Defence Notes

New Delhi, 8 September 2009

800 New Helicopters

ARMED FORCES GO SHOPPING

By Radhakrishna Rao

 Saddled with a fleet of ageing and obsolete helicopters that are both costly and difficult to maintain, all the three wings of the Defence Services are looking at inducting as many as 800 new hi-tech genre rotary wing aircraft capable of performing a wide range of tasks.

The ambitious plan of expanding and strengthening the helicopter fleet over the next few years is to be realized through a deft and imaginative combination of outright acquisition from the global aviation majors through competitive bids and a vigorous plan of action for the indigenous production of certain categories of choppers by the State-owned aeronautical major Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL).

The Navy which operates a diverse but far from efficient fleet of choppers including Seaking, Chetak, Dornier and Kamov-31, is keen on boosting its helicopter-based anti-submarine warfare and heavy lift operations capability. In particular, it is seeking to acquire a number of 10-tonne class helicopters capable of ferrying men and material and also of having the facility of getting refueled in mid-air. However, the Navy is not keen on acquiring the naval variant of home-grown 5.5-tonne class Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) Dhruv, as its current configuration is inadequate to meet the stringent requirements.

Recently, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved the acquisition of five more Russian origin Kamov-31 early warning helicopters at an estimated cost of Rs.9,600-million. These choppers would bolster the Navy’s long-range capability to detect air-borne and surface threats. It already has nine such copters. With an Eye airborne electronic warfare radar mounted beneath its fuselage, Kamov-31 can simultaneously track up to 40 air-borne and surface threats.   

On another front, India has sought bids from global helicopter majors for the acquisition of 197 light utility and observation helicopters for the use of the aviation wing of the Army and the Indian Air Force (IAF). These helicopters will be deployed for operations in high altitude areas such as Siachen and Kargil and would replace the ageing fleet of Cheetah and Chetak choppers.

In fact, an earlier tender to acquire these helicopters was cancelled last year after Eurocopter was close to bagging the order. According to the Defence Ministry, the cancellation of the tender was a sequel to the detection of “impropriety while carrying out the evaluation trials”.

Simultaneously, another 187 such choppers will be manufactured by HAL for induction by 2016-17. HAL has already submitted a proposal to the Defence Ministry for the indigenous design, development and production of three-tonne class light utility helicopter (LUH). The Ministry’s current view is that the immediate need of LUH could be met from acquiring 197 such choppers.

Thus, HAL is planning to take up the project in association with a helicopter major of global repute. Further, to complete the full-range of choppers, HAL has decided to design and manufacture a 10-tonne class multi-role helicopter and invited proposal from the international aviation companies for co-development.

The IAF, which  has now a fleet of around 300 choppers  including Chetaks and Cheetahs,  Soviet era Mi--26 heavy lift off  choppers, Mi-25/35 attack helicopters, has  issued RFP (Request for Proposal) for 22 combat and 15 heavy lift helicopters to the global helicopter majors. Incidentally, the ageing helicopters in service with IAF are often called during natural calamities but most have not been found fit for the task. And, the Soviet era Mi-range of helicopters in service are saddled with the problem of spares’ shortage.

This apart, the IAF has placed order for 10 Cheetal helicopters with the HAL of which four have already been delivered. Accordingly, the re-engineered Cheetals will increase the operational capability in high altitudes. In fact, the chopper created a sort of world record by landing at 23,200 ft pressure altitude at Sasar Kangri of Ladakh region in November 2004. Importantly, with its new TM-333-2M2 engine, the chopper has demonstrated an increased range, endurance and payload capability..

As a follow up to Dhruv and its weaponised version, the HAL has initiated work on the development of Light Combat Helicopter (LCH). The sanction for this project was granted based on the IAF’s requirements. The 5.5-tonne class LCH is expected to be inducted during 2011-13. The double engine, two-seater chopper will be armed with 20-mm turret twin barrel guns, cluster bombs, rocket pods and air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, other than being equipped with an anti-tank missile Nag.

Designed for anti-tank and anti-infantry roles, the LCH will also be capable of high altitude warfare since its operational ceiling is 16,000-18,000-ft. It will also incorporate stealth features in addition to carrying a crashworthy landing gear for better survivability. Further, it will feature a narrow fuselage, helmet mounted target system, electronics warfare equipment and electro optics system to bolster its attack capability.

As for the new weaponised version of Dhruv, equipped with high performance Shakti (ardiden) engine capable of generating 30% more thrust than the TM-333-2B2 engine used in the utility version  is likely to  complete its qualification trials by the end of 2009. It would serve as a gun ship in the Himalayan regions of India.

HAL, which has so far delivered 80 utility version of Dhruv to the Armed Forces, has on its hand, a standing order for the delivery of 200 choppers. But its production line can only churn out three-four pieces a month and with its present rate it would take years for HAL to clear its standing commitment. Even as HAL is planning to export Dhruv in a big way, growing demand for the chopper from the Forces and internal security agencies could force the aeronautical major to slow down its export drive. Incidentally, the 5.5-tonne class Dhruv, India’s first-ever fully home-grown chopper has helped HAL live down its image of being an enterprise focused on licensed production.

The production line of Dhruv commenced at HAL in during 2001-02 and based on the feed back, the performance of the helicopter has been improved substantially over the years. It incorporates a number of advanced features including integrated dynamic system, full authority digital electronic control, hingless main rotor and bearingless tail rotor.

HAL has already supplied five Dhruv to the Air Force of Ecuador as part of US$51-million order for seven choppers. The variant being supplied is of utility type and will be mainly used for hoist and rescue operations. Last year, HAL bagged a US$20-million order from Turkey for three ALH Dhurvs. In 2008, HAL had narrowly missed bagging order for the supply of 12 ALH Dhruv to Chile. It also sold two such choppers to Nepal and leased out one to Israel. However, HAL’s plan to sell Dhruv’s to neighbouring Myanmar is said to have come a copper following international pressure. Meanwhile, HAL is looking at Mauritius, UAE and African countries as potential customers for its flagship product. –INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 4 September 2009

Of Drought & Inflation

CAN THE NATION BE OPTIMISTC?

By Shivaji Sarkar

The nation should not be “over pessimistic” despite the drought, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told the Planning Commission’s first meeting after the new Government took over. But the Commission’s Deputy Chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia said almost the contrary: that the growth as recorded in the official documents of the first quarter is to gradually come down and pepper off in the last quarter.

Well, the Prime Minister is optimistic that since “our food stocks are very high” the consequences of drought could be managed. He obviously meant that the situation would not be too inflationary. However, only three days ago the Reserve Bank said the “spectre of inflation is expected to rear its head by the end of the current financial year, which could pose a major challenge”.

The apex bank explains that “deficient monsoon could affect the inflation outlook more than the growth prospects”. Further, easing the base-effect and possible strengthening of fuel and food prices would take inflation to high levels, which in turn would pose a threat to the process of economic revival.

The Prime Minister has the onerous task of keeping the nation’s morale high. Therefore, it is expected that his purpose was of presenting not so gloomy a picture. One only hopes that this nation is not following Queen Elizabeth II, who in July asked why nobody had predicted the great recession. She did not remember that dozens of economists and journalists had warned repeatedly that the world suffered from unsustainable asset bubbles, imbalances and debt.

In the case of India, we often try to ignore realities. Three days after the new trade policy was announced targeting $ 200 billion exports in 2010-11, the July exports fell by 28 per cent. Along with that came the news of a further fall in the US unemployment – an indication that the global economy is not doing well and the hope of growth in exports is more utopian.

Manmohan Singh expected that there would be a growth of 6.3 per cent as against what the RBI had repeatedly said “not more than 5.75 per cent”. The recent slowing down in the core sector industries comprising steel, cement, coal, electricity and oil to 1.8 per cent following a fall in production of steel products and petrol refinery, is a grim indicator that the nation might again slip off its growth target. The core sector accounts for close to 27 per cent of the total industrial production.

The electricity sector which continues to be a bottleneck registered a meager 3.3 per cent growth down from 4.5 per cent a year ago. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has expressed concern that electricity generation and capacity increase has not matched the growth in demand. In the previous two Plans, the addition was much less than anticipated. The Eleventh Plan is also not expected to bridge the gap. In stark contrast China adds far more capacity every year.    

Records reveal that the steel industry merely managed to edge upwards with a 1.2 per cent growth compared to 6 per cent growth in July last year. Only cement and coal segments registered growth, with the former by 10.6 per cent up from 5.5 per cent in July 2008 and the latter segment expanded by 9.7 per cent. But it is too early to say whether this is indicator of any revival.

The manufacturing sector is also not doing well. The index of manufactured products rose by a mere 0.1 per cent and manufactured food products by 0.7 per cent. This is an indication that people are lacking in purchasing capacity owing to job losses, high cost of living and continuous pressure of sharp rise in food prices. Principal economist of Crisil DK Joshi says this will bring the wholesale price index (WPI) into the positive zone, from the present negative, within a month.

Apparently, Manmohan Singh has based his projections and optimism on a positive global growth. In contrast, the RBI cautions that if global growth revives, demand for food items and petroleum products too could rise and result in higher inflation. In addition, private players are too playing havoc with the prices and there is a trend of hoarding, other than poaching on the farmers. To counter this, the Government has raised the minimum support price of agri-commodities recently and is mulling to raise it further.

However, the RBI warns that this would belie what Prime Minister is expecting. Instead, it would further stoke inflation. In such a situation, the call of Manmohan Singh for a public private partnership (PPP) in the social sector --- health, education and urban development is also wrought with risk. And he too is aware of it and has thus cautioned the Plan panel that any initiative must not weaken the Government’s commitment of “inclusiveness”.

Truly, it is unfortunate that the private sector has not matured over the decades and continues to be focused only on exploitative profits. The Government needs to look at this aspect and should through various industry and trade chambers start a dialogue to educate the private sector on becoming a partner in a positive manner. Most PPPs, including those on the highways, are extremely expensive propositions, have been adding to inflationary trends and affecting the growth propositions.

Surprisingly, the Prime Minister did not speak on the high Government borrowings, though only a few days back Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had said it would not have any impact on interest rates or inflation. Once again the RBI has contradicted this view and expects the interest rates to harden. It is circumspect on the Rs 40,000 crore stimulus package the Government had announced. “If stimulus is sustained longer, the imbalances left in the system could create market-induced pressures, which may work against recovery,” warns the Central bank.

Clearly, the Government is passing through the most difficult economic phase. Keeping the nation’s morale high is a challenge in itself. But high food stocks unless used properly would not bring the prices down. With the projected 20 per cent fall in kharif production and another likely fall in the rabi output, it is expected that the Government would have difficulty in building up the food buffer next year. Though nobody wants to paint a gloomy future, the trends are nowhere near being optimistic. The nation may not be pessimistic as the Prime Minister says, but it has little for being optimistic. --INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 5 September 2009 

Hatoyama Victory

TIME TO PUSH INDO-JAPAN TIES

By Parama Sinhapalit

School of International Studies, JNU

The 21st century seems to be ushering in many new international developments. First, it was the global financial crisis of 2008 that rocked the economy of the most powerful nation---the US, then the surprise win of the Congress party in India early 2009 and now the change of guard in Japan. All indicating the pace at which the world is transforming. The landslide victory of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) on August 30, 2009 was a result of a massive protest vote against a worn-out, clique-ridden Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) that ruled Japan for over 50 years except for 11 months in 1997, when a non-LDP coalition ruled the country. 

Yukio Hatoyama, the President and one of the founders of the DPJ in 1996, has taken over as the new Prime Minister of Japan. At 62, the new leader faces many challenges including deflation, an increasing public debt and unemployment which has touched a record high. While revival of the Japanese economy might be the focus of the new Government in power, Hatomaya and his team also realize the need for transforming Japan from within. He has promised to reverse the process of over-centralisation of the Japanese government by transferring more power and funds to local authorities, breaking the nexus between the bureaucracy and the political rulers and pay direct greater attention to the problems of rural Japan.

While planning to strengthen the country internally, the Prime Minister also has plans for Japan internationally. Wanting Japan to be closer to Asia, Hatoyama has in an op-ed piece in the New York Times entitled “A New Path for Asia” revealed his vision of Asia's future. He visualizes Japan’s close partnership with China as the American economic and military influence wanes. While believing that the power of the US is on the decline, he still attaches considerable importance to the US-Japan alliance that will “continue to be the cornerstone of Japanese diplomatic policy”.

While articulating Tokyo’s penchant to move closer to Asia, one point Hatoyama however, seems to have missed out is the need for Japan to continue its growing partnership with India. Surprisingly, the election manifesto for the election was almost quiet on the issue despite the relationship going strong during the past few years.

While India-Japan ties have relatively a young history, the two countries have moved close to one another in the last couple of years. Japan has been one of India’s major trade partners as well as a key source of development assistance. During the past few decades, India-Japan relations have undergone both quantitative and qualitative changes. Economics has been the main driver of bilateral ties with cross-border trade and investment increasing sharply. The partnership is no more lop-sided and has both New Delhi and Tokyo looking for opportunities in each other’s country.

One of the recent initiative to strengthen the India-Japan partnership has been provided by Daiichi Sankyo’s acquisition of Ranbaxy, one of India’s leading pharmaceutical companies. The acquisition, while obtaining greater access in India’s huge pharmaceutical market, also marks the beginning of a deeper qualitative involvement of Japanese firms in scientific capacity-building.  It paves the way for utilization of India’s scientific talent in advanced pharmaceutical research under Japanese supervision. More investments of similar nature will expand economic space for both countries by creating opportunities for utilizing their demographic and skill complementarities.

The India-Japan collaboration is seen in many other areas as well. Japan is playing a key role in establishing a new Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) and is also actively collaborating in developing an Indian Institute of Information Technology, Design and Manufacturing at Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh, one of India’s largest and relatively economically backward States. The upcoming institute can make a significant difference to development of the State’s human resources and prospects for future growth.

Japan’s penetration into India is indeed note-worthy. Another leading Japanese firm DoCoMo, has acquired 26 per cent equity in Tata Telecom, a major Indian telecommunication service provider. This provides DoCoMo a foothold in the world’s second largest mobile phone market after China with an estimated customer base of 100-110 million. Establishment of India’s first exclusive Industrial Park for Japanese firms in Rajasthan is another example of both countries attempting to harness India’s advantages as an investment location for mutual benefits. Japan’s Daikin Industries Ltd, along with five other companies, is involved. The project underscores New Delhi’s faith and confidence in Japanese enterprise and capabilities and the virtuous role that the latter can play in India’s industrial growth.

Likewise, Indian companies too have begun investing in Japan. This is part of a larger trend reflecting sharp acceleration in outward FDI from India. Outward FDI from India has increased from US$1.5 million in 2003-04 to US$17.4 million in 2007-08. Indian FDI inflows into Japan are mostly in IT and software.

While economics has been going strong between the two countries, India and Japan also appreciate each other’s geo-political significance in the Asian region while sharing common concerns. All these imperatives have been instrumental in elevating India-Japan relations to a new level of partnership based on shared interests and challenges. Both New Delhi and Tokyo are collaborating within the East Asia Summit (EAS), an effective forum for articulating Asia’s views and projecting its strategic interests. Due to its inclusivity and the potential to provide global risk diversification to members, there is a strong case for EAS continuing to function as a key forum for articulating Asia’s views to the rest of the world.

Japan has been actively supporting greater Asian economic integration as is evident from its proposing the ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia’ at the 13th Consultations between ASEAN Economic Ministers and the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (AEM-METI). This initiative, under the aegis of EAS, covers several key issues such as trade in goods and services, cross-border investment and intellectual property and aims to strengthen regional competitiveness by promoting growth of efficient production networks. India is also committed to this initiative launched by Japan.

The Joint Declaration for Security Cooperation entered into by the two countries in October 2008 marks a milestone in bilateral ties. Japan has similar security cooperation arrangements only with the US and Australia. India’s entry in Japan’s core group of allies underlines the critical significance it has acquired in Tokyo’s strategic perception of the Asia-Pacific. The declaration focuses on a variety of areas for cooperation which include joint military exercises, disaster management and counter-terrorism. In order to deepen security cooperation, New Delhi and Tokyo have also agreed on expanded collaboration between the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) in disaster management.

The list of cooperation between the two countries is thus endless. The ties have been strengthening. With new dynamics at play in the 21st century, it is quite possible that the relations between the two Asian players will continue to improve. However, till now there has been no signal from the new Hatoyama Government that moving closer to India is amongst its top priorities. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

SUNDAY SHORT STORY

New Delhi, 1 September 2009

LOVE IN TIMES OF GLOBAL WARMING

By Nelofar Currimboy

‘Dear Mum n Papa,

Since it’s clear that you are never going to let us marry, Saif and I have decided to end our lives together by drowning at Surajkund, Haryana. Please don’t try to find us. Love Nisha.’

After sealing the envelop, Nisha tiptoed to the living room and left it in a prominent place. Before walking out she stopped to check her make-up before the mirror. After all, the media would swoop down to cover the tragedy, and her face would be in every city paper. Dead or alive, she would hate to be seen looking any less than smashing.

She heard Saif revving up the engine of his Harley Davidson mobike and jumped onto the pillion seat, her long hair flying with the wind dramatically. “Nisha darling,” said Saif apologetically “you are choking my lungs. Can you loosen your grip please”? “How rude of you. Do you know what I feel at this moment, besides we will both be dead in a few minutes and you are worried about your lungs”, shot back Nisha. “Okay girl but I need to breath to ride this bike, so why don’t I sit behind and choke you and you try doing this.”

Nisha was looking upset but what’s a little tiff between lovers, she thought with a smile. The bike took the steep incline to the ancient Surajkund water reservoir and slowed down on the rugged steps. Holding hands they walked down the jagged steps. “I am keeping my eyes closed Saif,” whispered Nisha. “I want you to lead me till we are at the edge of the water.” Her feet were searching out every step while Saif was staring down. “Nisha", he screamed. “What”, she said opening her eyes. “There is no water at all.” They looked down at a pit of hot earth. “Oh no”! Now how do we drown,” she asked.     

“Well dear this was all your idea,” replied Saif. “Mine?” “Didn’t you say you wanted to die in a place that was rich in history,” he added. Nisha started sobbing. “I can’t go home and tell my parents that we’ve postponed our plans for tomorrow.” “Don’t worry baby, just trust me, and get on the bike.” Nisha climbed on meekly. “Where are we going now,” she asked. “About half an hour down this road is Badkal Lake, remember.” “Oh yes I do, that’s even better than Surajkund, that’s the place we went boating on our second date,” said Nisha excitedly. “You got it girl,” replied Saif.

But he hadn’t bargained for the long winding road with its steep inclines and dips, and that Nisha was prone to bouts of motion sickness. When he first heard a gurgling sound he thought it was his Harley Davidson protesting about the desi road, till he felt something wet on his shoulder and a huge glass of curdled milk dripped down the front of his shirt. “What’s this", he screamed stopping the bike on the muddy edge of a cliff.  "I am sick, can't you see .I wanted to die not be tortured before dying". "Trust me", said Saif trying to pacify Nisha. "Trust you, did you say trust you, you can’t find a drop of water for us to drown in, in this whole country and I should trust you,” she angrily replied.

He pulled off her Louis Vuitton scarf and wiped her face and clothes, then he took off his shirt and threw it to the side with the scarf. “Do you know what you just did?” “What,” said a confused Saif. “You just threw away my LV scarf. It cost me Rs 20,000 and besides it’s sacred.” “Come on girl stop getting hysterical, it would have sunk in the water in any case.” “Saif you don’t understand, that was a sacred way for it to go, that's how it deserved to go. It’s an LV.” “Get on,” said an irritated Saif cutting her LV commiserations short.

The last lap of the ride to Badkal Lake was in complete silence and as the mobike reached the edge of the bandh wall there was a heavy air between the two. The checkpost policeman let them pass as a romancing couple. ‘Can I have my last diet coke, Saif?” “Sure, and I will have my last Marlborough light,” he replied. They sat on the steps leading up to the reservoir and for a moment it seemed the plan was back in place and so was the mood. “Okay now girl are you ready?” “I am”, she whispered with a dramatic tone to her voice. “Then hold my hand tight as we go up the steps.” “I want to shut my eyes and chant,” said Nisha. She could hear him chanting the name of his God too, and she knew this was the perfect end to their love story.

"Nisha open your eyes,” he screamed pointing to the cracked dry and muddy expanse where once there was a water bed. “Oh my God,” she shouted, “what are you doing to my life, I mean my death. Is this some kind of a prank?” “No Nisha, no trust me, I had no idea that Badkal Lake was a dry pit now. I mean who would ever imagine.” Saif’s mind was racing for options. His shirtless chest freezing in the morning chill didn’t help matters either.

“I know just the place,” he remarked. “Sorry, this time I need to know the plan,” Nisha retorted. “Just 20 minutes down this road is the Dhauj Lake, remember in the tenth class we had gone on this trek in the Aravali Hills and sat on a beautiful river bed,” mumbled Saif tripping over his words. “Okay, scream”, said Nisha looking clearly exhausted. The ride to Dhauj was bumpy and the pit holes that appeared every few seconds left the Harley Davidson groaning. Finally they reached the Aravali Hills. Climbing up the two hundred steps holding hands, the lovers felt suitably tortured by the world.

“It was every bit worth it. This is the most amazing place to depart the world from,” said Nisha. She had barely finished her sentence when the sight of baked earth stung her eyes. “You idiot,” she screamed at Saif. “Look at that.” Saif looked down in horror at the dry arid waterbed with stray shrubs growing. “There,” he pointed out at what seemed like a mirage, ‘there seems to be some water there.” “It’s a puddle, it won’t even drown my heels,” yelled Nisha. “Look Nisha this is not my fault.” “Oh yes it is, you are the man, you are the one who takes care of everything,” she angrily asserted. “I had suggested the Yamuna, but you wanted a place with some history,” argued Saif bounding down the steps with Nisha following, her stilettos in her hands and tears of frustration rolling down her face.

A bunch of village boys welcomed them with claps, and then one of them took out a sling and hit the front tire of the Harley Davidson with a sharp stone. “You rascal, I’ll get you,” said Saif darting towards the kids. Almost on cue, a mule cart appeared. “You want a ride,” asked the man pulling the animal to a side. “Your fancy bike won’t get you anywhere now.” Saif looked on in frustration even as Nisha's voice had become a cacophonic sound of anger by now. A few boys were loading his bike on the cart. “Where to,” asked one of them. “‘Drop us to a petrol pump on the main road,” said Saif avoiding thinking of his next move.

Holding the Harley Davidson the two defeated lovers sat in the mule cart --- on a journey they could never have imagined. It was dusk by now and the sun was setting. Suddenly, the headlights of a Mercedes were shining in their eyes and waiving at the cart to stop. Out jumped Nisha’s parents, grandmother and sister. “Nisha darling, thank God,” they said hugging her. “We will be more than happy if you marry Saif,” they chorused. “What marry this nincompoop! Never,” replied Nisha. As her completely confused parents stared at her, a shirtless Saif looked on. ---- INFA

(The writer runs a cosmetics firm, is a poet and has written a book on her mother Shahnaz Husain. She has created marquee products like Shahnaz Herbal's Gold Gel, Pearl and Flower range.) 

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)