Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 21 December 2009

Prices, Poverty & Growth

STOP JUGGLERY OF FIGURES

By Shivaji Sarkar

Reality and projections are foxing the nation. Almost 20 per cent price rise and the growing numbers of the poor are the reality. But when it comes to growth projections nobody is sure whether there is reality in these or these are mere officialese. One can only hope it is not the latter.  

The October figures lead to a claim of 10.3 per cent surge in the industrial production and GDP growth at 7.9 per cent. Basic projections on the low growth parameters of October 2008 -- 4.3 per cent and a comparison with that of October 2009 and the claims of high growth possibilities certainly do not project the actual facts.

Else, the Government would not have grappled with the poverty figures. Growth in this country is not linked to betterment of living conditions of the people at large. Instead, it has been observed that social and financial discrimination increases. Despite the supposed fast-paced pre-2008 growth at around 7 to 8 per cent, it is surprising that the number of poor have not come down. Of course there are different figures by different committees and departments.

This apart, the Government is also unsure whether the growing food prices are adding to the numbers or not? In November alone inflation jumped three-fold from 1.34 per cent in October to 4.78 per cent as WPI. Shockingly, food prices have risen to nearly 7 per cent – from 13.68 per cent on October 31 to 19.95 per cent on December 5. Logically it would marginalize many more and push them below the poverty line. This is what four different figures for poverty estimation seem to suggest. \

Higher poverty ratio has its effect on the Government’s kitty as well. It may swell expenditure on poverty alleviation and subsidy-related issues by over Rs 15,000 crore. The Planning Commission in 2004-05 estimated that 28.3 per cent of the population was below the poverty line. The Government still projects this as the figure of poor persons. There is a dichotomy. It does not take into account the rise in population. The figures have to vary accordingly.

Importantly, three official committees have rejected these figures. The SD Tendulkar committee set up by the Planning Commission has stated that even in 2004-05 there were 41.8 per cent people below the poverty line. Officially there were 38 per cent poor in 1990. The NC Saxena committee set up the Ministry of Rural Development estimated, on the same parameters of per capita calorie intake of the Planning Commission that a poor person requires at least Rs 700 a month to survive.

The committee estimates 50 per cent of the people are below the poverty line. It has also taken into account low-weight children and anaemic women into account for the purpose of its calculation. This means almost 55 crore persons are living in absolute poverty. The Economic Survey of 2008-09 puts the figure at 60.5 per cent on the basis of subsisting on a wage below Rs 20 a day as per National Statistical Organisation Survey. The average works out to Rs 600 a month.

It is important to note that the Budget process has started and is to be presented almost two months later. The Government has to accept one or the other figure for deciding allocations. The closest to the present Government estimates are the Tendulkar committee figures. But these are also 13 per cent higher than the accepted official figures.

Clearly, the figures would be definitely more if the high food prices are taken into account. Incomes have not increased. There were more people who had been out of jobs and even those who are in corporate jobs have seen erosion in wages as most of them have been denied a raise since about two years.

According to the Tendulkar committee, there would be 30 per cent more poor in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, UP, Rajasthan, MP and even West Bengal. This means that on PDS alone the Government would have to spend Rs 10,000 to 12,000 crore. Expenditure would also increase on schemes such as NREGS, Indira Awas Yojana, Swarna Jayanti Employment Scheme and similar other schemes.

If the rising prices are taken into account, it would further swell the Government expenditure, which it is trying to do with larger borrowings. Presently almost 7 per cent is the estimated fiscal deficit. It is likely to swell further. This has a cascading effect on expenses as also on actual growth prospects. Is the country getting into a vortex?

Regrettably, the Government has not been able to contain the prices. The Union Agriculture and Commerce Ministers, Sharad Pawar and Kamal Nath respectively, are giving statements that are only fuelling up food grain and sugar prices. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has also warned of further rise in prices. The only dissenting voice is that of Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who says he is concerned about this and is taking requisite steps. His concern appears genuine. But, he has to show results in the Budget and this seems difficult.

If the number of poor and price rise, the Government may do projections but it would be away from reality. It also raises the question about the intention of bringing down the prices. So far, nobody has yet explained why butter has become scarce in the market. The only answer has come from the multi-national retailer Walmart, which admitted hoarding butter stocks after acquiring it from Anand in Gujarat. One needs to look at the meeting of Walmart Chairman S Walton with Manmohan Singh on November 4.  

This above is a grim signal and points to the linkages of price rise and entry of the MNCs and big corporate in the retail market. Somehow nobody raids their warehouses, whereas godowns of the small wholesalers have been searched under the provisions of the Essential Commodities Act.

Indeed, the nation and its parliamentarians need to speak against the entry of big business into the retail commodity and vegetable markets. There is no scrutiny of the officials and others promoting entry of this sector. They lure the Government with artificial growth projections. The Government instead has to look at actual growth of the people. The US and the West are suffering the ills of monopolization of transnational retailers. There is time to secure India from their ill effects.

The Opposition and the Government need to sit together to study the menace. Finances benefit only a few but growth requires a vision and not statistical jugglery. The West and now even Dubai is suffering from financial projections, created in the books. India has survived some of the recent financial crisis but if the present trend continues it may not be able to do so for long.  ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Sunday Reading

New Delhi, 9 November 2009

Rising Divorce Cases

EROSION OF INDIAN FAMILY

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

It is a well-known fact that over the years the concept of the family has changed. Nowadays, the husband, wife and children constitute the family, which was not the case two decades back. Worse, even this family has become unsustainable and reports of marital discord have increased over the years. The underlying forces of change have been giving a new meaning to the causes of disharmony.

It is not that conflict, for example, due to incompatible personalities did not exist earlier. But the fact is that it has become more vibrant and open. Factors such as incompatibility of personalities have existed in the past but what is new is that the tolerance threshold has become fragile. Moreover, tension coupled with egos of individuals has accentuated the personality clash, sometimes resulting in serious discords. The clash of personalities has resulted in families breaking up and couples going in for divorce or mutual separation. 

The self dependence of women and their awareness about rights have given rise to a new situation. Those who are employed or are financially dependent find it difficult to tolerate the traditional dominance of the male member and are in a position to take care of themselves without having to fall back on their parents, as in the past.  All these factors have led to an increase in the divorce rate or separation primarily in the cities and urban centres.  

According to a study by a Mumbai-based legal activist, the family courts witnessed 2055 couples filing for divorce in 1995 in the city with the number going up to 3400 in 2004. Presently the number may be not less than 5000. Similarly, in the sight of the matrimonial district courts of Delhi, an average of 25 divorce petitions were filed every day in 2004. In Kolkata, the number has gone up from 1633 in 1966 to around 2400 in 2003 and may well be over 4000 presently. It would be pertinent here to mention that because of the increasing number of young couples resorting to divorce, six more family courts have come up in Delhi since the late 90s to deal with a whopping 9000 cases of matrimonial disputes.   

Analyzing the various causes of such disputes, it is generally believed that the three most important factors are: personality related behaviours/tendencies, including deficiencies – sexual or otherwise; unfulfilled material/monetary gains from, incompatibility, and lastly a superiority complex. Cases of separate living or divorce are more pronounced where the female member is assertive and employed.

There have been reports of the husband suspecting his wife for alleged close or even sexual relations with a colleague. While in some cases the allegations are true, there are many instances where the allegations are baseless. Similarly, a working wife would not tolerate her husband returning late at night and having any sort of intimacy with any of his colleague. The clash of personalities in such types of cases is very frequent and normally friends or relatives mediate to settle the problems, keeping in view the future of children that the couple may be having.

Husbands normally want to dominate their wives and would not tolerate their having intimacy with any male friend. While these problems are more pronounced in the metros and amongst the upper middle class or the upper echelons of society, the nature of the crisis differs among the lower middle class and the economically weaker sections, where alcoholism and gambling is a major factor.

In cases, the couple is issueless, the end result is divorce. A woman cannot be divorced because she is infertile, as per law, as there are alternative methods of procreation as well as adoption available to the couple. However, in Muslim Personal Law, a wife’s barrenness is a major ground for divorce if a husband wishes it to be so. Similarly, Islam also allows a woman to divorce her husband if male infertility can be proven.

Reports of female private tutors having sexual relations with the student’s father are well known. On the other hand, women or girls, who manage the family as both the husband and wife are employed, have been reported to have consensual sex with the male member. Many families do not like to keep young girls because the wife suspects the loose character of her husband.  

With modernization of society, it is quite apparent that tolerance and acceptability in the human individual would gradually decrease. Moreover, attraction towards worldly objects would create greater problems in man-woman relationship. With more and more women getting employed – whether in corporate houses or in the unorganized sector – they would tend to become more assertive in the family, more so if their income is on the same levels as that of her husband. This would create more tension and eventually lead to marital discord and may end up in divorce or separation.

One has to accept the fact that just because two individuals have married, their thinking, mindsets and behavioural patterns cannot be expected to be similar, more so if they are educated. It naturally takes time to know and understand each other. The understanding, which will eventually result in compatibility can develop only gradually and thus, both have to accommodate the viewpoint and thinking of the other partner till then.

The essence of marriage is the ‘understanding’ of each other’s compulsions, which if lacking between couples, could spell trouble in form of increase in family disputes and eventually lead to divorce. In the coming year, there is a growing fear that the institution of the marriage may, end up in ‘live-together’ relationships, where separation would become much easier and not entail any legal hiccups. There was a time when sex and procreation was the sole aim of marriage, but now this is possible even without formal tie-ups.     

Though counseling centres have mushroomed around cities in particular and psychologists have been making efforts to bring about rapprochement, the results are not very satisfactory. Arrogance and lack of understanding are obviously the prime reasons. However, women’s organizations say that more understanding has to be shown by the male member and his (as also his family’s) domination in all matters has to end as with changing times assertion of rights of the opposite sex is quite natural.             
Indeed, it is difficult to project the future existence of the nuclear family, but the sociological problems need to be thoroughly examined. If in a family, the tradition of love and affection yields to arrogance, suspicion and jealousy, it would have adverse affect in the child’s growth and thinking process. Worse, it would jeopardize social values and relationships.--INFA    

           (Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

POLITICAL DIARY

New Delhi, 19 December 2009.

Belan Vs Ballot
SWEETY, HERE’S TO WOMEN POWER
By Poonam I Kaushish

Phew. Women are finally all set to get their rightful place in the electoral sun. Post President Pratibha Patil, all-powerful UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi and Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar, it is the turn of the aam Femme Fatale to unleash their female prowess in the power corridors of New Delhi and various State Capitals. The verdict is out: More Power to Women!

Finally, after more than 12 years and 12 agonizing months the fair sex is all set to rub “female power shoulders” given the thumbs up by Parliament’s Standing Committee on Personnel, Public Grievances, Law and Justice to the Government to pass the Constitution (108th Amendment) Bill, 2008 (Women’s Reservation Bill) reserving one-third seats of the present strength of the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies for women, “without wasting further time” in both Houses of Parliament last Thursday. 

Sadly, like in the past, the report’s ‘femme fatale’ statement was tabled amidst protest from the male votaries known for their animus against reservation. Specially MPs belonging to the regional parties. Notwithstanding,  the Samajwadi  which submitted its dissenting note, leaders of all other parties, including RJD might have approved its provisions on paper but vocally opposed it. 

What is it about this Bill that inflames the Right Honourables to lose their head?  Why is this final hurdle so hard to cross? Is it just a pretense, a concession to humour a pocketful of educated women with the Bill, which is meaningless to the large majority? For who is the Bill meant? Will the poor and deprived community women get a chance?

Clearly, the ding-dong battle said it all. Blame it on our male-centric mindset. Followers of God Adonis, they hate the idea of reducing themselves to a situation wherein behind every successful woman stands a man. Right from Adam and Eve, to the Sati Pratha, the time when Raja Ram Mohan Roy initiated the process of unshackling women from male bondage, there has been stringent resistance at every level.

Even now the support for the Committee’s report is half-hearted, but politically correct to do so. After all, in the cut-throat business of politics of appeasement, 50% of the electorate is crucial. The torch bearers of the anti-women brigade is led by our “Made in India” trio of  Laloo, Mulayam and Paswan who are plugging for an Other Backward Communities (OBCs) quota within the quota.  No matter, that their track record of women representation within the existing SC/ST quotas is zilch.

Besides, there are several spoilsports to put a spoke in the wheel. In fact, other than the "OBC block" they are confident that the proposal for rotation of seats reserved for women, would stall the Bill. Sitting male MPs fear not only losing their ‘well-nurtured constituencies but also would be discouraged from nursing them if they cannot contest again. Thus, they support the legislation in public, certain that it would never become law. Only doffing their hat to the cause of women’s empowerment than in actually seeing the law through.

In fact, those opposed to the Bill aver that it would strengthen the upper caste and elite rule and promote family politics in the country. The men of the said segment would ‘remote control’ their women to use the political power. Hogwash. Remember, no quota has ever seen a homogenous representation. But even if the argument were justified, are we to believe that Indian women would like to be represented by the Mulayam’s and Laloo’s than by their urban sisters?

Shockingly, even as all talk about more power to woman, a reality check bares some unpleasant home-truths. Women account for less than 10% of both Houses of Parliament. The current Lok Sabha boasts of a record 59 women MPs, the highest since Independence.  The next closest was in the 13th Lok Sabha with 49 women MPs, barely 9.02 % of the total seats. In 2004 the number was 45, only 8.29%, 12th Lok Sabha (1998) 43 women, 11th (1996) 40 women and 8th (1984) 42 women. The lowest number of women was in 1977 when only 19 women (3.5%) reached the Lok Sabha.

The less said the better of women candidates. There were 556 women of a total of 8,070 candidates in the 2009 polls, 355 in 2004, 599 in 1996 and 326 women aspirants in 1991. Before 1980 it was below 100 before 1980. Also, India’s record for women in Parliament is among the worst in the world. A position of 105 among 135 countries.

Not only Parliament, but gender bias plagues male-dominated States all over India. Take Haryana. The State has thrown up only four MPs in the past 30 years. Of these four, three got a ticket on the basis of their family legacy. In 1984, there were only 10 women compared to 190 men for the 10 Lok Sabha seats from in the State and in 2004 8 women contestants against 152 men. Clearly, exposing every Party’s pseudo-serious intent for women empowerment. 

What is the reason for such poor women representation? Is it attitudinal inclination, the fair sex’s abhorrence for the rough and tumble of politics, lack of opportunities or purely male dominance? All this and more. If the 60s ushered in an era of free sex, burning the bra typified the emancipated 70s, the 80s measured equality with right to abortion and the 90s replaced rights and equality with empowerment.

True, the status of women has evolved over the centuries. Every generation and decade has tried to move one step closer towards eradication of gender discrimination. But as a woman activist asserted, “Women are slaves to men. To cook, feed, mother and warm their beds”. And this persistence of gender inequality manifests from the low female-male ration of 0.93, one of the lowest in the world. The preference for boys in fertility decision and the neglect and death of a girl child, gender gaps in literacy, restrictive property rights etc. lead the deficit of women in a male-dominated society.

Arguably, it is precisely the gender distinction that results in lack of women participation in politics, governance and economic activity. The Bill on reservation in legislatures will only help bring women into the political mainstream and give them tangible political and economic power in the context of the emerging paradigm, assert the feminists.

Undisputedly, there is a paucity of strong women in politics with Party bosses often reluctant to trust them with handling the rowdy business of winning elections. Add to this a neglect of women issues in most elected bodies. The moot point is: Will this Bill correct the centuries-old imbalances and stigma against women? Will increased participation of women in the political process lead to less female infanticide, fewer dowry deaths, bride burning and trampling of female aspirations.

Importantly, no amount of legislation has ended gender discrimination. Stringent laws against sex discrimination have not led to any decrease in crimes against women. Often, the culprits go scot-free or, get- off with light punishment. If we want to end inequalities and injustice we must recognize that inequalities exist, tackle the disease and not merely the symptoms superficially.

In sum, empowerment has to come through educating women about their rights, family planning, mental acceptance that both males and females are on equal footing and legislation.  Watch out for the danger that gender politics can lead to a ferocious brand of political Puritanism. So far jobs, posts and seats in legislatures have always served as “apples of discord.” We must beware of this. One hopes this Bill will not end up as an exercise in competitive, reckless populism at its worst. As Pratibha Patil and Sonia Gandhi, have shown Femme Fatale is the way to go! ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

Sunday Reading

New Delhi, 9 December 2009

Helping Environment

INITIATE LOCAL INNOVATION

By Suraj Saraf

While world statesmen are busy holding global parleys to face threats to humanity being posed by climate change resulting in global warming, it would be pertinent to mention what India’s President,  Pratibha Patil has strongly advocated i.e the need to adopt innovative approach to tackle the minatory situation at the grass-root level.

“World attention is focused on the Copenhagen (climate change) conference. I think our grassroots local innovation can be useful not only for national problems but also for world problems and answer for our second Green Revolution and climate change,” she said while addressing the recent Fifth National Grassroots Innovation Awards in the country’s capital, New Delhi.

She underlined that it was not necessary that high-tech facilities were required for an innovation. “It is a fallacy to think that innovation is a high-end activity that takes place only in sophisticated laboratories. Innovation is a wide-ranging term that could mean technological, a fresh way of management or a different way of doing the same task but which would result in better performance,” emphasized President Patil.

Further, she maintained that innovation could be the result of accumulation of collective knowledge of a civilization. “It is important this knowledge is preserved and when used due recognition and recompense given to the holders of traditional knowledge.” The outlay for research and development in national plans must go up manifold and the “government should embark on laying down a National Innovation Policy to bring about the much-needed coordination among various initiatives in research, education, agriculture, medicine and business.

It has also been highlighted that the quality of research should be upgraded and institutions and agencies receiving funds must be made “fully accountable. The result of innovation should be harnessed to become products and services for the betterment of society. However, this translation is often unpredictable and long-drawn requiring substantial efforts.  

According to an earlier world report on “Development and Environment”, many developing countries in recent years had begun to develop policies and institutions for tackling environmental problems. The report specifically underlined the fact that because developing countries had to start from scratch and because their problems were extremely pressing, they had sometimes considered solutions that were untried or little used in the industrial world.

This was not a conjecture but that a number of cases were cited wherein the instances of innovative approaches to the environmental situation from developing nations were quoted. One, the report had cited control from pollution from transport in Mexico where a combination of regulations and incentives had been used. These were claimed to be less costly than regulation alone because they discouraged driving whereas most industrial (developed) countries encourage the use of cleaner engines and fuels. In Mexico measures such as gasoline taxes were being used to reduce demand and shift the travel towards less polluting modes of transport.

In Thailand, an Industrial Environment Fund had been proposed to finance the treatment of hazardous waste from industrial sources. The fund would be financed from charges on waste generation, and its proceeds would be used to establish and operate central treatment and disposal facilities.

In line with “polluter pays” principle, the fund would be financed from waste charges that would first be estimated for each industry and later verified by environmental auditing. The charge would be set at a level to cover the cost of transport, treatment and disposal of hazardous waste and provide a margin for implementing the programme. Interestingly, all factories would deposit with the fund their waste charge for the entire year.

Plants that attained lower waste per unit of the output, as verified by accredited private environmental auditing firms, would then be eligible for rebate in the operation of the treatment and disposal facilities would be contracted out to private waste management firms through competitive bidding.

Clearly, the main message of this initiative is that pollution control costs could be maintained if the incentives are right, according to the report. The more efficient an industry’s production process, the less waste it generates and the less it pays for waste treatment and disposal. Indeed, the scheme has given the industry an incentive to reduce waste and encourage developing business opportunities in hazardous waste management.

A study of air pollution in Southern Poland found net benefits to be the highest if stricter control on emissions of suspended particulate matter rather than on emissions of both particulates and sulphur dioxide were enforced. Apparently, the costs of protecting and improving the environment appear at first sight to be large, yet such investments must and can be afforded. With good policies, the costs are modest in comparison with the potential gains from improved efficiency and economic growth.

In all likelihood, most investments would pay for themselves. Such investments must and can by afforded with good policies. Moreover, costs are modest in comparison with potential gains. But increased international support would be essential, the report advocated. It also added that local environmental concerns needed to be better embedded in official assistance programmes, and the close link between environmental quality and poverty reduction warranted additional support.

The advocacy for innovative approach to face challenge of environmental control (and thus climate change and global warming), by President Patil does come timely for India. If given proper heed, Union Environment and Forest Minister Jairam Ramesh would not have reported to lament again that if there were any Nobel Prize for dirt and filth, India would get it. He is learnt to have done so at a function while releasing a report on “Green India, 2047.” Said the overview of the report,” Our limited analysis suggests that unclean air and water may be taking toll in terms of over eight lakh deaths in the country each year and morbidity costs amounting to 3.6 per cent of the GDP.”  It is time that our political class encourages innovation at the local level and have something to share with the rest of the world. –INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)