Spotlight

New Delhi, 25 November 2025

Europe’s Shadow War

WHY INDIA GRASPS STAKES

By Piotr Opalinski

(Expert, Centre for Intl Relations, Poland) 

Across Europe, a quiet but escalating shadow war is unfolding. A series of sabotage attempts, mysterious fires, drone incursions and hybrid operations—linked by investigators to Russian intelligence networks—has unsettled capitals from Brussels to Copenhagen, Tallinn and Warsaw. What once seemed like isolated anomalies now forms a coherent pattern: a sustained campaign designed to weaken Europe’s resilience, fracture its unity and test the limits of its security structures. 

For India, these developments are neither distant nor abstract. A country with decades of experience confronting terror networks, proxy violence and sophisticated attempts to destabilise its society and institutions, India understands with unusual clarity what Europe is now facing. This shared understanding of asymmetric threats creates an opening for a deeper India–Europe partnership in counter-sabotage, counter-terrorism and the protection of critical infrastructure. 

Russia’s Hybrid Aggression

European security services have quietly raised alarm bells about the intensifying scale of operations attributed to Russian-linked actors. These actions do not resemble classical espionage alone; they are part of a broader toolkit of “active measures” aimed at eroding confidence in public institutions and undermining logistical and military support for Ukraine. 

Investigations in Brussels have uncovered operatives involved in planning attacks against warehouses supplying defence equipment. In Denmark, naval authorities identified attempts to interfere with undersea communication cables and energy infrastructure. In Estonia, border guards have intercepted reconnaissance drones near bases supporting NATO logistics. And in Poland, authorities uncovered networks involved in sabotage, including an explosion on the railway line. 

Investigators have also linked earlier attempts to damage railway infrastructure and a series of arson incidents to operatives acting on behalf of Russian intelligence. Crucially, these incidents are not isolated. They reflect a strategic calculus: to stretch European security services thin, create political pressure by instilling a sense of vulnerability, and undermine the continent’s ability to act with coherence. 

A War Below Threshold

What Europe encounters today is an evolved form of aggression—deliberately calibrated to remain below the threshold of open conflict. This “grey-zone warfare” blends cyber operations, disinformation, coercion, covert action and deniable violence. Its purpose is not immediate destruction but attrition of political will. 

This playbook is familiar to India. From urban attacks to infiltration attempts, from drone drops across sensitive sectors to efforts targeting infrastructure and crowded public spaces, India has lived through every variant of hybrid pressure. It has built intelligence architectures, improved inter-agency coordination, hardened its infrastructure and invested in UAV mitigation systems before such conversations became mainstream in Europe. This accumulated experience—painful, hard-earned, and continuously refined—has real value for Europe at this moment. 

Why India Knows Europe’s Dilemma

India’s long struggle with violent extremism and cross-border sabotage has shaped a particular mindset: the recognition that asymmetric threats require anticipatory intelligence, institutional resilience and political steadiness. Europe is now learning this lesson in real time. Three parallels stand out: 

One, attacks on infrastructure.Europe’s transport corridors and logistics hubs face growing physical and hybrid threats. India’s energy and transport networks, primarily exposed to cyber risks, employ layered surveillance and coordinated efforts between civilian and military agencies, offering a practical example of enhancing infrastructure resilience in the digital domain. 

Two, use of drones for reconnaissance and attacks.Drone warfare is no longer restricted to military theatres. The detection of Russian-linked drones near sensitive sites in Latvia, Estonia and Poland mirrors patterns India has confronted along its northern and western perimeters. India’s investments in counter-UAV radars, jammers and electronic warfare are areas ripe for shared learning. 

Three, infiltration of criminal networks.European investigators confirm that several sabotage attempts were facilitated by criminal groups hired for operational tasks. India’s long history with networks operating in the grey space between illicit trade and political subversion provides analytical frameworks Europe could adapt. 

Europe’s Structural Weakness& India’s View

Europe’s challenge is not capability but structure. Security is fragmented across sovereign states, each with its own legal constraints and intelligence cultures. This creates inevitable gaps.India, by contrast, operates under a unified national-security framework where intelligence, counter-terrorism and border management feed into an integrated system. 

While India’s system is not without shortcomings, it has evolved through repeated crises into a coherent architecture.It took India years to build the platforms, protocols and doctrines it now possesses. Europe does not have that time. 

India–Europe Security Convergence

The geopolitical moment is unusually favourable for structured India–Europe security cooperation, still lagging behind shared concerns over supply-chain security, emerging technologies, and a stable global order. Collaboration could be particularly fruitful in three areas: intelligence sharing on hybrid threats, critical infrastructure protection, and counter-drone and electronic warfare efforts. 

The partnership offers tangible benefits for India. It provides access to European technologies, including advanced counter-drone systems, AI-driven surveillance, and next-generation cyber defence. India can also gain operational insights into hybrid tactics emerging on Europe’s eastern flank—scenarios it may face in the future. Finally, closer alignment with Europe’s strategic community strengthens India’s diplomatic and security posture in a rapidly shifting global environment. 

Shared Reality & Responsibility

The pattern emerging in Brussels, Denmark, Estonia and Poland is not peripheral turbulence. It signals a structural shift in Europe’s security environment. The continent is entering a phase where sabotage, coercive technologies and deniable proxies will become persistent tools of statecraft.

India has already lived through this reality. Because it has, it possesses both credibility and practical experience to contribute meaningfully to Europe’s evolving defence posture. 

This is not merely a matter of exchanging best practices. It is an opportunity to craft a new pillar of India–Europe partnership, rooted in a shared understanding that the threats of the 21st century do not obey borders, treaties or conventional definitions of warfare. 

If Europe and India act together, they can build a framework of resilience that goes far beyond crisis response. They can help shape the norms, technologies and partnerships needed to defend open societies in a world where the grey zone is quickly becoming the primary theatre of contestation.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 24 November 2025

Victory Cheers, Debt Tears

BIHAR REPAYS Rs 63 Cr A DAY

By Shivaji Sarkar 

The Bihar election delivered a clear mandate, but the celebrations mask a harder truth: the state is walking into a period of acute fiscal strain powered by an explosion of welfare promises. The politics worked; the economics now begins to bite. 

The immediate political gains from targeted benefits and cash transfers are undeniable. They create visible impact, reach millions quickly, and generate electoral goodwill. But the economic price of these commitments is now coming into sharper focus. 

There is a sharp political question as well. The mandate though massive has peculiarities. Groups in the Opposition despite higher votes get fewer seats. Those with the power surprising did very well with least or no losses. Some like the Asadullah Owaisi’s MIM has got returned five of the six contestants. And LJP-RV has windfall of 19 seats against one in the last Bihar house. A miracle indeed! 

It is to be observed how such a massive mandate would impact or reshape Bihar’s economy. Early assessments suggest that the NDA’s new welfare promises could cost over Rs 40,000 crore in FY26—approximately 4 percent of Bihar’s GDP, Rs 2 lakh crore in five years. For a state already operating with tight fiscal margins, this is not just a budgetary challenge; it signals a structural shift in how development would be financed or get constrained. 

Bihar’s public debt has surged to Rs 4.06 lakh crore, with the state paying or Rs 63 crore in daily interest or Rs 23014 crore for 2025-26. It plans net borrowings of Rs 32,918 crore, pushing its debt-to-GDP ratio to nearly 40 percent —one of the highest in India. Much of Bihar’s capital receipts now come from loans. 

This is despite the state recording strong nominal GDP growth of roughly 11 percent over the past decade. Alongside public liabilities, microfinance debt has also climbed, with outstanding loans reaching Rs 57,712 crore by March 2025. 

The Rise of Fiscal Populism

Bihar is not alone in adopting expansive welfare promises. Across India, welfare spending has become central to election campaigns. But Bihar’s situation is distinct because of its economic baseline: low per-capita income, limited industrialisation, high dependence on central transfers, and a workforce heavily reliant on migration. In such a context, the political incentive to use welfare as a compensatory mechanism becomes overwhelming. 

The election underscored this shift. Cash transfers for women, free electricity units, employment stipends, and expanded social-security schemes energised voter turnout. For large sections of the electorate, these benefits are not luxuries—they are substitutes for absent incomes, unstable livelihoods, or failing public services.Welfare spending that compensates for structural weaknesses is difficult to reverse, politically toxic to reform, and economically expensive to sustain. 

A Budget Under Pressure

Bihar’s fiscal architecture leaves little room for manoeuvre even in stable years. The revenue support is dwindling. Capital expenditure—roads, power, irrigation, infrastructure—depends heavily on central allocations or external borrowings. An aside more the capital expenses more are shadowy unrecorded expenses. 

Over the past decade, Bihar has received far higher central financial support under the NDA government compared to the UPA period. Between 2004–2014, Bihar received about Rs 2.8 lakh crore, whereas between 2014–2024 it received roughly ₹9.23 lakh crore—a threefold increase. 

The addition of Rs 40,000-plus crore in welfare commitments dramatically narrows fiscal flexibility. To finance these schemes, Bihar must do one of three things:Borrow more, increasing its debt-to-GSDP ratio, cut capital spending, slowing long-term growth, depend even more on central transfers, reducing autonomy.Higher borrowing inflates debt servicing, reduced capex suppresses employment and growth, and heavy dependence on the Centre erodes Bihar’s independent policy capacity. 

The Freebie Trap: Political Consumables

Economists often distinguish between welfare that builds capacity and welfare that buys political loyalty. The former includes school meals, health investments, education subsidies, and skill-building programmes. The latter tends to involve unconditional cash transfers, consumption subsidies, or politically timed giveaways. 

Bihar’s new welfare package contains some elements of capacity building but is largely tilted toward political consumables. When welfare becomes permanent and productivity remains stagnant, a state risks entering a freebie trap: rising fiscal commitments without corresponding increases in economic output. 

It can result in lower labour force participation, stunted private investment and chronic fiscal deficits, forcing more borrowing and higher interest burdens.For Bihar, which needs sustained private investment, industrial clusters, and job-rich growth, this trade-off is particularly severe. 

The Opportunity Cost

Bihar’s development challenge has always been structural: how to generate jobs within the state so workers don’t have to migrate. The NDA’s manifesto promise of 10million jobs is ambitious, but job creation on this scale requires deep reforms—industrial land availability, reliable power, simplified regulations, agro-processing capacity, and public-private partnerships. 

Every rupee diverted toward recurring welfare is a rupee not invested in these foundations.Large welfare schemes create an illusion of progress—mask the absence of long-term reforms. This is where the political-economy risk becomes visible. Welfare can secure the next election, but development secures the next generation. When political incentives favour the former over the latter, states stagnate. 

Macro-Economic Spillover: Implications for India

Bihar’s fiscal stress matters not only for the state but for India’s broader economic trajectory. The most populous state’s economy shapes external migration, national labour markets, consumption demand, and welfare expenditure patterns across the Hindi heartland. If Bihar’s growth slows because of fiscal overextension, three national-level effects may follow: greater pressure on central finances, as Bihar seeks more grants and transfers; slower demographic dividend realisation, as a large young workforce remains underemployed. 

It promotes a competitive populism syndrome.The Centre faces a difficult balancing act. Too much central support could embolden other states to pursue fiscally unsustainable models. 

What Bihar Must Do

Bihar must rationalise welfare, broaden revenues, and prioritise growth-focused capital investment to avoid fiscal strain and convert election promises into sustainable development. Without clear prioritisation, Bihar risks drowning in its own promises. 

The Bihar election has reshaped the political landscape, but it has also placed a heavy economic burden on the state’s future. Welfare-driven politics may deliver votes, but it may not deliver the development Bihar desperately needs. 

The next five years will determine whether Bihar uses its political mandate to break from the freebie trap—or sinks deeper into it. The fiscal path it chooses is no longer just a state issue; it is a national economic variable with implications far beyond Patna.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 22 November 2025

SC Verdict On Bills’ Row

GUIDING GOVERNOR-GOVT GENIALITY?  

By Insaf 

The lid has been put on the infamous Governor-elected State government rows. On Thursday last, the Supreme Court ruled that courts cannot fix timeline for President, Governor to act on bills passed by State Assemblies. This follows President Murmu questioning the courts power under Article 143 of the Constitution. At the same time, the five-judge Constitution Bench cautioned, “inaction that is prolonged, unexplained and indefinite” by the Governor “will certainly invite limited judicial scrutiny”. It noted: while “Article 361 of the Constitution is an absolute bar on judicial review in relation to personally subjecting the Governor to judicial proceedings. However, it cannot be relied upon to negate the limited scope of judicial review that this Court is empowered to exercise in situations of prolonged inaction by the Governor under Article 200.” Hopefully, this should settle the battle that states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala have had with their Governors sitting on Bills. Both have welcomed the top court’s opinion, despite it negating the Tamil Nadu High Court putting a deadline of three months for the President and Governor for withholding assent to 10 Bills. Importantly, the accusation that withholding of Bills indefinitely is ‘against federalism and democracy’, and the Centre mustn’t indulge it, should no longer remain. Indeed, the SC order strikes a delicate balance Centre-State relations and a remedy to constitutional impasse created by Governors, particularly in Opposition-ruled States. Will it hold good? Time will tell.   

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Bihar’s Fine Balance

Bihar gives Nitish Kumar a record standing ovation. On Thursday last, he was sworn in as Chief Minister for the tenth time! At the grand swearing-in ceremony at Patna’s historic Gandhi Maidan, a cabinet of 26 ministers was sworn in -- eight from the upper caste, five Dalits, and 14 OBCs and EBCs. Senior BJP leaders Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha retained their position as deputy CMs. A fine balancing act. The three-day session of the Assembly shall start from Wednesday, where Speaker and Deputy Speaker will be elected and new members will take oath. A fractured Opposition with the Mahagathbandhan reduced to a mere 35 seats, shall allow it a smooth run. In fact, Bihar results have further dampened the prospects of an anti-BJP coalition. The march of INDIA bloc is under question. And, Bihar has upped the ante for the BJP. The saffron party is already preparing for its next big challenge. It appears of the four States going to the polls next year, West Bengal is a top priority. Prime Minister set the ball rolling saying victory in Bihar has paved the way for the BJP’s triumph in Bengal and that it shall now put an end to the ‘Jungle Raj in that state as well.’ The big question is will it be able to do away with the ‘outsider’ tag and defeat the formidable ‘daughter of Bengal’ Mamata Banerjee. What is certain though is that it will contest the election under the leadership of Modi again. Can didi halt the stride?

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Mahayuti Churning

All is not well within the Mahayuti government in Maharashtra. It’s Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde has been making a beeline to Delhi with concerns over the state BJP’s interference and ‘lowering his stature as a leader’.  The last such meeting of the dozens he has had so far after the State Assembly polls was with Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Wednesday last. He voiced his displeasure over state BJP chief Ravindra Chavan’s ‘aggressive overdrive’ in poaching his leaders, especially in Kalyan-Dombivali area which is his son and MP Shrikhant Shinde’s backyard. But the other side is belligerent, taking umbrage over his ministers’ absence at the weekly Cabinet meeting and telling him that Chief Minister Fadnavis and the party was working in government’s interest. Be that as it may, the Opposition has mocked Shinde’s visit to Delhi saying he’s pleading ‘father, help me’ and that the saffron party is planning to break the alliance! Shinde, however, says all is well and local polls will be fought together. All eyes will be on it.

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Midway Change In Karnataka?

Churnings are also being heard in adjoining Karnataka. The tussle for leadership change and handing baton to Dy Chief Minister and state PCC chief D K Shivakumar is hotting up. His group of MLAs are camping/heading to Delhi to urge High Command to give Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s kursi to him following the government completing 2-and-half years of the five, on Thursday last. While Shivakumar claims he’s unaware of developments, loyalists plan a hostile strategy to pressurise Siddaramaiah to honour ‘power-sharing pact arrived at formation of the government in May 2023, wherein the deputy would take over’. Some MLAs have already met party President Kharge and shall meet General Secretary (Organisation) Venugopal and other senior party leaders. They claim: Siddaramaiah has made a promise and should honour it. Whereas CM says the debate is unnecessary as he had conveyed to High Command that a Cabinet reshuffle could be considered after completion of halfway mark. Guess, it’s on the strength of majority of ministers backing him. Will the tussle get ugly, is the big question.

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SIR Deaths

The ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has triggered a major controversy. ‘Intense work pressure’ is alleged to have led to deaths of those appointed as Booth Level Officer (BLO) at district levels. On Wednesday last, a school lecturer in Rajasthan died after complaining of chest pain and his family claiming it was due to stress of completing the task. Five cases of deaths have been reported from Kerala and West Bengal other than Rajasthan of the 12 states where the exercise of distributing enumeration forms among electors, collecting them and digitising the data on an app began on November 4 and is slated to be completed on December 4. There’s a common complaint-- long hours, unrealistic targets leading to a breaking point! Protests have erupted in these States. West Bengal has added another dimension: nine persons have died, of which six are suicides, allegedly due to fear and anxiety over being excluded from the voter list during this exercise! ECI must take note. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 21 November 2025

Ukraine War Prolongs

DELHI, WARSAW CONCERNS

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions) 

It’s been three years, eight months and three weeks since Russia invaded the country of Ukraine, and to date, Russia has failed to agree on a ceasefire. Earlier this week, Ukraine faced its fiercest battle in months as Russia attacked Ukraine’s eastern town of Pokrovsk. Russian forces pressed into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, as Kyiv’s military mounted a stout defence. Moreover, as winter approaches, it adds another danger to the fight as the frozen grounds are most likely to favour the Russian armoury. At the time of writing, the Foreign Minister of India is visiting Russia and has met Vladimir Putin. 

The city of Pokrovsk burns as Russia deploys 150000 troops, making a grinding progress in the battlefield of eastern Ukraine. While President Trump’s effort to end the war remains at a halt, as Putin refuses the ceasefire in Ukraine. The world seems to standby as an observer as Ukraine desperately fights to defend its sovereignty. 

After 18 months of siege and enormous losses, capturing Pokrovsk has become something more for Russia, something more symbolic, to sell victory to its own people. Militarily, it is a pile of rubble; however, given the number of soldiers and equipment expended, it simply is too big a defeat to walk away from. On the other side, the Ukrainian military intelligence continues to attack key Russian air defence assets in occupied Crimea, and Crimea continues to look incredibly vulnerable to the Russians. 

To add to this vulnerable situation, Russia is faced with another fuel crisis. Russia is an oil-rich country; the country’s oil is now at an all-time low, as Ukraine attacks multiple Russian oil refineries, with almost 5 attacks on the Saratov refinery by this fall. Ukraine has targeted 55% of Russia’s oil refineries, leading to a decline in the income Russia generates from its fuel and other refined products. But Russia still has a good amount of crude oil that can be refined elsewhere. 

While Russia stated that it has no plans to attack NATO, Russia’s pressing on more Ukrainian territories has made the surrounding nations double up their defence spending. Poland, one of the biggest suppliers of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, also prepares for war with Russia if it decides to invade the Baltic states. Poland’s President vows to spend 4.7% GDP on defence by this year, and on the defence manufacturing side, Poland is scaling up artillery production, especially 155 mm howitzer shells, to support both its own defence and Ukraine’s war needs. 

The question of this attack, thus, remains not if but when. As Poland continues to be a critical logistics hub for Ukraine, with large volumes of humanitarian and military aid transiting through it also acts as NATO's frontline, the cornerstone of Europe's defence. Contrary to the generous military and humanitarian aid being sent, the country is not overly eager to send its troops on the ground. This remains largely because Poland wants to keep its troops at the borders for security, as well as because of the bilateral and historical tensions between the two countries over the years. 

In the midst of this, there is a rising shift in public sentiment. Security polling shows growing war fatigue, and according to a peace-security survey, only about half of Poles now support continued aid to Ukraine, and just 15% support sending Polish troops. Another survey (CBOS) found 55% of Poles believe the war should end even if Ukraine has to cede territory or independence. However, despite these doubts, Poland’s leadership still claims a strong role.

Poland’s geographical position renders it highly sensitive to spillover risks from the conflict. Incidents involving Russian drones entering Polish airspace, and the subsequent scramble of NATO aircraft, have heightened awareness of escalation pathways and underscored Poland’s vulnerability as a bordering state. 

In response, Polish policymakers have advocated for strengthened NATO deterrence measures and have reopened debates on enhanced airspace protection for Ukraine, including proposals for a NATO-backed air-defence shield or a limited no-fly enforcement mechanism.

For an outside observer, Poland’s contributions reflect both principled support for Ukrainian sovereignty and pragmatic awareness of the strategic risks posed by Russian revisionism. As the conflict continues, Poland’s decisions will remain pivotal in determining not only Ukraine’s prospects but the broader stability of Europe’s eastern frontier. 

India on the other hand, still appears to be neutral which implies support to Russian position on the war. Such a stance is causing considerable concern in European countries including Poland and the United States. Poland and Europe would want India to distance itself from Russia on Ukraine war or give a hand in bringing about a ceasefire. 

Talking about India-Poland ties, they were taken to new heights as a strategic partnership was signed during Indian Prime Minister’s visit to the country in 2024 after a long gap, en route to Kiev.  A Five-Year Action Plan was initiated for 2024-28. This laid out priority areas for deepening cooperation. The areas included political dialogue and security, trade and investment, climate, energy, mining, science and technology, transport and connectivity, counter-terrorism, cyber security, health cooperation, people-to-people relation and cultural exchange. 

Both India and Poland are fastest-growing economies, Poland among the European countries and India in Asia. Both countries are seeking to enhance their respective roles in international affairs. Given the similarity in security concerns vis-à-vis Russia and China bordering both countries, and common national interest, it is in order that the ties should be deepened. The elephant in the room is the Ukrainian war. 

India-Poland ties are critical for both countries in mutual interest and learning. India borders a big belligerent power, China that has taken Indian territories in 1962 war and is claiming more within India’s sovereign land. Beijing actively supported Islamabad which fought a limited war on 7^th-9^th May 2025 with India that ended in temporary ceasefire. According to India’s defence policy, the war, Operation Sindoor has not been withdrawn on Pakistan’s request. It has just been suspended. 

Likewise, or worse, Warsaw faces another authoritarian country Russia which had in the past invaded and occupied Poland, which borders Russia as well as Ukraine and therefore, is highly vulnerable to Russian expansion and the spill-over of the current war. Both New Delhi and Warsaw have similar security risks.  

Although Warsaw is not making this an issue in expanding bilateral relations, New Delhi should be sensitive to Poland’s precarious position. The Polish embassy in New Delhi is organising discourses with several think tanks and geo-political strategists. Polish institutions working on international affairs are sensitising Indian public, particularly the media on Ukrainian war. New Delhi should reciprocate with similar activities in Poland. That should certainly clear the air and align both countries’ foreign policies on various issues including Ukrainian war. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)