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China’s “Two Sessions” 2025: RHETORIC OF SUCCESS & SYSTEMIC RISKS, By Maciej Gaca, 22 March 20 Print E-mail

Spotlight

New Delhi, 22 March 2025

China’s “Two Sessions” 2025

RHETORIC OF SUCCESS & SYSTEMIC RISKS

By Maciej Gaca

(Centre for International Relations, Poland) 

Following the turmoil on global scene caused by the Trump administration, China is changing strategy in a bid to use the moment. The analysis of this year’s March sessions of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the State Council of the People's Republic of China forms a coherent narrative of “controlled modernisation.” This narrative aims to emphasise China’s economic and geopolitical ambitions while masking growing systemic contradictions. Three main lines of tension are evident: the economy, security, and the Taiwan issue—all further enriched by the significant theme of "lawfare." 

The government’s GDP growth target of 5%, reiterated by Li Qiang, continues the 2024 strategy, which relies heavily on exports (trade surplus reached $1 trillion). However, this year's budget deficit (4% of GDP—a historic record) is financed by issuing local bonds (4.5 trillion RMB) and central bonds (2 trillion RMB). This short-term solution deepens public debt, which will exceed 110% of GDP this year.

The 500 billion RMB technological modernization program and 30% stimulus support for high-tech sectors (AI, semiconductors, green energy) resemble Japan's industrial model of the 1980s, but with a key difference—lack of market openness and competition. The outdated structure, where 60% of loans still go to state-owned giants, hinders the transition to a consumer-driven economy (household spending as a share of GDP has already fallen to just 38%, according to analyses by The Economist and the World Bank). 

In this context, Xi Jinping's February 2025 meeting with leaders of Chinese tech giants, including Jack Ma, aimed to signal openness to the private sector. Despite declarations of support for the private sector, 60% of loans still go to state-owned enterprises, maintaining structural economic imbalances. This model results in a record-low share of consumer spending in GDP at 38%. While Xi's meeting with Jack Ma briefly excited investors (Alibaba's market capitalization increased by $90 billion within days), the market quickly interpreted it as a political signal rather than a promise of genuine economic liberalization. It is thus a policy of gestures, not the beginning of real structural reforms. 

Li Qiang's report clearly identifies the state as the key pillar of China's internal stability, placing statism and digital authoritarianism at the center of the security strategy. The March sessions of the NPC and the State Council of the PRC brought specific decisions aimed at shielding China's economy from immediate shocks but may deepen long-term structural problems. 

One key measure is the restructuring of local debt—2.8 trillion RMB of bad loans were transferred to central funds. While this operation seemingly stabilizes local budgets, it merely shifts financial risk to the central level, increasing pressure on an already strained budget deficit (4% of GDP). Simultaneously, state-owned companies are taking over a million unsold apartments, artificially maintaining real estate market stability. However, analysts point out that this policy only prolongs the speculative bubble and delays necessary reforms. 

Significant investments in AI-powered monitoring systems (87 billion RMB) highlight the emphasis on digital social control. These measures aim not only to suppress social discontent more effectively but also to strengthen mechanisms for early detection of socio-economic threats. The IRIS think tank notes that "Beijing consciously prioritizes stability over economic efficiency," as evidenced by a 22% drop in company bankruptcies in 2024, mainly due to state intervention rather than real improvement in business conditions. 

At the same time, the government announced a 7.2% increase in military spending to 1.78 trillion RMB. Officially, the goal is further army modernization, but a significant portion of these funds primarily supports employment in the state-owned defense complex, which employs 12 million people. Such actions mask the unprofitability of strategic economic sectors, diverting funds to maintain jobs instead of investing in innovations or developing new military technologies. 

Despite these measures, China still faces a fundamental demographic challenge. The number of births fell to a record low of 8 million in 2024, posing a serious threat to structural stability in the coming decades. An aging society, combined with growing public debt and declining innovation, calls into question the effectiveness of the current strategy of statism and digital authoritarianism. In the long term, this could become a source of significant systemic risk, much harder to manage than current crises. 

The March sessions of the NPC and the State Council of the PRC clearly indicated an evolution in Beijing's strategy toward Taiwan, shifting from direct military threats to a more subtle yet equally dangerous strategy of economic integration and legal pressure ("lawfare"). The foundation of these actions is the 2005 Anti-Secession Law, which gives China the legal right to intervene in the event of a unilaterally interpreted threat to territorial unity, treating Taiwan as a domestic issue. 

In recent years, Beijing has strengthened its legal strategy with additional regulations—the Cybersecurity Law (2017) and the National Intelligence Law (2018). These laws compel Chinese companies to cooperate with security forces, increasing economic and intelligence pressure on Taiwanese companies operating on the mainland. As a result, Taiwan's economic dependence on China is growing: already, 45% of Taiwanese SMEs have capital ties with entities from the PRC. 

Elements of economic assimilation include new economic zones in Fujian and Guangdong provinces and the "Young Dreams" program, offering free vocational courses and grants for young Taiwanese, aiming to increase their loyalty to the "common homeland." Despite these integration efforts, this strategy faces strong social resistance—78% of Taiwanese residents oppose unification, seeing it as a threat to their sovereignty and national identity. 

Beijing's lawfare also translates into international attempts to isolate Taiwan, including misinterpreting UN resolutions and promoting the narrative that the Taiwan issue is solely "China's internal matter." As a result, the PRC seeks to limit the island's diplomatic space, using law as a tool of geopolitical pressure. Similar actions are being taken by Beijing in the South China Sea, where legal arguments are used to legitimize territorial claims, despite numerous arbitration rulings questioning their validity. 

Paradoxically, however, the lawfare offensive leads to increased resistance to China, both in Taiwan and among South China Sea regional states. According to IISS experts, while Beijing's legal strategy gives it a short-term advantage, in the long run, it provokes stronger regional resistance, potentially increasing China's international isolation. 

In sum, the strategy presented during the 2025 “Two Sessions” balances between rhetorical declarations of success and real systemic risks. The economy remains dependent on exports, vulnerable to global trade disruptions (e.g., U.S. 20% tariffs and European slowdown). The security policy, despite effectively suppressing social tensions through digital authoritarianism, does not address structural problems such as an aging society or growing public debt. Meanwhile, regarding Taiwan, the subtle economic-legal strategy may paradoxically strengthen Taiwanese national identity—according to a March 2025 survey, 78% of the island's residents oppose unification. 

Simultaneously pursuing goals of social control, nationalist mobilization, and technological modernization leads to contradictory outcomes. In the short term, this may create an illusion of stability, but in the long term, it risks economic stagnation and international isolation. Xi Jinping's strategy requires constant maneuvering between ideological dogmatism and economic pragmatism—a balance increasingly difficult to maintain amid growing internal systemic contradictions and global competition. Xi balances between two historical extremes, attempting to combine Mao Zedong's revolutionary ideological radicalism with Deng Xiaoping's economic pragmatism. However, such a policy inevitably generates internal tensions, as authoritarian control and reluctance to deeper reforms limit the possibilities for genuine economic development and innovation.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Raisina Dialogue 2025: PRIORITISING PEACE,By Dr. DK Giri, 21 March 2025 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 21 March 2025

Raisina Dialogue 2025

 Prioritising Peace

By Dr. DK Giri

(Prof. NIIS Group of Institutions, Odisha) 

The Raisina Dialogue is an annual event providing a platform for multiple global stakeholders in world affairs. The dialogue is dedicated to geopolitics and geo-economics. The deliberations this year from 17 to 19 March was the 10th edition of the Dialogue. 

It goes without saying that dialogue is the most preferred way to move things forward in life between people and countries. In International community, the dialogue is called diplomacy as they go together in mutual interactions. There is an expression in Indian local wisdom, used almost as aphorism that “dialogues can resolve a lot of contentious issues, also dialogues if not conducted well can disrupt things”. The latest spat between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and American President and Vice President is an example of the latter part of the Indian local axiomatic expression. 

However, such dialogues, institutionalised by several countries contribute to the conduct of global affairs. The IISS Sangri la dialogue is another such event taking place in Singapore. It is devoted to security issues. 

The working assumption is that such dialogues enrich the global wisdom and lead to more effective policy making.  So, we hope.  The downside of dialogues, if they are not put into action, is that they turn such events into talking shops. Even the United Nations is derisively called a talking shop for want of meaningful action on the ground. 

That said, this year’s dialogue was so nicely conceptualised and named. It was called “Kalachakra: People, Peace and Planet.” Again, the word has tremendous meaning. Kalachakra in Indian spiritual tradition means the cycle of time. In Buddhist understanding, the Kalachakra tantra is a kind of pedagogy which means the cycle of time involving the external environment, the Universe, and the cycle of developing and disintegrating. The choice of the title has been so apt to capture the essence of our times. The subtext is even more intellectually captivating, “people, peace and planet”. The priority put on these three categories is appropriate to the time. People should be at the centre of planning or policy making, peace is a crying need of the time and saving or maintaining the planet is urgent. 

However, the six pillars that constructed the dialogue were coined a tad idiomatically. In such dialogues that ought to lead to influencing actions in terms of fresh initiatives or course correction, the words and phrases should be comprehendible. The six thematic sessions or pillars were: politics interrupted: shifting sands and rising tides. Second, Resolving the Green Trilemma: who, where and how. Third, Digital Planet: Agents, Agencies and Absences, a good alliteration of words, but Absences do not fit in, Agents and Agencies are analogues. Fourth, Militant Mercantilism: Trade, Supply Chain and Exchange Rate Addiction. The last phrase in the subtext presupposes bias. The academic dialogues could be free from a priori judgements. Fifth, The Tiger’s Tail: Rewriting Development with a New Plan. Again, the idiom Tiger's Tail is a bit baffling. Catching the tiger by its tail is so risky and tough. So, is rewriting development? It is a bit pessimistic. Sixth, Investing in Peace: Drivers, Institutions and Leadership. I will reluctantly let it pass. The need for peace cannot be overstated. 

The Sixty Session to my mind was the crux of the whole dialogue. If an Indian platform was pushing the peace process in the world, it is authentic and credible. Although some of us were critical of New Delhi's fence- sitting posture, it has stood her in good stead at this moment. New Delhi maintained neutrality during the Ukraine war. Prime Minister Modi could book two capitals -- Kiev and Moscow within a gap of two weeks. That was highly commendable. 

Donald Trump has endorsed such a position. He is bent upon bringing the war to an end without calling out Russia, and a bit of chiding to Zelenskyy for war mongering. The point is war must end. After the war, negotiations could continue for resettlement of territories and resolution of security concerns etc. Many world leaders were patting Zelenskyy’s back for standing up to “Goliath”. But at what cost? There was no end in sight of the bloodshed. 

In fact, the Ukraine war was the biggest challenge to the wisdom of the world leaders. Europe was at a loss. Biden was baffled. China was calculating. New Delhi was fretting. So, all these have to end. Hopefully, Raisina Dialogue will contribute to the peace process. 

The only concern is that New Delhi should not be neutral to the peace making. Modi should rally with Donald Trump and extend a hand. Trump may be odd in his articulations, but his intentions are apparent. 

The Raisina Dialogue is well attended. About 125 countries participated. The Prime Minister of New Zealand was the keynote speaker and the Chief Guest. The event also featured Tulsi Gabbard, the United States Director of National Intelligence, alongside multiple other American intelligence officials. Juraj Blanar, Foreign Minister of Slovakia, Enrique A. Manalo, Foreign Minister of the Philippines, E.P. Chet Greene & Foreign Minister of Antigua and Barbuda also attended the event. 

Other Dignitaries including Abdulla Khaleel, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Maldives, Abla Abdel Latif, Executive Director and Director of Research, The Egyptian Centre for Economic Studies,  Abraham Denmark, Director, Asia Program, The Asia Group, Adrian Haack, Director, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Alok Verma, Managing Director, Asia Pacific, Topsoe India Pvt. Ltd., Ana Miguel dos Santos, Former Member, Deputy to the European Parliament, Andrew Hawley, Managing Director, Ghost Partners, Anthony Barsamian, Board of Trustees, Hutchings Barsamian, Mandelcorn, LLP, Arati Davis, Lead, Business Co-Development, Leadership Group for Industry Transition, Arya Sofia Meranto, Senior Policy Advisor, Munich Security Conference also participated in the event. These individuals were engaged in discussions and debates on various topics, including geopolitics, geo-economics, climate change, and international relations. 

All these make the Dialogue worthwhile for many. The only rider is that it should lead to a change of mindset, strategy shift and policy adjustment. At the end of the day, the world needs peace, ironically at any cost.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

RAJIV, BOFORS SCANDAL AND WAY OUT, By Inder Jit, 20 March 2025 Print E-mail

REWIND

New Delhi, 20 March 2025

RAJIV, BOFORS SCANDAL AND WAY OUT

By Inder Jit

Parliament's briefest-ever session last week left much to be desired. Sadly and inexplicably, both Houses were adjourned sine die after the third day-- a day ahead of schedule. Several basic issues agitating the people's mind failed to come up for any worthwhile consideration, except that of communalism. Soaring prices, which are hurting almost all our people, received scant attention. The Opposition did succeed in raising a discussion in the Rajya Sabha on the latest Bofors revelations by the Hindu, thanks to a courageous and correct stand taken by the Chairman, Dr S.D. Sharma, in the face of heavy Government pressure. But there was virtually no discussion on the Government's style of functioning, especially in relation to the vital question of national security. Is the Government conducting itself in accordance with established democratic norms? Or is it being run by the Prime Minister individually from the PMO -- Prime Minister's Office?

The short duration discussion on the Bofors scandal, too, was largely disappointing. It was ruled at the outset that the discussion would be limited strictly to two and a half hours under the rules. Consequently, Mr Gurupadswamy, Janata Dal, and Mr Dipen Ghosh (CPM) got no more than ten to twelve minutes each. Mr Jaswant Singh, BJP, one of the best informed members, got barely five minutes to seek clarifications. Eventually, we sat through in the Press gallery for full six hours of which almost two hours were taken up by the Defence Minister, Mr K.C. Pant and, earlier by the Minister of State for Home, Mr P. Chidambaram. This crude parliamentary manoeuvre did deny the Opposition leaders adequate opportunity to raise issues properly and in perspective. However, it gave them enough time to push the Prime Minister deeper into the dock personally. For the first time in Parliament, Mr Rajiv Gandhi and his family were accused of direct involvement in the kickbacks, now reportedly totalling at least Rs 160 crores!

Mr Gandhi thus faces an Opposition charge which no previous Prime Minister in India has had to countenance. Indeed, his credibility and honour are under frontal attack at a time when the country is getting ready for the next poll battle. The question is: Will he face the challenge boldly or will he allow some of his close but in-experienced aides to mislead him once again? He can still meet the challenge and clear his name provided he is willing to take courage in both hands and go all out to get at the truth. First and fore-most, he must personally seek the help of the Swedish Prime Minister, Mr Carlsson, in identifying the culprits. He is fully entitled to do so since Olof Palme, the former Swedish Prime Minister, personally sought his assistance in securing the 155 mm gun deal for Bofors. Some letters have no doubt gone from our Government to the Swedish Government. Surprisingly, however, these have only been written at the official level and have not yielded the desired results.

The Prime Minister must simultaneously take up the matter with the Swiss Prime Minister. Mr Chidambaram accused the Swiss Government of having declined to cooperate and said: "For the past three months we have looked at the Swiss and Indian laws and concluded that the Swiss refusal was incorrect. We believe they are obliged to give us information." Significantly, he avoided answering a pointed query from Mr Jaswant Singh: "Why have we sought Swiss help in dealing only with tax evasion, not specifying bribery, perjury and corruption?" If Mr Chidambaram is sure of his ground, why has the matter not been taken up at the highest Government level? Why has he been sitting pretty over the matter for three months? Mr Gandhi should now take up the matter with his opposite number. Happily, the Swiss Foreign Minister, Mr Rene Felber, indicated on October 13 at Mexico City the Swiss Government's willingness to reveal banking secrets to prevent illegal actions and money-laundering.

Much else will need to be done by the Prime Minister to establish his credibility. Importantly, he must take strong action against those who concealed vital information regarding Moresco, the mysterious conduit, from the Joint Parliamentary Committee and committed a breach of privilege. Mr Win Chadha, too, misled the JPC about Svenska. Action will also need to be taken against two other sets of officials. One, those who, according to the Comptroller & Auditor General, failed to provide a suitable provision in the Bofors contract for    excluding agents -- and also ignored the information provided by our High Commission in London in July 1985 that Bofors had a representative in India. Two, those in the CBI who failed to get from Geneva information which the Hindu was easily able to get about Moresco and Pitco. Remember, the CBI Chief stumbled on a Swiss firm by the name of Le Moineau but accepted it as the company in question: Moineao SA.

The then Defence Secretary, Mr S.K. Bhatnagar, the Law Secretary, Mr P.K. Partha, the Special Secretary in the PMO, Mr Gopi Arora, and the Additional Defence Secretary, Mr N.N. Vohra, deserve to be complimented for having sought "to ensure complete openness" from Bofors in regard to the contract and precise payments made, vide the minutes of the meeting between them and Mr Morberg on behalf of Bofors on September 19, 1987. But they stand indicted on another score. They seem to have done little thereafter to follow certain commitments made by Mr Morberg in regard to Moresco. The Bofors' executive had then agreed to provide, among other things, "the code names and the banks to which payments in favour of Moresco were remitted." Also the modes of payment with account numbers/codes of the banks to/through which paid, names of persons/parties to whom payments were made. Expectedly, the Opposition members asked: Why? Because of the Italian connection? However, there was no answer.

Importantly, Mr Jaswant Singh raised the issue of national security arising out of General Sundarji's sensational interview to India Today and the Defence Ministry's rejoinder. He asked: Who determines national security. (Gen Sundarji, it may be recalled, took the stand that the Bofors contract could be cancelled without jeopardising national security. The Defence Ministry disagreed.) Further, if the Government differed with General Sundarji's assessment why had it not informed the Army Chief? Mr Pant reaffirmed the Defence Ministry's stand that the Army Chief's view was "only one input" in assessing the threat perception. Lt. Gen. J.S.Aurora interrupted to query: "Did you refer the matter to the Chiefs of Staff Committee?" This seemed to stump Mr Pant, who replied in so many words: "The Navy and the Air Force know little about artillery. This is an artillery matter. An Opposition Member queried: "Is security then a matter to be determined by the artillery?" There was again no answer.

Is Mr Gandhi trying to protect some one? Perhaps yes, according to many MPs. Certainly not, according to the others. In any case, this is not the first time that a Prime Minister faces a difficult choice. Nehru encountered following the Chinese debacle a strong demand for Krishna Menon's head. The manner in which the Congress Party tackled the situation offers on object lesson. Durga Das recalls the situation in his Memoirs: India from Curzon to Nehru and After. He writes: "Whichever way Nehru turned, he found pressure on him to throw Menon out... Hare Krushna Mahtab, Deputy Leader of the party, and Mahavir Tyagi claim that the fatal blow was struck by the Executive Committee, whose action they had carefully planned and rehearsed. Nehru shouted at the Committee members at the meeting and threatened to dismiss them all. But the solid phalanx was not intimidated and the Committee made it clear that no one was bigger than the country. Menon must go or...

"Satya Narayan Sinha, Chief Whip and Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, told me that a private meeting he had with Nehru that night at the Prime Minister's residence clinched the issue. He told Nehru point-blank that if he did not drop Menon, his leadership was in danger. Lal Bahadur Shastri confided he, too, met Nehru privately and convinced him that unless he dropped Menon his own position would be endangered. Indira Gandhi, worried for her father's sake, went to Vice President Zakir Hussain and asked him to tell Nehru that Menon's dismissal alone would appease the Congress Party and the country. So, Nehru wrote to Radhakrishnan recommending acceptance of Menon's resignation" -- and a mounting crisis was defused. Mr Gandhi should now adopt one way open to him: go all out to identify those guilty of defrauding the nation and punish them. Much more is at stake than the huge kickbacks.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Melting Glaciers: ADVERSE IMPACT FOR INDIA, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 19 March 2025 Print E-mail

Open Forum

New Delhi, 19 March 2025

Melting Glaciers

ADVERSE IMPACT FOR INDIA

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The United Nations has declared 2025 as the ‘International Year of Glacier Preservation’, given the critical problem of glacier melting. To an environmentalist it has adverse consequences for a country like India, causing floods, avalanches and the like, affecting population, especially those in coastal areas. As the source of many major rivers, including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus, the melting of Himalayan glaciers can have far-reaching impacts on water availability, irrigation, hydropower generation, and socio-economic development in the region. 

Scientists have cautioned that glaciers in the Hind Kush Himalayas are melting at unprecedented rates and could lose up to 75% of the volume by the end of this century. Obviously,this poses a threat of dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion people living downstream along the rivers originating in this mountainous region. 

It is worth noting that ISRO found that over 27% of the Himalayan glacial lakes that have been identified have significantly expanded since 1984, with 130 of those lakes being in India. Significant alterations in glacial lakes have been observed in the catchments of the Indian Himalayan river basins between 1984 and 2023, as per a statement by the space agency. “Of the 2,431 lakes larger than 10 hectares identified during 2016-17, 676 glacial lakes have notably expanded since 1984,” it said. 

The Himalayan mountains, often referred to as the Third Pole because of their extensive glaciers and snow cover, are highly sensitive to changes in the global climate, both in terms of their physical characteristics and societal impacts, says ISRO. “Research conducted worldwide has consistently shown that glaciers across the globe have been experiencing unprecedented rates of retreat and thinning since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the 18thcentury.” 

The ISRO had found 676 lakes have expanded more than twice, while 10 lakes have grown between 1.5 to two times and 65 lakes 1.5 times. It said 130 of the 676 lakes are situated within India, with 65, 7, and 58 located in the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins, respectively. An elevation-based analysis revealed that 314 lakes are located in the 4,000-5,000-metre range and 296 above 5,000 metres. 

The bodies of water, created by the melting of glaciers, are known as glacial lakes and play a crucial role as freshwater sources for rivers in the Himalayan region. “However, these also pose significant risks such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which can have devastating consequences for communities downstream,” said ISRO. “GLOFs occur when glacial lakes release large volumes of melt water due to the failure of natural dams, such as those made of moraine or ice, resulting in sudden and severe flooding downstream. These dam failures can be triggered by various factors, including avalanches of ice or rock, extreme weather events, and other environmental factors.” 

Meanwhile, climate activist, Sonam Wangchuk in a recent letter to the Prime Minister, very pertinently stated that India should take the lead in addressing climate change. This, as he said: “As we all know the glaciers of the Himalayas are melting fast and if this and the accompanying deforestation continue at current rates, then in a few decades our sacred rivers like Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus might become seasonal rivers. This may also mean that the next Maha Kumbh might only happen on sandy remains of the sacred rivers.” 

The activist, like many others, suggested that India should take the lead in mitigating at least some of the ill-effects of climate change in the Himalayan region that have already been felt in various ways. It may be pertinent here to point out that the Himalayas have the third largest deposit of ice and snow on Earth after the Arctic and Antarctica. In this connection, Wangchuk’s suggestion of setting up a commission and declaring major glaciers like the Gangotri and the Yamunotri national treasures need to be adhered to so that there is adequate protection of the Himalayan glaciers, which are a source of the perennial rivers.  

Though Wangchuk gave the example of people migrating from Kumik village in Ladakh’s Zanskar region due to water scarcity to demonstrate how climate change in the Himalayas affected the lives of inhabitants, there are other innumerable such examples. What is most significant to note is the water scarcity that may be caused even as India is slowly becoming a water-stressed nation in recent years. 

It is generally accepted that melting of the Himalayan glaciers could impact the water resources of the country. This can lead to an increase in the volume and intensity of river flows, which can cause flash floods and landslides. It may be mentioned here that the population living in and around the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin was estimated to be over 700 million people in 2022. Also, it is a well-known fact that the Himalayas exert a significant influence on seasonal shifts in the monsoon circulation and the distribution of rainfall in India and this has been decreasing over the years. 

Not just the Himalayan glaciers, but with global temperatures exceeding the critical 1,50C threshold above the pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024, it has been found that the Arctic would be practically ice-free at times in the coming decades, observed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Director, Dr. R. Krishnan. Speaking at the PIC Climate Emergency Conference recently, the scientist presented comprehensive data showing how human activities accelerated global warming. This phenomenon could be observable as early as 2030s.  He warned that the two degree warming threshold globally would likely be exceeded in the coming decade if rapid, deep reductions in carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases were not implemented. 

According to projections of the IPCC, the melting of glaciers could indicate a likely increase in summer rainfall by 4-12% in the near term and 4-25% in the long term. This again will affect the country as the south-west monsoon accounts for 70% of the annual rainfall in India. Moreover, changing monsoon patterns, including increased severity and frequency of storms, could lead to mountain hazards that may destroy critical infrastructure. 

Additionally, the melting of Himalayan glaciers could affect agriculture and the availability of water for irrigation, which could lead to a decline in crop yields and have a significant impact on farmers’ livelihoods. Already, the shortage of water is being felt in several parts of western and central India,and it is expected to accentuate over the years. Moreover, this shortage has added to water pollution affecting the livelihoods of large sections of the population. 

Finally, it goes without saying that the crisis requires a concerted effort to foster regional change in quantifying effects, assessing vulnerability and combating climate change impacts on glacial ecosystems through mitigation and adaptation measures. The world must prioritise the reduction of carbon emissions.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

 

Delimitation Puzzle: NORTH VS SOUTH, By Poonam I Kaushish, 18 March 2025 Print E-mail

Political Diary

New Delhi, 18 March 2025

Delimitation Puzzle

NORTH VS SOUTH

By Poonam I Kaushish 

In this salubrious spring, political temperatures are flaring on delimitation of Lok Sabha seats scheduled 2026. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Stalin fired the first shot by getting 35 State Parties to put forth guidelines on the contentious issue, sounding the bugle for next year’s Assembly poll. They demanded a 30-year freeze on Lok Sabha and Assembly seats till 2056 based on 1971 census. Succinctly a ‘South’ push-back against a BJP-led ‘North’-dominated Centre. 

The halla bol against delimitation in five southern States Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka is understandable as together they elect 130 of 543 MPs. More, having successfully controlled population growth they now risk losing Parliamentary representation as seats are reallocated based on population. Delimitation could diminish their political influence by giving a greater share to Northern States with high population growth. 

Both Stalin and Andhra Chief Minister Naidu argue why their North counterparts which lag behind should be rewarded, resulting in an ageing population and increasing migration. A realignment based solely on population would mean Northern States, with their sheer numbers, would further consolidate their influence over national politics. This, South believe could alter the country’s federal balance, making it harder for them to safeguard their interests in critical policy matters. 

Hence, freeze till 2056, would allow for proper implementation of population stabilisation measures in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand etc. Towards that end both push for couples to have at least three children and promise monetary aid. 

Alongside, South States begrudge Central schemes read freebies packaged as welfarism which helps win polls, viewing them as encroaching on their territory. To preserve its political voice, federal autonomy and economic contributions --- is at odds with North's cries of under-representation --- its drawn a thick red line. 

Think. South contributes 31% to India’s GDP and accounts for 21%  population, which will reduce 26 Lok Sabha seats due to their low fertility rates (1.8 or below). Their representation will decrease from 24% to 19% of total Lok Sabha seats, leaving them with 103 seats. Even if seats are increased to 848, they stand to gain 35 seats, a mere 27% increase compared to 56% hike in seats. 

The fear of being marginalized politically, thereby losing clout in financial bargains along-with shaping policies is the reason behind South upping the ante against delimitation.  Asserted a Tamil MP, “If one wants actual democracy with good or bad, then one person's vote should carry the same power no matter where he resides. 

“As it stands economic disparity is already growing between South and North. Delimitation could deepen this divide, making governance more centralised in North leading to questions of fairness in fiscal federalism. Alternatively, if Lok Sabha seats are reallocated by population, Rajya Sabha should be reformed to give States equal representation regardless of population.” 

Countered his UP colleague, “Representation must reflect population size as per Constitutional principle of proportional representation. Voters in South currently have greater representation per MP than in the North.” Example: UP, Bihar and MP have seen exponential population growth but still have same number of MPs as 1971, leading to severe under-representation. 

Besides, voter registration doesn’t always align with population size in a constituency. Northern States, with a higher share of under-18 residents, see lower registration rates, while Southern States show greater political engagement giving rise to representation disparities. In UP an MP represents an average of 3.1 million people, compared to almost 2 million in Tamil Nadu a gap of 1.1 million. However, difference in registered voters per constituency is just 300,000. 

Undeniably, this stand-off has multiple layers. Not all related to political representation. Yet it feed into concerns the Centre is trying to impose itself on States at the risk of upsetting the federal balance. Take Stalin’s polemical stand over NEET entrance exam, National Education Policy and the three-language formula, unfounded as it may be, is not merely a hangover of the State’s political legacy, which privileges the Tamil linguistic over other markers of citizenship, but has been sharpened by the Centre’s inflexibility in nuancing policies to absorb regional concerns and sensitivities.  He views it as Centre trying to encroach on Tamil Nadu’s autonomy. 

His move also coincides with a perceived BJP drive to spread into Southern States having reiterated its dominance in North. He seeks to stoke apprehensions, imaginery or real, about Hindutva’s homogenizing ambitions. The political context, then encourages framing of issues in warring specters and tidy binaries ---- North vs South an all-conquering winner-takes-all BJP/Hindutva vs rest, representation vs federalism. 

Karnataka’s Congress Government contends Centre’s actions vis-à-vis skewed tax revenue distribution, inequities in GST and disaster relief etc penalise the State. Telangana too accuses Centre of using delimitation as a backdoor strategy to cement its dominance by boosting seats in BIMARU States while sidelining South. 

True, Centre has tried to dispel fears of loss of seats but to no avail. For time immemorial North-South are internally differentiated. Of “better developed” South getting short shrift in comparison to “less developed”  North are reductive --- they paper over many vital geographical, historical, political and policy factors which underlie the phenomenon of some States overtaking others. 

BJP’s bid to expand into South also means a nuancing, leavening and softening of its political project. Similarly, pitting of representation against federalism deserves closer scrutiny. At one level it borrows the majoritarian arguments that have become the common sense on other issues---- caste census demand etc with Congress leading the charge has been raising its head.

On the flip side delimitation freeze contradicts the principle of fair representation outlined in Article 81, which mandates each Lok Sabha MP should represent between 500,000-750,000 people. But with the Constitutional freeze on seat redistribution since 1976, the average population per constituency has increased, with some MPs now representing 3 million people, leading to severe malapportionment. 

Many critics argue delimitation freeze has weakened principle of one person, one vote, which assigns equal weight to each citizen’s vote. Our polity needs to keep in mind that even as the Constitution’s guarantee of political equality is shored by the principle of one-person-one-vote, the Constitutional letter and spirit also holds out protection for minorities (not necessarily defined by religion) and safeguards for federalism. Plainly, it also addresses predicaments in ways that don’t go by a mechanical application of the majority principle alone. 

Clearly, the delimitation puzzle needs a solution as the can has been kicked down the road. Today Stalin wants an encore. The challenge is to forge a new path. The way forward is for the Centre to call an all Party meet to deliberate, discuss and build consensus on delimitation process which ensures no one loses and everyone wins as it goes far beyond carving out new constituencies. 

The Centre should tread with caution. This is not something that should be resolved by an order imposed by it from Delhi. To endure it will require a federalism that’s all cooperative and collaborative, not competitive. Every Party, citizen has a stake in this as it’s about reinforcing the bedrock of democracy --- representation in both number and spirit. 

The principle of one citizen, one vote, one value is central to representative democracy, which means delimitation cannot be deferred indefinitely or be based on old data. Time to build trust between Centre, States and Opposition. The ball is in BJP-led NDA’s court. Will it play ball? 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

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