Open Forum

New Delhi, 7 January 2026 

Resilient Economy

INDIA SET TO FACE CHALLENGES

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

With the onset of the new year, it must be admitted that the trends appear quite encouraging. The pacts with Oman and New Zealand in December can be said to be favourable for India and specially in a critical geopolitical situation with a 50 percent tariff imposed by the US still hanging over the country. India has steadily overcome the problem and has moved ahead, overtaking Japan as the world’s fourth largest economy with GDP valued at $4.18 trillion and is steadily on track to replace Germany by 2030 as the third largest economy.   

The trade deals are no doubt encouraging and, according to Prime Minister Modi, these “will create many new opportunities for growth, innovation and employment for our youth”. Moreover, experts feel that the new year augurs well as 2025 witnessed pushed through one of the most expansive reform agendas in recent years, overhauling tax laws, labour rules, business regulations as the government sought to improve governance and reduce compliance costs to attract investment and position the economy for long term growth. 

Significantly, the Indian economy grew at 8.2 percent in the July-Sept. quarter as a strong comeback in the manufacturing sector and robust services activity helped it clock the fastest pace of expansion in six quarters. With the Reserve Bank of India cutting repo rates by 26 basis points, resulting in softening of home loan rates, the trend is obviously quite encouraging and augurs well for the economy, more so in such geopolitical conditions, which are not so favourable. According to Modi, “it reflects the impact of pro-growth policies and reforms. It also reflects the hard work and enterprise of our people”. 

Added to this is the recent report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which called for structural reforms to support India’s economic development and encouraged the government to build human capital, boost female labour force participation, maintain its public investment momentum and strengthen the business environment. The IMF board noted that deeper trade integration would strengthen India’s competitiveness and attract more foreign investment while greater focus on R&D and innovation would support productivity-led growth. Advancing the green transition, supported by expanded access to concessional financing was also highlighted towards moving to resilient growth. 

The very fact that the report acknowledged India’s strong economic performance and resilience which benefited from sound macroeconomic policies and reforms are indicative of a positive trend in the economy. The recent spurt in growth may be attributed to the result of push factors right from the Union budget’s tax cuts that were followed by the goods and service tax reforms and the impact of these may also be felt in the third quarter as well. Thus, an annual growth rate of over 7 percent has been projected by the RBI for the current fiscal. However, what is of concern is the weakening of the rupee with merchandise imports outpacing exports and FDI slowing amid global uncertainty. 

It goes without saying that India has to emerge as a strong manufacturing hub with low wage possibilities. While there is much talk of the hire and fire policy being implemented as also keeping a check on wages of workers to compete with competitors like Bangladesh, Vietnam and even China, it needs to be pointed out that depriving workers in the unorganized sector cannot be a solution. On the other hand, the use of low-cost technology solutions may be inducted to meet quality parameters which find global acceptance. At same time, the present labour reforms are in the right spirit and may not deprive workers.   

Analysing the economic situation, it can be said to be quite encouraging with the government eager to make investments in various specialised areas, keeping in view the need for import substitution. The special focus on indigenous defence production will boost the economy in the coming few years as experts feel that India may become a mid-sized exporter in the next three years or so. Already the country has made considerable progress in shipbuilding and manufacture of small aircraft and helicopters. According to the central government, the country’s indigenous defence production hit a record Rs 127,434 crore in 2023-24, a 174 per cent surge from Rs 46,429 crore in 2014-15. India is on track to achieve a target of Rs 1.75 lakh crore in defence production in the current fiscal year.  

However, what is needed is additional efforts by the private sector to boost manufacture through modernisation and expansion of existing units, which, to an extent, has already started. The fund raising by companies and the induction of technology and the much talked about AI may go into manufacturing of large products to make them globally acceptable as per international standards. The Tier-II and Tier-III should be the new engines of growth where, in most cities, infrastructure has vastly improved. In these cities, private sector is already quite active and there needs to be a further boost to manufacturing.  

In the new year, areas of concern are the weakening rupee, continued flight of foreign portfolio investors etc. Certain things need to be given priority, the most important being the green transition. While the power sector is under the active consideration of the government, controlling emissions in the transport sector must be seriously considered. Also, efforts would have to be made to increase female participation in the labour force, as rightly pointed out by the IMF. The very recent opening of nuclear power to private investors offers a big opportunity to big corporate houses to plan something in this direction. 

Meanwhile, the Centre is expected to give a thrust to capital expenditure in the forthcoming budget, hoping that a multiplier effect along with higher consumption demand will boost investment and economic activity. The focus will be on Railways, which may get a higher budgetary allocation of around Rs 2.7 lakh crore in the next fiscal, considering the increased number of projects against Rs 2.5 lakh crore allocated in the current financial year. Laying new tracks and procurement of modern coaches will obviously get priority in the increased allocations. Recently,the industry body CII urged the government to push institutional reforms and fiscal consolidation in the budget and this momentum must continue. All this portends to an encouraging trend, and it can’t be denied that the Indian economy is gaining in strength as a major global force.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Spotlight

New Delhi, 3 January 2025

2026 China Forecast

STABILITY UNDER CONTROL

By Maciej Gaca

(Expert, Centre For International Relations, Poland) 

The year 2025 did not bring China the strategic shift or adjustment to its governance model that some external observers had anticipated. From a systemic perspective, it was rather a year of completion of the direction that had become clearly outlined after 2020 and was subsequently confirmed in Party documents and institutional practice. Instead of signals of liberalisation or a technocratic reset, a consistent consolidation of centralisation and control mechanisms was visible. 

Accordingly, 2026 does not appear to be a turning point, but rather the first full year of operation of the mechanisms that were gradually implemented and tested between 2020-2025. The transition from the adjustment phase to routine is of crucial prognostic significance. It means that state actions will no longer be justified by the exceptional nature of the situation but presented as a standard way of governing. 

China is not in a transitional state after 2025. Rather, it is entering a period of stabilisation in a model that combines high short-term resilience with decreasing adaptive flexibility. The state apparatus remains capable of absorbing shocks and imposing order, but it is increasingly difficult to generate development impulses independent of the decision-making center. This paradox of stability achieved at the expense of dynamism is a key starting point for 2026 forecast. 

Power Architecture

Analysing China’s power architecture requires a shift away from the classic division between party and state as distinct spheres. In governance, this boundary has been systematically blurred in recent years, with the party remaining the key decision-making entity, simultaneously acting as the political center, cadre apparatus, and overarching institutional regulator. In this arrangement, the state functions as the executive, while law and technology serve as tools for regulating behavior. 

In 2026, the state no longer functions as an autonomous political actor. Its role is to operationally implement decisions made within party structures and to manage its consequences. This is evident in both economic policy and internal security. Ministries, local authorities, and regulatory agencies operate within increasingly narrow discretionary limits, and the system of personnel accountability rewards procedural compliance over initiative. 

Law plays a special role in the architecture of power. The concept of the rule of law has not been abandoned, but rather reinterpreted. Law ceases to function as a boundary of power and begins to operate as an instrument for managing behavior. Expanding the definitions of state security, public order, and national interest allows for the inclusion of increasingly broader areas of social and economic life in the sphere of security-related regulations. 

This logic is evident in both central legislation, implementing regulations, and judicial practice. The authorities do not communicate the uniqueness of these solutions but present them as part of normalising the system in the face of new threats. As a result, the 2026 law stabilises the system, but at the expense of flexibility and trust. Stability relies increasingly on effective enforcement and less on social acceptance. 

The fourth pillar of government architecture is technology. Data analysis systems, digital infrastructure, and monitoring tools are being integrated with the administrative and legal apparatus. Technology functions not as an autonomous sector of innovation, but as an infrastructure of governance. The power architecture in China is therefore characterised by a high degree of control and short-term stability, while limiting capacity for self-correction. The system remains functional, but increasingly expensive to maintain. 

The Economy

China’s economic forecast requires adjustments to 2025 estimates, not because the system’s fundamental parameters have changed, but because the growth management mechanism, which was still considered a temporary solution in 2025, has become entrenched. It becomes part of permanent political and economic architecture. 

In 2025, the authorities’ primary goal was to prevent a sharp slowdown and maintain growth at a politically acceptable level. Their instruments included selective credit support, local fiscal interventions, real estate market control, and stabilisation of the financial sector. These measures mitigated the risk of a systemic crisis but failed to unleash new sources of growth dynamics. Therefore, 2026 begins in conditions of relative stability, but without any indication of structural transformation. 

Economic growth will increasingly be driven by administrative decisions rather than market processes. The projected growth rate, around 4–4.5%, reflects the state’s ability to allocate credit, steer investments, and mitigate financial risks. The real estate sector remains an area of managed stabilisation. The goal is not to return to the expansion model of a decade ago, but to limit balance sheet effects and prevent debt escalation. 

One of the key elements of the 2025-2026 forecast revision is continuation of weak domestic consumption. The authorities have not opted for broad redistributive measures that could significantly boost demand. Controlling fiscal and financial risks remains a priority, even at the expense of slower domestic demand growth. This means that consumption will not become the main driver of growth in 2026. 

From an international perspective, China will remain an active exporter, and its trade surplus will be a pillar of macroeconomic stability. At the same time, friction with trading partners will increase, stemming from the perception of the Chinese model as asymmetric and subsidised. For the EU, this means further pressure on protective and regulatory instruments. 

Technology, Law & Security

In China law, technology, and security form a coherent governance system, with each element mutually reinforcing. Law does not function as a neutral framework, but rather as an instrument for regulating behavior. Technology enhances the effectiveness of enforcement, and security serves as the overarching interpretative category for political and regulatory decisions. 

The phenomenon of lawfare—understood as the strategic use of law to achieve state goals—is structural in nature in China. Regulations regarding data, cybersecurity, the activities of foreign entities, and academic cooperation are not responses to individual threats, but rather elements of a lasting institutional order. Law acts preventively here, limiting actors’ room for maneuver even before open conflict erupts. 

Technology serves as the infrastructure for this model. Data analysis systems, digital platforms, and monitoring tools enable targeted enforcement and early identification of problematic behavior. In 2026, technology is not an area of deregulation, but one of the main channels for consolidating control. 

China is promoting its own approach to the relationship between the state, technology, and the market through infrastructure projects, technical standards, and international forums. This process does not lead to an immediate change in global rules, but rather gradually increases the acceptability of solutions that strengthen the state’s role in information management. 

Foreign Policy

Chinese foreign policy remains driven by the logic of mitigating systemic risks. Beijing avoids actions that would lead to irreversible confrontation, preferring to gradually push the boundaries of acceptable behavior. This strategy relies on actions below the threshold of open conflict. 

Taiwan remains the most important area of this policy. The pressure is multidimensional: military, economic, informational, and legal. Its goal is not to achieve a quick resolution, but rather to gradually narrow Taipei’s decision-making space and normalise China’s presence in the island’s surroundings. 

The war in Ukraine serves as a source of observation for Beijing, not a model to be replicated. The scale of sanctions, the economic costs, and the long-term mobilisation of the West all serve as arguments for caution. At the same time, the conflict is being used in relations with Europe as part of a narrative of responsibility and need for stabilisation. China's actions do not take the form of an overt threat, but rather rely on the selective exploitation of economic, regulatory, and political dependencies. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi,6 January 2026

Rot And Stain

PAN-INDIA APATHY

By Poonam I Kaushish

“Complain to Administration. What Administration? They are corrupt, we pay them. We, are the Administration.” The chilling harsh reality of Mera Bharat Mahan!

Be it Capital Delhi, Indore, Gandhinagar, Bengaluru or Goa, the story is the same: human carelessness. A tell-tale of total apathy, insensitive Administrations under various State Governments. Of rulers who ignore experts who in turn, blame it on lessons not learnt by successive Governments. Big deal, if these “mistakes” extract a heavy toll of human life. After all, aam aadmi is just a statistic in Government records. 

In Delhi’s Laxmi Nagar a man is thrashed, his wife pulled by her hair, hit in the face, kicked and molested, their son stripped naked and beaten with iron rods by four men outside their house as policemen watched. Their crime? Asking their gym caretaker to vacate the premises, yesterday. 

In Noida, a woman kills her live-in partner. In Bhiwani a social media influencer confesses to choking her husband to death with her dupatta along-with her boyfriend. In Hampi two women are raped and three men thrown into a canal. An 80-year-old grandpa rapes a five-year-old. So, what’s the issue? 

Stray incidents? No. Graze a car? You can be shot dead. Nobody sees red at the sight of blood. Even if some is spilled in an over-populated nation, what difference does it make? In Delhi gang wars are passé. The dichotomy? Gangs are operating from jails? Are jail authorities hand-in-glove? Why is no action being taken?

New Year started on a somber note in India’s cleanest city Indore where 15 people died and over 200 are hospitalized after drinking contaminated water. Thanks, to mixing of sewage with drinking water. Residents’ complaints of dirty water over two months fell on deaf ears, as always, till calamity struck.

Worse, the Administration ignored a Jal Jeevan Mission recent assessment that 36.7% of drinking water specially in rural areas was not potable. As it had 2019 CAG report highlighting water contamination in Bhopal and Indore wherein between 2013-18 4,481 water samples were found unfit for drinking and 5.45 lakh  cases of waterborne diseases were reported, but as always, it was dumped in raddi. 

The story is par on course in Gandhinagar and Bengaluru as they too grapple with sewage-contaminated drinking water. Over 76 typhoid cases are reported from the former while latter’s residents report widespread diarrhea, foul-smelling frothy water with thick layers of dark sewage silt. 

In Delhi 18% of 15,600 kms water supply network is over three decades old avers Delhi Jal Board. A tragedy waiting to happen. Just like the recent fire in a Goa nightclub. Or the brutal killing of a sarpanch in Punjab’s village.  

Questionably, why does Government react only when tragedy strikes? Isn’t it the Administrators job to ensure clean water and hygienic environment to live? What do we pay taxes for? Certainly, not for advertisements, statues of our narcissist leaders. Who will be held accountable and which head will roll? None. 

After all, politicians, bureaucracy and police are three sides of a triangle. All viewed as venal and incompetent. Criminals in khadi hustling and muscling to fulfil people’s aspirations. Who now have taken recourse to “out of court settlements” and extortions. 

But invariably, a businessman is arrested. Why not the bureaucrat or Administration which gives permission for irregularities by taking bribes? Are they not more answerable? And should they too be not put behind bars? Alas, they go scot free .Simply because, Babus clan up together. A classic case of pot calling the kettle black.   

Bluntly, everything is kaam chalao! Exacerbated by infrastructure neglect, unregulated construction and free-for-all development with authorities failing to implement crucial preventive measures, resulting in essential tasks like lack of preventive maintenance leading to clogged drainage systems and obstructed natural water flow channels. 

The way indiscriminate urbanisation is happening, no politician, Party or Administration is willing to stop it. Forgetting, indiscriminate urbanisation will bring similar incidents in new forms. Whereby, we are creating a cocoon around ourselves that one day we will die like silkworms. 

Predictably, politicians cursorily go through the ritual political circus: lament crisis, visit places to assess damage, set-up crisis management teams, suspend official till the story ‘dies’ and vouch help to people. Patting themselves satisfied that they have done their bit. 

Focus is more on emergency response than preventing disasters and short-term development goals over long-term public safety. There is no routine maintenance and infrastructure investment. This reactive approach eventually leads to higher loss of lives and property due to lack of institutional preparedness and inefficiencies. 

Consequently, we stare at rot and stain of pan-India apathy and a public health crisis: disease outbreaks, existing environmental degradation, urban decay and proliferating of slums. The administrative system has practically collapsed. A life-style of Nano Yuppiesim has brought forth macro consequences of socio-political environment neglect. Where, another crisis threatens.

The truth? Even as we have achieved political and economic freedom we still remain hostage to errant elements of society. Which speaks volumes about growing societal acceptability of the idea of instant justice.

One could argue this is because of our failed criminal justice system and police high-handedness whereby methods being used to terrorise people have been perfected. Whereby, judicial procedures to check legitimacy and validity of Government functioning and officials has become a victim of prejudices against citizens.

While courts revel in non-deliverance of speedy justice. Instead, they appear keener to protect the rights of authorities who subvert the law than perform their job of legal oversight. As a consequence, hapless citizens are crushed by procedural injustice.

Perhaps, one of the main reasons for people taking law into their own hands is because courts only act as meek protesters at best and mute spectators at worst. Resulting in lawlessness being exacerbated manifold wherein legal falsehoods and subversion of due procedure are considered par on course.

Where does India go from here? In an environment wherein adoption of strong-arm tactics to extract one’s pound of flesh has become second nature, it’s time to cry halt to increasing degradation and realise good governance and accountability is hallmark of a Government. Our polity needs to pull up their bootstraps and focus on long-term not short-term planning.

We need to break free from this trance of dark carnival through collective resistance. Non-governance, lackadaisical approach alongside a ki pharak painda hai attitude is unacceptable. Stringent and timely action is vital. Life is not collating numbers, but flesh and blood with beating hearts. Can we just let them bleed?

Remember Aldous Huxley words: Men do not learn from lessons of history which is the most important of lessons of history. Else history will repeat as farce! ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 31 December 2025

Private Universities

WILL SC ORDER MAKE A DENT?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

At the fag end of the year, a landmark judgment of the Supreme Court has brought into sharp focus the functioning of private and deemed universities across the country. What began as a student’s grievance has culminated in an unprecedented nationwide audit of India’s vast higher education sector. 

In a sweeping directive, the apex court has ordered the Centre, all States and UTs, and the University Grants Commission to file personally sworn affidavits detailing the establishment of these institutions, their governance structures, regulatory approvals, and compliance with the statutory requirement of operating on a not-for-profit basis.While such scrutiny is long overdue, the real test will lie in whether the new year witnesses a meaningful and rigorous review of private universities, exposing systemic deficiencies rather than allowing the exercise to remain a mere procedural formality. 

A central question being raised—rightly so—by a large section of scholars is whether education in India has steadily become profit-oriented. This reality can scarcely be denied, as evidenced by the growing presence of business houses establishing universities and academic institutions across the country. The more fundamental issue, however, is why such business enterprises continue to enjoy a range of concessions and regulatory leniencies while contributing little of tangible value to society. This imbalance has seldom been interrogated with the seriousness it deserves, either by governments or by civil society, resulting in the normalisation of a model that prioritises commercial gain over the public purpose of education. 

It is a well-known fact that private universities charge exorbitant rates and are profit oriented.  Most business houses find education a profitable and safe business to invest where risk involved is virtually nil. Moreover, in the name of being not-for-profit, they get land from state governments at highly subsidized rates. Recall, in 2017, a Supreme Court verdict invalidated engineering degrees awarded via unapproved distance mode to deemed universities and barred them from conducting such courses without clear regulatory approval. 

The current order is far-reaching as it questions how private universities acquire land, appoint leadership, handle finances and whether they have credible grievance redressal mechanism. The demand for personal accountability – from chief secretaries to the UGC chairperson – signals judicial impatience with status quo. Besides, private universities, many of which operate under different central laws, are rattled. 

The big question is what role the government has in the matter?Prime Minister Modi has been criticizing Macaulay for anglicising the Indian way of thinking, but the spread of quality education happened due to the efforts of the British. Both the Centre and states have not invested adequately to ensure spread of education to all parts of the country, including the rural and backward districts and allowed private parties to take over the business of education. There is no monitoring of fees being charged, whether seats are reserved for poor and marginalised sections and whether these institutions confirm to guidelines of the authorities, either by the Centre or states. 

Education being on the concurrent list, both are liable to ensure the right of every individual to education. But if we are to assume that private and deemed universities give quality education, why can a farmer’s son not get the facility? These institutions are set up on huge land which now the new apex court order has asked the authorities to investigate. But it is feared that vested interests will find a way out to protect them as these institutions are expanding rapidly and making enormous profits. 

It would have been better if the court had found out a civil society organisation or an academic association in each state and asked them to file a report, simultaneously with that of the state governments. In this connection, it would not be impertinent to say that most political parties and bureaucrats would tend to protect the owners of private and deemed universities, or else how can they manage so much land near metros and big towns, which surround the educational complexes? 

Has there been any investigation of the process of admissions to these institutions by any of the state governments? If there is any such report, why has it not been put in the public domain? The undersigned, who was travelling to Delhi a few years back, was told by a family that they were asked to pay Rs 80 lakh extra (apart from usual fees) for their son’s admission in a private medical college in Kolkata. There are various such examples and hardly a very few private medical colleges admit students strictly on merit without any underhand charges. Thus, these institutions amass huge profits and go on expanding such institutions. 

Most engineering colleges in the country are run by private entities, yet serious questions persist about the quality of teaching and academic rigour. The head of Kolkata Metropolitan Development Authority, and a veteran civil engineer, who is guest faculty at several institutions once recounted an encounter that is illustrative of this malaise. When he asked a young relative why she had not pursued engineering, she replied that classes were not held on a regular basis. To the question about how the extensive syllabus was completed and exams were conducted, she explained that question papers were provided in advance and students were permitted to consult library books while writing their answers. In some cases, students were even allowed to take the question papers home and submit their written responses the following day. Notably, the institution in question forms part of a well-known group of private engineering colleges and a deemed university in West Bengal. 

This is a reflection on the standards of teaching of most engineering colleges. The pay structure of most of these institutes is much below their government counterparts. As such, it has been found that retired professors and those who would retire within six months or so leave government institutions to join deemed universities. As in most other sectors, there is absolutely no monitoring and control as these institutions are owned by powerful people who are hand-in-glove with the ruling party and are only interested in making money. 

This inevitably raises the larger question of how and whybusiness houses with little or no academic background are permitted to establish educational institutions. Equally important is why educationists, doctors, engineers and other domain experts are neither adequately encouraged nor financially supported to set up universities, medical colleges, engineering institutions and similar centres of learning. The discourse could instead shift towards meaningful public–private collaboration, particularly in technical and medical education. Engineering colleges, for instance, could be established with institutional support from public sector undertakings such as Coal India, MECON and NTPC, while medical colleges could be developed in partnership with premier public institutions like AIIMS and NIMHANS. Such models would better align educational expansion with academic expertise, public accountability and societal need.   

At a time when there is an urgent need to upgrade educational standards and ensure transparency and fairness in admissions, the implementation of the Supreme Court’s directions is both necessary and timely—though such intervention ought to have come much earlier. The real test, however, will lie in their execution. It remains to be seen whether State governments will resist institutional and political pressures and place before the Court an honest and comprehensive account of the actual state of affairs, or whether the process will be diluted through manipulation and selective disclosure.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)