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India Reclaims PoK: AN ELECTION GIMMICK?, By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri, 17 May 2024 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 17 May 2024

India Reclaims PoK

AN ELECTION GIMMICK?

By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri

(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism) 

In response to former J&K Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah’s reference to Pakistan having atom bombs, Union Home Minister Amit Shah retorted that India is not afraid of Pakistan’s bomb and that every inch of PoK belongs to India. He further asserted that India will reclaim PoK one day or the other. This is indeed a tall claim but a right one to make. However, is it only an election gimmick or a serious intention which becomes a part of BJP’s manifesto? Notably, it has not been included in the Manifesto. Why not? This is the question this article seeks to address. 

Let me throw a caveat. Election promises either written into a manifesto or announced in public meetings amount to populism, to whip up emotions of the electors and create jingoism when it comes to foreign policy issues, in particular, Pakistan. Manifesto is a cardinal document of a party which is presented at the time of elections. Remember, the famous Communist manifesto which provided the basis for progressive politics in the world: Communism and its variants. Since then, however, manifestoes have not been adhered to in letter or sprit. 

In developed democracies, there is some ethical regard to manifestoes and the voters can hold the parties to account. In many democracies, manifestoes are not to inform people but to give political identity to the groups that they issue them by focusing their antipathies. That is why perhaps Prime Minister Modi, in order to be more persuasive, called the BJP manifesto ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’. 

Mid-way in the current elections, the Prime Minister seems to have downplayed the emphasis on the guarantee which is a stronger concept than the manifesto. Cynics of Indian democracy should have been happy that elections are fought on guarantees. Interestingly, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, as he came out of jail, announced ten guarantees as opposed to Modi’s. 

He has promised to reclaim the territories occupied by China. This is a taller order than reclaiming PoK. It would sound good to nationalist elements. But is it feasible? At any rate, the point is Kejriwal, running one-and-half government is promising to retrieve lands from China. He does say that these guarantees will apply if his Alliance comes to power. He admitted that he had not consulted his INDIA colleagues while making this promise. 

What do these guarantees mean? In marketing language, guarantee would mean that you can return a product within a specified period if fails to function. Will the politicians return the mandate and resign if they fail to fulfil the promise they are making. This is better than what is called Right to Recall; citizens could recall their representatives if they are found incompetent or immoral by their voters. 

Coming back to PoK, it is in order that we briefly reflect on the history of India’s partition and integration of princely states into the Indian Union. Kashmir, a Muslim-majority region under the rule of a Hindu king decided to accede to Indian Union. Some Muslim tribals backed by Pakistani army invaded Kashmir to separate it from Indian Union on the basis of the majority argument. As per the rule of accession, Kashmir belonged to India. Indian army was beating back the invaders but for some controversial reasons, Prime Minister Nehru asked it to stop. He took it to the United Nations. Rest is history. 

The line where the advancing Indian army was asked to stop became the LAC between India and Pakistan. The latter has been claiming Kashmir on the Indian side whereas the entire Kashmir belongs to India. Pakistan has no case. Some of us have been arguing that India, instead of being defensive on Indian part of the Kashmir, should claim PoK without which the integration of Kashmir into India is incomplete. 

Another issue to note is the special status given to Kashmir by Union of India. That status was exploited by separatist forces in Kashmir backed by Pakistan. And worse, Pakistan continues to sponsor terrorism in and through Kashmir to destablise India. Thanks to the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, the state of Jammu & Kashmir was split into two Union territories, J&K and Ladakh. The idea was to contain terrorism in the valley and restore normalcy for the improvement of livelihoods, law and order in the region. 

Pakistan is deviously using PoK to draw China into the conflict between India and Pakistan. This has dramatically transformed the geo-political situation in the region and threatens the security of the country. India did not join the Belt & Road Initiative launched by China as it runs through PoK. Pakistan leasing off parts of PoK to China is alarming. Now a huge rebellion in PoK is witnessed against Pakistan. Apparently, people of PoK protesting against Pakistan against inflation and scarcity have hoisted the Indian flag. Such a development should be encouraging to India. 

BJP leadership is speaking in a forked tongue. On the one hand, it is asserting that every inch of PoK belongs to India. But apparently Govt of India is doing precious little in recovering PoK. The other rendition of BJP is that the people of PoK will opt to join India as they are fed-up with Pakistan’s inefficiency and corruption in PoK. This seems to be a wishful thinking. Pakistan will not let PoK secede without a fight or unbearable international pressure. The Prime Minister of Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif has sanctioned $82.6 million to PoK to quench the demand. It is difficult to predict if this would settle the issue.             

Unarguably, peoples’ suffering from the oppressive regime cannot easily break away. Balochs in Pakistan should have done it long ago. So would have Catalans in Spain or Rohingyas in Myanmar. The international community has to support wherever legitimate the liberation of such people. In Kashmir, it is a matter of contention between India and Pakistan. Thus far, Pakistan has been relentlessly agitating in international fora for getting the Indian part of Kashmir. India, although has not made a formal claim of PoK, the BJP leadership has been raising it off and on. This is perfect strategy on Kashmir; the entire Kashmir has to be integrated with India. 

To the surprise of election strategists, BJP did not include PoK in its manifesto and make it a frontline election issue. This should have polarised the electorate if INDIA partners did not echo the reclaiming of PoK. That brings us to our initial hypothesis that PoK could be an afterthought and is pressed mid-way as election propaganda. If that be so, it is disappointing. Also, BJP would have missed the bus on PoK in election time. 

Be that as it may. Elections will be over in a couple of weeks. The issue of PoK would writ large on India’s foreign policy vis-a vis China as well as Pakistan. So, the current leadership, namely the incumbent government, be better advised to make PoK their political conviction and go for it. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

POLL GUESSES FAVOUR RAJIV, By Inder Jit, 16 May 2024 Print E-mail

REWIND

New Delhi, 16 May 2024

POLL GUESSES FAVOUR RAJIV

By Inder Jit

(Released on 4 December 1984) 

Poll talk dominates all else. The guessing game is on again. Newsmen commentators and anyone who appears to have some clue about the mood of the voters and the possible outcome of the forthcoming general election to the Lok Sabha are in great demand. So also are the astrologers who are better placed than most others. They have at least the Bhrigu Samhita and the stars to go by. Not only those in seats of authority and their cohorts but hundreds of others all over the country are busy getting them to peer into the future. Those anxious to retain power or aspiring to membership of Parliament want help to determine their prospects and tactics. Celestial guidance is also being sought by scores of captains of industry and others to decide on the political horses they should specifically back -- and the best way they should hedge their bets. Seasoned politicians and observers alone prefer not to commit themselves and speak in parables. Candidly, talk in terms of numbers is wild at any time. It is even more so today -- three weeks before the poll. Anything can happen between now and then. 

Nevertheless, certain broad trends are discernible. Dame Fortune continues to smile benignly on Mr Rajiv Gandhi. He has not only got the Prime Ministership of India on a gold platter. He also looks like romping back to power in the poll. No, this assessment is not based on the feelings of the men around young Rajiv. It is based on informal soundings of some top Opposition leaders. One Janata leader, known for his political horse sense, gave the Congress-I between 250 and 275 seats out of 515 being contested. Another said: “Our friend is being cautious. I would give Rajiv anywhere from 275 to 300 seats.” A top BJP leader agreed later the same day. He told me: “Rajiv will easily get a majority even 300 seats.” A top Lok Dal leader and another top BJP leader differed in their assessments. Both separately said: “No one will get a clear majority. Rajiv will get only 100 seats.” Who would win the remaining 415 seats? I asked. There was some humming and hawing, but no answer. Eventually, both said: “Arre bhai, one can only make wild guesses”. 

Several factors seem to favour Mr Rajiv Gandhi and his Congress-I, not the least of which is the tragic failure of the Opposition to unite and offer the country a credible alternative. Consequently, the Congress-I alone today offers the people a one-party government. No other party has fielded enough candidates to provide a government by itself. In fact, the Opposition does not even offer a coalition government, let alone a stable regime. This is of basic importance against the backdrop of past experience. In the post-1967 period, people voted against the Congress and for SVD coalitions in U.P. and elsewhere. But the experiment flopped. In 1977, people voted for the Janata, assured that they were backing one party and not an SVD. Yet the Janata leaders not only let themselves down but also the country. Self and personal ambitions were once again put before the country and we all saw the dream of a healthy two-party democracy come to a sudden tragic end. Little solid has been done by these leaders over the past five years to repair the damage. 

No less important are the positive factors which seem to have encouraged the voters to view Mr. Rajiv Gandhi as a person who can give the country a stable Government. First and foremost, the people at large seem impressed by the poise, dignity and fortitude with which Mr. Gandhi conducted himself in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. True, not everyone was able to the day-long telecasts during the period. But the message appears to have spread widely. Remember, the 1977 poll threw up something altogether new in the field of communication. The media alone is not the message. The message is the message – its own carrier. The word about the Janata spread like wildfire to all nooks and corners of our country in short time even when it had little access to AIR and Doordarshan. Mr. Rajiv Gandhi, it is conceded, is an unknown quantity as Prime Minister. But the important thing from the Congress-I viewpoint is that he appears to have inspired hope and confidence among the common people. 

Thinking and educated people have their own yardstick. They prefer not to be carried away merely by what they saw on Doordarshan and thereby establish their “superiority and sophistication” over the average voter -- at least in their own eyes. However, they too, are impressed, though for different reasons. They are impressed by the fact that Mr. Gandhi has the background of a good and steady pilot. This ensures that he understands the importance of three things: the machine, the system and discipline without which he could not have taken off, sustained himself in the air or safely landed back. In fact, Mr. Gandhi recently said the same to a top industrialist when the latter complained that trucks and cars burnt during the recent riots in Delhi were still lying around. Reportedly said Mr Gandhi: “Unfortunately, nothing gets done except when the Prime Minister himself orders... As an airlines pilot, I know I can do well only if I have a good co-pilot and, indeed, a good team in which the hostess and all others do their respective jobs.” 

Not only that. Mr Gandhi is expected to get powerful support both from the youth and women. Large sections among the youth are happy to see a younger person at the helm – a person who they feel is likely to reflect better the hopes and aspirations of their generation. Most women find him “very handsome and charming”, to quote an expression used by scores of women over the past few weeks. (Women libbers will, no doubt, protest. But we cannot ignore basic facts of life and human nature.) Actually, Mr Gandhi’s popularity with the fair voters brings to my mind an interesting experience of the 1952 British general election. In the course of my travel, I also visited Lamington Spa, the constituency of Sir Anthony Eden, Britain's handsome Foreign Secretary. But I was told that Sir Anthony was never required to campaign. He merely plastered the town with his portraits and repeatedly won hands down. The reason? All the women voters invariably turned up to poll and, after taking a good look at his winsome portrait, voted for him enthusiastically saying: “Oh, Anthony, ain't he ‘andsome!” 

Many doubts were raised in regard to young Rajiv’s capacity to play politics or, more specifically, poll politics in the wake of Mrs Gandhi’s assassination. But Mr Gandhi, aided by Mr Arun Nehru, Mr Arun Singh, Mr M.L. Fotedar and a few other select friends, has taken even his supporters and sympathisers pleasantly by surprise. First, he did not seek any postponement of the poll. Instead, he expressed himself in favour of a poll at the earliest. (Initially, Mrs Gandhi also favoured a poll in the last week of December. But she then opted for the first week of January.) Second, he has not made sweeping changes in the Congress list and limited these to the barest minimum for the present. Third, he has largely tied down two top Opposition leaders, Mr. Hemwati Bahuguna, Atal Behari Vajpayee, to their constituencies by putting up the matinee idol Amitabh Bachchan and Mr. Madhav Rao Scindia respectively against them in a surprise move. Mr. Bahuguna and Mr. Vajpayee were otherwise expected to spend most of their time campaigning for others both in the Hindi heartland and elsewhere in the country. 

What about the opposition and its leaders? Barring unforeseen circumstances and a miracle, they seem to have missed the bus once again. The average voter appears psychologically ready for a change without doubt, he is disenchanted and disillusioned with the ruling party. It has largely failed to keep most of its poll promises. What is worse, the nation’s plate, already over full, has now Punjab and other problems added on top. (According to Mr. Charan Singh, more than 60 per cent of India’s population now lives below the poverty line as against 35 per cent earlier.) Nevertheless, voters feel there is no one they can really turn to in the Opposition in this hour of crisis. The Janata leader, Mr Chandra Shekhar, the BJP leader, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the Congress (S) leader, Mr. Sharad Pawar, aroused hopes at one stage. But few talk of them as potential Prime Ministers – at least for the present. Mr. Charan Singh’s name comes up repeatedly. But then he appears to have few takers outside his strongholds in U.P. and Haryana. 

Indira Gandhi’s assassination created overnight an altogether new situation. It opened up political prospects and possibilities. Power seemed within the Opposition’s grasp in a country which still largely respects age and believe that youth is no substitute for experience. Yet, all this has been missed by the Opposition. All, they had to do was to dismount from their high horses, put country before self and unite. Instead, each was once again lured by the prospects of Prime Ministership -- the pie in the sky. Tragically, they could not even agree on adjustment of seats in the crucial Hindi heartland -- the States of U.P. and Bihar which have all along had a decisive voice in the choice of the Government and Prime Minister at the Centre. Different formulae were put forward for division of seats. But each got shot down eventually. As a top Opposition leader explained: “Since no party is expected to win a majority, everyone is desperately trying to win as many seats as possible in the hope of being strong enough to play a decisive role in the new picture that emerges after the election.” 

What the poll will eventually yield is anybody’s conjecture. It is a pity, however, that Mr Charan Singh, Mr Vajpayee and Mr Chandra Shekhar were unable to bring off in the north what Mr N.T. Rama Rao and Mr R.K. Hegde have been able to achieve in the south by way of seat adjustments. (Mr Hegde expects to bag at least 14 to 16 seats out of a total of 28 seats in Karnataka. In 1980, the Congress-I won 27 seats and Janata only one seat.) Consequently, we have lost another opportunity of taking India towards a healthier and more purposeful two-party or three-party system. Most constituencies look like witnessing multi-corner contests in which the will of the people seldom gets reflected truly. In 1980, Indira Gandhi and her Congress-I polled only 42.5 per cent of the total votes cast. But it won 352 seats in a House of 527 members. The Janata Party polled 18.93 per cent votes but won only 31 seats. Whether Mr Gandhi can do one better than his mother remains to be seen. One thing alone appears clear for the present. If poll guesses are any indication, young Rajiv appears set for a win. --- INFA

(Copyright, Indi News & Feature Alliance)

Future Trends: IS MODI WAVE WANING?, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 15 May 2024 Print E-mail

Open Forum

New Delhi, 15 May 2024

Future Trends

IS MODI WAVE WANING?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

With the Lok Sabha elections moving forward, analysts and political pundits are now opining that the Modi wave is not quite manifest in most states. And any pronounced polarisation and consolidation of the electorate is not quite discernible. Questions are being asked whether the BJP-led NDA’s prospects of comfortably crossing the majority mark would become a reality keeping in view its failure to move ahead with all sections, specially the marginalised and backward sections who continue to languish being deprived of basic facilities. 

The ruling party over the past six weeks or so has found it struggling to fuse the leadership advantage to a singular theme like ‘acche din’ in 2014 and the Balakot episode in 2019. It has switched back on the Ram Temple theme, rising Bharat and Modi’s guarantees. But reports indicate that these are not being taken seriously by at least a major section of the electorate. 

The Congress manifesto and promises made by Rahul Gandhi are more appealing and his simplicity is capturing voters. NDA’s campaign has encountered choppier waters among Dalits and lower castes in the Hindi belt. Even if the BJP with its low base in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh manages a few seats, if at all, this may not compensate for the losses in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and even Uttar Pradesh. What comes in favour for the ruling dispensation is stability and somewhat better governance, but its ‘authoritarian character’ and centralisation of authority chips into the advantage the BJP and NDA have enjoyed. 

The cry being aired that India is poised to become a 21st century economic super-power, offering an alternative to China for investors looking for growth is actually not quite real.  Why then did Tesla's South African-born boss skip India and visit China, which was obviously a big hit for the country as it considers itself the leader of the South. This has been reiterated by a CNN report which goes on to say that with Prime Minister and industrialists, Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani playing a key role in this regard, India’s position would emerge big in the global arena in the coming decades. This assessment can be questioned as none of these industrialists are known for their social concern except for garnering government favours and making huge profits. 

“Both Adani and Ambani have become key allies as the country embarks on this resolution”, it stated. Reliance Industries and the Adani Group, the two conglomerates, have valuation worth over $200 billion each and have established businesses in sectors ranging from fossil fuels and clean energy to media and technology. The report is somewhat naive and one-sided as a country cannot move on the basis of investments along with profit-taking of two corporate groups. Moreover, there is no record of how these groups are helping the process of balanced economic development, rural regeneration, and employment generation as these are vital and critical problems at this juncture.  

Also, though the report has talked of infrastructural boost of the present government is a well-known fact that social infrastructure continues to be neglected, thereby proving that the government is not giving priority to grass-root development and mitigating the problems of the rural poor. Free education and health and providing these facilities at affordable costs to the marginalised sections is a must, which the ruling dispensation has been ignoring. India may become an economic power with the rich and middle-income sections prospering and inequality widening to unprecedented levels while the poor and the economically weaker sections struggling for survival.   

In this connection, it is interesting to make a note of what Rahul Gandhi has stated: that the “Modi government works for 22 businessmen of the country. He waived off loans worth Rs 16 lakh crores of these corporates”. If this is true, then the question arises whether the policy focus of the government is on grass-root development taking place. 

Social analysts and youth leaders have also pointed out that the policy-makers of the government prefer to remain ignorant of the dimension of the socio-economic problems, specially relating to youth. The intervention actually needed and what the government has been doing for the youth is poles apart and much more action is called for. Even the government is not filling up vacant posts, not to speak of increased and necessary allocation for the rural employment scheme, or even encouraging research by ensuring that grants are adequate for the universities and educational institutions.  

It is no denying that common people, including the educated youth have lost faith in the politics of the country, primarily because of false propaganda of leaders, being entrenched in corruption and maintaining an unholy nexus with business houses and completely neglecting the demands of the marginalised and backward sections of society. Taking opportunity of the incapability of the government to solve basic problems, the ruling dispensation has diverted attention of the people by bringing religion into politics. 

The civil society is not in a position to challenge their false promises and ensure that they do not give unachievable and alluring hopes to the struggling masses. The attention of the half-educated sections has been captured not by improving their living standards or creating more employment opportunities but by playing with religious sentiments.   

Though as days pass by, it is increasingly being felt that the ‘hypocrisy’ of the BJP is steadily being exposed and even if it does come back to power due to Modi’s charisma or its organisational strength or a strong alternative, theissues of grassroot development will remain. The campaigns not just of the BJP but of many regional parties like the TMC, NCP etc. too haven’t honestly dealt with basic problems of the people but more to remain in power. Would it be right to call this ‘Amrit Kaal’? 

Though the contention of Rahul Gandhi that the BJP would get around 200 seats may be pessimistic, the figure according to many pundits may not cross 280 seats. The temple in Ayodhya has not generated the hype that BJP expected, the Chinese occupation has become a talking point and the economic issues of the day, the utter disregard for dissent in public life have overshadowed whatever positive action manifested in Modi’s governance. All these factors as also growing dissatisfaction of the educated unemployed youth and rural masses with governance, has raised doubts whether ‘Modi’s guarantee’ would get the party 400 plus seats, as being claimed. With three more phases of polling due, presumably bets will keep changing. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Kejriwal Out, Soren In: DIFFERENT STROKES FOR NETAS?, By Poonam I Kaushish, 14 May 2024 Print E-mail

Political Diary

New Delhi, 14 May 2024

Kejriwal Out, Soren In

DIFFERENT STROKES FOR NETAS?

By Poonam I Kaushish 

When truth becomes a casualty, you end up with only babble. This lexicon alongside another Orwellian truism: Some men are more equal than others stands, testimony to our continuing dance of democracy interspersed with vicious diatribe between BJP and INDIA Bloc as our fractured polity enters the fifth phase of polling with 132 seats Lok Sabna up for grabs. A sense of de ja vu overwhelms. 

Certainly, taint, caste and creed are the incessant flavour of this electoral political season. Wherein power and smear go saath-saath. If yesterday bail granted to Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal and AAP Chief for his role in irregularities and kickbacks in the now scrapped 2021 Delhi liquor policy, hogged headlines, today the sun did not shine on former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren as Supreme Court refused interim bail in connection with a money laundering case linked to an alleged land scam worth crores. Posting the matter for hearing 17 May. Earlier Jharkhand High Court had dismissed Soren's petition against his arrest 3 May. The JMM leader was arrested on 31 January after he resigned as Chief Minister. 

A classic case of different strokes for different folks.

Citing the recent release from jail of Kejriwal as an example, Soren’s plea too was aimed at allowing his participation in campaigning for his JMM Party in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. “My case is covered by Kejriwal's order and I need bail for election campaigning highlighting the imminent conclusion of elections,” Soren's lawyer argued.

It stands to reason that if the same Bench granted interim bail to Kejriwal 10 May till 1 June to campaign for elections and surrender on 2 June why not to Soren as both cases relate to Party Chiefs as also both being Chief Ministers of their respective States. 

Specially against the background of the Court’s observation, “There is no gain saying that elections are the most significant and an important event this year ..... to ignore the prodigious importance would be iniquitous and wrong....supplying the vis-viva to a democracy.” Even as it made clear that bail was not a comment on the merits of the case or on the pending appeal against his arrest 21 March. It highlighted elections as the “barometer and lifeline of the Parliamentary system and its setup and ignoring elections prodigious importance would be iniquitous and wrong.”. 

True, it is debateable whether the right to campaign can be grounds of bail as it is not fundamental, Constitutional or legal right. But as the Court surmised that since Kejriwal is neither a habitual offender or threat to society but an elected representative of people and Party Chief he was given bail. But that hold true of Soren too, but he got no relief. 

The Court for reasons hard to fathom also dismissed Enforcement Directorate’s logic: It would create two classes of citizens and privilege politicians over others. If a politician could get interim bail to campaign, then a farmer or a company director was entitled to the same relief to attend his crops or a board meeting respectively, as all vocations were equal in stature. 

The Court however, asserted granting a political leader interim bail to campaign for polls could not be compared to either a farmer seeking bail to tend to his harvest or a businessman wanting to attend a board meeting. Instead, a “more holistic and libertarian view is justified as an elected person is not just an individual but the people’s representative and participation in campaign is an inextricable part of elections. 

Undeniably, the Court order on Kejriwal is extraordinary as it is attempts to send a message on the Opposition’s charge of misuse of CBI, ED etc by the Government to harass leaders opposed to it. It also underlines that in the garb of criminal procedure democracy cannot be undermined and leaders arrested on election eve in name of investigation and Courts will not be mute spectators. 

Further, in TDP Chief Chandrababu Naidu’s case too, the Apex Court had “deleted the condition restraining the respondent” from participating in the political process while granting him interim bail. 

Undoubtedly, granting bail could open Pandora’s box for more politicians and criminals-turned netas to exploit this loophole. They may use the poll period and the pretense of campaigning in elections to any of the three-tier system --- Centre, State or local level elections as a fatal flaw to avoid a jail term. 

In fact, it has raised apprehensions that hardcore criminals could infiltrate elections and seek relief from Courts based on this ground, which has now been deemed one of the legitimate grounds for relief. While it may not be a clinching ground for Courts to grant bail, it may establish it as an extra ground to seek relief and cast aspersions on the trial process and tilt the balance of scale in favour of the appellant. 

Furthermore, this could create a new category of litigation for criminals who might include Kejriwal’s case as additional argument, whereby it might end up hampering the merits of the case permanently including putting influence on witnesses, evidence tampering and quid-pro-quo. This could occur in cases where agencies, constrained by time since the commencement of investigation, fail to gather conclusive evidence, in time, to outweigh this newly established ground for relief. 

Also, others leaders who have not been proven guilty in a Court too might seek temporary relief during election period, as bypassing the merits of a case renders every defence of the probing agency futile in preventing relief or bail on grounds of campaigning. 

Big deal if the order underscored that politicians are truly a separate class, higher in status than ordinary citizen and immune from arrest. Whereby, even ordinary people and every criminal would vie to be a politician and turn campaigners to stay out of prison. 

It has already started roiling with Khalistani separatist and Waris Punjab De Chief Amritpal Singh detained under the National Security Act recently seeking similar relief for seven days from Punjab and Haryana High Court to file his nomination as an independent candidate to contest elections and campaign which is not possible from jail. But the Court denied his pleas as “it is the concern of the nation and security.”

Alongside, it raises disturbing questions about our democracy. That it does not strike any chord among our leaders who have reduced graft to a farcical political pantomime. There is no sense of outrage or shame. Can one compromise on corruption? Does politics force an indulgence on issues of governance and probity? Is this part of political dharma? 

Alas, a fine distinction is drawn between a “politically-motivated” charge and actual conviction. Such is the intoxicating nasha of power that all conveniently choose to shrug it off. Dismissed at best as an aberration and at worst a squeaky knee with which one can live with. 

At stake today is not only the functioning of the largest democracy but its Constitutional agenda which is more substantive than partisan politics. Consequently, where we go from here would depend on how citizens use democratic levers available to them. What gives? ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

Gold New World Currency: RBI’S RESERVES SWELL!, By Shivaji Sarkar, 13 May 2024 Print E-mail

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 13 May 2024

Gold New World Currency

RBI’S RESERVES SWELL! 

By Shivaji Sarkar 

In a strategic move reminiscent of Indian households safeguarding their wealth, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is fortifying the nation’s economic resilience by actively acquiring gold reserves. This bold initiative mirrors the prudence of household savers, as the central bank positions itself to shield against potential economic turmoil and bolster the country's financial stability. 

The RBI now has accumulated gold reserves of 817 tonnes. This surge can be attributed to a combination of factors including escalating tensions in West Asia, Israel assault on Palestine, the Russia-Ukraine war, and persistent inflation, all of which have heightened the appeal of gold. 

Central banks worldwide are actively accumulating gold to diversify reserves and reduce dependency on the US dollar. China, in particular, has been on a gold-buying spree for the 17th consecutive month, aiming to hedge against currency depreciation and geopolitical risks. The world is unofficially going back to gold standards it abandoned in 1971. 

India is also hit by a continuous six-day fall in the stock market. It wipes out a significant investment. The loss is estimated at Rs 7 lakh crore. The household savers, of course, got their savings dipped as unemployment and rising prices hit them. Though RBI. in a clarificatory note on May 9, mentions that “they are putting their savings into real estate and the central bank is not worried of the phenomenon”.   

The bank itself has stepped up gold purchases to “help diversify its foreign exchange reserves base amid the US dollar volatility”. The US inflation rate in February hit 3.2 per cent year over year. Since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022, it has raised rates to 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent in July 2023. It’s holding further raise in view of the US elections. 

The price of gold has surged over 10 per cent since the start of the year, cementing its status as a preferred hedge against inflation and a sanctuary amid political and economic uncertainty. This significant uptick is largely due to considerable purchases by central banks and a rising demand for safe-haven assets. 

Gold prices, in India, have been experiencing a significant surge in 2024, with a remarkable rally that has propelled them to an unprecedented all-time high of over Rs 73,000 per 10 gm two days before Akshay Tritiya, when customary gold purchases reach a peak. This surge represents an impressive increase of approximately 21.1 per cent within the span of just one year. On the day of Akshaya Tritiya on May 10, it has slightly dipped to Rs 72,788. Over six months, domestic gold prices surged from Rs 54000 per 10 grams to a record high of Rs 73,958. 

One can realise that nothing can appreciate faster than the gold and can’t question the RBI’s sagacity. One dollar is at Rs 83.88. Rupee is expected to rise to Rs 82.50 in six months, a gain of about a 1.1 per cent, and in a year it could rise to Rs 82 - a gain of 1.7 per cent. It means the RBI dollar reserves would lose about 2 per cent value in a year. So, the RBI has decided to buy more gold than dollars. Its investment would be less at even Rs 73000 for 10 gm and gains over 20 per cent. That’s an intelligent economy.

The RBI has increased gold purchases to diversify reserves, with gold value contributing to a $3 billion rise in forex reserves to $648.5 billion. The RBI is acquiring more gold in early 2024, aiming for diversification and inflation hedging. The World Gold Council (WGC) says that RBI gold purchases touch 19 tonnes during January-March. This dwarfs the 16 tonnes of gold it bought in the whole of 2023. 

In terms of countries with the highest gold reserves, USA leads with 8,133 tonnes, followed by Germany, Italy, France, and the Russian Federation with 3,366.49, 2,451.84, 2,436.01, and 2,271.16 tonnes of gold, respectively, according to WGC. The surge in central banks’ gold acquisitions stemmed from the aftermath of the US imposition of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, included freezing Russian reserve dollars and imposing restrictions on crucial commodity trades such as crude oil. The global repercussions of these measures were profound, exposing vulnerabilities within Western financial institutions. 

The option of investments in the stocks has become riskier. In February, China divested an additional $22.7 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, as per the latest Federal Reserve data, reducing its total holdings to $775 billion. Despite this decrease, China retains its position as the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. China is reducing its dependence on dollar, as per US Federal Reserve data. 

According to ICICI direct study, the RBI wants to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar. Gold offers stability and isn’t directly tied to the performance of any one currency. It can be especially valuable during times of economic uncertainty or fluctuations in the dollar’s value. Gold is considered as a hedge against inflation. When the value of currencies weakens due to inflation, gold tends to hold its value or even increase. It protects the purchasing power of India’s foreign reserves. 

The diversification of the portfolio to gold reserve, RBI says, can inspire confidence in the Indian economy from foreign investors. It signals a strong financial position and stability, potentially attracting more foreign investment. While less common today, gold can still be used for international transactions. Holding a gold reserve allows India to settle debts with other countries if needed, even if those countries aren’t willing to accept the rupee. 

The next few years can be times of turmoil and gold can be a stabilising factor in the international economy. It is particularly so as the IT sector, industry, markets are in a destabilised condition and would take time to calm. At such volatile times, gold is likely to be more in demand than paper currencies. The RBI has resorted to the right move and lead the India economy, which has been striving to become one of the major world economies.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

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