Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 11 November 2009

World Eyes India

KEY TO GLOBAL RECOVERY

By Shivaji Sarkar

India has emerged as one of the most resilient economies. Whether it would be able to lead the world or not has been rocking the discussions at India Economic Summit. There are some positives and some negatives in the process.

The world is looking up to India for more than one reason. Despite its close trade, business and to a large extent financial – rupee-rouble alliance, the country did not succumb to the pressures created by the fall of the Soviet Union. In 1997-98, it withstood the pressures of the South-East Asian crisis with equal élan. The 2008 Lehman Brother scandal-led global recession did not hit it gravely.

The economy of the country may not be as large as that of the US or many European countries, but what surprises the international experts is its capacity to insulate against odds that hit and often devastate major economies such as those of the Soviet Union or the US.

India’s mixed  economy – government-owned socialist ideology dictated public sector and capitalist ideology based private sector – has emerged as the greatest strength. If one dithers even a bit, the other comes to the rescue of the system. The government is not actively involved in the day-to-day functioning of industries or business but it acts as an effective benign intervener or regulator.

The World Economic Forum associate director Michele Petochi on his approach to Global Redesign Initiative says, “The challenge is to have a compelling approach to complex problems”. This is where India is expected to give cue to the world’s complex economic system.

It has also emerged as a country that generates credible statistics unlike that of China. In the latest edition of the London-based Legatum Institute’s Prosperity Index, India is beating China. The Index processing data for 104 countries puts India at the 45^th rank and China at 75^th rank. Last year, India was a lowly 70^th and China 54^th. The index is now broad-based to include how citizens in a country feel about personal freedom, institutional maturity and mutual trust. The parameter for India is increasing.

So would India be able to come up again with the same kind of resilience in the latest IMF-predicted mother of all meltdowns in emerging markets, a crash that would make the 2008 one look like a pigmy?

In such a situation Prime Minister’s announcement to withdraw stimulus package next year would be a help or hindrance also needs to be debated. But if the Reserve Bank of India is to be believed, the earlier the package is withdrawn it would be wise and good news for the economy. Some economists say that autonomous institutions like the RBI have helped the country take the right decisions and create the necessary resilience. If banks did not collapse in the wake of the Lehman scandal, the credit goes to the RBI and its allied organizations like SEBI, NABARD, and NHB.

Apparently, there is synchronization in politics and economics. It is not always that the government listens to the RBI, which decides on financial and economic considerations. The government acts on broader parameters taking the people’s aspirations into account. This has pushed India below China in the Eurasia Group compiled Global Political Index. The index gives credit to tough political decisions, which a monolithic China can and India cannot.

But this alone is not the impediment. India has not been found to be very competitive. It has been placed 49^th out of 133 countries in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index 2009-10. The country lags behind in infrastructure, health, primary education and galloping inflation and fiscal situation prevents the government from making the much needed investment. Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia in his presentation has mentioned infrastructure as the most important constraint.

The index says that bureaucracy, over-regulation and corruption still affect the functioning of Indian markets. And by global standards, the diffusion of information and communication technologies remains very low. Union Minister for Roads and Highways Kamal Nath accepted it in a different way saying, “We had our decade of information technology, now let’s have our decade of infrastructure”. The lag is admitted and nobody opposed the index.

The economic recovery is positive with occasional industrial and services sector indices improving as it happened in figures of August, the government tries to show. But the overall trend has yet to mark the recovery as the quarterly results of 2000 companies reveals. It is a pointer that shows that demand growth is still a few quarters away and the current growth only reflects the impact of government’s stimulus packages. The sectors that were direct beneficiaries of the fiscal stimulus  -- automobiles, metals and tyres –are witnessing a volume growth whereas others continue to lag. Overall, there is no sign of a demand growth that can put the country back on growth trajectory firmly.

Net sales of most companies declined in the September analysis and are termed as the slowest quarter the corporate in this country has witnessed in the past several years. The agriculture and allied industries sector too has fallen back. The fall in agriculture production is to lead to a negative contribution of 1.5 per cent to GDP growth. The external sector is also not contributing to the growth. The exports continue to drop to by 13.8 per cent in September this year over the drop of 34.2 per cent registered in April – 48 per cent total fall.

According to the RBI, the inflation, which is to peak in March 2010 to 6.5 per cent, might further aggravate demand growth issues and may make industrial products expensive. The strengthening rupee against the dollar sends mixed signals – positive for importers and negative for exporters. 

Still hopes revolve around India. Rajat Nag, economist at the Asian Development Bank; Kalpana Morparia, chief executive officer of JP Morgan India; Raghuram Rajan, Professor, University of Chicago; Shumeet Banerji, CEO, Booz and Co and Lars H Thunnel, CEO of International Finance Corporation exuded hope on India’s long-term prospects. The underlining issue is ‘if only India corrects many of the impediments, including food security’.

The hopes also veer round Asian consumers to create the next robust recovery. Management guru CK Prahlad feels that India has the potential given the manpower of 200 million young educated people, 500 million skilled workers and the ability to generate over 10 per cent of the world trade in next 15 years. Indeed, there is hope. Reality may be different but the economy –not growth – is always fuelled by hopes. India is at least able to generate that. --INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 12 November 2009

CPM, SP Routed

BIG TRIUMPH FOR UPA & BSP

By Insaf

Seven States across the country have given the latest mandate through by-elections favouring the Congress and its ally, the Trinamool Congress yet again, with the BSP adding greatly to the surprise. While the Left has been humiliated in West Bengal and Kerala, as never before, the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh has lost face through an incredible drubbing on its home turf. Indeed, results of the 31 Assembly and one Lok Sabha byelections are carrying forward a strong message: people want a change. Mamata’s TMC winning all the seven of the 11 seats it contested in Bengal is signal enough for the CPM that only a miracle can help it retain its red bastion after the next assembly poll. Likewise, the Congress wresting all three seats in Kerala is also a clear pointer that the party is well on its way to snatching power from the Left next poll.

In Uttar Pradesh, SP Chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, seen till recently as a formidable force, has got a hard knock, with the Muslims ditching “Maulana Mulayam” and largely swinging in favour of the Congress. His candidate for the Ferozabad Lok Sabha seat, none other than his own daughter-in-law lost by a huge margin to the Congress’ Raj Babbar. Mulayam lost even in his pocket boroughs of Etawah and Baratna; remember he was elected to the State Assembly from Baratana, but resigned on election in the Lok Sabha. Worse, to add insult to injury, his bête noire Mayawati’s BSP has made a forceful comeback after its poor showing in the recent Lok Sabha. Her party won nine of the 11 seats, proving the time has not yet come to write her off.    

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Hooda Under Watch

Haryana and Karnataka have thrown up intriguing political developments. The Chief Ministers of the two States have been put under watch by their respective high commands. While Bhupinder Singh Hooda may have had his say in the formation of his ministry by keeping his main critics out, his glee has been short lived. Delhi has constituted a coordination committee to manage the affairs between the party and the Government and, as such, virtually monitor Hooda’s performance. The panel is, no doubt, headed by AICC General Secretary Prithviraj Chavan. Nevertheless, it is co-chaired by Hooda-baiter Birendra Singh, who lost in the poll, and includes two other rivals. All the seven Independent MLAs (six of them first timers) have been rewarded with ministerships and posts of parliamentary secretaries for helping Hooda muster a simple majority. Importantly, not a single of the 10 Congress berths have gone to any of his detractors. That Hooda has managed to get five of the six Haryana Janhit Congress MLAs to join the Congress. A feather in his cap, which should help.  

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Yeddyruppa Gets Mixed Reprieve

Likewise in Karnataka. Chief Minister B S Yeddyruppa has successfully weathered the fortnight-long storm raised by the dissident Reddy brothers and other rebel MLAs’ and saved his kursi. But the BJP central leadership is not taking any chance. It too has set up a coordination committee to oversee the “reconciliation process” and ensure that peace lasts. This follows the Reddy brothers, Janardhan and Karunaka, giving BJP leader L K Advani a “birthday gift” on Saturday last in Delhi. They backed down from their demand for a change in the State’s leadership and removal of six Ministers after Delhi refused to oblige. However, Yeddyruppa had to yield to some extent. The Bellary district officials have been transferred and his “favorite” minister and special assistant removed. How long the truce will last is anybody’s guess. Money now asserts aggressively in India’s increasingly feudal politics!

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Ugly Start In Maharashtra

Maharashtra, finally got a Government last Saturday after a fortnight of bitter wrangling between the Congress and the NCP over the number of ministerial berths and portfolios. While the ruling alliance has overcome the hurdle of meeting the November 3 deadline of government formation or else risk Governor’s rule, it has been an unsavoury start. Not only has it brought to the fore the one-upmanship tussle between the two old partners but, more importantly, that Ashok Chavan’s government must rein in Raj Thackeray’s MNS. On Monday last the Assembly got off to a violently shameful start after four MNS MLAs slapped and manhandled Samajwadi legislator Abu Asim Azmi in the House for taking oath in Hindi and not in Marathi as per the MNS diktat. While the MNS MLAs have been punished with a severe suspension of four years, Mumbai witnessed violent skirmishes between the MNS-SP supporters. Worse may follow. Will the new government show much-needed spine and finally take on Raj Thackeray?            

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MNS Version in Madhya Pradesh?

Enough should normally be enough. But look who was seen following in Raj Thackeray’s footsteps. Incredibly enough, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, Shivraj Singh Chauhan! Last week he sent shock waves with his reported utterance that his Government would not tolerate industries employing Biharis and that private firms must train and give jobs to the locals! Expectedly, the BJP’s alliance partner in Bihar, JD (U) was up in arms. Describing the utterances as “unconstitutional and objectionable”, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar shot off a letter saying “every Indian has the fundamental right to seek employment anywhere in the country… If Bihar refuses to consume Madhya Pradesh’s products, won’t the industries in your State be hit…” RJD chief Lalu Prasad too hit out saying the BJP “will lose whatever little support base it has in Bihar”. Warning enough for Chauhan to wisely retract the next day by declaring: “Madhya Pradesh is open to everybody. Anyone can come from the other States and work here.”  Mercifully, he did not foolishly stick out like Raj.  

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Dalai Visits Tawang

Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh was all decked up this past week as if Loshar, the Tibetan New Year, had come before time. Hundreds of monks thronged the district dressed in their traditional attire with flowers, khadas (white scarves) and lamps to welcome His Holiness the Dalai Lama on Sunday last. He had come to Tawang for the first time 50 years ago while fleeing from the Chinese. Though the long-awaited visit was termed as “not political, but religious and spiritual,” the Buddhist leader did make a subtle point on the Chinese claims on Tawang, which many may have missed. The PLA occupied Tawang during the 1962 war, he said. “But the Chinese government declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew its forces. At that time it was different leadership. Now the leadership has different views. This is something which I really don’t know. I am a little bit surprised..,” he added. Time for the Government to pick up the cue.

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Towards Solution Of J&K

Encouraging signs of a solution to the Kashmir imbroglio are slowly but surely emerging. Both the State national parties and the separatists seem to be thinking along similar lines. Participating in a seminar in Delhi, People’ Democratic Party’s Mehbooba Mufti candidly stated that “differences between the mainstream political parties and the separatists had blurred and there seemed a fair amount of consensus on the Kashmir issue.” On its part, the ruling National Conference has clarified that the party “is willing to work with the opposition PDP, the Hurriyat Conference and the separatists groups to evolve a common solution.” Fortunately, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, chairman of the moderate faction of the Hurriyat Conference, on Friday last also expressed the conglomerate’s “readiness for meaningful talks with the Centre.” He said “participation of India, Islamabad, Muzaffarabad (capital of Pak Occupied Kashmir) and the people of Kashmir was imperative for a solution.” Guess, it’s time for the Centre to come out with a concrete and lucid plan. --INFA

 (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Sunday Reading

New Delhi, 9 November 2009

Rising Divorce Cases

EROSION OF INDIAN FAMILY

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

It is a well-known fact that over the years the concept of the family has changed. Nowadays, the husband, wife and children constitute the family, which was not the case two decades back. Worse, even this family has become unsustainable and reports of marital discord have increased over the years. The underlying forces of change have been giving a new meaning to the causes of disharmony.

It is not that conflict, for example, due to incompatible personalities did not exist earlier. But the fact is that it has become more vibrant and open. Factors such as incompatibility of personalities have existed in the past but what is new is that the tolerance threshold has become fragile. Moreover, tension coupled with egos of individuals has accentuated the personality clash, sometimes resulting in serious discords. The clash of personalities has resulted in families breaking up and couples going in for divorce or mutual separation.      

The self dependence of women and their awareness about rights have given rise to a new situation. Those who are employed or are financially dependent find it difficult to tolerate the traditional dominance of the male member and are in a position to take care of themselves without having to fall back on their parents, as in the past.  All these factors have led to an increase in the divorce rate or separation primarily in the cities and urban centres.  

According to a study by a Mumbai-based legal activist, the family courts witnessed 2055 couples filing for divorce in 1995 in the city with the number going up to 3400 in 2004. Presently the number may be not less than 5000. Similarly, in the sight of the matrimonial district courts of Delhi, an average of 25 divorce petitions were filed every day in 2004. In Kolkata, the number has gone up from 1633 in 1966 to around 2400 in 2003 and may well be over 4000 presently. It would be pertinent here to mention that because of the increasing number of young couples resorting to divorce, six more family courts have come up in Delhi since the late 90s to deal with a whopping 9000 cases of matrimonial disputes.   

Analyzing the various causes of such disputes, it is generally believed that the three most important factors are: personality related behaviours/tendencies, including deficiencies – sexual or otherwise; unfulfilled material/monetary gains from, incompatibility, and lastly a superiority complex. Cases of separate living or divorce are more pronounced where the female member is assertive and employed.

There have been reports of the husband suspecting his wife for alleged close or even sexual relations with a colleague. While in some cases the allegations are true, there are many instances where the allegations are baseless. Similarly, a working wife would not tolerate her husband returning late at night and having any sort of intimacy with any of his colleague. The clash of personalities in such types of cases is very frequent and normally friends or relatives mediate to settle the problems, keeping in view the future of children that the couple may be having.

Husbands normally want to dominate their wives and would not tolerate their having intimacy with any male friend. While these problems are more pronounced in the metros and amongst the upper middle class or the upper echelons of society, the nature of the crisis differs among the lower middle class and the economically weaker sections, where alcoholism and gambling is a major factor.

In cases, the couple is issueless, the end result is divorce. A woman cannot be divorced because she is infertile, as per law, as there are alternative methods of procreation as well as adoption available to the couple. However, in Muslim Personal Law, a wife’s barrenness is a major ground for divorce if a husband wishes it to be so. Similarly, Islam also allows a woman to divorce her husband if male infertility can be proven.

Reports of female private tutors having sexual relations with the student’s father are well known. On the other hand, women or girls, who manage the family as both the husband and wife are employed, have been reported to have consensual sex with the male member. Many families do not like to keep young girls because the wife suspects the loose character of her husband.  

With modernization of society, it is quite apparent that tolerance and acceptability in the human individual would gradually decrease. Moreover, attraction towards worldly objects would create greater problems in man-woman relationship. With more and more women getting employed – whether in corporate houses or in the unorganized sector – they would tend to become more assertive in the family, more so if their income is on the same levels as that of her husband. This would create more tension and eventually lead to marital discord and may end up in divorce or separation.

One has to accept the fact that just because two individuals have married, their thinking, mindsets and behavioural patterns cannot be expected to be similar, more so if they are educated. It naturally takes time to know and understand each other. The understanding, which will eventually result in compatibility can develop only gradually and thus, both have to accommodate the viewpoint and thinking of the other partner till then.

The essence of marriage is the ‘understanding’ of each other’s compulsions, which if lacking between couples, could spell trouble in form of increase in family disputes and eventually lead to divorce. In the coming year, there is a growing fear that the institution of the marriage may, end up in ‘live-together’ relationships, where separation would become much easier and not entail any legal hiccups. There was a time when sex and procreation was the sole aim of marriage, but now this is possible even without formal tie-ups.     

Though counseling centres have mushroomed around cities in particular and psychologists have been making efforts to bring about rapprochement, the results are not very satisfactory. Arrogance and lack of understanding are obviously the prime reasons. However, women’s organizations say that more understanding has to be shown by the male member and his (as also his family’s) domination in all matters has to end as with changing times assertion of rights of the opposite sex is quite natural.             

Indeed, it is difficult to project the future existence of the nuclear family, but the sociological problems need to be thoroughly examined. If in a family, the tradition of love and affection yields to arrogance, suspicion and jealousy, it would have adverse affect in the child’s growth and thinking process. Worse, it would jeopardize social values and relationships.--INFA    

           (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 14 November 2009

Koda’s Millions, Manu’s Parole

WHAT IS THE BIG DEAL, YAAR

By Poonam I Kaushish

Phew? It has been a busy season keeping track of the garam-garam-teekha-teekha horrifying tamashas of the poweratti. Wherein our netas have not only cleverly perfected the art of self-deception but scaled new heights of corruption, rule by law and capture of power by pelf. After all darlings, it has everything to do with the power of politics and the politics of power!

Nothing illustrates this better than the political nautanki and stench of money in four States. In Jharkhand Madhu Koda is under the CBI scanner for amassing over Rs 4000 crores in all of two years as Chief Minister. In Karnataka, we stood witness to the BJP Chief Minister Yedurappa’s unholy surrender before the mine-rich Reddy brothers. In Maharashtra the delayed swearing-in of the Congress-NCP Ministers thanks to a tussle over which Party should control the lucrative purse-strings of Home, PWD and Power with a total budget of over Rs 60,000 crore is testimony of money seeking to determine who would rules the State. And the postponed Cabinet expansion in Haryana which hefty trade-offs written all over it.

More, that our laws are far removed the paper they are written on. Nowhere is this better reflected than in the ease with which Manu Sharma, son of senior Haryana Congress leader Vinod Sharma managed to get parole for two months within a few years of being convicted of murdering the model Jessica Lal in 1999 for refusing to serve drinks. Worse, that the way parole was granted made a mockery of justice.

Take Koda, who found himself as CM despite being an independent MLA minted money by trading his signature for issuing mining licenses. How many in poor asli Bharat have even heard of Dubai, Mauritius and Liberia, in which Koda stashed away millions of US dollars. True  like his elk before him, Koda is innocent until he is proven guilty and law will take its own course. So confident is he that he will come up trumps that he has nominated his wife to fight the poll. Once again underscoring that politics is the last refuge of scoundrels!

Significantly, if Koda made his millions after coming to politics, the Reddy brothers in Karnataka used their monies to direct politics. They sought a change in the State's leadership on the grounds that their business interests were not being furthered under Yeddurappa. Not only that. They wanted the entire Bellary administration revamped and their projects cleared fast. So strong was the force of the mining magnates money power that Yeddurappa and the BJP buckled under. A weeping CM went on TV had to say he would change his ways! A horrific moment in media history.

Coming to the Jesical Lal saga of how the mighty get away with even murder. It has now been established that rules were bent when Manu Sharma, who is serving a life sentence for the murder of Jessica was given parole on three grounds: To participate in the religious rites of his late grandmother, attend to his ‘ailing mother’ and tend to the family business. Never mind, that his granny died a year ago, his ‘ailing mother’ was seen heartily addressing a press conference on the State’s women’s cricket team  and his business interests being well-attended to. Compounding this, he was spotted at two  Delhi night-clubs.

Shockingly, while the Delhi police turned down Manu’s plea for parole, the Delhi Government cleared his request in unseemly haste based on the Chandigarh police report. That too, after the Supreme Court had rejected Manu’s petition for bail on similar grounds. Further, Tihar Jail inmates have filed a petition with the Delhi High Court, alleging that parole is being given only to the influential and seeking transparency in the process. This year, out of 132 applications for parole from prisoners in Tihar, only 11 were approved. Despite a Court directive that parole applications be processed quickly it takes more than 8-10 months to decide most cases. Manu’s was done in days. Needless to say, Congress ka haath khaas criminal ke saath hai!

What’s new? Aren’t we accustomed to an immoral, corrupt, criminal and unaccountable polity who could stoop to anything for paisa and gaddi. Wherein scams no longer shocks, worry anyone or causes mass protests. Don’t we know that there is something rotten in the State of Denmark. With unscrupulous manipulators emerging as the new rulers --- of politico-criminals, feudal lords and power dons. Shrugged off as a price one has to pay for democracy

What troubles one is the new dimension to this age-old malaise. That it does not strike any chord among our leaders who have reduced graft to a farcical political pantomime. Most distressing is that there is no longer any sense of outrage or shame even when caught red handed. Corruption today is naked, unashamed, and brazen. Nowadays, they conveniently wash their hands off by calling corruption a “systemic failure.” Or cursorily dismiss it as one of the ‘unlisted’ perks of their jobs. Are they kidding? No, in plain English, they are damn serious.

 Tragically, the downslide has been rapid. With every passing year and election, the barometer of corruption and immorality has steadily risen. Worse, our netagan neither want to change or be accountable. Not even to God. Transparency is a far cry. Accustomed  as there are to being a law unto themselves. The tragedy is that the private face of our netas is ugly. It wins hands down over their public mask. One hand washes the other.

The proud founders of Power &Money India Limited ---- dream merchants of power and the money that goes with it.  Liberally interspersed with malice, selfishness, greed for money, back-stabbing and coarse language. The most enterprising and lucrative industry in India today. A lethal dhanda which has ensnared a captive people.

Look at the benefits. One, money power greatly adds to their political clout. Two, parties put up the moneyed to strengthen their own hands. This works on the premise --- that you scratch my back and I yours. Three, money-power comes in handy to settle scores with opponents and use them for partisan political ends. So far so good. But when governance and power demand at least outward projections of piety, morality, goodness et al they don their public mukhota and drone endlessly about eradicating this scourge. All talk, no action. Remember, politics is all about sounding good.  

One can go on and on about hedonism in the year gone by. Of scams which have been reduced to one-day cricketing wonders. And argue that the rules of the game have got changed recklessly without a thought to the future and a premium put on criminality and immorality. But the moot point is: Will profligacy be allowed to become the bedrock of our Parliamentary democracy? Basically, is it good for our democracy to have such people represent the voters? When those who are supposed to lead become saboteurs, it is time to call a spade a spade. Above all, we need politicians who are men of conscience, integrity and credibility. Not comrades in crime.

In sum, the aam aadmi is damn sick of political corruption and want accountability, honesty and transparency. Else, he will be justified in concluding that all talk of eradicating corruption by out netagan is nothing more than shameless hypocrisy and a Himalayan humbug! Is he asking for too much?---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)