Round The States

New Delhi, 11 May 2024

‘Religious Minorities’ Study

POLITICAL ARENA FLARES UP

By Insaf 

The debate on religion and politics has further ignited the electoral arena. A study ‘Share of religious minorities: A cross-country analysis’, by Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister has triggered a political slugfest between the BJP and INDIA bloc partners. The study says the share of majority Hindu population declined by 7.81% to 78.06% between 1950 and 2015, while that of the Muslim community surged 43.15% 14.09%, in the corresponding period. Giving statistics of other minority communities as well the study says ‘India's performance suggests there’s a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society…’ However, the BJP has grabbed the opportunity provided by the Council and has voiced serious concern over rise in Muslim population. Said its spokesperson, “If by this pace the population is increasing and Congress is hell bent upon giving reservation to the Muslims on the basis of population, they will cut the share of the SCs, STs and the OBCs if voted to power.” Another BJP leader has gone a step further saying “Hindu population is decreasing; Muslim population is increasing... It shows that in the days to come they want to make India an Islamic State.” 

On the other hand, the Opposition has questioned the sheer timing of the report accusing the saffron party of sowing communal discord during ongoing Lok Sabha elections. Why now, asks a leader of Left parties, adding “The prime minister is already trying to polarise people in the name of Muslims, talking about handing over keys of Ram Mandir to Muslims…” Another leader’s response is “It’s a conspiracy to create hatred and polarise the voters.” Indeed, it is disconcerting, and the Election Commission would do well to take note. More importantly, the media must exercise constraint in its reportage as Population Foundation of India has expressed concern about some recent reports ‘misreporting’ the findings from the study to spread alarm. It advises: “Population growth rates are not linked to religion and the total fertility rate among all religious groups is declining, with the highest decrease observed among Muslims…The study’s focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65-year period should not be used to incite fear or discrimination against any community.” Both media and political leadership must heed. A stitch in time saves nine.  

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‘Conspiracy’ In J&K

J&K administration does a swift U-turn! On Thursday last, it allowed NC to hold public rallies on May 12 in Sopore police district, Baramulla constituency being contested by its Vice President Omar Abdullah. This, only after he wrote to ECI urging it to uphold ‘electoral process integrity’ by directing SP Sopore to allow campaigning as per schedule and ‘rectify the injustice.’ Earlier, without citing any reason, the SP had asked Baramulla administration to direct parties, already given permission, to ‘reschedule programmes’ from May 9-18. With polling on May 20, NC termed the order as ‘discriminatory’, ‘direct assault on democracy and principles of fair competition’ and aimed at ‘sabotaging party’s campaign’ in comparison to other parties (without naming People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone, perceived to enjoy BJP backing). Likewise, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti had written to EC accusing it of participating in a ‘conspiracy’ to derail her campaign in Anantnag-Rajouri seat after it had deferred poll to May 25, where Apni Party’s Zaffar Iqbal Manhas, believed too to have BJP backing, is pitted against her. Will J&K administration uphold values of democracy, is the big question.

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 False Narrative In WB?

West Bengal’s Sandeshkhali case not only gets curiouser but turns spurious. Ruling TMC has urged ECI to start criminal proceedings against BJP leaders concerned for ‘orchestrating conspiracy including paying bribes’ to Sandeshkhali women to ‘falsely raise complaints’ and attempts ‘to influence investigating agencies and constitutional authorities.’ This, after it shared a ‘sting operation’ video on social media showing a local BJP leader claiming rape charges were ‘staged’ at behest of BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, who has rubbished the claim. TMC asserted victims may have had a few complaints over land grab, but never of sexual offence and shared fresh videos of women alleging they were ‘manipulated’ by BJP into filing ‘false rape cases.’ TMC-BJP fight has spilled over to Raj Bhavan. A contractual woman employee has levelled molestation charge with Kolkata police station against Governor Ananda Bose, who has said its ‘absurd drama’, ‘dirty’ politics of Mamata Banerjee and launched programme ‘Sach ke Samne’ showing related CCTV footage to 100 people, except ‘Mamata and her police’.

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BSP’s Surprise Move

Amid elections, BSP makes intriguing headlines. On Tuesday last, party supremo Mayawati divested nephew Akash Anand of his post as national co-ordinator and her ‘successor’, barely five months after she had anointed him! In a post on X, she said the decision was taken in ‘interest of party and movement and till the time Anand gains full maturity’. Till then her brother and Akash’s father Anand Kumar is to continue to fulfil his responsibilities as before. Three days later, Anand took to X saying ‘Totally respect your order. I will keep fighting till my last breath for Bhim Mission and my society.’ The surprise decision has led to a guessing game. Is it because Akash was booked in a suo motu case of violating MCC with 4 others for allegedly using ‘objectionable language’ at a rally in Sitapur, saying ‘This government is a bulldozer government and a government of traitors. The party that leaves its youth hungry and enslaves its elderly is a terrorist government. Taliban runs such a government in Afghanistan.’ Or is Mayawati enduring to play safe in Yogi land and be seen as coming to BJP’s rescue?

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Haryana Govt In Crisis?

The future of BJP government in Haryana hangs in balance. Jannayak Janta Party leader Dushyant Chautala has written to Haryana Governor seeking an immediate floor test saying Nayab Singh Saini’s government no longer commands a majority. This is prompted by 3 Independent MLAs withdrawing their support (and backing the Congress) on Tuesday last, reducing it to a minority in the 90-member Assembly. The Congress has demanded that Saini resign immediately, President’s Rule be imposed, and fresh elections be held. However, Saini insists his government is not in trouble and had ‘won a confidence vote in March and if it comes to seeking the trust vote, I will do it again when the time comes.’ The Assembly has an effective strength of 88, BJP has 40 MLAs, Congress 30 and JJP 10, INLD and HLP one each and five Independents. Scales have turned with the 3 independents backing Congress and JJP sending signals it could support the grand old party. With halfway mark being 45, and NDA currently having 43 MLAs, will the government be able to ride with the tide? ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 10 May 2024

India’s Global Rise

AND REGIONAL DECLINE

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The Government of Maldives, the archipelago country, has urged India to encourage tourists to visit their country. Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu has urged Indian Prime Minister Modi that his country’s economy depends on tourism and therefore India should continue be a part of Maldivian tourism sector. Likewise, Maldivian Tourism Minister Ibrahim Faisal in an interview on 6 May has highlighted the historical relations between the two countries and has invited the Indian nationals to visit his country to vitalise its faltering economy. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Mossa Zameer was to arrive in New Delhi on 9 May on an official visit. While discussing issues of mutual interest, he would be raising the risk of Indian tourists dwindling in Maldives. 

Maldivian concern about depletion of Indian tourists is being expressed against the backdrop of increased geo-political tensions between the two countries. It started with election of ‘pro-China’ President Muizzu who asked for Indian army personnel to be relocated away from Maldives. The dilution of India-Maldives bilateral relations is indicative of India’s decline as a regional power, while India is growing globally. This simultaneous as well as contrarian development in India’s foreign policy presents a paradox. 

India’s global rise is explained by its growth in absolute power, strategic positioning, economic growth in GDP terms, military strength and its largest demography, particularly the youth population. India’s membership of strategic groupings like Quad, G-20, even BRICS and SCO plus the invitation to G-7 marks its global growth. At the same time, India seems to be struggling to retain its influence in the neighbourhood in the face of an aggressive and expansive China. Because of the obvious asymmetry in strength between two countries India is experiencing a decline of relative power, in regard to China. 

Paradoxically, the factors that cause the decline of India’s regional influence are the ones that contribute to its growth as global power. I am referring to the withdrawal of America and Western countries from South Asia and shifting their focus to India-Pacific region. This has left the space open to Chinese penetration into the region. In the face of competition from China, as said before, due to lesser economic strength, New Delhi is unable to maintain its hegemony in the neighbourhood. One Nepalese ambassador to India admitted frankly in a seminar that China has quite a bit of surplus money which countries in South Asia are seeking to tap into. 

Withdrawal of the West from South Asia also has made India the focus of attention as a counterweight to China. Although New Delhi is cautiously moving between America and its allies and China-Russia axis, the West would like India to be a strategic ally. Unsure of America’s unwavering commitment to India vis-à-vis China, New Delhi has not cast the die. But surely, the West courting India is propelling the latter’s global rise. The question is, if India sticks to its strategic autonomy, how will it balance the mismatch between its regional and global influences? 

Let us probe India’s fraying relations with the tiny archipelago, Maldives. Quite a few observers suggest that the rupture in the relations is not because of Muizzu’s tilt towards China, it is largely how New Delhi is reacting to this. Before Muizzu, other leaders followed an India First Policy but Muizzu changed it to Maldives First. As said before, countries in South Asia would like to exploit to their advantage the growing rivalry in the region between India and China. When President Muizzu asked India to withdraw her forces, Govt of India reacted strongly. Muizzu also decided not to renew the agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of its waters. Recall that this agreement signed in 2019 allowed India to conduct a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian territorial waters, study and chart reefs, lagoons, coastlines, Ocean current and tide levels. 

However, the tweet by Prime Minister Modi extolling the tourist potential of Lakshadweep vis-à-vis Maldives dramatically changed the people-to-people perceptions. This hit Maldives below the belt. What was worse were the unworthy personal comments made by two of Muizzu’s ministers on Prime Minister Modi. The social media reacted to it very strongly to the point of boycotting Maldives. It was perhaps an overreaction as those ministers were promptly removed from the Cabinet. Not only that, Muizzu has been losing to his opponents after his apparent anti-India posturing. In fact, there have been protests by the Opposition in Maldives that warm relations with India should be restored forthwith. 

Maldives is the smallest country in South Asia and India is the largest. The relations between two countries signify the conduct of Maldives on how to deal with the biggest country in the neighbourhood. But the onus lies more on India as New Delhi should be wary of giving an inferiority complex to Maldives. Despite the difference in size, both countries need each other in their mutual interest. 

Maldives works as a ‘toll gate’ for nearly half of India’s external trade and 80 per cent of its energy imports. Maldives is situated along the crucial maritime trade routes between the Gulf of Aiden and the Strait of Malacca. Maldives is also strategically located in the Indian Ocean and is therefore, of great interest to India. Maldives can counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean on behalf of India. 

Likewise, Maldives needs India for various critical reasons. India is the main supplier of essential commodities, provides a base for education of number of Maldivians. India is the second largest trade partner of Maldives. For Maldives, India has been the main responder; be it the coup attempt in 1988 which made the Indian forces intervene under the code ‘Operation Cactus’, or the Tsunami disaster in 2004. India was the first country to send relief assistance. In 2014, Male had drinking water crisis as a major desalination plant broke down, India overnight air lifted drinking water to the Islands. During the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent essential medical supplies. 

In comparison to China, India has greater soft power which New Delhi must deploy. This should be done not as a bully or a big brother in the region but as an unoffending friendly country despite huge difference in size and strength. One way New Delhi could use its soft power is to encourage informal contacts between political and civil society actors in India and other South Asian countries. Second, India could encourage non-state actors to engage in conflict management mechanisms in the region as New Delhi is reluctant to get involved at an official level – Myanmar is a case in point. 

The track-II diplomacy consisting of cultural exchange, education collaboration and business promotion is the best way forward. The myth that foreign policy objectives can be met by the Ministry of External Affairs alone has to be busted. In so doing, India can resolve the contradiction between her global rise and local decline.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 10 May 2024

India’s Global Rise

AND REGIONAL DECLINE

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The Government of Maldives, the archipelago country, has urged India to encourage tourists to visit their country. Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu has urged Indian Prime Minister Modi that his country’s economy depends on tourism and therefore India should continue be a part of Maldivian tourism sector. Likewise, Maldivian Tourism Minister Ibrahim Faisal in an interview on 6 May has highlighted the historical relations between the two countries and has invited the Indian nationals to visit his country to vitalise its faltering economy. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Mossa Zameer was to arrive in New Delhi on 9 May on an official visit. While discussing issues of mutual interest, he would be raising the risk of Indian tourists dwindling in Maldives. 

Maldivian concern about depletion of Indian tourists is being expressed against the backdrop of increased geo-political tensions between the two countries. It started with election of ‘pro-China’ President Muizzu who asked for Indian army personnel to be relocated away from Maldives. The dilution of India-Maldives bilateral relations is indicative of India’s decline as a regional power, while India is growing globally. This simultaneous as well as contrarian development in India’s foreign policy presents a paradox. 

India’s global rise is explained by its growth in absolute power, strategic positioning, economic growth in GDP terms, military strength and its largest demography, particularly the youth population. India’s membership of strategic groupings like Quad, G-20, even BRICS and SCO plus the invitation to G-7 marks its global growth. At the same time, India seems to be struggling to retain its influence in the neighbourhood in the face of an aggressive and expansive China. Because of the obvious asymmetry in strength between two countries India is experiencing a decline of relative power, in regard to China. 

Paradoxically, the factors that cause the decline of India’s regional influence are the ones that contribute to its growth as global power. I am referring to the withdrawal of America and Western countries from South Asia and shifting their focus to India-Pacific region. This has left the space open to Chinese penetration into the region. In the face of competition from China, as said before, due to lesser economic strength, New Delhi is unable to maintain its hegemony in the neighbourhood. One Nepalese ambassador to India admitted frankly in a seminar that China has quite a bit of surplus money which countries in South Asia are seeking to tap into. 

Withdrawal of the West from South Asia also has made India the focus of attention as a counterweight to China. Although New Delhi is cautiously moving between America and its allies and China-Russia axis, the West would like India to be a strategic ally. Unsure of America’s unwavering commitment to India vis-à-vis China, New Delhi has not cast the die. But surely, the West courting India is propelling the latter’s global rise. The question is, if India sticks to its strategic autonomy, how will it balance the mismatch between its regional and global influences? 

Let us probe India’s fraying relations with the tiny archipelago, Maldives. Quite a few observers suggest that the rupture in the relations is not because of Muizzu’s tilt towards China, it is largely how New Delhi is reacting to this. Before Muizzu, other leaders followed an India First Policy but Muizzu changed it to Maldives First. As said before, countries in South Asia would like to exploit to their advantage the growing rivalry in the region between India and China. When President Muizzu asked India to withdraw her forces, Govt of India reacted strongly. Muizzu also decided not to renew the agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of its waters. Recall that this agreement signed in 2019 allowed India to conduct a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian territorial waters, study and chart reefs, lagoons, coastlines, Ocean current and tide levels. 

However, the tweet by Prime Minister Modi extolling the tourist potential of Lakshadweep vis-à-vis Maldives dramatically changed the people-to-people perceptions. This hit Maldives below the belt. What was worse were the unworthy personal comments made by two of Muizzu’s ministers on Prime Minister Modi. The social media reacted to it very strongly to the point of boycotting Maldives. It was perhaps an overreaction as those ministers were promptly removed from the Cabinet. Not only that, Muizzu has been losing to his opponents after his apparent anti-India posturing. In fact, there have been protests by the Opposition in Maldives that warm relations with India should be restored forthwith. 

Maldives is the smallest country in South Asia and India is the largest. The relations between two countries signify the conduct of Maldives on how to deal with the biggest country in the neighbourhood. But the onus lies more on India as New Delhi should be wary of giving an inferiority complex to Maldives. Despite the difference in size, both countries need each other in their mutual interest. 

Maldives works as a ‘toll gate’ for nearly half of India’s external trade and 80 per cent of its energy imports. Maldives is situated along the crucial maritime trade routes between the Gulf of Aiden and the Strait of Malacca. Maldives is also strategically located in the Indian Ocean and is therefore, of great interest to India. Maldives can counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean on behalf of India. 

Likewise, Maldives needs India for various critical reasons. India is the main supplier of essential commodities, provides a base for education of number of Maldivians. India is the second largest trade partner of Maldives. For Maldives, India has been the main responder; be it the coup attempt in 1988 which made the Indian forces intervene under the code ‘Operation Cactus’, or the Tsunami disaster in 2004. India was the first country to send relief assistance. In 2014, Male had drinking water crisis as a major desalination plant broke down, India overnight air lifted drinking water to the Islands. During the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent essential medical supplies. 

In comparison to China, India has greater soft power which New Delhi must deploy. This should be done not as a bully or a big brother in the region but as an unoffending friendly country despite huge difference in size and strength. One way New Delhi could use its soft power is to encourage informal contacts between political and civil society actors in India and other South Asian countries. Second, India could encourage non-state actors to engage in conflict management mechanisms in the region as New Delhi is reluctant to get involved at an official level – Myanmar is a case in point. 

The track-II diplomacy consisting of cultural exchange, education collaboration and business promotion is the best way forward. The myth that foreign policy objectives can be met by the Ministry of External Affairs alone has to be busted. In so doing, India can resolve the contradiction between her global rise and local decline.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 10 May 2024

India’s Global Rise

AND REGIONAL DECLINE

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

The Government of Maldives, the archipelago country, has urged India to encourage tourists to visit their country. Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu has urged Indian Prime Minister Modi that his country’s economy depends on tourism and therefore India should continue be a part of Maldivian tourism sector. Likewise, Maldivian Tourism Minister Ibrahim Faisal in an interview on 6 May has highlighted the historical relations between the two countries and has invited the Indian nationals to visit his country to vitalise its faltering economy. The Foreign Affairs Minister, Mossa Zameer was to arrive in New Delhi on 9 May on an official visit. While discussing issues of mutual interest, he would be raising the risk of Indian tourists dwindling in Maldives. 

Maldivian concern about depletion of Indian tourists is being expressed against the backdrop of increased geo-political tensions between the two countries. It started with election of ‘pro-China’ President Muizzu who asked for Indian army personnel to be relocated away from Maldives. The dilution of India-Maldives bilateral relations is indicative of India’s decline as a regional power, while India is growing globally. This simultaneous as well as contrarian development in India’s foreign policy presents a paradox. 

India’s global rise is explained by its growth in absolute power, strategic positioning, economic growth in GDP terms, military strength and its largest demography, particularly the youth population. India’s membership of strategic groupings like Quad, G-20, even BRICS and SCO plus the invitation to G-7 marks its global growth. At the same time, India seems to be struggling to retain its influence in the neighbourhood in the face of an aggressive and expansive China. Because of the obvious asymmetry in strength between two countries India is experiencing a decline of relative power, in regard to China. 

Paradoxically, the factors that cause the decline of India’s regional influence are the ones that contribute to its growth as global power. I am referring to the withdrawal of America and Western countries from South Asia and shifting their focus to India-Pacific region. This has left the space open to Chinese penetration into the region. In the face of competition from China, as said before, due to lesser economic strength, New Delhi is unable to maintain its hegemony in the neighbourhood. One Nepalese ambassador to India admitted frankly in a seminar that China has quite a bit of surplus money which countries in South Asia are seeking to tap into. 

Withdrawal of the West from South Asia also has made India the focus of attention as a counterweight to China. Although New Delhi is cautiously moving between America and its allies and China-Russia axis, the West would like India to be a strategic ally. Unsure of America’s unwavering commitment to India vis-à-vis China, New Delhi has not cast the die. But surely, the West courting India is propelling the latter’s global rise. The question is, if India sticks to its strategic autonomy, how will it balance the mismatch between its regional and global influences? 

Let us probe India’s fraying relations with the tiny archipelago, Maldives. Quite a few observers suggest that the rupture in the relations is not because of Muizzu’s tilt towards China, it is largely how New Delhi is reacting to this. Before Muizzu, other leaders followed an India First Policy but Muizzu changed it to Maldives First. As said before, countries in South Asia would like to exploit to their advantage the growing rivalry in the region between India and China. When President Muizzu asked India to withdraw her forces, Govt of India reacted strongly. Muizzu also decided not to renew the agreement with India on a hydrographic survey of its waters. Recall that this agreement signed in 2019 allowed India to conduct a hydrographic survey of the Maldivian territorial waters, study and chart reefs, lagoons, coastlines, Ocean current and tide levels. 

However, the tweet by Prime Minister Modi extolling the tourist potential of Lakshadweep vis-à-vis Maldives dramatically changed the people-to-people perceptions. This hit Maldives below the belt. What was worse were the unworthy personal comments made by two of Muizzu’s ministers on Prime Minister Modi. The social media reacted to it very strongly to the point of boycotting Maldives. It was perhaps an overreaction as those ministers were promptly removed from the Cabinet. Not only that, Muizzu has been losing to his opponents after his apparent anti-India posturing. In fact, there have been protests by the Opposition in Maldives that warm relations with India should be restored forthwith. 

Maldives is the smallest country in South Asia and India is the largest. The relations between two countries signify the conduct of Maldives on how to deal with the biggest country in the neighbourhood. But the onus lies more on India as New Delhi should be wary of giving an inferiority complex to Maldives. Despite the difference in size, both countries need each other in their mutual interest. 

Maldives works as a ‘toll gate’ for nearly half of India’s external trade and 80 per cent of its energy imports. Maldives is situated along the crucial maritime trade routes between the Gulf of Aiden and the Strait of Malacca. Maldives is also strategically located in the Indian Ocean and is therefore, of great interest to India. Maldives can counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean on behalf of India. 

Likewise, Maldives needs India for various critical reasons. India is the main supplier of essential commodities, provides a base for education of number of Maldivians. India is the second largest trade partner of Maldives. For Maldives, India has been the main responder; be it the coup attempt in 1988 which made the Indian forces intervene under the code ‘Operation Cactus’, or the Tsunami disaster in 2004. India was the first country to send relief assistance. In 2014, Male had drinking water crisis as a major desalination plant broke down, India overnight air lifted drinking water to the Islands. During the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent essential medical supplies. 

In comparison to China, India has greater soft power which New Delhi must deploy. This should be done not as a bully or a big brother in the region but as an unoffending friendly country despite huge difference in size and strength. One way New Delhi could use its soft power is to encourage informal contacts between political and civil society actors in India and other South Asian countries. Second, India could encourage non-state actors to engage in conflict management mechanisms in the region as New Delhi is reluctant to get involved at an official level – Myanmar is a case in point. 

The track-II diplomacy consisting of cultural exchange, education collaboration and business promotion is the best way forward. The myth that foreign policy objectives can be met by the Ministry of External Affairs alone has to be busted. In so doing, India can resolve the contradiction between her global rise and local decline.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)