Round The World

New Delhi, 3 May 2011

Osama Bin Laden’s Death

 WAR ON TERROR: WHAT NEXT?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The US has finally hunted down their enemy No.1, Saudi tycoon-cum-dreaded terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden aka the most wanted man in the world responsible for the 9/11 attacks. Probably the longest man-hunt in human history ended with an American operation at the garrison town of Abbottabad, about 50 kms North-East of Pakistan’s Capital Islamabad.

Needless to say, Osama was the primary reason behind the War on Terror in Afghanistan that will now out-live his death. In fact, the War on Terror and the Af-Pak strategy is much more complex at present and it is no longer about one Osama.

 Consequently, despite the debate that certainly arises as to how Osama’s death would affect America’s withdrawal strategy from Af-Pak, US operations in the region at this juncture can hardly be decided on the basis of his death. Indeed, there might be increasing pressure on allied countries to re-assess the war in Afghanistan as all nations involved have experienced war-fatigue and are looking for a safe way out.

But, it is also true that the war in the Af-Pak region has morphed into a bloodier, messy and enduring campaign and the Taliban insurgency and the many splinter groups that Islamic fundamentalism has spawned will hardly be affected with the death of one Osama Bin Laden.

Significantly, the coming days and weeks will be a critical time to see how the Obama Administration, triumphant and energized because of this successful campaign capitalizes on the gains. For one, the Al Qaeda will definitely be in an unsettled mood suffering a leadership void because not many terrorist leaders could be as charismatic as Osama, who had a reputation of unifying ability and carried with him the aura of an iconic leader, a millionaire and a former Mujahedeen who stood with his brethren for the cause of Islam.

Even while he was on the run from the US forces, and maintained an under-ground life, the very knowledge that he was out there somewhere still plotting against the western countries would have been a big morale booster for other like-minded groups and “jihadis”. Indeed, his death will be a big blow to the hearts and minds of Al Qaeda members and their affiliate groups. His second in command, Ayman Zawahiri, for all his capabilities, does not seem to have the same kind of charisma and uniting power.

Thus, definitely some points could be scored at this moment of crisis within the central Al Qaeda. But, again the Al Qaeda itself has become highly de-centralized over the years leading to a lot of splinter groups in different parts of the world, sharing the same kind of ideology and often employing the same kind of terror tactics but without much of a central control.

Moreover, one-man terror plots are equally possible these days, with the kind of reach and connectivity that terrorist operations have shown, using information technology and other inventions of the modern world for their sinister purposes.

As such, the coming days are not going be easy. Hence, the end of Osama is a watershed moment, a tremendous psychological blow to terror organizations, a show of resolve that the effort to catch or kill the mass murderer had not slackened over the years.

But, this is definitely not the end of Al Qaeda, nor any real comfort to the kind of campaign that US forces and other countries would face in their fight against terrorism, especially in the epicenter of international terrorism: the Af-Pak region.

 The Taliban insurgency and the various splinter groups will hardly be affected by Osama’s death. The corruption in the Afghan Government and society, the internal ethnic divisions and the drug money that fuels a large part of the insurgency has hardly anything to do with the end of Osama. Dreaded groups like the Haqqanis or groups in Pakistan like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan and the Laskar-e-Taiba will hardly tone down their violence because Osama is gone. 

According to Seth Jones of RAND Corporation, a major US think-tank, Bin Laden's death does not resolve the big-ticket issues between Washington and Islamabad, namely Pakistan's support for the Taliban and other insurgent groups battling U.S. forces in Afghanistan, like the Haqqani network.

“As long as many of those issues continue to exist, and they have very different interests, and very different strategic goals in the area, then some level of conflict will likely persist,” Jones added.

In fact, it is being feared that terrorist attacks could actually rise in the coming days and weeks as a sort of reprisal and revenge against Osama Bin Laden’s killing. There could be deliberate effort to show that the Al Qaeda was still very much in action. This could be done through quick-time small-scale terrorist attacks.

The US Department of Homeland Security reportedly said, “The Intelligence Community (IC) assesses the death of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden could result in retaliatory attacks in the Homeland and against US and Western interests overseas.”

The death of Osama and the circumstances in which he was found has raised a major debate around the role of Pakistan in the War on Terror. The fact that Osama was traced to a mansion at Abbottabad, very close to the Pakistani Capital, and right under the nose of the Pakistani Military Academy has raised a lot of questions on the Pakistani military intelligence and the Government.

Undoubtedly, for quite some time, the top brass of the Pakistani leadership have been denying that Osama was in Pakistan. The present situation puts them in tight rope exposing either the connivance of the Pakistani Establishment or the incompetence of their intelligence.

According to Hasan Askari Rizvi, a military analyst in Lahore, “If Bin Laden’s presence was not known to Pakistan’s security agencies when he was located close to important military installation, it will be viewed as their incompetence or over-confidence. If they knew about his presence but did not take action, this will raise questions about the agenda of Pakistan’s security agencies for fighting terrorism,” he added. 

Importantly, Indian officials also have taken serious note of the scenario, and re-emphasize their long held view that Pakistan continued to provide safe havens to terrorists, thus under-mining the fight against terrorism. “The world must not let down its united effort to overcome terrorism and eliminate the safe havens and sanctuaries that have been provided to terrorists in our own neighbourhood,’’ observed India’s External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is an important ally in the US War on Terror in the Af-Pak region but it cannot be denied that Islamabad has not been committed to the purpose and has played a double-game. In the process, sincerely acting against only those terror groups that threaten the Pakistani State, and over-looking and even colluding in the case of groups that target India.

Hence, in the coming days, the location of the operation to kill Osama, Abbottabad might assume more importance opening rounds and rounds of debate regarding the nature of Pakistan’s assistance in the War on Terror and testing various nuances of the US-Pakistan alliance against terrorism. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 29 April 2011

ADB Warning

REVERSE FARM POLICIES

By Shivaji Sarkar

The Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) assessment on food inflation is a stern warning to India and its neighbouring Asian countries. The Bank has virtually criticised these Governments for their lack of initiative to control inflation.

Importantly, the ADB suggestion calls for stoppage of foreign direct investment in agriculture. The Bank has told these nations that if food prices continue to rise at 10 per cent the GDP growth pattern would be hit. (International rating agency Goldman Sachs too had made similar predictions a few days back for India).

According to ADB it would also push over 6.4 crores more people to extreme poverty --- earning less that $ 1.25 a day, in the region. India would have half of them at 3 crores additional extreme poor over its estimated figure of 45crores. If the food inflation rate is at 20 per cent, as it has been during the last two years, the number of extreme poor would touch 5.9 crore in India alone, says ADB

Rising food prices, the ADB affirms is affecting other sectors as well and the growth story in the region might reverse. As food remains the major expenditure and if that increases, people’s capacity to spend on other necessities diminishes. The Chief ADB economist Changyong Rhee asserts, “Left unchecked, the food crisis will badly undermine recent gains in poverty reduction made in Asia”. Bluntly, the region would not be able to achieve the Millennium Development Goal set by the UN.

The Bank has suggested efforts to stabilise food production with greater investments in agriculture and expand storage facilities. It has called upon India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sir Lanka, Malaysia, China, South Korea and Vietnam – to take steps to check shrinkage of agricultural land. The region is becoming more populous and it needs to retain arable land if not add to it.

The problem is to accentuate as the population is rising fast. Even at slower rates population in India has touched 121 crore. It is estimated to surpass China in two decades. The global population is to increase to 900 crore from today’s 600 crore.

The ADB prescription is not difficult. The experts in this country too have been suggesting it. But it calls for having a relook at 12^th Plan draft. The Planning Commission led by Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has been repeatedly harping on removing people from agriculture to other areas.

Shockingly, the Plan panel refused to look at the reality that jobs in all other sectors are not growing or they grow for a small period followed by sacking of workers for a longer period. In effect, jobs are not being added in a sustainable manner.

Undoubtedly, agriculture is an eyesore for experts who target double digit growth. They have a reason. The latest Economic Survey says agriculture contributes only 4 per cent to GDP. A good reason! But it also says that this small portion of the GDP sustains 58 per cent of the population, almost 72 crores. Some years back the figure was around 62 crores.

Where would these burgeoning numbers be given jobs? It seems the nation is unwilling to learn from the agitations of Singur, Nandigram in West Bengal; Aligarh-Bulandshahar in western UP or Jaitapur in Maharashtra.

Needless to say, making agriculture less remunerative has cost the nation dearly. Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat have not progressed on the mere strength of their industry. But a pragmatic approach to agriculture has made these States stand apart. Bihar is now turning this as a great opportunity.

But, planners state that agriculture needs higher investment, bring in policies that are detrimental to its growth and deprive those engaged in farming. The indigenous farmers who created the bread basket are derided. They are not extended any official support. Whatever little was being given in the name of subsidy has all been withdrawn leading to shooting prices of fertilisers and other farm inputs.

The panacea suggested is foreign direct investment (FDI). Stealthily many farm areas have been opened to FDI --- warehousing and cold chains terming these as “infrastructure”, production of seeds, horticulture, floriculture, cultivation of vegetables and mushrooms. Besides, animal husbandry, pisiculture, aquaculture have also been thrown open to FDI.

It appears to be a nice way to boost investment. It is not. The Government policy would cause more hardship for those dependent on agriculture. It is allowing back-door entry of multi-nationals like Monsanto and Cargill in this sector. These companies and even large Indian companies wherever they have entered this area even in a limited way have thrown more people out of agriculture.

In many cases these companies promote farming non-food items as they have done in the US and Brazil, where farmers are told to produce crops for bio-fuel. The recent global food grain price rises by 30 per cent is attributed to shifting of cultivable area to bio-fuel in the US and Brazil having the largest arable area leading to food grain shortage.

It is a bit surprising that India is following this failed path. Not only higher food prices, as ADB says, but the new FDI policy would also throw many more engaged in farming to extreme poverty as they would have little to do.

Often it is touted that large companies as they enter would create new jobs and make the GDP look healthier and obese. That does not happen. The companies are more interested in recovering their investments. They reduce cost on manpower and turn entrepreneurs into their slaves. Is that the way to treat the skilled farmers?

Our planners need to remember that the farmers remain the mainstay of rural cottage industries, handicraft and many exotic ways of production and lifestyle. The new corporate-oriented policies would virtually lead to their annihilation.

It is time the nation discusses this and forces the Government to reverse the policy. The Government needs to invest in re-training in new research processes by the farming community. They are the most adaptable but our investment percentage in farm research remains at the level of 1970s with very minor variation.

India needs to increase production, save farm land, strengthen and universalise the public distribution system. Investment is needed but not the way the Government has envisaged through the pernicious process of FDI. It calls for a review and reversal of the farm policy. --- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Defence Notes

New Delhi, 3 May 20011

Adarsh Scam

MAKING ARMY SCAPE GOATS

By Col (Dr) P K Vasudeva (Retd)

Scams galore infest the country and corruption is rampant. From the grass root level to the highest levels of Government. Indeed, the whole world is involved in various types of scams whereby values, ethics and honesty have been put in the cold storage so that people in the rat race can become rich overnight.

Unfortunately, the Adarsh Society scam in Mumbai has been projected in a fabricated form, hence, this article. But it has not been written to garner public sympathy but simply a means to highlight certain facts that families of the victimized (so-called accused) Army personnel, feel have been overlooked/ignored in the wake of the Adarsh housing controversy.

In fact, the media both electronic and print, in their quest to be one up on the other, has crucified the Armed Forces members of the housing society without ascertaining the facts pertaining to the case.

Whereby, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) filed an affidavit in Bombay High Court on 24^th Jan 2011, admitting that it did not have any record of the plot (where Adarsh Colony stands) or its title. Consequently, this proves that the plot in question does not belong to the MoD. Plainly, it is not defence land.

Besides, both the ex-Chief Minister Ashok Chavan and the present Chief Minister Prithviraj Chauhan have said on the Assembly floor that the land belongs to the State Government.

As per its affidavit, the MoD intends initiating action now to take over the land. Clearly, this seems an after-thought to cover up its untruth. What about the damage already done to the reputation of the concerned Army officers in particular and the Army in general?

The MoD affidavit also admits that in 1964 the Maharashtra State Government through a letter by the Collector had informed the Defence Estates Officer (DEO) of Mumbai and Gujarat circles that “it would not transfer land from Block VI Backbay Reclamation to the Defence”.

Essentially, there is documentary proof stating that the land in question is not defence land.  Considering that some of the Defence officers are being accused of “falsely indicating that the Adarsh Society land is not Defence land”, where does the case stand against them today?

To make matters even clearer, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) also filed an affidavit in the Mumbai High Court in January 2011 asserting that the construction of the 31-storey Adarsh Society tower was legal, even with a higher floor space index (FSI) owing to the special Development Control Regulations (DCR) applicable to the Backbay Reclamation area.

Significantly, not just Adarsh, but even other buildings in the area could use a FSI as high as 3.5. However, Adarsh has used only 1.32, whereas the rest of South Mumbai is allowed an FSI of 1.33.

In its affidavit, the MMRDA has also justified the issuance of OC (Occupancy Certificate) on the grounds that it did not find any flouting of rules. It has also averred that it found nothing wrong with the clearance and permission for Adarsh Society.

A number of supporting documents such as copies of the Coastal Zone Management Plan (CZMP) and Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) related clearances given to the Adarsh Society were also attached to the MMRDA’s affidavit. Pertinently, the Chief Minister as the current MMRDA Chairman has assured justice in the case.

The bogey of security of up to 1000 mtrs from sensitive Defence installations raised by the MoD has also been burst by its own admission in its affidavit. The MoD has now ordered a Board of officers to initiate procedures for declaring the Adarsh Society land under the Works of Defence Act of 1903.

Defence personnel wonder if this would ever come through in retrospect, because then the Tata’s Taj Hotel and host of other high-rise buildings which directly overlook the entire Naval Base including movement of all warships in-and-out, and the residence of the Flag-Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Western Naval Command, would have to be evacuated.

Incidentally, the Adarsh Society building is nowhere near the Naval Base and is, in fact, echeloned in depth, overlooking distribution of rations from the Naval and Army Supply Depots. Can any one call this a grave security threat?

Questionably, why didn’t the authorities raise any objections when the Society published a Public Notice for commencement of construction and had invited objections if any, in the Free Press and Navshakti on 19 Oct 2005?

Moreover, the Navy has only woken up now to save its own skin. Why didn’t successive FOC-in-Cs of the Western Naval Command raise any security concerns since 2005, when the construction commenced? It should have also objected to all the high-rise buildings around the Naval Base.

Equally shocking, why hasn’t the Navy taken action all these years to remove the thousands of slums next to the Navy Nagar complex and those next to its helicopter base in Colaba, which is used by civil and defence VIPs? What to speak of residential towers in Adarsh’ vicinity? Incidentally, these high-rise buildings were also private housing societies for service officers mostly from the Navy.  

Pertinently, why is it wrong for Army officers to apply for a flat in a Government approved/ registered/ private society for which members have paid for the land and construction costs (purportedly belonging to the State Govt), when the membership of each member has been duly approved by the Govt?

The media therefore must act more responsibly before casting aspersions on any individual/organisation/society. Undoubtedly, research should be undertaken to authenticate the truth instead of sensationalising the issue. ---- INFA

(Copyright India News & Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 27 April 2011

Vocational Training

KEY TO NATION’S ECONOMY

By Suraj Saraf

A big push to vocational training is in the offing. Whereby, a Group of State Education Ministers (GOM) will be constituted this month. The GOM will suggest ways for strengthening vocational education at all levels and develop a broad consensus on the contours of the proposed National Vocational Education Qualifications Framework (NVEQF).

At a meeting chaired by the Union HRD Minister Kapil Sibal to discuss policy reforms in vocational education and to put in place a framework held recently it mooted urgent imperatives for vocational training. Earlier expressing concern over the lack of respect for vocational education, Sibal called for a need to change this mindset as “vocational education was the key towards improving the country’s economy”.

Addressing a seminar on “Education Reforms, Opportunities and Road Map Ahead” organized by the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi Chambers of Commerce in New Delhi, the HRD Minister emphasized, “often the stigma attached by society towards vocational education dissuades parents from allowing their wards to pursue the stream.”

Adding, “To build a particular expertise the industry should come forward and ask the Ministry to set up higher education institutes in particular place where such expertise is required. For increasing investment in this sector significantly, we are trying to set up on Educational Finance Corporation to help investments in education, for re-financing facilities on long term on vary low rates on priority. Education implies expansion, inclusion and excellence”, he asserted.

In regard to the enrolment rate in India vis-à-vis developed countries, Minister Sibal said that to reach the western standard rate of 40 per cent, India required additional 1000 universities and 45,000 colleges, “It is a gargantuan task. What we need is not help in building a few universities but a large scale investment in the next 10 to 20 years,” he underscored for good measure.

This is not all. The HRD Minister also highlighted that the States support the measure. Said he, “it is important that State Ministers support us in our endeavour. If we want to prepare fifty crore children for employment by 2022, which is a national priority, then both the States and the Centre have to work together and industry should also cooperate.”

Whereby, the Vocational framework would set common principles and guidelines for a nationally recognized qualification system, covering schools, vocational education institutions and institutes of higher education with qualifications ranging from higher secondary to doctorates level, leading to international recognition of national standards.

The framework would be a competency based modular approach with provision for credit accumulation and transfer. Students would have the scope for vertical and horizontal mobility entry and exit.

Importantly, all seemed to concur with the view that educational institutions could allow their premises to be used after working hours for skill development. Moreover, to ensure the widest possible consensus on the issue, the meeting was attended by representatives from 17 States including Ministers and Secretaries, heads of the University Grants Commission (UGC), All India Council Technical Education (AICTE), Indira Gandhi National Open University (IGNOU), National Council for Educational Research & Training (NCERT), National University of Educational Planning and Administration (NUEPA), Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSC) and National Institute of  Open Schooling (NIOS) and representatives from Skill Development Corporation.

Further, the HRD Ministry had also consulted several sectors on the vocational education curriculum. Among these are industry associations like ASSOCHAM, Confederation of Indian Industry and Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry.

Meanwhile the President of the Australia-India Council John McCarthy emphasized that encouraging Indian students to go to Australia for quality education than pursuing subjects linked to personal residency, building on the ongoing research collaboration in science and technology and bringing vocational training expertise to India were areas Australia should concentrate.

“If as a result of our quality education, these students are eligible to stay in Australia, that’s fine. But the main purpose is that they get quality education that they can go back with the skills to their country,” he stressed.

This apart, McCarthy noted that there was a considerable fall in the number of Indian students going to Australia since suspected racial attacks on some of them but, he argued, that the numbers really did not matter. Australia was bound to give quality education to foreign students who sought it. He promised that the Australia-India Council would encourage more science and technology research, an area where significant cooperation is already on.

Pertinently, since its inception in 2006, the Australia-Indian Strategic Research Fund had supported more than 70 joint projects, involving research and institutions in both countries, in renewable energy, nano technology, agricultural research and bio-technology.

In addition, McCarthy called for greater mutual engagement in vocational education but cautioned it was not about bringing people to Australia to study vocational courses. According to him, it would be better if Australian vocational techniques were brought to India. As it was not only more economical but also that the Indian Government acknowledges they were pertinent and interesting.

According to the Australian Consul General in Chennai, David Holly, efforts by both countries were on to identify areas of skill shortage in India so as to strengthen collaboration in the vocational sector.

Referring to the mining sector, he said that the huge market growing between 8 and 9 per cent meant that there were huge opportunities for foreign traders and businesses ‘particularly for Australia in the mining sector”.

Interestingly, India was Australia’s third biggest export market, he averred. “It could benefit from Australia’s capacity in other areas such as food shortage and even the financial sector. Given the fact that Australia’s financial sector is stronger than commonly imagined. Towards that end, both countries would focus science, sports and culture as the Australia-India Council marks its 20^th anniversary in 2012. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)