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China’s “Two Sessions” 2025: RHETORIC OF SUCCESS & SYSTEMIC RISKS, By Maciej Gaca, 22 March 20 |
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Spotlight
New Delhi, 22 March
2025
China’s “Two Sessions” 2025
RHETORIC OF SUCCESS & SYSTEMIC RISKS
By Maciej Gaca
(Centre for International Relations, Poland)
Following the turmoil
on global scene caused by the Trump administration, China is changing strategy
in a bid to use the moment. The analysis of this year’s March sessions of the
National People's Congress (NPC) and the State Council of the People's Republic
of China forms a coherent narrative of “controlled modernisation.” This
narrative aims to emphasise China’s economic and geopolitical ambitions while
masking growing systemic contradictions. Three main lines of tension are
evident: the economy, security, and the Taiwan issue—all further enriched by
the significant theme of "lawfare."
The government’s GDP
growth target of 5%, reiterated by Li Qiang, continues the 2024 strategy, which
relies heavily on exports (trade surplus reached $1 trillion). However, this
year's budget deficit (4% of GDP—a historic record) is financed by issuing
local bonds (4.5 trillion RMB) and central bonds (2 trillion RMB). This
short-term solution deepens public debt, which will exceed 110% of GDP this
year.
The 500 billion RMB technological
modernization program and 30% stimulus support for high-tech sectors (AI,
semiconductors, green energy) resemble Japan's industrial model of the 1980s,
but with a key difference—lack of market openness and competition. The outdated
structure, where 60% of loans still go to state-owned giants, hinders the
transition to a consumer-driven economy (household spending as a share of GDP
has already fallen to just 38%, according to analyses by The Economist
and the World Bank).
In this context, Xi Jinping's
February 2025 meeting with leaders of Chinese tech giants, including Jack Ma,
aimed to signal openness to the private sector. Despite declarations of support
for the private sector, 60% of loans still go to state-owned enterprises,
maintaining structural economic imbalances. This model results in a record-low
share of consumer spending in GDP at 38%. While Xi's meeting with Jack Ma
briefly excited investors (Alibaba's market capitalization increased by $90
billion within days), the market quickly interpreted it as a political signal
rather than a promise of genuine economic liberalization. It is thus a policy
of gestures, not the beginning of real structural reforms.
Li Qiang's report
clearly identifies the state as the key pillar of China's internal stability,
placing statism and digital authoritarianism at the center of the security
strategy. The March sessions of the NPC and the State Council of the PRC
brought specific decisions aimed at shielding China's economy from immediate
shocks but may deepen long-term structural problems.
One key measure is
the restructuring of local debt—2.8 trillion RMB of bad loans were transferred
to central funds. While this operation seemingly stabilizes local budgets, it
merely shifts financial risk to the central level, increasing pressure on an
already strained budget deficit (4% of GDP). Simultaneously, state-owned
companies are taking over a million unsold apartments, artificially maintaining
real estate market stability. However, analysts point out that this policy only
prolongs the speculative bubble and delays necessary reforms.
Significant
investments in AI-powered monitoring systems (87 billion RMB) highlight the
emphasis on digital social control. These measures aim not only to suppress
social discontent more effectively but also to strengthen mechanisms for early
detection of socio-economic threats. The IRIS think tank notes that
"Beijing consciously prioritizes stability over economic efficiency,"
as evidenced by a 22% drop in company bankruptcies in 2024, mainly due to state
intervention rather than real improvement in business conditions.
At the same time, the
government announced a 7.2% increase in military spending to 1.78 trillion RMB.
Officially, the goal is further army modernization, but a significant portion
of these funds primarily supports employment in the state-owned defense
complex, which employs 12 million people. Such actions mask the unprofitability
of strategic economic sectors, diverting funds to maintain jobs instead of
investing in innovations or developing new military technologies.
Despite these
measures, China still faces a fundamental demographic challenge. The number of
births fell to a record low of 8 million in 2024, posing a serious threat to
structural stability in the coming decades. An aging society, combined with
growing public debt and declining innovation, calls into question the
effectiveness of the current strategy of statism and digital authoritarianism.
In the long term, this could become a source of significant systemic risk, much
harder to manage than current crises.
The March sessions of
the NPC and the State Council of the PRC clearly indicated an evolution in
Beijing's strategy toward Taiwan, shifting from direct military threats to a
more subtle yet equally dangerous strategy of economic integration and legal
pressure ("lawfare"). The foundation of these actions is the 2005
Anti-Secession Law, which gives China the legal right to intervene in the event
of a unilaterally interpreted threat to territorial unity, treating Taiwan as a
domestic issue.
In recent years,
Beijing has strengthened its legal strategy with additional regulations—the
Cybersecurity Law (2017) and the National Intelligence Law (2018). These laws
compel Chinese companies to cooperate with security forces, increasing economic
and intelligence pressure on Taiwanese companies operating on the mainland. As
a result, Taiwan's economic dependence on China is growing: already, 45% of
Taiwanese SMEs have capital ties with entities from the PRC.
Elements of economic
assimilation include new economic zones in Fujian and Guangdong provinces and
the "Young Dreams" program, offering free vocational courses and
grants for young Taiwanese, aiming to increase their loyalty to the
"common homeland." Despite these integration efforts, this strategy
faces strong social resistance—78% of Taiwanese residents oppose unification,
seeing it as a threat to their sovereignty and national identity.
Beijing's lawfare
also translates into international attempts to isolate Taiwan, including
misinterpreting UN resolutions and promoting the narrative that the Taiwan
issue is solely "China's internal matter." As a result, the PRC seeks
to limit the island's diplomatic space, using law as a tool of geopolitical pressure.
Similar actions are being taken by Beijing in the South China Sea, where legal
arguments are used to legitimize territorial claims, despite numerous
arbitration rulings questioning their validity.
Paradoxically,
however, the lawfare offensive leads to increased resistance to China, both in
Taiwan and among South China Sea regional states. According to IISS experts,
while Beijing's legal strategy gives it a short-term advantage, in the long
run, it provokes stronger regional resistance, potentially increasing China's
international isolation.
In sum, the strategy
presented during the 2025 “Two Sessions” balances between rhetorical
declarations of success and real systemic risks. The economy remains dependent
on exports, vulnerable to global trade disruptions (e.g., U.S. 20% tariffs and
European slowdown). The security policy, despite effectively suppressing social
tensions through digital authoritarianism, does not address structural problems
such as an aging society or growing public debt. Meanwhile, regarding Taiwan,
the subtle economic-legal strategy may paradoxically strengthen Taiwanese
national identity—according to a March 2025 survey, 78% of the island's
residents oppose unification.
Simultaneously
pursuing goals of social control, nationalist mobilization, and technological
modernization leads to contradictory outcomes. In the short term, this may
create an illusion of stability, but in the long term, it risks economic
stagnation and international isolation. Xi Jinping's strategy requires constant
maneuvering between ideological dogmatism and economic pragmatism—a balance
increasingly difficult to maintain amid growing internal systemic
contradictions and global competition. Xi balances between two historical
extremes, attempting to combine Mao Zedong's revolutionary ideological
radicalism with Deng Xiaoping's economic pragmatism. However, such a policy
inevitably generates internal tensions, as authoritarian control and reluctance
to deeper reforms limit the possibilities for genuine economic development and
innovation.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Raisina Dialogue 2025: PRIORITISING PEACE,By Dr. DK Giri, 21 March 2025 |
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Round The World
New
Delhi, 21 March 2025
Raisina
Dialogue 2025
Prioritising Peace
By Dr. DK Giri
(Prof. NIIS Group of
Institutions, Odisha)
The
Raisina Dialogue is an annual event providing a platform for multiple global
stakeholders in world affairs. The dialogue is dedicated to geopolitics and geo-economics.
The deliberations this year from 17 to 19 March was the 10th edition of the
Dialogue.
It
goes without saying that dialogue is the most preferred way to move things
forward in life between people and countries. In International community, the
dialogue is called diplomacy as they go together in mutual interactions. There
is an expression in Indian local wisdom, used almost as aphorism that “dialogues
can resolve a lot of contentious issues, also dialogues if not conducted well
can disrupt things”. The latest spat between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and
American President and Vice President is an example of the latter part of the
Indian local axiomatic expression.
However,
such dialogues, institutionalised by several countries contribute to the
conduct of global affairs. The IISS Sangri la dialogue is another such event
taking place in Singapore. It is devoted to security issues.
The
working assumption is that such dialogues enrich the global wisdom and lead to
more effective policy making. So, we
hope. The downside of dialogues, if they
are not put into action, is that they turn such events into talking shops. Even
the United Nations is derisively called a talking shop for want of meaningful
action on the ground.
That
said, this year’s dialogue was so nicely conceptualised and named. It was
called “Kalachakra: People, Peace and Planet.” Again, the word has tremendous
meaning. Kalachakra in Indian spiritual tradition means the cycle of time. In
Buddhist understanding, the Kalachakra tantra is a kind of pedagogy which means
the cycle of time involving the external environment, the Universe, and the
cycle of developing and disintegrating. The choice of the title has been so apt
to capture the essence of our times. The subtext is even more intellectually
captivating, “people, peace and planet”. The priority put on these three
categories is appropriate to the time. People should be at the centre of
planning or policy making, peace is a crying need of the time and saving or
maintaining the planet is urgent.
However,
the six pillars that constructed the dialogue were coined a tad idiomatically.
In such dialogues that ought to lead to influencing actions in terms of fresh
initiatives or course correction, the words and phrases should be
comprehendible. The six thematic sessions or pillars were: politics
interrupted: shifting sands and rising tides. Second, Resolving the Green
Trilemma: who, where and how. Third, Digital Planet: Agents, Agencies and
Absences, a good alliteration of words, but Absences do not fit in, Agents and
Agencies are analogues. Fourth, Militant Mercantilism: Trade, Supply Chain and
Exchange Rate Addiction. The last phrase in the subtext presupposes bias. The
academic dialogues could be free from a priori judgements. Fifth, The Tiger’s
Tail: Rewriting Development with a New Plan. Again, the idiom Tiger's Tail is a
bit baffling. Catching the tiger by its tail is so risky and tough. So, is
rewriting development? It is a bit pessimistic. Sixth, Investing in Peace:
Drivers, Institutions and Leadership. I will reluctantly let it pass. The need
for peace cannot be overstated.
The
Sixty Session to my mind was the crux of the whole dialogue. If an Indian
platform was pushing the peace process in the world, it is authentic and
credible. Although some of us were critical of New Delhi's fence- sitting
posture, it has stood her in good stead at this moment. New Delhi maintained
neutrality during the Ukraine war. Prime Minister Modi could book two capitals --
Kiev and Moscow within a gap of two weeks. That was highly commendable.
Donald
Trump has endorsed such a position. He is bent upon bringing the war to an end
without calling out Russia, and a bit of chiding to Zelenskyy for war
mongering. The point is war must end. After the war, negotiations could
continue for resettlement of territories and resolution of security concerns
etc. Many world leaders were patting Zelenskyy’s back for standing up to “Goliath”.
But at what cost? There was no end in sight of the bloodshed.
In
fact, the Ukraine war was the biggest challenge to the wisdom of the world
leaders. Europe was at a loss. Biden was baffled. China was calculating. New
Delhi was fretting. So, all these have to end. Hopefully, Raisina Dialogue will
contribute to the peace process.
The
only concern is that New Delhi should not be neutral to the peace making. Modi
should rally with Donald Trump and extend a hand. Trump may be odd in his
articulations, but his intentions are apparent.
The
Raisina Dialogue is well attended. About 125 countries participated. The Prime
Minister of New Zealand was the keynote speaker and the Chief Guest. The event
also featured Tulsi Gabbard, the United States Director of National
Intelligence, alongside multiple other American intelligence officials. Juraj
Blanar, Foreign Minister of Slovakia, Enrique A. Manalo, Foreign Minister of
the Philippines, E.P. Chet Greene & Foreign Minister of Antigua and Barbuda
also attended the event.
Other
Dignitaries including Abdulla Khaleel, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
Maldives, Abla Abdel Latif, Executive Director and Director of Research, The
Egyptian Centre for Economic Studies,
Abraham Denmark, Director, Asia Program, The Asia Group, Adrian Haack,
Director, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Alok Verma, Managing Director, Asia
Pacific, Topsoe India Pvt. Ltd., Ana Miguel dos Santos, Former Member, Deputy
to the European Parliament, Andrew Hawley, Managing Director, Ghost Partners,
Anthony Barsamian, Board of Trustees, Hutchings Barsamian, Mandelcorn, LLP,
Arati Davis, Lead, Business Co-Development, Leadership Group for Industry
Transition, Arya Sofia Meranto, Senior Policy Advisor, Munich Security
Conference also participated in the event. These individuals were engaged in
discussions and debates on various topics, including geopolitics,
geo-economics, climate change, and international relations.
All
these make the Dialogue worthwhile for many. The only rider is that it should
lead to a change of mindset, strategy shift and policy adjustment. At the end
of the day, the world needs peace, ironically at any cost.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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RAJIV, BOFORS SCANDAL AND WAY OUT, By Inder Jit, 20 March 2025 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 20 March
2025
RAJIV, BOFORS SCANDAL AND WAY OUT
By Inder Jit
Parliament's
briefest-ever session last week left much to be desired. Sadly and
inexplicably, both Houses were adjourned sine die after the third day-- a day
ahead of schedule. Several basic issues agitating the people's mind failed to
come up for any worthwhile consideration, except that of communalism. Soaring
prices, which are hurting almost all our people, received scant attention. The
Opposition did succeed in raising a discussion in the Rajya Sabha on the latest
Bofors revelations by the Hindu, thanks to a courageous and correct stand taken
by the Chairman, Dr S.D. Sharma, in the face of heavy Government pressure. But
there was virtually no discussion on the Government's style of functioning,
especially in relation to the vital question of national security. Is the Government
conducting itself in accordance with established democratic norms? Or is it
being run by the Prime Minister individually from the PMO -- Prime Minister's
Office?
The short duration
discussion on the Bofors scandal, too, was largely disappointing. It was ruled
at the outset that the discussion would be limited strictly to two and a half
hours under the rules. Consequently, Mr Gurupadswamy, Janata Dal, and Mr Dipen
Ghosh (CPM) got no more than ten to twelve minutes each. Mr Jaswant Singh, BJP,
one of the best informed members, got barely five minutes to seek clarifications.
Eventually, we sat through in the Press gallery for full six hours of which
almost two hours were taken up by the Defence Minister, Mr K.C. Pant and,
earlier by the Minister of State for Home, Mr P. Chidambaram. This crude
parliamentary manoeuvre did deny the Opposition leaders adequate opportunity to
raise issues properly and in perspective. However, it gave them enough time to
push the Prime Minister deeper into the dock personally. For the first time in
Parliament, Mr Rajiv Gandhi and his family were accused of direct involvement
in the kickbacks, now reportedly totalling at least Rs 160 crores!
Mr Gandhi thus faces
an Opposition charge which no previous Prime Minister in India has had to
countenance. Indeed, his credibility and honour are under frontal attack at a
time when the country is getting ready for the next poll battle. The question
is: Will he face the challenge boldly or will he allow some of his close but
in-experienced aides to mislead him once again? He can still meet the challenge
and clear his name provided he is willing to take courage in both hands and go
all out to get at the truth. First and fore-most, he must personally seek the
help of the Swedish Prime Minister, Mr Carlsson, in identifying the culprits.
He is fully entitled to do so since Olof Palme, the former Swedish Prime Minister,
personally sought his assistance in securing the 155 mm gun deal for Bofors.
Some letters have no doubt gone from our Government to the Swedish Government.
Surprisingly, however, these have only been written at the official level and
have not yielded the desired results.
The Prime Minister
must simultaneously take up the matter with the Swiss Prime Minister. Mr
Chidambaram accused the Swiss Government of having declined to cooperate and
said: "For the past three months we have looked at the Swiss and Indian
laws and concluded that the Swiss refusal was incorrect. We believe they are
obliged to give us information." Significantly, he avoided answering a
pointed query from Mr Jaswant Singh: "Why have we sought Swiss help in
dealing only with tax evasion, not specifying bribery, perjury and
corruption?" If Mr Chidambaram is sure of his ground, why has the matter
not been taken up at the highest Government level? Why has he been sitting
pretty over the matter for three months? Mr Gandhi should now take up the
matter with his opposite number. Happily, the Swiss Foreign Minister, Mr Rene
Felber, indicated on October 13 at Mexico City the Swiss Government's
willingness to reveal banking secrets to prevent illegal actions and
money-laundering.
Much else will need
to be done by the Prime Minister to establish his credibility. Importantly, he
must take strong action against those who concealed vital information regarding
Moresco, the mysterious conduit, from the Joint Parliamentary Committee and
committed a breach of privilege. Mr Win Chadha, too, misled the JPC about
Svenska. Action will also need to be taken against two other sets of officials.
One, those who, according to the Comptroller & Auditor General, failed to
provide a suitable provision in the Bofors contract for excluding agents -- and also ignored the information provided by
our High Commission in London in July 1985 that Bofors had a representative in
India. Two, those in the CBI who failed to get from Geneva information which
the Hindu was easily able to get about Moresco and Pitco. Remember, the CBI
Chief stumbled on a Swiss firm by the name of Le Moineau but accepted it as the
company in question: Moineao SA.
The then Defence
Secretary, Mr S.K. Bhatnagar, the Law Secretary, Mr P.K. Partha, the Special
Secretary in the PMO, Mr Gopi Arora, and the Additional Defence Secretary, Mr
N.N. Vohra, deserve to be complimented for having sought "to ensure
complete openness" from Bofors in regard to the contract and precise
payments made, vide the minutes of the meeting between them and Mr Morberg on
behalf of Bofors on September 19, 1987. But they stand indicted on another
score. They seem to have done little thereafter to follow certain commitments
made by Mr Morberg in regard to Moresco. The Bofors' executive had then agreed
to provide, among other things, "the code names and the banks to which
payments in favour of Moresco were remitted." Also the modes of payment
with account numbers/codes of the banks to/through which paid, names of
persons/parties to whom payments were made. Expectedly, the Opposition members
asked: Why? Because of the Italian connection? However, there was no answer.
Importantly, Mr
Jaswant Singh raised the issue of national security arising out of General
Sundarji's sensational interview to India Today and the Defence Ministry's
rejoinder. He asked: Who determines national security. (Gen Sundarji, it may be
recalled, took the stand that the Bofors contract could be cancelled without
jeopardising national security. The Defence Ministry disagreed.) Further, if
the Government differed with General Sundarji's assessment why had it not
informed the Army Chief? Mr Pant reaffirmed the Defence Ministry's stand that
the Army Chief's view was "only one input" in assessing the threat
perception. Lt. Gen. J.S.Aurora interrupted to query: "Did you refer the
matter to the Chiefs of Staff Committee?" This seemed to stump Mr Pant,
who replied in so many words: "The Navy and the Air Force know little
about artillery. This is an artillery matter. An Opposition Member queried:
"Is security then a matter to be determined by the artillery?" There
was again no answer.
Is Mr Gandhi trying
to protect some one? Perhaps yes, according to many MPs. Certainly not,
according to the others. In any case, this is not the first time that a Prime
Minister faces a difficult choice. Nehru encountered following the Chinese
debacle a strong demand for Krishna Menon's head. The manner in which the
Congress Party tackled the situation offers on object lesson. Durga Das recalls
the situation in his Memoirs: India from Curzon to Nehru and After. He writes:
"Whichever way Nehru turned, he found pressure on him to throw Menon
out... Hare Krushna Mahtab, Deputy Leader of the party, and Mahavir Tyagi claim
that the fatal blow was struck by the Executive Committee, whose action they
had carefully planned and rehearsed. Nehru shouted at the Committee members at
the meeting and threatened to dismiss them all. But the solid phalanx was not
intimidated and the Committee made it clear that no one was bigger than the
country. Menon must go or...
"Satya Narayan
Sinha, Chief Whip and Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, told me that a
private meeting he had with Nehru that night at the Prime Minister's residence
clinched the issue. He told Nehru point-blank that if he did not drop Menon,
his leadership was in danger. Lal Bahadur Shastri confided he, too, met Nehru
privately and convinced him that unless he dropped Menon his own position would
be endangered. Indira Gandhi, worried for her father's sake, went to Vice
President Zakir Hussain and asked him to tell Nehru that Menon's dismissal
alone would appease the Congress Party and the country. So, Nehru wrote to
Radhakrishnan recommending acceptance of Menon's resignation" -- and a
mounting crisis was defused. Mr Gandhi should now adopt one way open to him: go
all out to identify those guilty of defrauding the nation and punish them. Much
more is at stake than the huge kickbacks.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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Melting Glaciers: ADVERSE IMPACT FOR INDIA, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 19 March 2025 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 19 March
2025
Melting
Glaciers
ADVERSE
IMPACT FOR INDIA
By
Dhurjati Mukherjee
The United Nations has
declared 2025 as the ‘International Year of Glacier Preservation’, given the
critical problem of glacier melting. To an environmentalist it has adverse
consequences for a country like India, causing floods, avalanches and the like,
affecting population, especially those in coastal areas. As the source of many major rivers, including the Ganges, Brahmaputra,
and Indus, the melting of Himalayan glaciers can have far-reaching impacts on
water availability, irrigation, hydropower generation, and socio-economic
development in the region.
Scientists have
cautioned that glaciers in the Hind Kush Himalayas are melting at unprecedented
rates and could lose up to 75% of the volume by the end of this century. Obviously,this
poses a threat of dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion
people living downstream along the rivers originating in this mountainous
region.
It is worth noting
that ISRO found that over 27% of the Himalayan glacial lakes that have been
identified have significantly expanded since 1984, with 130 of those lakes
being in India. Significant alterations in glacial lakes have been observed in
the catchments of the Indian Himalayan river basins between 1984 and 2023, as
per a statement by the space agency. “Of the 2,431 lakes larger than 10
hectares identified during 2016-17, 676 glacial lakes have notably expanded
since 1984,” it said.
The Himalayan
mountains, often referred to as the Third Pole because of their extensive
glaciers and snow cover, are highly sensitive to changes in the global climate,
both in terms of their physical characteristics and societal impacts, says ISRO.
“Research conducted worldwide has consistently shown that glaciers across the
globe have been experiencing unprecedented rates of retreat and thinning since
the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the 18thcentury.”
The ISRO had found
676 lakes have expanded more than twice, while 10 lakes have grown between 1.5
to two times and 65 lakes 1.5 times. It said 130 of the 676 lakes are situated
within India, with 65, 7, and 58 located in the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra river
basins, respectively. An elevation-based analysis revealed that 314 lakes are
located in the 4,000-5,000-metre range and 296 above 5,000 metres.
The bodies of water,
created by the melting of glaciers, are known as glacial lakes and play a
crucial role as freshwater sources for rivers in the Himalayan region. “However,
these also pose significant risks such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs),
which can have devastating consequences for communities downstream,” said ISRO.
“GLOFs occur when glacial lakes release large volumes of melt water due to the
failure of natural dams, such as those made of moraine or ice, resulting in
sudden and severe flooding downstream. These dam failures can be triggered by
various factors, including avalanches of ice or rock, extreme weather events,
and other environmental factors.”
Meanwhile, climate
activist, Sonam Wangchuk in a recent letter to the Prime Minister, very
pertinently stated that India should take the lead in addressing climate
change. This, as he said: “As we all know the glaciers of the Himalayas are
melting fast and if this and the accompanying deforestation continue at current
rates, then in a few decades our sacred rivers like Ganga, Brahmaputra and
Indus might become seasonal rivers. This may also mean that the next Maha Kumbh
might only happen on sandy remains of the sacred rivers.”
The activist, like
many others, suggested that India should take the lead in mitigating at least
some of the ill-effects of climate change in the Himalayan region that have
already been felt in various ways. It may be pertinent here to point out that
the Himalayas have the third largest deposit of ice and snow on Earth after the
Arctic and Antarctica. In this connection, Wangchuk’s suggestion of setting up
a commission and declaring major glaciers like the Gangotri and the Yamunotri
national treasures need to be adhered to so that there is adequate protection
of the Himalayan glaciers, which are a source of the perennial rivers.
Though Wangchuk gave
the example of people migrating from Kumik village in Ladakh’s Zanskar region
due to water scarcity to demonstrate how climate change in the Himalayas
affected the lives of inhabitants, there are other innumerable such examples.
What is most significant to note is the water scarcity that may be caused even
as India is slowly becoming a water-stressed nation in recent years.
It is generally
accepted that melting of the Himalayan glaciers could impact the water
resources of the country. This can lead to an increase in the volume and
intensity of river flows, which can cause flash floods and landslides. It may
be mentioned here that the population living in and around the
Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin was estimated to be over 700 million people
in 2022. Also, it is a well-known fact that the Himalayas exert a significant
influence on seasonal shifts in the monsoon circulation and the distribution of
rainfall in India and this has been decreasing over the years.
Not just the
Himalayan glaciers, but with global temperatures exceeding the critical 1,50C
threshold above the pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024, it has
been found that the Arctic would be practically ice-free at times in the coming
decades, observed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Director, Dr.
R. Krishnan. Speaking at the PIC Climate Emergency Conference recently, the
scientist presented comprehensive data showing how human activities accelerated
global warming. This phenomenon could be observable as early as 2030s. He
warned that the two degree warming threshold globally would likely be exceeded
in the coming decade if rapid, deep reductions in carbon dioxide and greenhouse
gases were not implemented.
According to
projections of the IPCC, the melting of glaciers could indicate a likely
increase in summer rainfall by 4-12% in the near term and 4-25% in
the long term. This again will affect the country as the south-west monsoon
accounts for 70% of the annual rainfall in India. Moreover, changing
monsoon patterns, including increased severity and frequency of storms, could
lead to mountain hazards that may destroy critical infrastructure.
Additionally, the
melting of Himalayan glaciers could affect agriculture and the availability of
water for irrigation, which could lead to a decline in crop yields and have a
significant impact on farmers’ livelihoods. Already, the shortage of water is
being felt in several parts of western and central India,and it is expected to
accentuate over the years. Moreover, this shortage has added to water pollution
affecting the livelihoods of large sections of the population.
Finally, it goes
without saying that the crisis requires a concerted effort to foster regional
change in quantifying effects, assessing vulnerability and combating climate
change impacts on glacial ecosystems through mitigation and adaptation
measures. The world must prioritise the reduction of carbon emissions.---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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Delimitation Puzzle: NORTH VS SOUTH, By Poonam I Kaushish, 18 March 2025 |
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Political Diary
New Delhi, 18 March 2025
Delimitation
Puzzle
NORTH
VS SOUTH
By
Poonam I Kaushish
In this salubrious spring, political
temperatures are flaring on delimitation of Lok Sabha seats scheduled 2026. Tamil Nadu Chief
Minister Stalin fired the first shot by getting 35 State Parties to put forth
guidelines on the contentious issue, sounding the bugle for next year’s Assembly
poll. They demanded a 30-year freeze on Lok Sabha and Assembly seats till 2056 based on 1971 census. Succinctly a ‘South’ push-back
against a BJP-led ‘North’-dominated Centre.
The halla
bol against delimitation in five southern States Tamil
Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka is understandable
as together they elect 130 of 543 MPs. More, having successfully controlled
population growth they now risk losing Parliamentary representation as seats
are reallocated based on population. Delimitation could diminish their
political influence by giving a greater share to Northern States with high
population growth.
Both Stalin and Andhra Chief Minister Naidu
argue why their North counterparts which
lag behind should be rewarded,
resulting in an ageing population and increasing migration. A realignment based solely on population would mean Northern
States, with their sheer numbers, would further consolidate their influence
over national politics. This, South believe could alter the country’s federal
balance, making it harder for them to safeguard their interests in critical
policy matters.
Hence, freeze till 2056, would allow for
proper implementation of population stabilisation measures in UP, Bihar,
Jharkhand etc. Towards that end both
push for couples to have at least three children and promise monetary aid.
Alongside, South
States begrudge Central schemes read freebies packaged as welfarism which helps
win polls, viewing them as encroaching on their territory. To preserve
its political voice, federal autonomy and economic contributions --- is at odds
with North's cries of under-representation --- its drawn a thick red line.
Think. South contributes 31% to India’s GDP
and accounts for 21% population, which will
reduce 26 Lok Sabha seats due to their low fertility rates (1.8 or below).
Their representation will decrease from 24% to 19% of total Lok Sabha seats,
leaving them with 103 seats. Even if seats are increased to 848, they stand to
gain 35 seats, a mere 27% increase compared to 56% hike in seats.
The fear of being marginalized politically,
thereby losing clout in financial bargains along-with shaping policies is the reason
behind South upping the ante against delimitation. Asserted a Tamil MP, “If one wants actual
democracy with good or bad, then one person's vote should carry the same power
no matter where he resides.
“As it stands economic disparity is already
growing between South and North. Delimitation could deepen this divide, making
governance more centralised in North leading to questions of fairness in fiscal
federalism. Alternatively, if Lok Sabha seats are reallocated by population, Rajya
Sabha should be reformed to give States equal representation regardless of
population.”
Countered his UP colleague, “Representation
must reflect population size as per Constitutional principle of proportional
representation. Voters in South currently have greater representation per MP
than in the North.” Example: UP, Bihar and MP have seen exponential population
growth but still have same number of MPs as 1971, leading to severe
under-representation.
Besides, voter registration doesn’t always
align with population size in a constituency. Northern States, with a higher
share of under-18 residents, see lower registration rates, while Southern States
show greater political engagement giving rise to representation disparities. In
UP an MP represents an average of 3.1 million people, compared to almost 2 million
in Tamil Nadu a gap of 1.1 million. However, difference in registered voters
per constituency is just 300,000.
Undeniably, this stand-off has multiple
layers. Not all related to political representation. Yet it feed into concerns
the Centre is trying to impose itself on States at the risk of upsetting the
federal balance. Take Stalin’s polemical stand over NEET entrance exam,
National Education Policy and the three-language formula, unfounded as it may
be, is not merely a hangover of the State’s political legacy, which privileges
the Tamil linguistic over other markers of citizenship, but has been sharpened
by the Centre’s inflexibility in nuancing policies to absorb regional concerns
and sensitivities. He views it as Centre trying to encroach
on Tamil Nadu’s autonomy.
His move also coincides with a perceived BJP
drive to spread into Southern States having reiterated its dominance in North.
He seeks to stoke apprehensions, imaginery or real, about Hindutva’s
homogenizing ambitions. The political context, then encourages framing of
issues in warring specters and tidy binaries ---- North vs South an all-conquering winner-takes-all BJP/Hindutva vs rest, representation vs federalism.
Karnataka’s Congress Government contends
Centre’s actions vis-à-vis skewed tax
revenue distribution, inequities in GST and disaster relief etc penalise the State.
Telangana too accuses Centre of using delimitation as a backdoor strategy to
cement its dominance by boosting seats in BIMARU States while sidelining South.
True, Centre has tried to dispel fears of
loss of seats but to no avail. For time immemorial North-South are internally
differentiated. Of “better developed” South getting short shrift in comparison
to “less developed” North are reductive
--- they paper over many vital geographical, historical, political and policy
factors which underlie the phenomenon of some States overtaking others.
BJP’s bid to expand into South also means a
nuancing, leavening and softening of its political project. Similarly, pitting of
representation against federalism deserves closer scrutiny. At one level it
borrows the majoritarian arguments that have become the common sense on other
issues---- caste census demand etc with Congress leading the charge has been
raising its head.
On the flip side delimitation freeze
contradicts the principle of fair representation outlined in Article 81, which
mandates each Lok Sabha MP should represent between 500,000-750,000 people. But
with the Constitutional freeze on seat redistribution since 1976, the average
population per constituency has increased, with some MPs now representing 3
million people, leading to severe malapportionment.
Many critics argue delimitation freeze has
weakened principle of one person, one vote, which assigns equal weight to each
citizen’s vote. Our polity needs to keep in mind that even as the
Constitution’s guarantee of political equality is shored by the principle of
one-person-one-vote, the Constitutional letter and spirit also holds out
protection for minorities (not necessarily defined by religion) and safeguards
for federalism. Plainly, it also addresses predicaments in ways that don’t go
by a mechanical application of the majority principle alone.
Clearly, the delimitation puzzle needs a
solution as the can has been kicked down the road. Today Stalin wants an
encore. The challenge is to forge a new path. The way forward is for the Centre
to call an all Party meet to deliberate, discuss and build consensus on
delimitation process which ensures no one loses and everyone wins as it goes
far beyond carving out new constituencies.
The Centre should tread with caution. This is
not something that should be resolved by an order imposed by it from Delhi. To
endure it will require a federalism that’s all cooperative and collaborative,
not competitive. Every Party, citizen has a stake in this as it’s about
reinforcing the bedrock of democracy --- representation in both number and
spirit.
The principle of one citizen, one vote, one
value is central to representative democracy, which means delimitation cannot
be deferred indefinitely or be based on old data. Time to build trust between
Centre, States and Opposition. The ball is in BJP-led NDA’s court. Will it play
ball?
(Copyright, India News
& Feature Alliance)
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