Events & Issues

New Delhi, 29 May 2009

Yeddyurappa’s Victory

WILL DELHI PLAY SPOILSPORT?

By Deepak Thimaya

Is anyone surprised with the result of the Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka? Certainly don’t include Karnataka Chief Minister Yeddyurappa in that list. However, he is said to be disappointed that he could not pocket a few more seats that were lost by a small margin and perhaps by a miserable quirk of fate.

His promise to take action against the district in-charge ministers in the losing segments has come in for curious scrutiny because some of the constituencies where the BJP lost, particularly Mysore, were where Yeddyurappa’s close associates and both ‘right and left hand’ ministers are in charge. How he would manage to take action against them would still be a big political question. The fact that the CM is beaming with arrogance and pride for improving his performance with an additional seat compared to last Lok Sabha polls is something not even the most disinterested citizen of Karnataka has failed to notice.

So what happens now in Karnataka? Some Congressmen waiting haplessly for the elusive chair of power say that the re-energized BJP will start committing mistakes clouded by the arrogance of power and that would lead to its own downfall. Or Yeddyurappa may become such a formidable a leader that he may ignorantly allow a fertile ground for dissidence to form just around his feet, which he would fail to see with his nose up in the air all the time.

It is Yeddyurappa’s victory indeed and not the BJP’s, in Karnataka, so what happens to the big leaders of the State at the Centre? In fact, there is none other than Ananth Kumar from Karnataka who represents the BJP in Delhi. It is either him or his stooges in small positions in the national executive council. Kumar himself has won against a young Congress leader, in a roller coaster counting, where the young politician had surged ahead in many Assembly segments sending shivers down the spine and sweat down the chests for many of Kumar’s supporters.

Defeat of Ananth Kumar would have only meant big time trouble for Yeddyurappa, since a jobless Kumar would any day find it worthwhile to occupy himself in the role of the dissidents’ leader. Thus, there could have been none other more relieved in the party than Yeddyurappa himself with Kumar’s ultimate victory.

So what does this astounding victory spell for the BJP in the State? Primarily, it has proven again that this is possible because of caste polarisation and careful political strategising, enabled by large-scale poaching and recruitment from other parties. The BJP now can only crumble under its own weight and its heavy weights. In fact, there are no original heavy weights left in the BJP but those who have come from other parties. To accommodate the leaders, who have not been lucky enough to go to the Lok Sabha or get a ministerial berth in the State, the CM needs to destroy the future of some original party men. This, however, is bound to create a platform for dissidence, which will show its results within the next six months.

Without a strong central leadership to control him, Yeddyurappa could become a law unto himself and the weakening of the mine owners also has come as a great blessing to him. Indeed, he is the unquestionable leader who, with no ambition for power at the Centre, is the King for now. In fact, there are very few among Yeddyurappa’s friends who are crying for the defeat of the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. Some say they are quietly celebrating. With a sulking Advani and other party leaders, Yeddyurappa’s stars are shining brighter than ever, in spite of famous astrologers crying hoarse about the impending gloomy days for him. Whether the brightness of this glory will keep him shining or burn him down only time will tell, but perhaps very soon.

On the Congress front, if anyone believes that there is a chance of the party’s revival in the State after former Chief Minister SM Krishna getting a cabinet berth, then such a dream can be dreamt only in foreign waters. With an epithet like ‘foreign Krishna’ attached to his personality because of his studies abroad, westernised lifestyle and frequent sightings at Wimbledon, even when he was the CM, his love for the foreign shores has now become legitimised with this appointment.  

Whether Kannadigas in particular, Karnataka in general or his own caste -- the Vokkaligas would benefit from his foreign ministry is a smaller question, compared to the big one about political gains, if any for Congress in Karnataka with his new avatar. This post has not only kept Krishna out of State politics and the party in Karnataka but also from any ‘internal politics’ itself, much to the pleasure of Krishna baiters, who would want him out of their political dining table at any cost.

Another former Chief Minister M Veerappa Moily is neither a political heavy weight nor a leader of any group or community, though by default represents the backward classes. His win itself was a surprise to many in a constituency he was alien to. Now as a Union Law Minister, Moily will seek to further get closer to the First family, the Gandhis rather than concentrate on his home State.

Mallikarjuna Kharge, the dalit leader, the one politician who has never seen defeat in any election for over 40 years, is now a Union minister, in charge of labour. This was a long-pending elevation the dalit and backward communities have been waiting for. By missing the CM’s chair time and again thanks to bad timing and bad luck, this was Kharge’s one big chance to find favour in Delhi. Though Kharge is not known as someone who has done much for his own community even when he was minister earlier, there is a question mark whether his being a labour minister would help the party in Karnataka.  

The last and most important person in Congress in the State for now who simply cannot be ignored is former deputy Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who has been waiting in the wings, disgruntled, disappointed, angry and anxious for the post of the opposition leader in the Assembly. The appointment is long overdue and any delay would cost the Congress not just the next election but also its future.

This is the time to wait and watch for the Kannadigas of how things are going to shape for the two national parties and their leaders in the State. To watch and conclude one day who made the most foolish move of them all. And the fool would dig his own grave. --INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 30 May 2009

Challenges Ahead

WILL PM PROVIDE NEW DISHA?

By Poonam I Kaushish

Phew, some things never change in political Delhi. The hustling and muscling to partake the crumbs of office, read ministerial berths. For 11 long days New Delhi had a surfeit of gossip. Newspapers indulged in name-calling, political analysists played inky-pinky-ponky with politicians and portfolios. Couch potatoes made and unmade political careers at the drop of a hat. All proved wrong. In the end Sonia-Manmohan had their way and say. But will they end up smelling of roses?

Undoubtedly, for Manmohan Singh destiny has cast on him the most challenging role of his political career. On his shoulders rests the responsibility of giving a new ‘disha’ to India, torn asunder by caste, creed, crime and corruption. He has to knit it back into a strong cohesive one nation. Bring about a qualitative change for the betterment of the people. Specially the poor who eke out a living by scrounging dustbins and the illiterate who, sadly, continue to live in the last century. This would include building up the physical and social infrastructure. Get India to shine truly. New

Towards that end, the Prime Minister walking a tightrope has tactfully balanced the ministerial ambitions of partymen and allies in his 79-member strong Union Council of Ministers. A mixed bag of old and young, despite a few sulks and clamour of Dil maange more,, it includes 59 Congressmen, 7 each from the DMK and Trinamool, three from NCP and one each from the NC and Muslim League. There are 9 former Chief Ministers ostensibly to stop them from playing politics in their respective States and 9 women. A sum of  “availability of talent” and “other considerations.”

True, to some extent it appears to be old wine in new bottles but nearly a third of the ministerial berths are new with 13 Ministers in their 40s and younger with the average ministerial age standing at 57. Importantly, four messages ring loud and clear. One, continuity of the core group to ensure stability seems to be the main thrust of Manmohan Singh’s Ministry. Two, there are no loose strings or part portfolios. Three, it is a mixture of sacrifice and satisfaction in forming a composite and capable team which gels. Four,  ministers have been appointed wholly on the basis of demonstrable capability and probity. Said Singh, “it is a mixture of experience and energy”

That apart, the Prime Minister knows only to well that governance is no cakewalk given the colossal problems facing the country. Today the janata may be cheering balle-balle but once the honeymoon is over the aam aadmi would demand relief and accountability. Thus, Manmohan Singh’s biggest test would be to strike a balancing act between his reformist instincts and the socialist instincts of allies, notably the Trinimool.  He intends bridging good economics with good politics by laying down policies of “economic reforms with a human face…. policies to promote balanced social and economic development.” Given his track-record of being a flexible and practical man it should be no problem.

Things are a mess all round. The economy shows little sign of recovery, the budget deficit is shooting up, agriculture is stagnating -- food grains rotting, no godown space left and exports banned. Infrastructure in most places is rusting and ramshackle even as India reels under no BSP --- bijli, sadak, paani. Food, health and education are an ongoing disaster story: 60 million children suffering from malnutrition, no basic right to education and subsidies that are a serious financial drain.

Team Manmohan is in a hurry, and ministers handling key infrastructure portfolios are not shying away from putting a date to their plans. The continuity of Ministers in petroleum, civil aviation, telecom, agriculture and urban development is expected to speed track pending policy measures in these key sectors.

Faced with India's highest fiscal deficit since the early 1990s, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had signalled the collective resolve to contain the burgeoning fiscal deficit of 9% even as he injects fresh stimulus to lift the country reeling under recession. He needs to lift growth amid a global slump and contracting domestic demand.

Happily, the Ministers handling HRD, roads, labour, telecom, petroleum, surface transport, steel and corporate affairs too have laid out their immediate agenda, with deadlines in place.  HRD Minister Sibal has made plain his intentions of reforming the education system and giving higher education a push-up. India needs 1,500 universities to attain an enrolment target of 15% by 2015. Besides, he intends allowing reputed foreign universities in to integrate the country with the global knowledge system.

The new Surface Transport Minister Kamal Nath who changed lanes from commerce to roads has hinted at some hard action on the ground soon. He intends pulling the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) out of its present lethargy and put the much delayed expansion of the road networks on a fast track. A boost to road-building can act as a major stimulant for economic growth at this juncture.

Internally the UPA Government has the toughest and most thankless task before it. It has not only to deal with rising terrorism, Pakistan’s proxy war in Kashmir but also the thriving insurgency in the North-east and the  terror unleashed by the Naxalites. Already they have set base in over 13 States. Fortunately, Singh does not shy away. At the swearing-in-ceremony he told me in an informal chat: “I have been turning things around and I will continue to do so.”

True, corruption may no longer be an issue in the urban areas. But the rural landscape is dotted with malfeasance and ineptitude. Manmohan would need whatever it takes to strengthen various checks and balances, strengthen Parliamentary committees for effective control over the Government, pass the long delayed Lokpal bill, get MPs to lay declarations of their assets on the floor of the House et al.

Finally, aware that mastery in the current game of compromise and accommodation alone can make the Government function effectively in the coalition milieu Manmohan Singh has shown little hesitation in shedding all pretence. Putting a premium on efficiency and performance he has virtually put his ministerial brood on notice: perform or perish. “Business as usual” will not do.

All agree that the Prime Minister has good intentions and has set good goals. But he needs to tread honestly and cautiously. Complacency is a strict no-no. Towards that end, he now offers the moon and stars to one and all. But he needs to remember, promises of bringing heaven on earth is an old habit with public men. But all these dissipate fast into political quicksand. Leaving in its wake only a grand illusion of stability. Raising a big query: Can the PM meet the challenges that confront India? Will he come out smelling of roses?  --- And, if so, for how long? ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

ROUND THE WORLD

New Delhi, 21 May 2009

Obama’s CTBT Quest

INDO-US CONFRONTATION ON CARDS?

By Hina Pandey

(School of International Studies, JNU)

The silver tongued US President Barrack Obama has certainly made some big promises. With an air of great optimism he has appeared to convince not only fellow Americans but the global community as well, that yes, he can certainly promise (to deliver).

In Prague on April 5^th, during his speech Obama made promises to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the US national security strategy. He reiterated his commitment to the immediate and aggressive pursuit of Senate’s ratification of the CTBT to be put into force, thus taking a step closer to non-proliferation efforts. He also assured to begin negotiations on Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty III (START) with Russia to make mutual cuts in warheads and reduction of deployments.

However, when it comes to issues like these, there emerges a clear divide between the real world and Obama's imagery, both standing in contradiction to each other. The real world consisting of the Permanent Five --the possessors of deadly nuclear weapons with other NWSS and there is Obama’s imagery, which has the absence of nuclear weapons as a perquisite for the sustenance of world peace.

Nuclear issues are indeed most controversial, largely because of the degree of destruction that is attached to them and this controversial nature has been further enhanced especially in this new age of terrorism. The earliest efforts to curb the spread of these weapons began with the initiation of the “Baruch Plan”, which remained an official foreign policy of the US till 1953 and was continued by President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace Programme”, that eventually created the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in  1957.

One can see a reflection of similar sentiments in the Obama speech as well when he said:  “Cold War has disappeared, but thousands of weapons have not, the threat of nuclear war has gone up and more and more nations have acquired these weapons technology”. The statement is indeed the resonation of Truman and Eisenhower’s non-proliferation efforts.

It has been more than five decades that the US and the international community has realized the need to strengthen or to at least maintain a controlled Non-Proliferation Regime, yet the illegal spread of this technology continues even today. The NPT that is signed, breached, withdrawn and ‘not’ ratified by various States continues to face challenges for its own effective functioning. On the other hand, there is non-NPT signatory country, such as India, which continues to maintain an impressive record in a way acting as a catalyst in strengthening the treaty.

Bearing this in mind the decision of a much-idealist President to send the CTBT for reconsideration to the Senate may have important consequences for India’s foreign policy. New Delhi has always made it clear in principle as well as in practice ever since its “laughing Buddha Programme” that it would not appreciate any capping of its nuclear capability, come what may! Despite the change in leadership, New Delhi maintained its nuclear option, as in when, Pokhran-II was completed, the then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee made known his decision to abide by a self-moratorium on further nuclear tests. Subsequent governments, as on earlier occasions have stuck to this decision. Not respecting it and any effort to unnecessarily corner New Delhi on the issue of nuclear test would be a serious mistake on the part of the Obama Administration.

Like Madeline Albright once said that the task of presidency is analogous to “redesigning the plane, while flying it”. It is clear that Washington has definite challenges ahead, in case it wants to get this task done, bearing in mind the presence of the huge Indian lobby that it may have to face. There is little doubt that the democratic administration led by Obama would articulate its own set of perceived challenges. It is also clear that would actually seek the ratification of CTBT. The question that we in India should be asking is: will there be a direct pressure on India to sign the CTBT? Will other members of nuclear club side with the Obama administration and demand Indian signature on CTBT?

Having said that, a risk involved in pressurizing India must not be overlooked, as its reaction would most possibly invite or demand an action from Pakistan. This is to say that Delhi would certainly resist going non-nuclear if Pakistan doesn’t provide any assurance. In that case influencing Pakistan would again become a strenuous task for Washington, as it is Pakistan has a lot to deliver.

Washington and New Delhi both share several similar concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons, horizontally as well as vertically. India’s concern regarding disarmament was echoed in the “Rajiv Gandhi Action Plan”, a commitment which was extended to the world in the UN General assembly Speech (1988). The late Rajiv Gandhi’s proposed NWFW- Nuclear Weapons Free World was ignored by the US media, and neither did Washington respond to it officially. Now exactly after two decades, the current President want’s to support the idea of a return to a nuclear weapons free world through CTBT.

Despite a degree of convergence on nuclear issues between Washington and Delhi, the CTBT question may once again create political tension. Would there be a repeat of 1998 sanctions if India refuses to be a member? What would ultimately become of the CTBT? Would this not be hypocrisy on Obama’s part when the US itself maintains a record of the highest nuclear arsenal in the world, having the ability to conduct computer simulation and sub-kiloton tests to actually ask India to be a signatory to any treaty like the CTBT?

There is another question that emerges with the evolving debate on proliferation, and here the strategist in the US must answer as to how the elimination or signing of the NPT actually translates into “sustenance of peace”,  as today it is widely acknowledged that the most grave threat comes more from terrorists and not from countries like India or Israel.

These are difficult questions to answer at this point in time, especially when signing the treaty is much awaited. Perhaps with time more questions would evolve and unfold themselves to new answers. ---INFA

 (Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 23 May 2009

New Government, New Hope

‘SING’ING ON CREST OF GOVERNANCE

By Poonam I Kaushish

New government, new beginning, new aspirations. The Sardar of Reform has come to power with a big mandate. Of hope and trust. Trust that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will provide baggage-free good governance. Hope that his Government will be honest and accountable. Belief that he will lead India on a path of growth. Will Singh remain King? And sing Main Hoon Na!  

The start has not been smooth. What with a recalcitrant DMK, playing party poopers. Its refusal to join Manmohan Cabinet, after failing to get ministerial berths and ministries of its choice, at least for now, exposed the chinks in the ‘united’ hum saath saath hain armour of the UPA. But it demonstrated a ‘rejuvenated’ Congress’s resolve to chart out a new alliance matrix by refusing to succumb to tantrums and blackmail.

What brought about this assertiveness? One, post it’s over 200-plus MPs, Congress strategists decided to redefine equations by refusing to put up with the unreasonable demands of alliance partners. A repeat of 2004 was a strict no-no. Recall, Karunanidhi flexed his muscles to extract meaty portfolios given the numerical vulnerability of the Congress.  This time around, as the pre-poll allies are fewer, it made plain that it was willing to be pushed to an extent and no further to keep its partners in good humour. At the same time it drew a lakshman rekha on meeting unreasonable demands.

Two, for the first time the Prime Minister exercised his right of being first among equals in his Cabinet, notwithstanding the fact that the Congress does not have the stand-alone numbers to govern. That he is no push-over was made plain by his choice of Ministers. Governance, for him, is not about re-arranging chairs but weeding out non-performers and rewarding competent colleagues. Faced with his new mood of assertiveness, the NCP and NC fell in line. Forgotten was Omar Abdullah’s diatribe that the Congress had failed to observe minimum courtesies.

True, it is not his prerogative to choose the ministers from within his allies but by building a premium around good and honest governance, none can fault Manmohan Singh from trying to keep controversial DMK leaders away from the Government. Specially, the likes T R Baalu and A Raja whose ministerial tenure in 2004 smacked of various scams and were widely castigated for their brazenly rent-seeking style of governance.

What to speak of turning his Council of Ministers into ménage de trios of paternal love. The DMK supremo Karunanidhi wants Cabinet berths for son Azhagiri, daughter Kanimozi (who have no previous administrative experience), grand-nephew Dayanidhi Maran, Baalu and Raja. Along with four Minister of State posts. Arguably, are ministerial berths to be dictated by blood-lines? 

In an attempt to buy peace with its Southern ally, the Congress has now offered three Cabinet and three Ministers of State posts instead of five and six respectively. Ultimately, the DMK has no option but to come around as its State Government’s survival depend on the Congress support. With the aam aadmi’s thumbs down to ram-shackled coalitions making unreasonable demands both Manmohan and Sonia have rightly sought to limit the DMK’s Cabinet quota proportionate to their seats in Lok Sabha. After all, if TMC Mamata has settled for just one Cabinet berth, how can DMK, with less Lok Sabha seats, ask for so many posts in the new Cabinet?

Further, if it surrenders to political blackmail now it would open the Pandora’s Box and embolden other allies like the NCP to ask for more. Reasoned a senior Congress leader, “What is the use of receiving a big mandate from the people if we have to continue putting up with tantrums.” Thus, a confident and reinvigorated Congress has decided to rebuff such attempts, by redrawing alliance matrix by building relationships based on trust and mutual affection, rather than bluff and bluster.

Three, the Manmohan and Sonia-Rahul troika view Verdict 2009 as a mandate to provide good, effective, accountable and honest governance. Asserted the Prime Minister, “I have to run a Government and I also have to worry about its effectiveness.” He definitely does not want a repeat of history when he was taunted by the Opposition for including tainted Ministers, dogged by bad publicity thanks to the antics of testy and recalcitrant allies such as PMK and LJP and being clubbed with Shibhu Soren as “fugitive” when he failed to show up in the Rajya Sabha. Recall, Soren went underground to avoid being arrested in a criminal case.

Four, Manmohan intends making his five-year term into a beacon for the future. He is correct when he asserts: “Our promise for the future will be judged by our performance in the present”. More than the present, he along with Rahul is playing for bigger political stakes in the future.

Towards that end they have crafted a new policy traversing a lonely path which divorces politics from the popularity stakes. Wherein success is viewed not as the number of seats won in the present but a long term policy of rejuvenating and strengthening the Party organization. Bringing true inner party democracy rooted in the ground rather than power flowing from the top. Said Rahul, “it would take over 10 years to rebuild the Party.”

Moreover, by rejecting a ministerial berth, Rahul has signaled that Manmohan Singh is the numero uno.  There will be no backseat driving.  He knows only to well that if he were to join the Cabinet he will become the ‘orbit’ of sycophant Congress ministerial colleagues.  Also, he has indicated his preference, the Party takes precedence over the Government. Plainly, a warning that Ministers should not ignore the workers who put them there.

At another level, what of the BJP? It needs to get its act together if it has to retain its top slot as a national party. Not only has it to grapple with a loss of seats but also vote share, even in States considered to be its strongholds. Besides, it has to learn from its mistaken belief that running an entire campaign based on negativism, devoid of policy and direction and resorting to replaying its high-pitched Hindutva card courtesy Varun Gandhi translates into votes. Instead it put the last nail in its coffin.

Compounding this was Advani’s distasteful personal diatribe against Manmohan Singh which boomeranged and showed an assertive PM giving back as good as he got. To redeem itself now it needs to urgently reinvent itself in order to regain credibility and behave as a responsible and effective Opposition Party.

Ditto the case with the Left in West Bengal. Afflicted by the Hubris syndrome it strove to overreach itself by forming a non-starter Third Front. Worse, ostrich like, it refused to see the writing on the wall in the people’s revolt in Nandigram and Singur and failed to read the masses mood for change offered by Mamata’s Trinamool. As it readies to face its toughest poll battle, the State Assembly elections due in 2011, it no longer can govern by strong arm tactics. It has two years to give up its arrogance and go in for a course correction if it intends retaining its Red bastion. A do or die battle.

In sum, Manmohan’s task is not enviable. The burden on him is enormous. Much is expected of him. Will he be able to deliver? His track record shows that he will. He did so in 1991 as India’s father of liberalization when he pulled the country out of its economic morass. And again in his quite unassuming and able way in 2004-09 when he provided stability to a rickety coalition leading to the Congress’s astounding electoral victory.

Make no mistake. Beneath the velvet gloves is an iron hand. Left to me, I would place my bet on him to deliver. But with a rider: Manmohan Singh should remember and abide by Victor Hugo’s famous saying: “No power can stop an idea whose time has come”. The time has come now. The clock is ticking, Prime Minister. Good governance, accountability and transparency, what gives? ---- INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)