New Delhi as acountervailing power to Beijing in the region, it should fully nudge and support India. It should give space to New Delhi to have a political and security toehold in Afghanistan, that includes New Delhi building up friendly relations with Iran.

Washington should also have special economic and trade relations with New Delhi. DespiteBeijing’s border aggression, New Delhi does more trade with China than with US. Washington should not demand reciprocity on trade from India as both countries are not at parity of growth or near enough to treat each other as equals. Washington is also perhaps exasperated with India’s polity of non-alignment, neutrality and multipolarity etc.

Likewise, New Delhi has to make its strategies clearer than they are now. Non-alignment is dead. Multipolarity in world politics is impractical. The current rivalry is between democracy, human rights, rule-based order on the one hand and authoritarianism, irredentism, revanchism represented by China and Russia, and terrorism propped up by their side-kick Pakistan. What is New Delhi’s choice? What are the different poles of power to advocate for a multipolar world?

History is repeating without a bloody confrontation between the Allied powers and the Axis powers, the latter being China, Russia and Pakistan. New Delhi should read the writing on the wall. It cannot go on pretending to be a friend of Russia, buy the S-400 missiles when Moscow openly criticises the Quad and stiches military deals with China and Pakistan.

To sum up, against the backdrop described above, New Delhi should step into Afghanistan with military force. US should put up an Allied command with forces from other countries including India before withdrawing fully. It should wait for the government in Kabul to be strong enough to fight religious fundamentalists, and terrorists. New Delhi could be a major stakeholder in the new scenario. If US wishes to retain its world supremacy, it should treat Afghanistan as its litmus test, so should New Delhi to maintain its security and as a beacon of democracy in the region.  --- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 1 June 2021

Seven Year Itch

MODIJI, HEAL INDIA

By Poonam I Kaushish

Call it the seven year itch but the cruel Covid summer 2021 has brought Prime Minister Modi to the crossroads. From the euphoria of 2014 on the wings of hope and trust a chai-wallah made his debut on national stage, down riding the crest of popularity wave in 2019 of saab ka saath, saab ka vikas, saab ka vishwas which would lead India on a path of growth, displaying his muscular 56-inches chhathi to metamorphosing as a Himalayan hermitage sage in 2021.  

May 30 marked seven years of the Modi Sarkar wherein he dazzled the country with brilliance, his oratory skills, decisiveness and battled with bull. A colossal Pied Piper to whose tune millions banged thaalis, clapped and light diyas.'s If his first tenure was about ‘Swachch Bharat’ to ‘Make in India’, now it’s Aatma Nirbhar, and ‘Go vocal on local,’ NaMo’s progress is a study in chutzpah and grandeur.

Yet, there are visible signs that the war against Covid 19 seems to have dimmed Modi’s sheen in the face of death and devastation and gut-wrenching grief. Amidst the public aakrosh of dead corpses floating in the Ganga, stink of unclaimed bodies, burning pyres, smoked-out crematoriums, grieving families is a reminder of a putrefying political system where citizens totals statistical numbers.

The goodwill of ushering in aachche din has slowly dissipated. Modi seems to be floundering as the messiah of progress and modernity. Today, he seems unsure, uneasy whereby his emotional appeal and tears don’t seem to move even his ardent admirers with an increasingly angry and restive janata demanding answers.

Questionably, has his luck and leadership run out? Can the Prime Minister brush under the carpet that he and the BJP are to blame for the mess they are in today. Will the seven-year itch affect Modi as it did his predecessors Indira Gandhi in 1973-74 and Manmohan Singh in 2011? Will his dream run at the hustings continue? Is NaMo vincible?

Undoubtedly, the second wave has dented Modi’s image and the Government’s credibility in hard political currency. The glossy Teflon-coated protective veil around the Modi persona has been lifted and a governance deficit of callousness and mismanagement exposed. A floundering vaccine policy, lack of hospital beds, medicines, oxygen et al.

So what went wrong? Everything. Sadly, the Government has none but itself to blame for the incredible mess it finds itself in even as it fobs it off on an “pervasive, unaccountable “system”. The BJP tries distractive old tricks by creating a Congress ‘toolkit’ controversy and the Hindutva fountainhead RSS launches a campaign “Hum Jeetenge” and “Positivity Unlimited” to counter ‘negativity’ and apply balm but it comes across as insensitive and jarring.

Worse, it forgot that power is 99% perception and rightly or wrongly, Modi, his ministerial brood and the Party is perceived as arrogant and brash dictatorial running a one-man rock band albeit concentrating power in the PMO. A one-way street full of staccato monologue, no dialogue and questions are a strict no-no.

Certainly, Brand Modi has taken a hit. Asserted a senior BJP leader, “The pandemic has exposed the widening gaps between the Government and Party, denting their reputations. The winding up of additional capacity in Delhi in February as cases were rising in Maharashtra and Kerala, demonstrated our lack of anticipation compounded by the absence of Ministers, MPs, MLAs and workers from the scene to provide relief and aid.”

The coming months pose a stiff challenge. The Government’s future hinges on how quickly and effectively it addresses the issue of mass vaccination of people specially belonging to marginalized and poorer sections of society. Given the pandemic could upset the BJP’s ideological and electoral applecart.

Politically, next year will be decisive as seven States go to polls: UP, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Himachal, Punjab, Goa and Manipur against the backdrop of a relentless Covid shadow. The stakes in UP and five others barring Punjab are high as it promises to become a referendum and a litmus test on the BJP more so post the West Bengal defeat which has dented the Modi-Shah image of invincibility. Consequently retaining these States is vital. 

His second challenge is a course correction of the economy. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy rural unemployment rate touched 13.5%, urban joblessness rose to 17.4% totaling a national new high of 14.7% last week. The annual GDP performance in 2020 crashed to -8.0%, the worst amongst all developing nations (Bangladesh grew at 3.8% in 2020). Add to this, rising oil prices, consumers buying less and a slowing economy. Clearly, bread-and-butter issues are back on the economic delivery table. Modi in 2014 had asked for 10 years to put India on track, let’s see.

Externally, China is still playing old tricks. Deep mistrust and lack of confidence is apparent. New Delhi needs to walk a diplomatic tightrope, make some hard choices and pick up the gauntlet. Will he be able to get Beijing to retreat from Ladakh and LAC? India’s new assertiveness would need all the wisdom, maturity and restraint to ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-China script.

Paradoxically, even as Covid 19 gives the moribund Opposition a unique opportunity to put Modi on the mat, hold him accountable and resurrect itself, it is too timorous to claim it. Primarily, because of the disarray within the Congress, the largest Opposition Party which has largely been in suspended animation wherein Sonia-Rahul look more like a bunch of stricken virus patients than like determined champions of the democratic mandate to hold the Government to account.

Their failure to seize the opportunity or the collective Opposition’s unwilling to confront and corner the Government on substantive issues of mishandling the second wave, economic mismanagement to demand accountability along-with the TINA (there is no alternative) factor has ensured that Modi retains his macho numero uno and still enjoys goodwill.

Of course, he is no magician as he has to live up to huge expectations generated by his 3D media campaign on social and digital networking sites, twitter, U tube etc. His task is not enviable and the burden enormous given our fickle and unforgiving voters. Much is expected of him.

Startlingly, Modi has still to address key developmental issues that continue to exercise people: law and order, preventing crime against women and children, inflation, illiteracy and ill-health which are the touchstone of the much-hyped and illusionary deal of roti, kapada aur makan. Look at the irony. Cellphones go abegging, yet people continue to beg for food.

Ultimately, much will depend upon Modi’s political will and priorities in the weeks and months ahead. He knows only too well staying ahead is the name of the game. The leader who survives is the one that rises to meet the moment, who has the wisdom to recognize the threat and the will to turn it back, and does so before it is too late.

Undeniably Modi is still the BJP's best bet despite his trust quotient and credibility taking a beating vis-à-vis handling of the pandemic. It remains to be seen if the Pradhan Sevak will rise to the occasion as by the term his term ends in 2024, a quarter of the 21st century will already have gone by. The electorate has presented him a historic opportunity. Yet he needs to remember a Hindi idiom: “Bhooka Pait Bhajan Nahin Hoth Gopala” (Lord I cannot sing to you on an empty stomach.) Today, the nation needs a healing touch. Will he apply the much needed  balm? Time will tell. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)