Round The States

New Delhi, 22 October 2009

Fight For Chief Ministership

CONGRESS WINS ASSEMBLY POLLS

By Insaf

What was widely expected in the Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh has come to pass, barring a couple of surprises. The Congress has won in all the three States. It is now confidently poised to form Governments in Maharashtra and Arunachal and, hopefully, even in Haryana, where it has failed to get a clear majority. Haryana’s Chief Minister B S Hooda, has not done as well as he was “hundred per cent” sure of doing. Additionally O P Chautala’s INLD has bagged 32 of the 90 seats as against 40 of the Congress. In fact, he is talking of forming the Government. The BJP has fared poorly, it is clearly down, if not wholly out. Raj Thackeray’s MNS once again crucially helped the Cong-NCP alliance. It played havoc with the Shiv Sena-BJP combine by cutting into its support base, as in 2004. The post-poll focus is now on the Chief Ministerships. Maharashtra has at least four claimants. Ultimately, the Congress High Command or, more specifically, Sonia Gandhi will decide.

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War Against Naxals 

Come November, the Naxalites will find the going tough, at least for starters in three States. The Centre, in consultation with the States, is all set to launch its armed operation by paramilitary forces against them. However, it also has two options for the rebels: if they call a halt to violence, it is willing to hold talks or they could opt for the revised surrender policies being offered by State governments. Time, however, is running out as the deployment of forces in six districts along the border of naxal-infested Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra and another tri-junction of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Orissa will be complete by next week. Other than the CRPF, which has been leading the fight against the Naxalites alongwith the State police, the BSF and ITBP are to be involved in these operations. While five battalions of the BSF and two from the ITBP have already reached ground zero in Chhattisgarh, the CRPF has been pulling out some men from Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East to reinforce its strength in the naxal-affected regions for this long-drawn battle.     

Meanwhile, some State Governments are busy revising their surrender policies to entice the rebels to give up arms, which so far was not very encouraging. For example, in Bihar which has 30 of its 38 districts affected by Naxal violence, the State government proposes to follow the Jharkhand pattern. It is expected to raise the maximum one-time financial aid at the point of surrender from Rs 2 lakh to Rs 2.5 lakhs. For laying down of arms, the Naxals shall be offered Rs 3 lakh instead of Rs 25,000. This apart, the Naxals could get other benefits such as bank loans, housing, insurance cover etc. Interestingly, these incentives are over and above the money provided by the Centre for the policies as part of its Security Related Expenditure scheme for the States affected by insurgencies. Nevertheless, one fact stands out. The Jharkhand model has brought limited success so far. Only 18 rebels surrendered between 2006 and February 2009.

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Bombshell In Himachal Cong

Himachal Pradesh is still reeling under the impact of the bombshell tossed by the Congress High Command. Shockingly, Sonia Gandhi and her advisers have denied Union Steel Minister and former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh’s wife the party ticket for the Assembly byelection from Rohru, due on November 7. This when former MP and ‘Rani Sahiba’ Pratibha Singh was the only name proposed at the block level and, importantly, recommended by the district Congress committee. Instead, 10 Janpath has given its blessings to the Chairman of the Block Samiti and estranged Virbhadra loyalist Manjit Singh, who had applied directly to the PCC chief! Indeed, the Singhs, who were already into campaigning and their supporters are shocked by this rebuff. Not only was the choice not made public at the block level, but the apparent reason for the denial appears absurd. On a recent visit, Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi had raised many eyebrows by urging that family rule was a bad trend for organizational growth and should be ended. Leading Virbhadra Singh’s loyalists to remark angrily: “Look who’s talking”.

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Nagaland Solution In Limbo

Nagaland continues to add to the Centre’s woes. Last week the Union Home Ministry was confident that it had worked out an ‘honorable and acceptable’ proposal to end the decade-old political conflict in the north-eastern State. The political package would offer greater autonomy by way of some more financial powers and additional control over socio-cultural issues. Instead, before it could even put it across the table, the militant outfit, Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (IM) has out rightly rejected any such package. Dubbing it as “another political gimmick,” the Council in a statement last week reiterated its three demands: carrying on unconditional talks, at the highest (Prime Minister’s) level and in a third neutral country. More importantly, it is adamant that there could be no compromise on its demand for Nagalim (Greater Nagaland) and the “unquestionable sovereign right of the Naga people.” Regrettably, the ball is virtually back in New Delhi’s court. 

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Gujjar Trouble In Rajasthan

Rajasthan is heading for big trouble. The Gujjar community has threatened to launch a state-wide agitation for its long-pending demand of being declared as a Scheduled Tribe and accorded reservation. A decision to this effect was taken on Friday last by the All-India Gujjar Sangharsh Samiti, following the Rajasthan High Court staying the five per cent quota given to it and the EBCs (Economically Backward Classes) by the previous Vasundhara Raje BJP Government. The Samiti has realized the Raje Government’s folly-- any quota given to the Gujjars as a special category was unconstitutional. Only a ST status would pass the legality test and that is what the Samiti insists the Government must do. Soon a Maha Panchayat will decide the course of action the Gujjars will take. Recall that last June the Gujjar agitation had lasted 27 days and played havoc with the State’s economy.

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Sunderbans, Yaks Threatened

Imagine no Sunderbans, in the delta of Ganga in West Bengal, and no yaks in Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Sikkim and Himachal. An absurd proposition one would say. But no, it could happen. The warning signals are all there. The ice in the Arctic and the Himalayas is melting, thanks to global warming. The water in the seas from colder regions moves to warmer areas like India, causing the sea to rise. As it is, several islands in Sunderbans have already gone under water because of these rising sea levels. Half more of these would go under by 2050, warn studies by Jadhavpur University. As for the yaks, the animals are no longer able to bear the rising temperature in altitudes that were “comfort zones for centuries”. They are being pushed up the Himalayas and scientists at the National Research Centre for Yaks fear that the time is not far when there will be no more comfort zones left for them. Where will the animals go after 30 to 40 years? Your guess is as good as mine! ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 24 October 2009

Congress Get’s Poll Math Right

BUT OFF BEAM IN GOOD GOVERANCE

By Poonam I Kaushish

United we stand, divided we fall. This maxim rang true as the Congress victory juggernaut catapulted it to power in Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh, hit a reconcilable numbers-crunch in Haryana and left the divided Opposition parties licking their wounds. Three chairs and “top dog” status for the Grand Dame of Politics!

Indeed the 3-0 sweep in the Assembly polls accentuate that happy days are here again for the Congress. One, they confirm the trend left behind by the Lok Sabha triumph was not one-off as also because they are against anti-incumbency in the States, the third consecutive in Maharashtra. Given the disarray in Opposition ranks, the TINA factor (there is no alternative) held sway. A vote not for the Congress's strengths but the voters' desire for stability. Two, in the short term it could herald a return to the pre 1996 era of single Party rule. The Congress has no challenger at the Centre thanks to a rudderless BJP in Parliament and outside while regional satraps are few and a divided lot. Thus, it is busy reviving its roots in States.

Three, the Congress would be on a much stronger wicket within the UPA. Wherein there may be no takers for tantrums by allies like Trinamool or even DMK. In Maharashtra it would be dealing with a weakened NCP given that post poll Sharad Pawar is in no position to dictate terms. Further, its allies are aware that the Congress is the only viable political option presently. Four, less elbow room for allies could translate into bold and out-of-the-box ideas on the policy front. The upcoming Parliament session could testify to the Congress’ near dominance on the national political stage.

However, at the same time the victory comes with riders. The win in Maharashtra was facilitated by a Saffron alliance devoid of a political plot and Raj Thackeray’s MNS playing Party pooper like the Lok Sabha poll only on a bigger scale. He managed to rally his pet vitriolic raison d’etre sons-of-the-soil theory mixed with brawny arm tactics. Underscoring that Marathi pride still continues to be an issue. True, the MNS didn’t emerge kingmaker as expected but it mauled Shiv Sena candidates in their three decades garh —Lalbaug-Parel-Dadar-Mahim area. Not only that. The MNS delivered a double whammy to the Sena in amchee Mumbai by coming second in the metropolis. Ensuring that he inherits uncle Bal Thackeray’s mantle.

In Haryana, the Congress failed to get a majority despite a three-way split of anti-Congress votes. Primarily, it shot itself in the foot due to over-confidence. Hoping to ride the wave during the Lok Sabha polls that saw the Party winning nine of the 10 seats, Hooda advanced the elections by six months, but the people played spoiler, stopping short of giving it a simple majority.

Holding ominous portents, it has driven home the need for better organization at the local level. The State Government was perceived as an “aamir aadmi’s regime” and many recent investments seen as crony projects.  Add to this, the neglect of non-Jat voters. The resurrection of Chautala shows the resilience of old-fashioned politics and should be sobering for those who feel traditional political tools — caste/community — have lost salience.

In all likely-hood the Congress could return to its old style of relying on the Gandhi family to propel it to victory in the States. Like Andhra post-YSR and now Haryana the Party is busy mulling over whether it is wise to put all its eggs in one basket. Given the incumbent's unilateralism and complete decimation of other centres of power and domination of ticket distribution. Recall, one of the reasons for Congress’ declining graph in the States over the years was the slow disappearance of powerful regional chieftains.

As for the BJP the less said the better. An anemic, completely leaderless and directionless BJP has shown that there is little engagement between the Party and the people in vast tracts. Worse, the leadership’s reluctance to repair organisational dysfunctions is likely to become more stark triggering off inner-party tensions. There is no gainsaying that tasting defeats in electoral battles seems to have become its signature tune.

In Maharashtra, the Party’s ticket-selection procedure along with its delusions of becoming the sole beneficiary of anti-Government sentiments with ally SS will now find its forward movement even more difficult. In Haryana, its flip-flop on the question of alliance with Chautala’s INLD followed by its unilaterally and abrupt termination of its poll pact exposes the continuing drift and whimsical manner in which BJP President Rajnath Singh has run the Party for the last four years.

Not only that. With its second generation leaders engaged in a bitter tussle to wrest control of the Party, decision-making has been outsourced to the RSS. Wherein it is perceived that the Hindutva brigade’s internal affairs is now being micro-managed by Nagpur. This has not gone down well with the ‘independent’ rank and file who are not willing to kow-tow the RSS line.

Besides, the danger for the BJP is that if this drift is allowed to continue, it runs the risk of conceding defeat in Jharkhand, where Assembly polls are slated less than two months. Specially against the backdrop that as the recent poll results have shown Hindutva has limited appeal among the electorate. Today, it stands at the crossroads. By postponing a stock-taking will not stop the wreckage from piling up.

Worse, if it doesn’t set its house in order immediately it might end up losing the Opposition space to regional satraps who have no stake at the national level. Needless to say, it would need a Herculean vision and capability to lift the Party from its morass. Time for it to craft a positive agenda to present itself as an alternative.

All in all, the verdict in favour of the Congress in the three States will help further stabilise the UPA Government in New Delhi .An opportunity for the Centre to get down to serious work, take some difficult decisions and deliver on its promises. Leaving Manmohan Singh bereft of excuses for not doing a good job. As the Grand Dame of Politics basks in the glory of its victories, it should not get over-confident. Victory is a heartless and fickle mistress which comes with a heavy price tag: the responsibility to govern. Here today gone tomorrow! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 16 October 2009

Bully in China Shop

INDIA TIME TO REMOVE BLINKERS

By Poonam I Kaushish

Trust-me-trust-me-not. This question continues to plague Sino-Indian ties The mistrust goes beyond the old enmity syndrome. Compounded by the ever-changing dynamics of living in a unipolar world --- strategically, politically and economically. Which speaks volumes for Sino-Indian ties. Of two Asian neighbours who have yet to thaw the chill in their Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai ism!

Importantly, 56 years down the line, Asia’s oldest civilisations don’t seem capable of maintaining a civil conversation. Last month, Beijing stunned New Delhi by unleashing a relentless war of words through its Foreign Office and Government-run newspapers . Portraying “India’s hegemony to harm relations, its new missile able to attack Harbin,” and Indians as “narrow-minded, intolerable of criticism having impetuous superpower aspirations”.

It all started with PM Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh which China claims as its own territory. Expressing "strong dissatisfaction" it warned India “not to trigger disturbance in the disputed region to facilitate healthy relations." In a tit-for-tat, New Delhi told Beijing to cease activities in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), namely the upgrade of the Karakoram highway that links Pakistan and China and the Neelam-Jhelum hydro-electric project. And voiced its opposition to China’s construction of a dam on the Brahmaputra river, given that the river is an economic resource for the development of the local communities in both countries.

True, we are used to indo-China tu-tu-mein-mein but what is different this time is the resounding harshness.  Questionably, what is Beijing’s game plan? Is it to push the envelope with India? Or to boost “all-weather friend” Islamabad’s sagging morale? Considering that in geo-strategic terms the Chinese threat perception looms large on the horizon. Raising a moot point: Are we back to square one? Of China’ again viewing India as it did in the chaotic pre-1978 era? A time when there was no love lost between the world’s biggest autocracy and the globe’s largest democracy.

Significantly, the strong Chinese reaction to Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal underscores the hollowness of bilateral ties and the complexity of the border dispute that is the bedrock of Sino-Indian ties. Needless to say, this would take long and a grueling dialogue to settle. Notably, it seems Beijing is now pursuing an aggressive anti-India foreign policy. Of a diplomatic strategy crafted on Machiavellian lines. Wherein, it seeks to deluge us on multiple fronts: Tawang, Aksai Chin, Sikkim and now J&K. The Chinese Embassy in New Delhi is issuing visas on a separate sheet of paper to those born and residing in J&K. Thereby supporting Pakistan’s contention that J&K is “disputed” territory.

Add to this, each issue is deliberately left unresolved to be exploited to Beijing’s advantage later. Sadly India has failed to unravel China's surreptitious tactics to formulate a forceful response. According to the Army Chief, Chinese intrusions went up from 140 in 2007 to 270 last year and there were 2,285 instances of 'aggressive border patrolling' by Chinese forces. The key point is that Beijing has opened pressure points against India across the Himalayas, with border incidents occurring in all the four sectors -- Ladakh, Uttarakhand-Himachal, Sikkim and Arunachal.

Over the years Beijing has shifted the goalpost on the border issue. From raising the ante on high-profile visits to  Arunachal, accusing India of building bunkers on the Sikkim borders and Indian troops transgressing into the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) as also building structures along it and the Indo-Bhutan border. No matter that they destroyed bunkers on the India-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction in 2007 and demolished some Indian forward posts and bunkers near Doka La on the Bhutan-Sikkim-Tibet tri-junction and a Buddha statue near Tawang a few months back.

More. The wily and inscrutable Chinese have not budged an inch from their stated positions on two critical issues, which form the core of the fragile Sino-Indian ties since the 1962 war.  New Delhi failed to get Beijing to either present maps of their version of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) which have been promised since 2001 and the fortification of its borders on the Tibet plateau. Significantly, while the two sides have exchanged maps on the LAC in the Central sector, Beijing continues to drag its feet on the Western sector. Why? It is busy building a railway link to Lhasa which will improve its capacity in case of a conflict with India.

China may have ceased to depict Sikkim as an independent country in its maps, but the important point, often overlooked, is that it has yet to expressly acknowledge that Sikkim is part of India. Beijing has declined to affirm that Sikkim is part of the Republic of India. It continues to arm Pakistan with sophisticated and deadly missiles, has a blue water base in Coco Island in the Indian Ocean, a direct highway to Myanmar, strategic nuclear missiles stationed in Tibet pointing towards India and Chinese arms are freely available in Bangladesh. To its latest dosti with Nepal. Thereby, casting a security net around us.

The two countries share a knotty, long-standing border dispute. While New Delhi claims that China is illegally occupying 43,180 sq km of Jammu and Kashmir, including 5,180 sq km illegally ceded to Beijing by Islamabad, China accuses India of possessing some 90,000 sq km of its territory, mostly in Arunachal Pradesh.

With both the Asian tigers fighting for the same space globally, economically and politically in Asia, it defies logic that they can ever strike friendship, invoke trust and ever become strategic partners.. Beijing’s growing military strengths and political stability is way ahead of India. It is no secret that China has been listed as the world’s second largest military power. In India’s perception this is alarming.

Undoubtedly, New Delhi must be both alert and assertive. True trade might bond the two, but political ties are as brittle porcelain. A first step to a settlement of any dispute is to build mutual respect. Two, bring clarity on the LAC or at least be appreciative of the “no go” areas so that provocative or unfriendly actions can be eschewed. Exchanging maps showing each other’s military positions, without prejudice to rival territorial claims, is a preliminary step to first define, then delineate and finally demarcate a frontline.

In strategic terms, we needed to pin down Beijing on this. Especially against the backdrop of historic blunders by Nehru and Vajpayee. The former for acknowledging China’s “sovereignty” over Tibet when, actually, it historically exercised only “suzerainty”. The latter for formally conceding Tibet as a part of the Republic of China. Forgetting that reciprocity is fundamental to diplomacy.

Manmohan Singh, must remember that there is no place for emotions in real politik. Nehru allowed himself to be overwhelmed by his friendly feelings and read a lot more into Chinese words than was merited, as he admitted in Parliament in September 1959. He confessed: “Seven years ago, I saw no reason to discuss the question of frontiers with the Chinese because, foolishly if you like, I thought there was nothing to discuss.”

New Delhi cannot afford to take any chances with what constitutes a threat to India’s security. No doubt both have a stake in peace and stability. But it is not a one way street. It cannot be achieved at the cost of one’s self interest. New Delhi needs to be careful and circumspect against Beijing’s wily moves and its capacity to take India for a ride again and again.

Both are quite some distance from becoming friends. They have still a long way to travel. New Delhi needs to remove its blinkers. Else, we will be back to square one: Being out-manoeuvered by the inscrutable Chinese. Rhetoric, loud claims notwithstanding! As Woodrow Wilson once said: “Only a peace among equals can last”. And Theodore Roosevelt’s injunction: “Talk softly but carry a big stick!” --- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)

India-China Ties

TIME TO REMOVE BLINKERS

It is going to be a slow, long haul before everything is hunky dory between India and China. That is the upshot of President Narayanan’s six-day visit to the Dragon country last week. The Chinese have in fact, once again shown that they can spit fire on India and get away with it!

True, the right noises have been made alongwith a large dollop of molly coddling of this ceremonial visit to commemorate the 50^th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. Adjectives so typical of such visits have been freely bandied about. The talks were “very warm and friendly,” the personal chemistry was “excellent,” the “atmospherics couldn’t be better” for taking a “strategic perspective of bilateral relations which would scale heights and look far ahead for constructive partnership and cooperation.” (sic). Towards that end, both agreed to set up an Eminent Peoples Group (EPG) to enhance bilateral ties. China added for good measure that though it has boundary disputes with some other nations too, it is only with India that its relations are strained.

Narayanan’s talks with President Ziang Zemin lasting over two hours (effectively about one hour after allowing for interpretation) included the strains in Indo-Pak ties and New Delhi’s concern about the menace of international terrorism, especially the militancy unleashed by Islamabad. Zemin concurred with Narayanan in principle on international terrorism and even called for greater cooperation. Importantly, however, he refused to make any specific reference to Pakistan. The stock reply was: work towards improving bilateral ties. Narayanan also used this opportunity to lobby for India’s bid for a permanent seat in the expanded UN Security Council. Reminding Beijing that India had hooted for Red China’s entry into the UN and its Security Council and, lately into the WTO. True to form, Beijing played poker.

The Presidential visit was not without its delicious irony. Fifty years down the line, has Beijing changed the way it looks at New Delhi! No. Has the decades-old mistrust, anchored in a volatile past and a present conditioned by India’s nuclear tests of May 1998, evaporated? Hasn’t Beijing been one of the stringent critics of Pokhran-II, viewing it as India’s grand “hegemonistic” and “expansionist” design? Isn’t it a fact that in geo-strategic terms the Chinese threat perception looms large on the horizon? Yes: Isn’t it a fact that Beijing minces no words about its all-weather friendship with Islamabad? Yes again.

Hasn’t China armed Pakistan with sophisticated and deadly missiles and other weapons system? True. Hasn’t it set up a blue water base in Coco Island in the Indian Ocean? Can we simply ignore its continuous inroads, including a direct highway to Myanmar? Or, for that matter, what about the “silk route” linking China with Pakistan? What about the stationing of strategic nuclear missiles in Tibet, pointing towards India? How are Chinese arms freely available in Bangladesh? Hasn’t Beijing cast a security net around us?

Tragically, if one had hoped that Narayanan’s visit would provide us clues, if not answers, to these uneasy questions which are the bed-rock of Sino-Indian ties, it failed. In fact, New Delhi lost a perfect opportunity to use an old China hand (Narayanan served as India’s Ambassador to Beijing in 1974) to take the dragon head-on and disapate the distrust once and for all. Preferring to be cocooned in its blinkered pre-1962 Hindi-Chini bhais. Nehru made that mistake in 1962 and India paid a heavy price in the India-China war that ensued. But successive governments failed to learn from history. They continued to believe that that magic wand of appeasement would suffice.

Rajiv Gandhi used the wand in 1988. His tryst with the Great Wall of China was touted as a breakthrough. Subsequently, there were a flurry of visits on both sides. Chinese premier Li Peng came to India in December 1991, followed by a return visit by the then President, R. Venkatraman in 1992. (China exploded its N-bomb, the day Venkataraman arrived in Beijing.) Narasimha Rao added “pragmatic and economic” to diplomatese. The Treaty of Peace and Tranquility on the LAC put the issue on the back burner. A Joint Working Group (JWG) and confidence Building Measures (CBM0 were set up to iron out all the creases. Both countries strove to further economic cooperation.

Beijing couldn’t have asked for a better deal. It merrily continued arming traditional friend Islamabad and made no bones. But as Kargil proved, once again, we were living in a self-created euphoria. Beijing was privy to all the preparations made by Islamabad, even as Prime Minister Vajpayee traversed the Lahore peace road. General Musharaff spelt out his war strategy to his officers from a Beijing hotel room. Surprisingly, New Delhi didn’t even make an effort to find out the Chinese involvement. It rested content with merely having scooped the Musharraff’s tell-al tapes.

Beijing couldn’t have asked for a better deal. It merrily continued arming traditional friend Islamabad and made no bones. But as Kargil proved, once again, we were living in a self-created euphoria. Beijing was privy to all the preparations made by Islamabad, even as Prime Minister Vajpayee traversed the Lahore peace road. General Musharraf spelt out his war strategy to his officers from a Beijing hotel room. Surprisingly, New Delhi didn’t even make an effort to find out the Chinese involvement. It rested content with merely having scooped the Musharraf’s tel-all tapes.

Worse, when India’s Defence Minister tried to cry a halt to this appeasement policy and called China Enemy No.1, a horrified Foreign Office rushed to placate Beijing’s ruffled feathers. The Foreign Minister left no stone unrutned to allay Beijing that New Delhi did not consider China a threat. If New Delhi was trying to ape the US in dealing with China, it fell flat. India is not the world’s super cop, who can take on another nation and hope succeed. It’s all very well for Clinton to play footsie with Beijing and grant it a most favoured nation status even as the Pentagon goes about diabolically leaking reports about Beijing’s continued arming of Pakistan to its teeth.

Beijing, on the other hand, suffers from no such inhibitions. It has made it unequivocally clear that it will not sacrifice its all-weather friendship with Islamabad to improve and develop Sino-Indian ties. A Chinese official commenting on the talks Narayanan had with Chinese leaders on the tense Indo-Pak ties asserted: “China and Pakistan enjoy traditional friendship and Chinese policy is to further consolidate and develop its relations with Islamabad. The development and improvement of Sino-Indian relations will not have any adverse impact on the friendly relations and cooperation between China and Pakistan and vice versa”.

Beijing also went full steam ahead to obliquely accuse New Delhi of colluding with the Dalai Lama to split Tibet. The Dalai clique and some foreign forces have always tried to use the 14-year old Karamapa Lama to achieve their own goals. We are strongly oppoed to anybody using the Karamapa to try to split China.” New Delhi’s reply” A lame mumbo jumbo of Karampa is merely being allowed to stay in India.

Beijing continues to sidestep the sensitive boundary issue. Post-1962 China occupied vast Indian territories. It still claims 30,000 sq km in the Western sector and does not recognize the McMahon Line. While New Delhi asserts that 90,000 sq km in the eastern sector and 2,000 sqm km in the middle sector are part of India. Despite the innumerable meetings post the Peace and Tranquility Pact of 1993, we have failed to draw the LAC. While we continue to harp on “a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable settlement”, Beijing suffers from no such illusions. Boht Li Peng, Chairman of the National People’s Congress and Li Ruihuan gave priority to improvement of atmospherics as a prelude to resolving the issue. Clearly, Beijing is in no hurry; it will suit its timing whenever it chooses to!

Evidently, New Delhi is so caught up in its Pak-centric policy that it fails to look at the larger picture. Pakistan may be a threat in the short term but its China India needs to worry about in the long term. We continue to display reactive tendencies rather than evolve a proactive policy. A policy to deal with the emerging China-Pakistan-US axis. At another level, Beijing continues to apply two yardsticks when it comes to dealing with Tibet and Kashmir. While Tibet is viewed as an “internal problem”, Kashmir is described as a “disputed territory” which can be resolved bilaterally between India and Pakistan.

Besides, it defies logic that nations fighting for the same space in the Asian continent can ever strike friendship and invoke trust. Both India and China are immersed in radical economic reforms and are competing to capture the global market. China’s sway over South East Asia stands undisputed. Its growing economic clout, military strengths and political stability is way ahead of India, which would like recognition as a major player. It is no secret that China has been listed as the world’s second largest military power. In India’s perception this is alarming.

What next? More than anything else, China and India need to build mutual respect when a sea-change is sweeping over international relations. New Delhi cannot afford to take any chances with what constitutes a threat to India’s security. No doubt both have a stake in peace and stability. But it is not a one way street. It cannot be achieved at the cost of ones self interest. New Delhi needs to be careful and circumspect before it embraces Beijing. Both are quite some distance from becoming friends. They have still a long way to travel. New Delhi needs to remove its blinkers. As Woodrow Wilson once said: “Only a peace among equals can last”.