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Events and Issues
SDGs &COVID-19: SHIFT FOCUS ON INEQUITIES, By DrS.Saraswathi, 10 June 2021 |
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Events
& Issues
New Delhi, 10 June 2021
SDGs &COVID-19
SHIFT FOCUS ON
INEQUITIES
By DrS.Saraswathi
(Former Director,
ICSSR, New Delhi)
Life goes on as usual, and it has to -
pandemic or lockdown -
and NITI Ayoghasreleasedits 2020 SDG (Sustainable Development Goals) Index.The
country’s over-all scorehas improved from 60 in 2019 to 66 in 2020. Kerala canboast of rankingfirst consistently
and Bihar maylament over its steady backwardness. Inter-State disparities
continueand are notupset by the impact of
Covid-19.
SDGs area collection of 17 global goals
designed to be a “blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all”.These were conceived
post-MDG (2015) by consensus among renowned experts from the UN, NGOs, and private
sectors, with a team of economists to prepare
research papers to arrive at most effective targets for post-2015 development
agenda within certain core issues like food security,gender equality, health,
infectious diseases, nutrition, population and demography, air pollution,
governance and institutions, poverty, water
and sanitation,etc., totaling 22.
Setting targets and goals and making declarations have been a strategy of the
United Nations and its agencies to go forward and makeprogress though
targeted approach isnotalways
successful.
NITIAayog launched this index in 2018to
monitor the country’s progress towards the goals set in 2015 for 2030 on data-based assessment. It
isintended to take stock of the situation and progress and also to stimulate healthy
competition between States and UTs in the race to reach the Goals. It
ranksStates and UTs by compiling a complex index on SDGs.Ranking of States on
performance inthesocial sector including health and education initiated by the
NITIAayog can promote healthy competition. The Centre, as the national head,
does not link financing and performance
as States face different kinds of problemsdue to a variety of reasons affecting performance.
In competitive federalism in India, policy-making
is not a one-way route. A system of Centre-State participation in policy
formulation has been evolved consistent with the constitutional scheme of
distribution of powers between the Union and States. The shareof fiscal
resources for the States is transferred to respective States and governments
have autonomy to fix their priorities.States neednot look to the Centre for
policy guidance as a routine.However,States
have to adhere to national objectives. The arrangementfacilitates both
autonomy and equality.
Kerala’s score on SDG Index 2020 has improved
from 70 in 2019 to 75 in 2020. Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh are close
followers with a score of 74. At the bottom are Bihar, Jharkhand, and Assam scoring 52, 56, and 57
respectively. The over-allindex score is given on the basis of total performanceand
States are classified in four groups -- aspirant
0-49; performer 50-64; front-runner 65-99; and achiever 100.All Stateshave
shown improvement compared to previous year.Haryana and Mizoram show the biggest
gain.No Stateremains merely as aspirant, nor anyone has become anachiever.
An assessment by the UN in March of the
impact ofCovid-19 on the SDGs found that rising inequality due to pandemic will
be a common feature in the region. However,theIndex shows no alarming growth in gaps between
performers.This year’sindexgives greater weight to social inequality instead of
economic assessedin the two previous years.
Covid-19negativity, it is notedin studies,
affected several goals of SDG like removal of poverty (Goal 1), eradication of hunger
(Goal2), good health and well-being (Goal 3), decent economic growth (Goal 8),
and reduced inequality (Goal 8).Under the combined impact of Covid-19 and theinescapable lockdown in various degrees,
economic and social living are under tremendous pressure pulling the nation
away from SDG Goals. Still, our performanceisfairly good.
The path for SDGs was laid by Millennium
Development Goals (MDG) 2000-2015. The focus then was on over-all progress
ignoring inequities within countries. It is considered necessary now to
disaggregate data and results by States and by significant categories like
gender, economic status, geographic
area, etc., so as to understand the true status of progress and identify areas
requiring special attention.
Inequality in various forms is recognised as
aprincipal issue that is undermining over-all
development in ourtime.Reducing inequalities has become a big challengein
global policy-making. There is consensus in theory that all should enjoy equal
access to equal opportunity. The Report
on UN2030 and Beyond says that, “Leave no one behind” serves as the theme of 2030 agenda for sustainable development. But, application
ofthe concept inpractice is a challenge in many countries,including India.
Sectoral, gender, economic and other disparities intervene and work in both ways to aggravate
or lessen the inequalities.
NITI Aayog’s 2020 Index has changed the
indicators for assessing inequality omitting economic indicators like rate of
household expenditure and adding instead social indicators like SC, ST and women representation in elected
legislatures and panchayatsand crimes against SC and ST.
Economic inequality indicated by industry
andinfrastructure development suffered heavily
decliningby 10 points. Decent
work lost 3 points. Covid-19
andlockdown have made a big dent in individual and national economy. The poorer
sections suffer more. However,poverty and removal of hunger saw
significantimprovement.
The goal of Health and Well-being is bound to move further away since
healthcare is very expensive and beyond affordability of most people in India.
While MDG had three health goals, SDG set one only to “ensure healthy lives and
promote well-being for all in all ages” and to tackle the epidemic of
non-communicable diseases, substance abuse, and ill-effects of environmentalhazards.It hasbeen assumed that
health involves a broad range of social determinants covered by other SDGs in13targets.
Health service concentrating on fighting
Covid-19, other programmes are bound to suffer. Healthis related to other goals
like poverty eradication, gender equality, education, food security, water and
sanitation, etc.Health is actually brought at the centre of thedevelopment
agenda longbefore coronavirus struck the world. The pandemic has shown us that
sustainability is something that shouldbe taken more seriously by governments.
Universal health coverage is a targetin the Health Goal.
Public health cannot be maintained without removing
inequitiesin other spheres. Epidemic and
pandemiccontrol,unlike non-communicable diseases, is impossible without
reaching health services to everybody.
Unequal services and unequal utilisation ofservices (by ignorance, intent, design, or sabotage) will undermine
efforts at fighting the pandemic. No one should be left behind.
Will the country succeed in shifting focus to
inequities, vulnerabilities, and rivalries besides wants and shortages so as to provide
healthcare, and minimum amenities to all? Will India handle problems like
migrantlabour from rural areas, and unorganised workforce in urban areas, who need and deserve support to get over
inequalities? Will the government crush anti-national forces that undermine efforts at fighting the
pandemic by false propagandaand black-marketing in health goods and aggravating
social differences? At the base of all ills is rampant inequalities of various
kinds. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Courts’ Prudence: GOVT MUST HEED, FAST, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 9 June 2021 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 9 June
2021
Courts’ Prudence
GOVT MUST
HEED, FAST
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
The pandemic has
induced both good and bad news in the country’s judiciary. On the one hand, the
second catastrophic Covid wave has led the courts to play a pro-active role and
make the Executive accountable and answerable. On the other, the judiciary
finds itself overburdened and the number of pending cases have hit an all-time
high.
The second wave of
Covid-19 particularly has seen the Supreme Court as well as many High Courts
take the initiative to direct governments to put their house in order, be it
frightening shortage of oxygen or hospital beds or a distorted vaccination
policy. Some have been harsh, to say the least calling the callousness as
‘criminal negligence’ or that “some people need to be charged with
manslaughter. Undoubtedly, it’s the judiciary, which has given hope to people
that skewed working and policies will get rectified under its watchful eye. Remember,
it was the apex court and not the Centre which suggested the constitution of
the 12-member National Task Force (NTF) to devise a scientific formula for
rational and equitable allocation of oxygen to states, audit utilization and
suggest means to augment production.
On the other side is
the distressing picture, that of rising number of pending cases in courts as well
the inability of people to get justice within a reasonable period of time. The
pendency of cases have gone up over 4.4 crores across the country. In a recent
study of judicial pendency, commissioned by the Department of Justice through
the Administrative Staff College, revealed that the average waiting period for
trial in lower courts is around 10 years and 2-5 years in High Courts.
Recently, Chief
Justiceof India N V Ramana has unveiled an ambitious plan to set up a
National Judicial Infrastructure Corporation (NJIC) to build “comprehensive,
self-contained, all-inclusive and modern court complexes across the country to
augment judicial infrastructure.” According to him this would aid overcome the poor
infrastructure, which “was proving to be a major stumbling block in delivery of
justice”. The proposal is timely but much will depend on what final shape it
takes.
At the same time, his
predecessor S.A. Bobdehad issued a slew of directions to the Centre for
expediting appointment of judges besides exercising its extraordinary powers to
permit appointment of retired judges as ad hoc judges of High Courts to clear
the massive backlog of 57 lakh cases. This was while taking suo motu cognisance
of 40 per cent vacancies pending in High Courts. Against the sanctioned
strength of 1080 judges, there are only 664 judges thus 416 posts are lying
vacant. As such, a dormant provision of the Constitution, Article 224A, for
appointment of ad hoc judges to deal with the massive backlog has been taken.
The development came in
the backdrop of frequent irritants between the Centre and the top court. While
the Supreme Court collegium has often criticised the Centre for delaying
appointments, the government had passed back the buck to it, saying
recommendations were being made considerably late beyond the six month period
as per the MoP (Memorandum of Procedure). The decision for ad hoc judges should
have been taken long back so as not to allow the pendency of cases to increase
considerably. However, induction of say retired judges may not necessarily
bring about desired changes in the judicial system.
Early this month, the
Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) wrote to CJI Ramana to consider lawyers
practicing in the apex court for appointment as High Court judges. It justifies
this on the grounds that these lawyers have “vast experience and best exposure
in dealing with all kinds of issues relating to civil, criminal,
constitutional, commercial law, etc.”It regretted that such lawyers are “rarely
considered for elevation by the High Court collegium as they don’t regularly
practice before the High Court” and that while professionally they are more
meritorious than their High Court colleagues, they lose the opportunity for
being considered.
Other than filling up
vacancies, development of adequate infrastructure, which is woefully missing,
begs attention. For example, some additional benches of High Courts need to be
created and this has to be taken up by the States, though there are financial
and inadequate manpower constraints. Lower courts in many States too need
special attention too.
Besides, governments
aren’t giving adequate attention to modernising these courts to ensure quick
adjudication of cases, both criminal and civil cases. Lately, with courts going
into virtual mode during the pandemic, large number of lawyers are finding it
difficult to change mindsets and adapt to online system. Suggestions such as training
of judges and lawyers, augmentation of video-conferencing systems in trial
courts, especially in rural areas with links to litigants, mobile vans
establishing connections between courts and rural populations, are some which
have been thrown up.
Worse, the legal process
is long-drawn and establishment of conciliation centres or more fast track courts
is not on radar. It is no secret that justice to be deliveredtakes a decade if
not more, by which it would be too late, the sheer objective getting lost. The
lengthy process, also hurts the lower sections of the society as it impacts
their livelihood-- lawyer’s fee, innumerable trips to the courts and precious
wastage of time, among others. Perhaps, the apex court could consider bringing
about an order wherein all cases must be time-bound-- settled say within a span
of three years and, in special cases, an extension may be given by another
year.
While the concept of fast
track courts has been a welcome change, the numbers are inadequate in the
backdrop of rising burden of cases, specially at the sub-divisional and
district levels. More such courts need to be set up and State governments must
ensure funds for these. Recall the first fast track court was set up in 2000.
But not much headway has been made as the money released by Centre is
inadequate and so also the State governments priorities to have regular staff.
The inordinate delay
in settlement of cases is a significant hindrance to the judiciary’s rating
in the global system. And CJI Ramana seeks to make requisite amends. In a
two-day virtual conference with High Court judges, he stated: “I am of the firm
belief that unless infrastructure is strengthened, it is unfair to expect courts,
particularly lower courts, to do miracles and increase the pace of justice
delivery. Both quality and quantity of justice delivery can be improved only
when support systems are strong enough to meet the challenges.”
While the saying
‘justice delayed is justice denied’ is well-known and oft-quoted, the critical
changes for an efficient and timely system as desired must be taken up on
priority. The second wave of the pandemic has seen truth being spoken to
powers. Whether it will last and yield results, needs to be keenly watched.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Governor: Centre’s Chaprasi: NEED TO LAY DOWN NEW RULES, By Poonam I Kaushish, 8 June 2021 |
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Political
Diary
New Delhi, 8 June
2021
Governor: Centre’s
Chaprasi
NEED TO LAY DOWN NEW
RULES
By Poonam I Kaushish
Whoever
said different political strokes for different political folks was dead on.
Specially when it comes to the high Constitutional office of the Governor.
Wherein handpicked loyalists do whatever their mai baaps sitting on India’s Raj gaddi want. Governance, after all is one big nautanki which has rewritten the basic time-honoured rules of
authority and turned democracy on its head. Bend them, break them, who cares!
Alas,
the continuing acrimony since July
2019 being played out in West Bengal and Delhi between Governor
Jagdeep Dhankhar and Chief Minister Mamata’s TMC has once again brutally put
the Governor’s role under the microscope. In its
latest tirade it has accused Governor of appointing relatives as officers on
special duty in his personal staff. An allegation Dhankhar denies, instead
alleges it’s to divert attention from the “grim and alarming law and order
situation” in the State following
post-poll violence.
Asserted he, “I'd
like to know what the State Administration is doing? Violence is increasing and the State is
“plagued with rampant violence….and ego prevails over public service.” In
retaliation the TMC has demanded Dhankhar's dismissal to President Kovind stating
that the Governor is not satisfied being in the Raj Bhavan and is interested
more in politics. Modiji should field him in an election and make him a
Minister.”
Taking
another swipe Mamata wrote to Dhankhar asserting, “I had specifically advised you to refrain from surpassing the
Chief Minister and Ministers and communicating-dictating to officials in excess
of your power under the Constitution and directing them to attend before you….You
are ignoring this advice.” Replied
Dhankhar, “I am appalled that the Chief Minister should even be contemplating
that the Governor has to obtain orders of the Government.”
Certainly, this tu-tu-mein-mein
between two Constitutional posts is not the first or the last time. Call it déjà vu, either way Modi NDA’s is no
different from National Front VP Singh’s 1989, Vajpayee’s 1999 nor UPA’s
2004-14 all have used, misused and debased the gubernatorial office to further
their political agendas and got Governors to do at their bidding, ever ready to
destablise the State, if desired by New Delhi. Most have no qualms of
conscience in rubbishing it in personal or Party interest, overlooking the
Constitution’s letter and spirit.
Expectedly,
this new nadir has once again raised questions about a Governor’s role,
qualifications and his Constitutional obligations and duties. Raising a moot
point: Is he the Centre’s kathputli?
Or, the keeper of the people’s faith as the Constitutional head of a State.
Importantly, are there any rules to underscore some semblance, coherence and
uniformity in gubernatorial actions? A charter of directions and guidelines?
Sadly,
in a milieu dictated by opportunism and you-scratch-my-back-and-I-yours, all
are past master in manipulating tactics reducing Raj Bhavans as extensions of
their Party offices. Instances of Governors interpreting or ‘misinterpreting’
the rule book any way he wants, drawing his own conclusions based more often
than not, on delusions so that he and his mai-baaps
at the Centre could rule the roost are aplenty.
Consequently,
a gubernatorial post is no longer decided on whether a person is a man of
stature known for his integrity and objectivity, but whether he can be a
convenient tool of the Centre, a chamcha.
Specially in Opposition-ruled States where he runs the administration by proxy,
playing the I-spy-game: petty politricking, gross interference, open
partisanship at the Centre’s behest.
Sending
for files, summoning Ministers and bureaucrats. To hear, entice, provoke and
register the voice of dissent against the State Government to his political
patrons in Delhi. Bluntly, make life hell for the Chief Minister at every step
and use it as a springboard to return to active politics.
Predictably,
this has tossed out the ‘safety valve’ envisaged by the Constitution makers of
who should be appointed Governors, manner of their appointment and their role.
During Constituent Assembly debates leaders hoped that eminent individuals,
preferably not those directly involved with politics should be appointed to
this ‘exalted’ position.
Unsurprisingly,
like its erstwhile predecessor Congress, the BJP has turned the conventions of
a Governor always being a Governor on its Constitutional head whereby a Rajyapal
relinquishes office and returns to active politics. Instances are many:
Mizoram Governor K Rajasekharan quit for active politics in Kerala. Karnataka
ex-Chief Minister SM Krishna was appointed Maharashtra Governor and later
India’s Foreign Minister. Ditto Sushil Shinde who relinquished Maharashtra
Chief Ministership in November 2004 and was anointed Andhra Governor the same
day. Two years later he re-entered active politics and within hours was sworn
in as Cabinet Minister for Power and later Union Home Minister in 2012.
All
seem to have forgotten that a Governor’s true function is not just to represent
the Centre but, as the head of the State, to serve his people and fight their
battles with the Centre, not vice versa. He has to bear in mind the overall
national interest, not partisan Party interests at the Centre and be in tune
with his own people.
The
Constitution empowers him to influence the decisions of an elected Government
by giving him the right “to be consulted, to warn and encourage” His role is
overwhelmingly that of a “friend, philosopher and guide” to his Council of
Ministers with unrivalled discretion. A lot more than those of the President.
As
noted by Sarkaria Commission and endorsed by the Supreme Court, the Governor’s
role is that of “a Constitutional sentinel and that of vital link between the
Union and the State…Being the holder of an independent Constitutional office,
the Governor is not a subordinate or subservient agent of the Union
Government.”
Pertinently,
the Commission made two weighty recommendations. One, the Governor should be
appointed in consultation with the Chief Minister of the State. Two, his tenure
of five years should not be disturbed, except in rare circumstances for
“extremely compelling reasons”. But these lie buried.
What
next? Sadly, all lament the decline of the Governor office but continue to
misuse and abuse it for personal and Party ends. Not only does it generate bad
blood between Lilliputian politicians but in its wake denigrates the Constitution.
Governors
need to remember that democracy means respecting the Constitution and upholding
established conventions along-with realizing the essence of Constitutionalism
is restraint and not confrontation. Time to introspect whether persons with a
preference for extra-Constitutionalism and lack of restrain should be appointed
or continued as Governors.
West
Bengal is a lesson on the dangers of appointing political hatchet men to high
offices which calls for fairness, uprightness and adherence to Constitutional
values and conventions. Our leaders need to rise above politics and set healthy
and gracious conventions for high Constitutional offices if our democracy is to
be put back on rails. They need to revamp and restore a Governor’s old glory
and appoint neutral non-political Governors.
Clearly,
the Governor must not be reduced to being a who’s who to who? who? A glorified chaprasi! It is now imperative that
Prime Minister Modi who postulates the Constitution also practices what he
solemnly preaches. Remember, what matters are not men but institutions. One can
tit for an individual but not tat on the State!
----- INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
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Cyclones & Climate Change: CONTROL MECHANISM CRITICAL, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 2 June 2021 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 2 June
2021
Cyclones
& Climate Change
CONTROL
MECHANISM CRITICAL
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
The fury and
devastation of cyclones is back. First Tauktae and then Yaas have stretched the
affected States’ administration workload, already battling the pandemic. Though
by now a common phenomenon in India, cyclones in recent years, have intensified,
particularly in the Eastern coast. Other thanpreparing an integrated coastal
management plan, there is need to put sharper focus on climate vulnerability and
make updated assessment.
Last year, super
cyclone Amphan ravaged through Odisha and Bengal followed by Fani, causing
losses amounting to thousands of crore. In fact, Amphan was predicted as a
super cyclone, the second in the Bay of Bengal since the 1999 Odisha super
cyclone over the sea. But the devastation would have been severe as Amphan
actually lost some steam while over the sea and turned into a severe cyclonic storm
when it made landfall.
According to the
Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), given the increase in
frequency and intensity of such extreme climate events, India needs to build
climate resilience at multiple levels. As per its analysis, after 2005,
the yearly average of Indian districts affected by cyclones tripled and the frequency
doubled. In the last decade alone, 258 districts were affected.
This year, the first
cyclone to hit India was Tauktae, which was at its
most intense near the Mumbai coast before it propelled towards Gujarat.
According to experts, an extreme weather event of this nature portends a
warning about the likely consequences of ignoring climate change. This is the
third year in a row that cyclones in the Arabian Sea have menaced the west
coast. Nisarga in 2020 even made landfall near Alibaug in Maharashtra while in
2019, Vayu moved parallel to the shoreline. The recent frequency of cyclones, was
a clear sign of temperatures rising in the Arabian Sea. These low-pressure
systems are formed when warm, moist air rises up from the sea surface.
Another severe
cyclone Yaaswas witnessed on May 26 which caused massive losses to Odisha and
coastal areas of Bengal. The inundation as also the cyclones have had a
disastrous effect with nearly 156 km embankments damaged in four districts of
Bengal, not only destroying huts but will eventually impact agricultural crops.
Both these two
cyclones, according to meteorologists, were preceded by very high surface
temperature, reaching 310C-320C. While Tauktae
spent several days in the Arabian Sea where it could draw the heat and moisture
continuously, reaching peak intensity of over 220 km/hr. , in the case of Yaas,
it was formed in north of Bay of Bengal and the travel distance to landfall
was shorter.
Historically, waters
off the western coast have experienced fewer storms than Bay of Bengal and
typically weaker. Obviously, the rapid warming of the Arabian Sea isleading to
not just more cyclones but also more extreme rain events. Such warm ocean
conditions have witnessed rapid intensification of cyclones, according to a
climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
Recently the UN
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNIDR) in consultation with the Centre for
Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in a study found that India
suffered economic losses of $80 billion during the 20-year period of 1998 to
2017. It has been ranked among world’s top four countries in absolute economic
losses, the others being the US, China and Japan.
Globally, disaster
losses during the period have been estimated at around $ 2.908 trillion.
These losses increased by over 120 per cent in the last 20 years compared to
the preceding two decades (1978-1997). And if losses from climate related
disaster are taken into account, these have gone up by 151 per cent. India has
been found to be the worst-sufferer of disaster related deaths and economic
loses. Thousands of lives are lost and hundreds of crore worth of properties
destroyed every year, though not all of these are reported, a fact
authenticated by the UN report.
According to a report
by Christian Aid in December 2020, floods and Cyclone Amphan accounted for
maximum loss of lives globally due to climate change triggered events that
year. In fact, Amphan was the costliest cyclone of the year, displacing 4.9
million people and putting an economic impact of over $13 billion (Rs 96,000
crore).
One may mention here
that the Eastern region including Jharkhand, Mizoram, Odisha, Chhattisgarh,
Assam, Bihar and Bengal is ‘highly vulnerable’ to climate change, according to
a recent climate vulnerability assessment report, released by the Science &Technology
Ministry. It noted that Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand have, in fact, over 60%
districts in the category of ‘highly vulnerable’. The report titled ‘Climate
Vulnerability Assessment for Adaptation Planning in India Using a
CommonFramework’ noted that all districts or States are vulnerable but some
are relatively more vulnerable than others, requiring prioritised adaptation
interventions to face the impact of climate change such as extreme weather
events, stress on water resources, soil degradation and desertification.
Cyclones and floods
have become a regular feature in the country. The effects of such national
disasters are indeed quite severe, specially those residing in the coastal
areas for quite a few months. While, no doubt, disaster management by the
government has improved significantly over the years, tackling severe cyclones
is somewhat limited to relief and rehabilitation, even preparedness before such
disasters. Moreover, as is the case with most disasters, the promised aid
rarely reaches the affected and they continue to suffer over a period of time
Apart from loss of
lives, which has been drastically brought down, the economic loss continues
unabated. And obviously, the poor and neglected sections are the worst
sufferers of cyclones. Experts are of the opinion that
there is need for an integrated coastal management plan with a long term
perspective, primarily aimed at raising secure embankments. Take the case
of Netherlands, which is surrounded by seas, but manages to be secure and has three-structured
barrages (or bandhs)
It is important to
keep in mind that with global warming increasing at a rapid pace, seas are
found to warm up seven times more than surface land, leading to higher
occurrences of cyclones and massive flooding. It is critical that the
suggestion of the CEO of CEEW be given a serious thought i.e. the creation of a
national climate risk commission comprising stakeholders with statutory
authority and publish periodic climate risk assessments, apart from undertaking
other responsibilities. Unless there is an action plan of tackling such
disasters in the coming decade, lives and livelihoods of those living in and
around coastal areas are likely to suffer severely in the coming years.
One may criticise the
present government but there is no denying that previous governments record has
not been any better. However, with cyclones ravaging States with much
ferocity, disaster mitigation has finally
been taken up as a professional exercise at the national level. There has been
progress in disaster risk reduction wherein largescale recue and relief
operations are being undertaken to evacuate people to safe areas. However, relief
and rehabilitation still does continue to be major primary work. Now is
obviously the time to allocate substantial resources towards building
embankments and concrete barrages. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Pandemic 2nd Wave: NOT GDP ALONE, STRATEGY VITAL, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 26 May 2021 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 26 May
2021
Pandemic 2nd Wave
NOT GDP ALONE, STRATEGY VITAL
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The second wave of
the pandemic posed a downside risk, severely affecting economic activity in the
first quarter of the current fiscal with future expectations of a muted
economic impact as compared to the first wave, according to experts. The first
wave due to a national lockdown had hurt economic activity in two successive
quarters. However, in the second wave the impact has been much severe with
growth estimates being affected.
The RBI still
maintains that the dent to aggregate demand is expected to be moderate in
comparison to a year ago. In a separate report, the SBI stated they are little
apprehensive of double digit growth in this fiscal though other agencies have
downgraded growth to around 9 per cent.. “Given the rise in cases and
restriction in every State, real GDP growth of 10.4% looks a bit ambitious.
Regarding the question if the pent-up demand would support economic activity
once the restrictions are removed, we believe recovery will depend on the
psyche of people to come out and this will not happen till the larger
population is vaccinated”, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI group’s Chief Economic
Adviser observed. But the larger population being vaccinated may take another six
months, if not more.
Though recently the
growth rate has been downgraded to 9.3 per cent by Moody’s Investor Services
from 13.7 per cent predicted earlier, there are reasons to believe that the
rate in the current fiscal would not be less than 8.5 per cent. However, the
problem in assessing growth is focused on the rate of increase of GDP. This
narrow perspective of analysing growth obviously does not take into account the
rise or fall of the incomes of the poor segments and economically weaker
sections, which constitute around 40-45 per cent of the population. In the
present situation, not just these groups but also the lower income sections
have been greatly affected.
One may also refer to
a recent study of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which found that
a total of 73.5 lakh jobs were lost in April with the unemployment rate rising
to over 14 per cent by mid-May from 6.5 per cent in March. It pointed out that
the lockdownand economic slowdown has devastated small enterprises in rural
areas. India had almost 39 crore employed people at the end of
December 2020, counting both the organised and unorganised sectors. The
number rose to 40.07 crore by January-end but fell to 39.82 crore by February,
39.81 crore by March and 39.08 by April end. A section of the 73.5 lakh people
who lost their jobs in April were agricultural workers, who had just finished
harvesting.
Besides, as per a
study of Pew Research Centre, which analysed the situation last year, a massive
32 million people slipped from being in the middle class, in terms of income,
to the lower income group. The number of people, living in the country with an
income of $2 or less per day, increased by 75 million. Another study of Azim
Premji University, observed that 23 crore people have been pushed into poverty
from March to October 2020, increasing the number of poor households by a
staggering 77 per cent, which may now be anything around 80%.
As reports have
indicated that apart from loss of jobs, partial lockdowns have very severely
affected daily wage earners as also small traders and shopkeepers. The lack of
demand, even in urban areas but, due to reduced purchasing capacity of a major
section of the population, is another indicator of the economy not being in
proper shape. Moreover, the sudden spurt in prices of pulses, edible oils and
some other grocery items has put most families in great crisis. Food inflation
climbed over 5 per cent -- may have crossed 5.5 per cent by end April -- and
overall consumer inflation is above 5.5 per cent.
Though industrial
output jumped at the fastest pace in at least nine years, clocking 22 per cent
jump in March, on the back of a 19 per cent decline a year ago, the reality is
that this has had little effect on the masses. The increasing pool of
unemployed people has emerged as an enormous problem with no hope of new livelihood
opportunities coming up. The pandemic as, is generally agreed, is of stunning
proportions leading to a weakened economy crippled by inadequate attention and
faulty policies.
What needs to be
assessed is not the overall growth but the extent of income loss and
deteriorating conditions of the lower segments of society. In this connection,
there emerges the need for a planned strategy to provide work to the poorer and
impoverished sections, both in rural and urban areas. However, the government
has yet to come up with any remedial measures to ameliorate the sufferings of
the struggling masses.
It is the Supreme
Court that has understood the problem and directed the Centre and the
governments of Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana to provide free rations to
migrant workers in the National Capital Region without insisting on identity
proof and arrange transport for those migrants who want to return home. The
bench of Justices Ashok Bhushan and M.R. Shah said these governments must open
community kitchens and serve two meals a day to the migrant workers and their
families as the petition estimated 8 crore migrant workers are facing
severe hardship due to the second wave of Covid. It is now necessary for the
different State governments to take a hint and adhere to the recommendations of
the order.
However, this may not
be enough as employment opportunities need to be created both in the rural and
urban areas and this can be done by making available more funds for MGNREGA,
which has reduced in the current fiscal. Also some such programme needs to be
thought of in urban and semi-urban areas. Not just the poor workers, who are
stranded or have lost their jobs, there are sectors like construction, where
work has slowed down, while the problem is severe in hospitality and tourism,
aviation, jewellery manufacturing etc.
Finally, if the Covid
situation does not improve by June, or latest by July, sufferings would
accentuate, even if two meals are made available. For one class of citizens,
education has come to a standstill as also treatment of diseases, except
Covid-19. Government planners and economists should not just calculate the GDP
but evolve a strategy so that the lowest 30 per cent of the population do not
die of starvation or under nutrition. When will we hear something from the
authorities sitting in glass houses in New Delhi? ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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More...
-
2nd Wave Crisis: GOVT FIASCO, HEED ADVICE, By Dr, Oishee Mukherjee, 19 May 2021
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Communal Politics: SOARING DANGEROUS DIVIDE, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 12 May 2021
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Inevitable Blame Game: CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE, By DrS.Saraswathi, 6 May 2021
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Digital Divide: DELETING INEQUALITY VITAL,By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 28 April 2021
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