Political Diary

New Delhi, 15 May 2010

Foot-In-Mouth Disease

UPA II: “UNZIPPING” MINISTERS

By Poonam I Kaushish

Political Delhi is badly afflicted by the foot-in-the-mouth disease. The bug has taken its toll within the Congress, BJP, Left and the taciturn allies. Making a moot point: Have our netagan bitten off more than they can chew?

Undoubtedly, the Congress’ garrulous Ministers have posed its rivals with an unusual problem. Who needs an Opposition in a long season of punishing self-goals by the Government? With not a few Ministers speaking irresponsibly and shooting their mouth off in all directions. Starting with the “greenhorn outsider” Tharoor’s infamous tweeting which ‘externalized’ him from his cushy ministerial gaddi.

From his lighthearted jab at “flying cattle class in deference to the political holy cows”, down a critique of India’s foreign policy under Nehru and Mahatma Gandhi, to change in Indian visa rules and telling Saudi Arabia to mediate between India and Pakistan had set the stage for his ouster. The last straw was his “mentoring” the Kochi IPL team ostensibly via “friend” Sunanda Pushkar’s sweat equity stake.

But this was drowned in the storm unleashed by Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh’s scathing attack on Union Home Minister Chidambaram wherein he chided the Minister for his “intellectual arrogance” while questioning his “law and order” centric approach to Maoist insurgency within days of the Dantewada massacre. Giving the BJP an opportunity to rip into the Government for housing “half-Maoists.”

It got uglier with the Road and Highway Minister Kamal Nath writing to the Prime Minister accusing his environment colleague Jairam Ramesh of blocking infrastructure development. Ditto with Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and MoS in the PMO Prithviraj Chavan over Bt brinjal. Followed by Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad’s words of wisdom (sic): “If there is electricity in every village, people will watch TV till late at night…. They won’t get a chance to produce children.” 

Topped by Ramesh’s adverse comment of the Home Ministry’s “paranoid and overly defensive and alarmist" policies to Chinese investments into the country which were putting "needless" restrictions on these.  “We are imagining demons where there are none," he asserted. Leading to an angry Chidambaram shooting off a strongly- worded letter to Singh, expressing unhappiness over his Cabinet colleague's remarks. While the BJP demanded Ramesh’s resignation.

Earlier too, he had come out with priceless gems: “Our cities are the dirtiest of the world. If there is a Noble Prize for dirt and filth, India will win it, no doubt, he averred at an UN conference. At a University convocation in Bhopal: “The convocation gown is a barbaric colonial relic. Why can’t we wear simple dress instead of looking like medieval vicars or Popes?” and discarded the gown he was wearing.

Another political hot potato followed. A young Congress MP came out in support of ‘Khap’ or caste panchayats even as his Government and Congress leaders criticised these for their extra-constitutional role in officiating against marriages within the same ‘gotra’ or clan.

If Congress Ministers spelt bad news, worse venom spewed from allies’ stables. From NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s sugar scam to spiraling food prices and his priceless,“ I’m not an astrologer to predict when prices will come down,”  crowned by murmurs of his involvement in the IPL pie. Adding to Congress woes was Trinmool stormy petrel Mamata making plain her rising displeasure. Dubbing the Congress as ‘betrayers’ she asserted, “Some Congress leaders in Delhi cannot tolerate politicians who have a mass base …. The mastermind is a senior Congress leader who survives by running errand for others….One should not think that Congress has made us Ministers. We have our own strength in UPA…No one has the right to humiliate others,” she added.

Barely had the dust settled down that a furore arose over DMK Minister Raja’s alleged links with a PR lobbyist brought back charges of the multi-crore 2G spectrum scam. Along-with a media expose of phone-tapping of Opposition leaders during the course of the investigations. And Union Chemicals and Fertilizer Minister Alagiri, preferring to holiday in Maldives instead of attending  Parliament’s Budget session. That too without seeking the Prime Minister’s approval. 

Leading to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s stern ‘zip-up-your-lips’ message to its brash and rash Ministers who revel in bellicose verbose. Asking them to refrain from commenting on the functioning of other Ministries, especially on foreign soil with regard to relationship with important neighbours like China.

Questionably, are these political outbursts just to derive media mileage? Score brownie points over colleagues? A sign of pent-up frustrations demanding an out? Are they a pointer to the lack of inner Party democracy? A healthy inter-active debate? After all, what is wrong in speaking out one’s mind? Should we simply shrug it off as an abysmal lack of humour? Or a much too gentle Prime Minister who has no control over his motor-mouthed colleagues? All this and more.

Clearly, all is not well with the Congress led UPA II. A signal that the fizz is running out before the first anniversary champagne bash has been celebrated. Sources in Congress admit to disquiet in the Party over remarks by Congress Ministers against their colleagues, approach of another Ministry in its own Government.

"It is something that is not encouraging. They need to behave responsibly as they are under Constitutional oath and need to abide by the dictum of collective responsibility," asserted a senior leader. Adding, “If there are differences of opinion over an issue, these have to be resolved at the Party and Government forum." Elaborated a Minister, “Part of the problem is that a few feel intellectually superior to the rest.

But this bad-mouthing syndrome has gripped other netagan as well who find it too tough to be politically correct. Last week BJP Chief Gadkari too landed feet first in trouble over his derogatory “dog” remarks against Mulayam and Lalu. “Bade dakarte the sher jaise, aur kutte ke jaise ban kar Soniaji aur Congress ke ghar par talve chatne lage”' (these leaders were roaring like lions but later bowed like dogs to lick the feet of Sonia and the Congress),"

What next? Importantly, the Congress Ministers and leaders need to rein in their over-eagerness to out-perform their colleagues and earn brownie points with their political mai-baap, read Sonia. Hold back voicing opinions, making outlandish statements and “out-of-the-box” ideas which invariably land them in trouble. They need to desist from coming across as lurking challengers with an “attitude” out to flatten opponents. Resulting in becoming one’s own goalkeeper only to score a self-goal.

 Part of the problem lies in a confidence bred by a misplaced sense of proximity to the powers-that-be. Many get caught in the political vortex of ‘more loyal than the King’ syndrome. Or suffer an inherent sense of intellectual superiority. The time for the Prime Minister and the Congress President to keep their flock in check. True, everyone loves a good story and revels in the company of loud-mouthed netas.  But they need to take note of a wise adage: Controversy thrills but kills! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 13 May 2010

Sacking of Governors

NOT ON CENTRE’S WHIMS & FANCIES

By Insaf

The Centre can no longer play ducks and drakes with the Governors in the States as it has done time and again over the years. As a constitutional authority, he cannot be removed with a “change in power” in a State as have been witnessed on certain occasions in the past. The much-needed protection has come by way of a landmark judgment by the Supreme Court on Friday last. A five-member constitutional bench ruled: “A Governor cannot be removed on grounds that he is out of sync with the policies and ideologies of the Union Government or the Party at the Centre. Nor can he be removed on the ground that the Government had lost confidence in him.” In simple terms, it means that a change of Government at the Centre will no longer be a valid ground for the removal of governors holding office “to make ways for others favoured by the new Government.” The power to remove a Governor, the bench insists, will have to be exercised only by the President in “rare and exceptional circumstances for valid compelling reasons.”

The bench was hearing a PIL filed in 2004 by senior BJP leader B P Singhal, challenging the unceremonious removal of the Governors of Uttar Pradesh (Vishnu Kant Shastri), Haryana (Babu Parmanand), Gujarat (Kailashpati Mishra) and Goa (Kidarnath Sahni) by the UPA-I  Government soon after it came to power. The Centre had argued that if a party came to power with a particular social and economic agenda and found that a Governor was out of sync with its policies, then it should be able to pack him off. But the court was firm: the Governor “is not the agent or the employee of the Centre” and nor can he “be politically active.” Once the Governors were appointed “they owed allegiance and loyalty to the Constitution and not to any political party.” Importantly, it also held that if the reasons for a Governor’s removal were “irrelevant, malafide or whimsical”, the court would interfere.

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States Misuse Funds

Funds have literally flowed like water from the Centre to the States for its pet irrigation project only to find there has been little gain. In the past 15 years, the Government has spent over Rs 26,000 crore for the Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP), aimed at improving the country’s agricultural output by extending irrigation facilities to areas where none exist. However, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) has found that in many projects “no irrigation facilities were created” as the money was spent on existing ones. In its report tabled in the recently-concluded session of Parliament, the CAG noted that against the targeted potential of 9.65 million hectares, only 4.90 million hectares was created, i.e only half the area envisaged. Importantly, six States—Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh, were given preferential treatment. They received 75 to 85 per cent of the grants without showing corresponding performance, in the project launched in 1996-97.

Other anomalies cited are: Gujarat spent Rs 675 crore on existing or under-construction canals instead of building new ones for drought-prone areas; Karnataka diverted Rs 8.08 crore for expenditure on non-AIBP schemes; Rajasthan committed irregularities worth Rs 182 crore, whereas Uttar Pradesh spent the money on setting up a computer centre and to fund the expenses of the office of an engineer-in-chief! Worse, of the 28 major irrigation projects sanctioned in 2003-08 by the Planning Commission, 11 were done without proper investigation or survey. Reports of 17 projects were found to be without data on annual rainfall, soil survey or incomplete meteorological data. The audit scrutiny revealed that 14 States gave undue benefit of Rs 186 crores to contractors. While 100 of the 253 projects sanctioned were shown to be  completed, 12 were incomplete or not even sanctioned. In all this, the CAG has found the Union Water Resource Ministry equally guilty. It has not taken action against any erring State.

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Hope In Assam

Insurgency in the North East has received a severe blow, giving the Centre hope for taking its peace dialogue forward. The recent handing over of the most-dreaded militant leader of Assam, Ranjan Daimary, chief of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) by Bangladesh to the Indian authorities, has sent a strong signal to the insurgents: they can no longer look for safe sanctuary from the eastern neighbour. Alleged to have masterminded the October 2008 serial bomb blasts in the State that killed over 80 people, Daimary is the fifth militant that has been handed over by the Sheikh Hasina regime. A few months ago, ULFA leader Arbinda Rajkhowai, his deputy Raju Barua and two others had the same fate. Daimary is the big catch as he led the anti-talks faction in the NDFB and had close links with the ULFA. His arrest is likely to isolate ULFA’s commander-in-chief, Parmesh Barua. It is time the Centre set in motion a well-thought out peace process with those who want to talk --- and talk sincerely.

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Maharashtra Seeks Package-II

The Ashok Chavan Government in Maharashtra is keeping its fingers crossed to get the Centre to accede to its request vis a vis Vidarbha. It has sought a second Prime Minister’s Relief Package for six-suicide prone districts of Vidarbha. While the State has raised a demand for Rs 7,200 crore, the Centre has asked it to get the implementation of the Rs 3,750 crore first Package reviewed by an independent body. The demand was raised with the Planning Commission on the State’s plan for 2011 last week, which is learnt to have “picked some holes in the implementation of the previous package.” Recall, the PM had announced the first package in June 2006 to be implemented over three years in the six districts of Akola, Amravati, Washim, Wardha, Buldhans and Yevatmal. This also included a waiver of interest on loans taken by the farmers and rescheduling of debts. The big question is: will it be a fair evaluation against the backdrop of the fact that the count on suicides by farmers has not stopped.       

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J&K, Haryana Celebrate

Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana have reason to celebrate. The results of the all-India Civil Services exams has brought great news. Dr Shah Faesal, who hails from the remote Sangram village of Lolab valley in Kupwara district, has made the State proud. The 27-year-old is the first person from the Valley to top the exams. And that, too, in the very first attempt. Faesal’s feat, said J&K Governor, NN Vohra on Friday last, has shown that the Kashmiri youth have very high potential. Faesal’s success is more creditable given the challenges and crises he faced. His father was killed by the militants in 2002 and the family criminally hounded. Likewise, in ‘Jatland’ Haryana, the results have given hope to aspiring women of the State, where Khap panchayats and low female sex ratio has been hitting the headlines. Two daughters-in-law Poonam Malik and Monika Dahiya, both hailing from small town Sonepat,  have made it to the civil services merit list. Winds of change may just be beginning to blow. 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Events & Issues

New Delhi, 12 May 2010  

2^nd Green Revolution

THE WAY OUT FOR FARMERS?

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

There is much talk in recent times about the need for a second green revolution as the country will have to increase its agricultural output by over 340 million tonnes by 2020 in the face of an increasing demand by a growing population. Recall, that the first green revolution was limited to only five crops with the main focus on wheat and that too in a few areas of the country, mainly Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh. Studies have revealed that the cost-intensive green revolution helped the rich farmers while the small and marginal farmers did not receive the desired benefits and their conditions showed a decline.

In this backdrop, the government visualized a four-pronged strategy, the most important being the extension of the green revolution in the eastern region – comprising Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, eastern UP, West Bengal and Orissa. A sum of Rs 400 crores was allocated but experts believe it may be too meagre to really make a dent in these States, which are lagging behind in production and productivity. 

This apart, it has been proposed to organize 60,000 “pulses and oilseed villages” in rain-fed areas during 2010-11 and provide an integrated intervention for water harvesting, watershed management and soil health to enhance the productivity of the dryland areas. This is significant as with the per capita availability of water declining, the dryland areas could resort to pulses and oilseeds production, both of which are heavy in demand and the output needs a boost, for which Rs 300 crores allocation this current year appears reasonable.  

Additionally, there is need to sustain the growth achieved in the green revolution areas by improving soil health, water conservation and management. Climate resilient agriculture, field research and experimentation are vital. An allocation of Rs 200 crores is apt but much depends on the work of the agricultural scientists and extension officers to ensure implementation of the steps suggested.    

However, whether these proposals would be able to reach the small farmers and make a dent to the whole of the agricultural sector remains to be seen. The focus on agricultural research has to be field-oriented so as to ensure efficient use of resources and conservation of soil, water and ecology on a substantive basis along with introduction of newer technologies, encouraging production and use of bio-fertilizers and application of bio-genetics for improved plant and horticultural products. Then only can the second green revolution can become a reality.

Even the 11^th Plan emphasized on certain measures for taking agriculture to a higher trajectory of 4 per cent annual growth. For this to become a reality, the budget has rightly emphasized on making technology and credit available to the small farmer at the grass root level. The steps outlined in the Plan are: improving water management, rainwater harvesting and watershed development; reclaiming degraded land for cultivation and focusing on soil health; bridging the gap through effective extension at the grass root level;  diversifying into high-value outputs, fruits, flowers, medicinal plants, bio-diesel etc.; providing easy access to credit at affordable rates; and improving the incentive structure and functioning of markets.

Former President, Dr. A. P. J. Kalam, realized the potential of Indian agriculture and highlighted this in various forums. While there is unanimity that the spread effect of the second green revolution must reach the farthest centres of the country, some have rightly said that it should ensure financial inclusion of the small and marginal farmers, whose numbers continue to grow over the years.

Certain other aspects such as agri-marketing in a globalized environment, frontier areas of research and development and technology transfer and extension, irrigation and water planning, food processing and diversification of agricultural products need to be given attention. It is significant that the problems of small and marginal farmers, who constitute the major segment of the farming community and who are neglected, need the help and support.

The promotion of agro processing centres in the rural areas is an imperative need. It would result in the minimization of post-production losses and production of value-added products for consumers at affordable prices. The question of reducing wastages and the improvement of storage has also been stressed as the second element of the agricultural growth strategy. If necessary, private sector participation would need to be ensured, specially in developing agro processing in a major way. It cannot be denied that the private sector has played a significant role as developers of new crop varieties, specially hybrids, and providers of high quality seeds. It is now necessary for the government to encourage and provide incentives for collaborative research for developing products.

Agricultural development could be possible through the following measures: new and innovative technology for enhancing production and for resource conservation; encouraging farmers’ cooperatives as is being done in Gujarat and Maharashtra; massive skill training and entrepreneurship development; value addition of agricultural products, at the farmers’ level and good marketing network, including development of future market. It is understood that the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) has set up around 200 experiential learning units at 43 agricultural universities in different parts of the country to impart such training. 

To start with there is a belief that the second green revolution should be made possible in the rain-fed areas so as to improve the income levels of the distressed farmers. The main challenges obviously lie in reaching new technologies to such farmers, providing them necessary credit and improving their incomes through better infrastructure and marketing strategies. Positive steps are necessary and these are: strengthening the existing Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and setting these up in all the blocks of the country to reach all sections of farmers in boosting production, facilitating adoption of improved knowledge on production, value addition and marketing and extending all types of help through adoption of improved knowledge on production, value addition and marketing.

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But the crucial aspect is that returns from agriculture have to be monitored so that the farming community is not put in a precarious situation and mounting debts do not lead them to suicide. Even in Punjab, where the average farm size is 3.8 acres which in 2.5 times the average size of Indian farms, the farmers income is far less than the starting salary of a Class IV government employee. The big question is: how will farmers continue to be involved in cereal production with dwindling incomes, more so with the ongoing controversy on fertilizer and electricity rates on the increase? Thus, there is an imperative need to enhance subsidies and substantially enhance the minimum support price for various crops. Higher rates would ensure better returns for farmers and there is no reason to raise a hue and cry about increased food process.

In the not-to-distant future, India can definitely emerge as an agricultural power if the proposed strategy is implemented. We need to overhaul socio-economic and farm policies to remove the rural disparities and poverty or at least bring it down steadily. The face of rural India must be transformed keeping in view the need to improve the living conditions of the masses. Diversification strategies must be evolved to bring more value-addition while agricultural productivity is geared up. One may conclude with an estimate by eminent economist Dr. C. Rangarajan, in 1982, that a mere one per cent increase in agricultural output led to a 0.7 increase in national income and it may be added that most part of this enhanced income obviously reached the grass-root levels of rural India. ---INFA   

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 7 May 2010

Rising Rupee

GOOD OMEN FOR INDIAN ECONOMY

By Shivaji Sarkar

Is it good or bad news? The rupee is appreciating against the dollar and other major currencies. Should one celebrate or not is the big question before the citizens, the industry and the government.

The performance of the Indian rupee against the dollar has improved significantly in the 2009-2010. The rupee has shown tremendous strength against the US$ as the rupee-US$ exchange rate appreciated to Rs. 44.33 per dollar on April 16. In end-March last year it was Rs. 52.2 per dollar. In an overall estimate, the rupee has appreciated by 15 per cent in a year. According to the Economic Survey 2009-10, the main reasons for this appreciation is the significant change in the foreign institutional investment (FII) inflows, ($ 23.6 billion between April and December 2009), continued inflows under the FDI and NRI deposits, better economic performance of the Indian economy and weakening of the US dollar in the international markets.

However, there are different views. Exporters have an aversion for any raise in the rupee value. They have reasons--it affects their earnings. The exporters reasoning gets support from the industry body, the FICCI, which is in agreement with them. In contrast, the importers, including oil companies, heave a sigh of relief as the rupee rises. It lowers the import bill and helps stabilizing oil prices in the domestic market and reduces cost of operation.

Obviously there is a conflict of interests. These are, however, sectoral interests. So the next question is: Should the economic parameters be decided only by narrow vision? It cannot be. Some years ago, the former Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, had said that he dreamt of travelling abroad with the rupee and the world market respectfully demanding it and not the dollar. This must be the vision.

Whatever the appreciation, the rupee however remains far below its value in 1996, when it was priced at Rs 35 to a dollar. Effectively this means that the rupee still has not appreciated and that its value was far higher only some years ago. In 1992, when the Indian economy was said to be gasping it was priced Rs 30.6. Thus, the hullabaloo about its appreciation is over nothing.

By April 2002, it had touched Rs 48.9 per US dollar. From 2002, the rupee reversed direction and appreciated every year, except in 2006, till it reached Rs 40 to a dollar in April 2008. Over 2008-09, as the global financial crisis unfolded, the rupee depreciated sharply to 50 to the dollar by April 2009. In comparison, the Indian trade account (oil plus non-oil) has been systemically negative over the past three decades from 1980-81 till 2010. The current account - goods and services business - has also been consistently negative from 1980-81 to the first nine months of 2009-10, except for the three-year period from 2001 to 2004.

The rupee’s gain should be a matter of pride, though there could be some hiccups. The world, including the erstwhile most powerful nations such as the US and the UK, is looking towards India for their own revival and sustenance. After all, someone has to lead the next global charge? The majority of the developed economies are either bogged down in the substantial quantities of debt that they desperately need to pay off, or weighed down by those elderly populations, such as Germany and Japan, who are weakening the consumption growth and leading to export dependence.

The consumers given the high poverty level are still found in India. It is understood that no economic growth can be sustained by exports alone. Domestic consumption boosts the process. While the US economy had that strength, India needs to bolster it.

Importantly, the country needs to take care of its low-value exports for sustaining some jobs. But the entire international trade is limited to 15 per cent of the GDP and has a mere two per cent share in the world trade. So its strength would not be judged on it. Instead, there is need to concentrate on other issues.

If India wants to be a super power, it can never achieve this dream if its currency lacks the strength. The concern remains simply because not all parameters are as strong as these seem to be. The current account deficit veers around 3 per cent at $ 12 billion. But that would remain so unless the country takes steps to strengthen the manufacturing side and go into high value exports.

It is also not appropriate to say that high rupee value affects exporters. It has helped the exporters as input costs have come down. Many Indian export businesses such as gems and jewellery depend on imports add value and re-export. Both the garment and textile business face some problems as prices are set in advance. In a global business, the country has not created the strength that it needs to. This weakness has to be overcome through policy changes.

Contrast this with the gain of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies’ benefits owing to raw material costs. Prices of many key ingredients of items such as soaps, detergents and hair oils and materials for packaging have increased in the international market by a whopping 34 to 40 per cent. A rising rupee would negate the impact of cost increases such as palm oils, used for making toilet soap.

Indeed, the gain possibly of a rising rupee is more in the long run rather than a short one. It also affects the Indian MNCs whose overseas subsidiaries lose notional value for the time being. But these are accepted as part and parcel of the business risk. These could never be fully hedged and should not be an argument for keeping the rupee value low.

Those seeking the Reserve Bank’s intervention forget that it has many ramifications. If it buys dollars it releases more rupees and this may add to the inflation. If it increases the interest rate it invites dollar deposits and that too further appreciates the rupee.

The dollar has to lose its shine as the US economy continues its downward journey. The rupee cannot be kept at an artificial low for long. It would rise against all international currencies. In sum, it should be treated as a welcome sign for the Indian economy.—INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)