Round The World

New Delhi, 25 March 2010

US-Israel Ties

HICCUPS IN HONEYMOON?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

The formidable US-Israel ties presently seem to be on the rocks as a result of Israel’s decision to build 1600 Jewish homes in Ramat Shlomo in East Jerusalem. The tension has aggravated the announcement of the new construction plans while US Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was on a visit to Israel, thus snubbing the prospects of an American effort to broker indirect talks between the Palestinians and Israel.

Since then, American leaders and their Israeli counterparts have been engaged in efforts to defuse the diplomatic fallout that many commentators see as grave and undermining the broader US-Israel ties. The US maintains one of the most extraordinary alliances with this Middle East Jewish State, a relationship that expands through numerous webs of inter-linkages and which is largely seen as unshakable in its comprehensive nature. But, the current smoke raging over the settlement issue has unleashed forces that have the potential to at least rock the boat vigorously.

The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, seems to be spearheading the ire against the recent Israeli moves and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, seems equally adamant to prove his hawkish mettle when it comes to the issue of enlarging Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem. Speaking to the powerful US-based pro-Israel lobby group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Secretary Clinton matched optimism and confidence in US-Israel relations with equal skepticism over the controversial decisions taken by the Israel government. She made it known that it undermined the credibility of the US as a honest peace broker in the Middle East.

In her remarks,  Clinton warned that the Obama administration would push back “unequivocally” when it disagreed with the Israeli government’s policies. But she reaffirmed that America’s support for Israel was “rock solid, unwavering, enduring, and forever.” Earlier, she had rebuked the Israeli Prime Minister and listed down some demands that the US hoped Israel should comply with to put the peace process on track. During her speech at the AIPAC meet held at the Washington Convention Centre, she defended her rebuke and displeasure over the Israeli decision, and said that such a move jeopardized the very nature of steps being taken to move forward on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through American-brokered indirect talks.

Secretary Clinton had reportedly demanded that Israel reverse the housing plan, in the neighborhood of Ramat Shlomo; that the Israelis avoid further provocations in Jerusalem during coming peace talks; and that Netanyahu commit to substantive rather than procedural negotiations with the Palestinians. As of now, it is not very clear if the Israeli government has come anywhere close to acceding to the demands put forth, though there are reports that  Netanyahu is willing to make some concessions.

But, since then he has made it very clear in public that Israel would not relent where it matters the most, the crux of the whole episode. He has reaffirmed very categorically that there will be no change of policy on the construction of Jewish housing in East Jerusalem. Netanyahu apologized for the timing of the announcement and called it a mistake “done in all innocence.” But he has not changed his stance a bit on Israel’s insistence on its right to continue building in all of Jerusalem.

The Israeli Prime Minister stated: “No government of Israel for the last 40 years has agreed to place restrictions on building in Jerusalem,” listing every prime minister from Levi Eshkol to Ehud Olmert. He commented that the settlement of Jews in various suburbs of Jerusalem did not harm the Arabs of East Jerusalem in any way. Intended as a clarification to the American government displeased with Israeli to continue construction in East Jerusalem, the Israeli Prime Minister opined that construction in Jerusalem is like construction in Tel Aviv.

Speaking at the AIPAC meet, Clinton tried hard to salvage some brownie points hammering on an issue where Israel and the US have solid common grounds i.e. the issue of the Iranian nuclear programme and its implications in the Middle East region and American security. When she talked tough on stopping Iran from getting the nuclear weapon and plans of putting what she calls sanctions that “bite”, the audience was most receptive and supportive. “There must be no gap between the United States and Israel on security,” she said to loud applause.

But, the tension and the fractures in US-Israel relations became evident when she passed curt remarks and exuded skepticism of the present Israeli policy towards new settlements. Without mincing any words, she  opined that the status-quo in the region was not fruitful and was seriously jeopardizing any prospect of going forward with the impending peace talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis. Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former American ambassador to Israel, said  Clinton’s speech reaffirmed the strategic importance of the US-Israel relationship while not backing down on settlements.

She went ahead to praise Netanyahu for his 10-month moratorium on the building of settlements in the West Bank (Jerusalem had been excluded from it), and for backing a two-State solution. While condemning those who incite violence against Israel, she also defended the need to speak out against any decision that might endanger the peace process.  “As Israel’s friend,” she said, “it is our responsibility to give credit when it is due and to tell the truth when it is needed.” 

The comments doing the rounds is that the Clinton speech has calmed the boiling waters to some extent for the time being but the differences over the settlement are still brewing and fingers are being crossed on both sides as to what lies ahead. Even Israel's ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren was of the opinion that the US and Israel were facing the most serious case of difference since a confrontation between Henry Kissinger and Yitzhak Rabin in 1975 over an American demand for a partial withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula.

The US has demanded Israel to stop or restrict expansion of Jewish settlements in East Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank, pending final status negotiations with the Palestinians. On the other hand, the Israeli government seems unrelenting on the issue of settlement in East Jerusalem. Israel had annexed East Jerusalem from Jordan in the 1967 six-day war and since claimed sovereignty over it, thus seriously complicating the issue as the Palestinians claim it as the capital of its future State. Jerusalem is at the centre of the conflict between the Palestinians and Israelis.

As such, it is obvious that the most vicious disagreements will come over this issue. The US-Israel alliance is passing though a rough storm, but at the same time the alliance is time-proven and crisis-proven, cemented over the years through numerous deep-seated defence, strategic, economic and socio-cultural linkages. The coming days will unravel more questions on this alliance and the corresponding answers will come forth providing more insight into the nature of this formidable yet controversial relationship.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 17 March 2010

Putin’s Visit

DIVERSIFYING INDIA-RUSSIA TIES

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

India and Russia share a wide range of mutual convergences and the influential Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin symbolizes the upward trend in the bilateral ties between the two nations in the post-Cold War era. During the cold war, India maintained a fairly good rapport with erstwhile Soviet Union amidst the geostrategic virtual divisions of the world. In the game of great power rivalry, New Delhi tried to maintain its non-aligned nature while managing ties with both the USSR and the United States.

But after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Cold War came to an end and world politics went through a whirlwind of changes. In the altered circumstances, India has painted a different picture of itself: a vibrant and rapidly growing economy with one of the most enviable markets in the world, thanks to the liberalization of its economy. Today, when countries are interlinked in different areas of engagement, the challenge is to keep oiling the ties, keeping intact the mutuality of interest and more so the economic viability of the relationships. 

The presidential years of Prime Minister Putin has been largely credited with bringing back Russia into the reckoning in world politics using its energy resource as a major driving force of economic resurgence and hence a corresponding rise in strategic and political clout. Putin as the then president of the Russian Federation was also responsible for opening a new chapter in India-Russia ties considering the changes and continuities.

Though the US still holds sway in today’s world in terms of its superior military, the world is very different from either being bipolar or unipolar. In fact, it now resembles more of a multi-polar world in which every relationship should be considered at its own merit and differences should be worked out through diplomacy and not through cowboy-style duels.

The leadership in both India and Russia, despite some occasional hiccups has been able to keep the relationship sailing. The recent visit of  Putin is credible in increasing the pace and regularity of communication between the two countries, coming after the successful Moscow visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh late last year. Putin’s itinerary was strictly business and intended to carry forward official discussions on many of the projects and understandings reached during Singh’s visit.

While, new ventures were initiated and a host of other issues came in for serious consideration, the focus was on cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy and defence trade. The high point of Singh's visit was sealing a broad-based civilian nuclear agreement. The civilian nuclear deal with Russia goes beyond one signed with the US in some crucial aspects. Accordingly, Russia and New Delhi will have reprocessing and enrichment rights. Moreover, no ongoing nuclear power project or uranium fuel supply arrangement with Russia would be affected or stopped in the event of termination of bilateral cooperation for any reason. On the other hand, the Indo-US nuclear deal talks of termination of ongoing cooperation and the return of US supplied components and fuel in the event of the termination of agreement.

During Putin’s two-day visit, five agreements were inked between the two sides --two each in the nuclear sphere and fertilizers and one in the civilian space segment, besides many other in the sidelines that will significantly boost bilateral ties. The signing of the umbrella nuclear agreement sealed during Singh’s Moscow visit and decisions to expand cooperation in the development of civilian nuclear energy reactors would importantly enhance the ties in research and design.

India’s public sector nuclear enterprise Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and Russia’s Atomstroy Export signed a separate commercial contract to build more nuclear reactors of 1,000 MW each at Koodankulam in Tamil Nadu. Sites for Russian reactors were also allocated at Haripur in West Bengal. Moreover, the goal, according to the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), is for progressive indigenization of the nuclear reactors to be built in India with Russian collaboration.

The Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) waiver to India has opened the doors of nuclear commerce. The Bush Administration should be complemented for significantly improving India's prospects for getting the NSG-waiver. This vindicates the argument that engagements with different countries at different levels open up opportunities at other corridors, thus amplifying the importance of maintaining ties at their own merit. According to Putin, nuclear cooperation will go beyond mere building of reactors and supplying fuel to include waste disposal. He assured that the Russian reactors would be incorporated with latest safety measures, at the same adding that New Delhi was expected to put orders of up to a dozen reactors which could enable their supply at affordable rates.

The Inter-Government Agreement on Cooperation in the use of atomic energy for peaceful purpose signed during the visit envisaged the possibility of setting up a nuclear fuel facility in India. New Delhi has also agreed to consider the Russian offer to participate in an international nuclear fuel enrichment centre at Angarsk, Siberia.

However, a thorny issue in the Indo-Russian relationship that has often threatened mar an otherwise progressive course has been the Gorshkov pricing issue. While Singh’s visit had reportedly managed to achieve a thaw in the issue, Putin’s visit managed to finally seal the price of the re-fitted Soviet-era aircraft. The cancellation of the deal would not have severely derailed the comprehensive ties but such an outcome would have dented the reliability of the robust defense cooperation.

The sealing of the long-delayed renegotiated deal for Admiral Gorshkov, rechristened INS Vikramaditya, has removed an irritant in bilateral ties. This apart, 14 supplementary agreements were signed for finalization of cost and other technical aspects of the carrier. Despite India diversifying its source of defence purchases and new players giving competition, Russia continues to be the largest supplier of military hardware to India.

Besides the burgeoning defence trade, a conventional area of Indo-Russian cooperation, broader economic ties are not matching the potential. Major initiatives have been taken with a vision to close these gaps and harness potential to the optimum level. As such, pacts were signed on oil exploration, trade in diamonds and import of fertilizers.

Widening the horizons of high-tech cooperation, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) and the Russian space agency inked a pact on civilian application of the Russia Glonass (the Global Navigation Satellite System), the Russian equivalent of the US Global Positioning System. Pacts were signed to further intensify trade in the aviation sector, and IT and telecommunications were identified as major areas of focus to substantially increase the bilateral economic ties.

India-Russia ties ended on a good note last year and have started on a good note this year, as both sides welcome a free flow of timely discussion on a host of issues. Indeed, Putin’s visit both intensified and diversified the relationship, cementing the existing ties and building new vistas of cooperation. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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Round The World

New Delhi, 9 March 2010

Rao’s Lanka Visit

TIMELY, LENDS A HAND 

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

It has been stated more than often that it is much more difficult to win peace than a war, more so to sustain peace. This statement is truer every time it is made. As the neighboring island nation of Sri Lanka walks, stumbles and walks towards a political solution and reconciliation, India can use its good offices and diplomatic sources to help the Colombo government. It can help the Rajapaksa administration in walking that extra mile to resolve the grievances of the ethnic Tamil minority and usher in a new Sri Lanka that would not sow the seeds of a new Prabhakaran and a new LTTE help again.

Though President Mahinda Rajapkasa came back to power in a very controversial presidential election early this year, the Manmohan Singh administration has taken the right diplomatic step in recognizing his administration as the legitimate decision-maker on whose shoulder the future of the fragile nation lies. Validating the presidency of Rajapaksa puts him in the centre of the reconciliation process and the onus is now on him to deliver on the promises he had made. In this context, the recent visit of the Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao came at an opportune time, when India’s diplomatic stance and material assistance were made known to the nation, grappling with the regeneration of the Tamil-populated regions.  

The international community raised serious questions on how the Rajapaksa administration handled the offensive against the LTTE. Now, it sets its eyes on how the President goes about the resettlement of the displaced Tamils and delivers on his electoral mandate of bringing about a unified Sri Lanka. The poll statistics during the presidential election did not really reflect any favorable change of Tamil attitude towards the Rajapaksa administration. The ethnic divide looked more emphasized and the opinions fractured and cynical.

The symptoms of the disease that the new administration has to grapple with are right there for all to see in the form of the mandate provided to the new government. The challenger General Fonseka won in the north and the east, largely dominated by the Tamils and Tamil-speaking Muslims. As such, the challenges in front of the president, whose popularity among the Sinhalese is undoubted, is immense.

At this juncture, the international community will also take note of the diplomatic signals sent out by the Indian government, concerning the Sri Lankan peace process. Nirupama Rao’s visit was meant to hold discussions with her counterpart on a wide range of issues of mutual interest and to assess as to how New Delhi can assist in their efforts to bring stability and re-instill confidence in the ethnic minority. Her visit also assumes significance keeping in view that she has been closely acquainted with the island nation, having served as the High Commissioner for India in Sri Lanka from 2004-2006.

The Sri Lankans are indeed at a critical juncture of their history. After being ravaged by civil wars for years, cutting short any chances of reintegration and regeneration of the society as a whole, they have a second chance and should be a step ahead of the situation. After the end of the storm, they have a unique opportunity to rebuild the society and assuage the grievances and misunderstanding that gave birth to the storm in the first place.

Congratulating Rajapkasa on his electoral victory, Rao welcomed the relaxation of movement restrictions on Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and also expressed the hope that the resettlement process could be expedited, especially in Killinochchi and Mullaithivu, so that the IDPs could resume normal lives in their original places of habitation. President Rajapaksa had mentioned that around 70,000 IDPs remained in the camps, many of their own volition.

Rao also commented favourably on the prospect of the forthcoming general election in Sri Lanka. India’s assistance towards rehabilitation and reconstruction of the Northern and Eastern Sri Lanka and for the resettlement of the IDPs was highly appreciated, particularly the extension of US$ 425 million as Lines of Credit for railway projects in Northern Sri Lanka.

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, the importance of the October 2008 Joint Statement of Fishing Arrangements was reiterated and it was agreed to convene a meeting of the Joint Working Group on Fishing to discuss issues related to fishermen on both sides. Rao also announced New Delhi’s support for housing projects to be taken up in the Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu districts for the benefit of the IDPs and its decision to supply 55 buses for various educational, social and cultural organizations and locally elected bodies in northern, eastern and central Sri Lanka, to facilitate transportation and connectivity.

Various joint projects in the important areas of cultural engagement and shared cultural heritage were announced including the setting up of the International Buddhist Museum in the Dalada Maligawa Complex and the restoration of the famous Thiruketheshwaram Temple in Mannar. A onetime grant of Indian Rs. 15 million was announced to the corpus of the India-Sri Lanka Foundation engaged in crucial areas of art, culture, education, human resource development, training, etc.

The Foreign Secretary also inaugurated the Sri Lanka-India Centre for English Language Training in Peradeniya, Kandy. The Centre has been set up with the assistance of the Government of India in collaboration with the well-known English and Foreign Languages University, Hyderabad and is meant to support the Sri Lankan Presidential Initiative for English as a life skill.

New Delhi also intends to open a Consulate General in Jaffna and the Government of Sri Lanka has agreed to the proposal. While Sri Lanka has three consulate offices - Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata, India has only one consulate office located in Kandy. According to officials the modalities on setting up of the Jaffna Consulate are to be worked out and the basic objective behind the move is to cater to the needs of the people of the peninsula. “It would help India strengthen the cultural links between the Northern Province in Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu besides making it easier for the people to obtain visa to travel to India”, a senior official said.

Rao was successful in communicating India’s concern for the critical yet hopeful situation in neighbouring Sri Lanka. She made it known to Colombo that New Delhi’s assistance towards the reconstruction and rehabilitation process would always be forthcoming. India’s symbolic gestures, diplomatic assistance and material support assume equal importance in its policy towards the island nation.

Indian policy towards the Sri Lankan situation should serve as a reminder of New Delhi’s non-aggressive nature of policy-making towards smaller countries in the South Asian region and beyond. As a result of India’s overwhelming cultural, geographical and economic presence in the region, the ‘big brother syndrome’ to a large extent affects how smaller nations look at its policies. As such, India should do the extra bit to allay fears and suspicions on the part of these countries.--- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 3 March 2010

PM’s Saudi Visit

EXPANDING HORIZONS, OILING TIES

By Monish Tourangbam,

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

The recent three-day visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the oil-rich kingdom of Saudi Arabia can be assessed as a pragmatic step towards cementing international partnerships. The visit assumes importance in view of the developing situation in Afghanistan and the emerging dynamics in the trajectory of India-Pakistan relations. Singh’s visit is geared towards putting an end to speculation that the relations with the West Asian kingdom have been kept in the cold-storage. Singh resumed the State visit by becoming the third Prime Minister to visit Saudi Arabia since Jawaharlal Nehru in 1955 and India Gandhi in 1982. A rapidly growing economy like India accords much importance to this relationship in terms of the dividends that it will help bring to meet the country’s energy consumption.

The red-carpet that rolled out in honour of the Singh is symptomatic of the kind of relationship that the oil-rich kingdom wants to work on with India. The ties are mutual for if India needs Saudi Arabia to meets its energy consumption, the former too assumes importance in view of the its enviable market and the expertise that it can provide on various developmental fronts. One of the highpoints of the visit was the signing of the Riyadh Declaration between Singh and Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz. The declaration aims to cement ties and to raise bilateral cooperation to a strategic partnership covering security, economic, defence and political areas.

The occasion served the purpose of reviewing the status of implementation of the historic Delhi Declaration signed in 2006 during the significant visit of the Saudi king as the chief guest on the Republic Day celebrations. The one-day visit of Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal in December 2008 to convey his country’s  condemnation of the terror attack in Mumbai was a welcome gesture that should not be ignored.

In the post Cold-War scenario, power dynamics has been changing significantly in the international system and different regions around the world. As such, many countries including India and Saudi Arabia got engaged with coming to terms with the changed environment. But, the post-Cold War period also ushered in the liberalization of the Indian economy, leading to a changed perspective as far as investment opportunities in the country were concerned. Its rapid growth as one of the most important economies and markets in the world has inevitably brought in new needs and emerging opportunities.

A pragmatic and well-oiled relationship with Saudi Arabia assumes importance from the strategic, economic as well as the cultural point of view. Despite being a Hindu-majority state, India is home to a sizeable Muslim minority. The Saudi king being the custodian of the two Holy Mosques (Al-Masjid al-Ḥarām of Mecca and Al-Masjid al-Nabawi of Medina) attains a revered position in the Islamic world. Moreover, India in the present international system while diversifying its energy sources needs to cement its linkages with its traditional suppliers. In this context, ties with Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter of the world cannot be jeopardized.

Thus, the recent visit by the Prime Minister has successfully managed to emphasize the importance to keep the channels of communication active with frequent visits of dignitaries. The camaraderie shared between the leaders from both the sides provides a perfect springboard for taking the relations to the next strategic level. The kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the biggest crude oil supplier to India and efforts are targeted to taking the ties beyond the buyer-seller relationship to what is being termed as comprehensive energy partnership.

According to sources, Saudi Arabia agreed to raise the crude supply to India from 25.5 million tonnes a year to 40 million tones. Addressing the Council of Saudi Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Singh had commented that Indian companies were well-equipped to participate in the upstream and downstream oil and gas sector projects in Saudi Arabia and focused on the need for new partnerships in the area of new and renewable energy, sharing clean technologies and joint collaboration.

India-Saudi Arabia bilateral trade reached almost $25 billion in 2008-09 and Indian investments there now stand at more than $2 billion covering over 500 joint ventures. RITES, a Government of India Enterprise, has also won a contract to participate in the North-South Railway project, an ambitious plan to connect some of the most inhospitable terrain in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia’s national oil company) is reportedly setting up a procurement office in India worth an estimated $400 million. India reportedly is seeking to increase supply for three refinery projects at Paradip, Bhatinda and Bina.

The three new plants -- Indian Oil Corp.’s Paradip refinery in the eastern State of Orissa, Hindustan Petroleum Corp.’s unit at Bhatinda in northern Punjab and Bharat Petroleum Corp.’s Bina plant in central Madhya Pradesh -- will increase India’s refining capacity of 178 million tonnes a year by almost 20 per cent by the end of 2012. Saudi Arabia, also home to around 1.8 million Indian workforce provides huge foreign remittances.

New Delhi has also spoken of its willingness to share its expertise in the area of knowledge-based industries and human resource development. Indicative of the emphasis put on diversifying bilateral ties beyond the oil-sector, various agreements were signed in the areas of extradition, transfer of sentenced prisoners, scientific and technological cooperation, peaceful use of outer space, information sharing and Press exchanges, information technology, cultural exchange and advanced computing services.

Apart from the economics of the visit, the importance accorded to each other by the two countries should assume significance in view of the strategic and security challenges faced by India in the region. The close connection between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is unquestionable and the kingdom also has stake in the developing scenario in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Evolving situations in the region demands efforts from New Delhi to extend its linkages and cement existing ties with friendly countries such as  Saudi Arabia. The recent attacks in Afghanistan have raised serious questions over the safety of Indians engaged in reconstruction and relief efforts in the war-country. A pattern is developing where India is increasingly being targeted for the contribution to the Afghan reconstruction, while talks of reconciling the illusionary “Good Taliban” are being flouted.

Further, India-Pakistan talks are at a crucial stage after a lull post the 26/11 Mumbai attacks. The talks might have not have achieved much in concrete terms but the fact that the two sides could sit and negotiate over the table after more than a year is an initiation to be built upon. In the context of these engagements and developments in the region, India-Saudi Arabia relations need to be given importance and the recent visit, even if late, has come at an opportune time. India, in its present position, needs to expand its horizon of engagements and work on the shared interest with different countries to develop long-term mutuality of purpose and avoid ad-hoc policies.—INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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