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Glitter Is Not Gold: FM’s DATA, REALITY VARIES, By Shivaji Sarkar, 11 December 2023 |
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Economic Highlights
New Delhi, 11 December 2023
Glitter
Is Not Gold
FM’s
DATA, REALITY VARIES
By
Shivaji Sarkar
Union Finance Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman has projected a promising economy that could take the country to a
path of glory with huge capital expenditure and rising deficits that is
showcased politically to charm the voters. She was partially correct during a
short duration discussion on the state of the economy in the Rajya Sabha. But
despite efforts, deficits remain high, exports drop, rupee slides and
government measures such as high cess on petrol, rechristened additional excise
duties, and tolls have not added to the ease of the people.
Occasional growth, such as in
the second quarter of the year at 7.6 percent being termed as India being the
fastest-growing major economy may cheer up countrymen, but it is not a solution
to the overall economic situation. Despite increase in estimated GDP to Rs
41.74 lakh crore in 2023-24, against Rs 38.78 lakh crore last fiscal or 6.2
percent, the Reserve Bank of India’sgrowth estimates remain unchanged at 6.5
percent in September quarter.
India’s growth is not constant
but seasonal, often to cater to the festive mood. Most world economies are
taking corrective steps before that. It seems as per the RBI, an economy is on
fire facing persistent threat of food inflation and severe constriction on farm
level prices, both considered extremes. It calls for easing of policies
and firming of the dollar that makes imports expensive.
The minister compared
achievements with developed countries and their growth. The Indian economy
despite its large size has yet to match the growth parameters of France,
Germany, UK, the US or China, though many of them are in slowdown. Their
economies are larger. Even a small growth is substantial than what India could
achieve.
Much of the inflation is
because of government policies such as maintaining high petrol prices despite a
longer period of soft international prices. Despite Israel-Gaza or
Russia-Ukraine wars, the crude oil prices have slumped to $70 a barrel and may
fall further as western economies, particularly the US sees a glut of oil owing
to the slowdown. Instead of a demand of 2 million barrels, it remains at
594,000 barrels. The slowing global economy is impacting Indian exports.
While the benefits of low oil
prices are not being passed on to the consumers in India, it has led to an inflationary
economy. The Indian GST is high. Organisations such as the National Highway
Authority of India (NHAI), have taken advantage to jack up road toll rates
atrociously. Toll collections have increased to Rs 48028 crore in 2022-23
from Rs 33907 crore last year and Rs 17942 crore in 2017-18. This is hurting
the economy, including farmers’ input and transportation costs, according to
the Statista site.
Since July 2022, the government
has reduced petrol cess on exports of Reliance and Nyara but none for the poor
domestic consumers. It remains at Rs 32.90 per litre of diesel and petrol.
Petro road cess collection was Rs 4.55 lakh crore in 2020-21 as per a reply in
the Rajya Sabha by Minister of State Rameshwar Teli. By 2023, it can be assumed
to have risen further. There is now a diversion of funds from the cess for
other purposes.
Allocations for education and
health have been cut and insurance premia allowed to rise by 30 percent.Farmers
finding prices unremunerative have been destroying many vegetable crops,
including cauliflower, onion and tomato during the season, though prices of
many commodities spiralled in the retail market.
The Opposition charged the
government with being cut off from the ground realities during the discussion
following a notice from TMC’s Derek O’Brien. Former Finance Minister P
Chidambaram said it was “jobless growth”. Ram Gopal Yadav of Samajwadi Party alleged
the ruling members were only indulging in propaganda and publicity. Of 194
nations, India is at 133 in the growth index even though it is the fifth
largest economy. AITC’s Jawhar Sircar said in 2022 India’s youth unemployment
rate was 23.22 per cent, which was even higher than 11.3 per cent of Pakistan,
12.9 per cent in Bangladesh and 14.4 percent of Bhutan.
Sitharaman says that
investments in infrastructure and productive capacity have a larger multiplier
effect on growth and employment. The 2023-24 Union Budget steeply increased the
capital expenditure outlay by 37.4 percent to Rs 10 lakh crore. It is being
spent to demolish government buildings, railways stations, National Museum,
National Archives and others.
This apart, reckless
constructions of roads and other supposed infrastructure have had a heavy toll
in the Himalayan states facing severe devastation. Various construction lobbies
are preventing the government from reviewing vast delicate areas in
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and northeastern parts of the country, including
the newly built railways and sinking of Halflong rail stations. Himachal has
demanded over Rs 5000 crore to mitigate the damages.
While periodic renovation of
buildings is necessary, rebuilding for the sake of it without a discussion with
the people or other stakeholders necessarily does not mean that it would
achieve the stated objective. The supposed rail upgradation to Vande Bharat and
ignoring the usual trains again made the Railways go back to basics and restore
the number of general coaches and improve upkeep of ordinary sleeper bogeys.
The Railways are also realising that dynamic fare disrupts the lives of average
travellers and creates a myth about higher earnings.
The Budget notes that revenue
expenditure is estimated to grow by 1.2 percent at Rs. 35.02 lakh crore in
2023-24 over Rs. 34.59 lakh crore. Major components of revenue expenditure
include interest payments, defence revenue expenditure, and transfers to States
in the form of Finance Commission grants, centrally sponsored schemes, etc.
Grants to Central autonomous bodies are a substantial part of the Central sector
schemes.
Sitharaman says India’s
national debt has increased from $1595 billion in 2018 to $3288 billion in 2023
and projected to rise to $4816 billion by 2028. Outstanding government debt and
other liabilities are rising to Rs 169.46 lakh crore in March 2024 from Rs
152.69 lakh crore in March 2023. Though this is considered manageable, its
servicing costs are high. The government needs to review various projects for
their utility. Interest payments are estimated to be Rs 10.80 lakh crore, 30.8
percent of the total revenue expenditure. The fiscal policy statement
highlighted the total expenditure as Rs. 45.03 lakh crore in 2023-24; increase
of 7.5 percent over 2022-23. The states are to get about Rs 10.21 lakh crore.
Despite India growing at a
better pace than Pakistan and Sri Lanka, neighbouring Bangladesh and Vietnam
have overtaken it!---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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Cong Results & INDIA Bloc: WB, BIHAR EYE OPPORTUNITY, By Insaf, 9 December 2023 |
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Round The States
New
Delhi, 9 December 2023
Cong Results & INDIA Bloc
WB, BIHAR EYE OPPORTUNITY
By Insaf
The losses
in four States, especially in Hindi heartland of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya
Pradesh for the Congress should not only make it but the INDIA bloc partners to
think and think seriously and aloud. For there’s no time for bickering or blame
game as heard soon after the results were out. Some parties had their knives
pointed at Congress, though not openly. Importantly, two Chief Ministers, West
Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee and Bihar’s Nitish Kumar seem to have seen an
opportunity. The two appear to have gone into top gear and consider themselves
now steering the Opposition ship. Working on seat-sharing agreements must be the
top of the agenda for the bloc is what Mamata has insisted upon for the next
meeting to be held later this month. Recently, Congress President Kharge’s
invite for the 4th bloc meeting this week had few takers. Seat-sharing
formula must be top priority and it must be a 1:1 fight with the BJP, it has
insisted. Besides, candidates must be given sufficient time for campaigning and
gauging the situation on the ground for battle 2024 ahead, only months away.
The
TMC’s opinion was shared at a meeting of Opposition leaders this week to work
out strategy for the ongoing Parliament winter session. Upset about the halt of
meetings due to Congress being preoccupied and partners fighting against each
other in these polls, sending a wrong message, the party has also sought ‘establishing
a collective narrative and finalising the manifesto to mount a credible
challenge against BJP’. Likewise, the JD(U) is
seeking to gain importance with Congress debacle. The party is suggesting that
Nitish Kumar be made the ‘convenor’ of the INDIA bloc as his image makes
him ‘the best fit.’ And more so as he would match up to Modi! The Congress is
upset and out alright but certainly not down. It argues that though it was
defeated in these three states its vote share has been intact. Well, the bloc
must weigh the option ahead: should it cry over spilt milk or rather should it
be safe than sorry!
* * * *
Telangana
Challenge
Telangana
has the Congress finally in and BRS out. With the “people’s mandate” going the
former’s way, on Thursday last it installed its state party chief, A Revanth
Reddy, as its first Chief Minister, with Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka as Deputy.
Ousted CM and BRS chief, KCR was not only stopped him from hitting a hat trick
but his plans too of becoming a national leader by changing the party name from
TRS. While he becomes history, the going is tough for Revanth Reddy as the
burden of fulfilling the party’s ‘six guarantees’, is far too heavy with the
state said to be reeling under a debt of Rs 5 lakh crore. The guarantees,
having got the go-ahead include, free travel for women in state run buses
(under Rs 6000 crore losses) which will cost Rs 2,500 crore annually; Rs 2 lakh
farm loan waiver will cost at least Rs 35,000 lakh crore for next five years
for 42 lakh farmers; Rs 15,000 to farmers and Rs 12,000 to farm workers under
Rythu Bharosa guarantee scheme per acre annually will cost Rs 1 lakh crore!
Will Prime Minister Modi’s X post “…I assure all possible support to further
progress of the state and citizens welfare” give some hope? The answer needs no
guessing.
* * * *
Rajasthan
Drama
Nagging suspense
lingers in the three Hindi heartland States over who will be their BJP chief
ministers. Amidst this wait and watch, intriguing attempts are being made for
the hot seat in Rajasthan particularly, with senior BJP leader and two-time Chief
Minister Vasundhara Raje camping in Delhi. While she claimed she came ‘to visit
my daughter-in-law,’ over 60 of the newly elected MLAs have met her at her
residence in past 48 hours. Guess, a show of strength is the message, but efforts
in Jaipur may turn out controversial. Such as father of an MLA Lalit Meena has
claimed his son along with four others had been ‘confined in a resort’ by
Raje's son MP Dushyant Singh on Thursday last, after h had brought them to meet
Raje. However, he managed to get all five to leave the resort after party organisational
secretary and others were informed. Raje is among the frontrunners for the CM
post, with names of Diya Kumari, Mahat Balak Nath, and Rajyavarardhan Singh
Rathore doing the rounds. Raje would be well versed with the saying there can
be many a slip between the cup and the lip.
* * * *
Mizo
Clean Slate
It’s not
just a clean sweep victory but wiping out the Mizo National Front (MNF) and the
Congress which ruled the border state of Mizoram for four decades. The Zoram
People’s Movement (ZPM) with chief Lalduhoma, former police officer, who served
as in-charge of former prime minister Indira Gandhi’s security, took over the
reins of power on Friday last, winning 27 of the 40-seat Assembly. The ZPM’s
USP: young voters (62%), promising a corruption-free alternative and a “new
system” of “administrative reforms, land reforms, economic reforms”. Incumbent
Chief Minister Zoramthanga submitted his resignation to not just the Governor
but also the party as its president after a 33-year-long stint on Tuesday last,
taking moral responsibility for the debacle. The MNF, in existence for over 60
years, which won only 10 seats now, refused to accept his resignation. The
Congress, which had ruled the State for 25 years, managed to win only one seat
and the BJP just two. Importantly, 9 of the 11 MNF ministers who contested the
polls lost. Jubilation in the ZPM camp alright, but will it able to deliver is
a million dollar question.
* * * *
Southern
Cyclone
Cyclone
Michuang has played havoc with Tamil Nadu’s capital, Chennai and suburbs in
adjoining districts. Other than death and destruction, sadly it opened the
floodgates for the Opposition to hit out at ruling DMK, accusing it of poor relief
work. The AIADMK particularly questioned Stalin government’s claim of
implementing a Rs 4,000 crore storm water drain project in the city as ‘of
35,000 key interior roads under the city corporation, 20,000 were still
inundated.’ It demanded a white paper be released, but the denial mode came
into play. “Relief work was expedited; efforts to pump out stagnant water were
on; drinking water, milk, milk powder, bedsheets and food were dispatched to
affected areas,’ claimed the government. Importantly, it sought interim relief
of Rs 5,060 crore from Centre, detailing the damage caused ‘in northern
districts of Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kancheepuram and Chengalpet viz roads,
bridges, public buildings and livelihood of lakhs of people affected. A detailed
report will follow and additional funds would be sought, said Stalin’s letter
to Prime Minister Modi on Tuesday last. It further sought a central team be
sent to assess the damage. Will New Delhi oblige?---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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India’s Foreign Policy: FROM NON TO MULTI-ALINGMENT!, By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri, 8 December 2023 |
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Round The World
New
Delhi, 8 December 2023
India’s Foreign Policy
FROM NON TO MULTI-ALINGMENT!
By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
(Secretary General, Assn for Democratic Socialism)
The
erudite and articulate foreign affairs minister S Jaishankar has of late been stressing
the multi-polarity in world politics that requires a multi-alignment approach.
Probably he means that configuration of world powers has drastically changed
causing a few global powers emerging on the scene. So non-alignment between two
blocks in a bipolar world as it was, should give way to engaging with various
power centres. This certainly merits a deeper evaluation. Interestingly, the
foreign policy for the first in recent years, such as the success of G-20 in
New Delhi, became a campaign point in the recent State elections.
Foreign
policy of any country is essentially a manifestation of its national
imperatives. They are defined by international political observers,
commentators, academics and diplomats as determinants, objectives, principles and
national interests. India’s foreign policy, likewise, has been shaped by and
has evolved as reflection of such priorities, and more important, in response
to the prevalent world order.
The
evolution of India’s foreign policy since 1947 till date could be divided into
several phases in various ways. Let us take two formats for segmenting India’s
foreign policy. One is to divide it into six phases. The first phase (1947-62)
could be described as optimistic Non-Alignment. India got independence in 1947,
two years after the end of Second World War when international politics got
divided into two camps – one led by the US and the other by the former Soviet
Union. India was wary of the Western powers which were colonisers and wanted to
stay away from them.
Strategically
also, India did not wish to belong to any camp. The independent stance stemmed
from its long and gruelling freedom struggle. Thus, India founded the Non-Alignment
Movement (NAM) in 1961, which, in a way, was the zenith of solidarity in the Third
World which was getting decolonised. However, the 1962 war with China changed
that position as India had to seek military help from US and Britain.
The unexpected
war with China and its consequence led to the second phase of Realism and
Reorganising (1962-71). New Delhi had to look beyond Non-Alignment in the
interest of national security, concluding a now largely forgotten defence
agreement with the US in 1964. Later, India faced pressures from the US and UK
on Kashmir. At the same time, Pakistan was becoming an ally of the United
States. New Delhi then perforce had to tilt towards the Soviet Union which led
to the third phase.
The
third phase (1971-91) consisted of India’s assertion as a regional power based
on self-reliance. India showed remarkable strategic autonomy and use of hard
power in liberating East Pakistan (Bangladesh) in 1971 war against Pakistan. The
emergence of US-China-Pakistan axis posed multiple challenges for India.
Recognising the security risks, New Delhi signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty
with Soviet Union. Geo-political and domestic upheavals in 1990s necessitated a
strategic shift in India’s foreign policy. The Gulf War (1991-91), the collapse
of the Soviet Union (1991) and the economic stagnation at home causing a
balance of payment crisis led India to rethink its foreign policy.
The
fourth phase, safeguarding the strategic autonomy (1991-98) came into play. The
strategic autonomy manifested conspicuously in exercising its nuclear option
(Pokhran-II) in 1998. The emergence of the US as a sole super power also
prompted India to change its course. India reached out to engage with the US,
Israel and Asean countries.
In the
fifth phase (1998-2013), India acquired the attributes of a balancing power and
began to be seen as the counterweight to China, a new economic power. This
recognition could be reflected in India-US Nuclear Agreement in 2008. At the
same time, India maintained its traditional ties with Russia and made ‘common
cause’ with China in BRICS and SCO.
The
sixth phase turned India to multi-alignment (2013-till now). This current
strategy emanates from India’s self-realisation of its capabilities and geo-political
significance in the existing world politics influenced largely by rise and
threat of China. To name a few of India’s power-indicators; it is one of the
major world economies (fifth largest), a big technology power (software),
global player in certain major issues like climate change (Paris Agreement),
anti-terrorism (peace-broker) and a regional power – SAGAR, Act East, BIMSTEC,
QUAD, and so on.
The
second format phasing India’s foreign policy consists of three strategies. Nehruvian
idealism (1947-62); during this period, India regarded ethics and rule-based
order as the guiding principles enshrined in the international institutions. That
is why perhaps India took the Kashmir dispute to the United Nations, signed the
Panchsheel Agreement with China (remember Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai mood
sweeping across the country), built NAM which was marked by anti-imperialism,
anti-colonialism and anti-racism.
The war
with China changed dramatically India’s foreign policy. New Delhi shifted to
strategic realism (1962-1991). In this phase, India gave shelter to Dalai Lama
to the chagrin of China; India was critical of US action in Vietnam, India
liberated Bangladesh in 1971, sent troops to Sri Lanka (IPKF) to quell the
Tamil separatist movement, although on hindsight, it was a strategic mistake.
In the third
phase following the foreign currency crisis in 1991, India embraced the policy
of economic pragmatism, which primarily meant focussing on India’s growth and
development. Following such strategy, India did business with China despite the
lingering border disputes, continued arms trade and other imports from Russia
despite latter’s decline as a world power and falling out with US, carried on trade
even with Pakistan although to a less volume than before. New Delhi negotiated both
with Israel and adversarial Arab States.
From the
historical overview of India’s foreign policy, I would like to draw two broad
distinct phases in terms of strategy, one non-alignment and the other,
multi-alignment. It is to be noted that non-alignment was sought to be worked
into “genuine Non-Alignment for a brief period, two-and-half years under Janata
Party rule (1977-79)”. It is also worth noting that the Latin American
countries seem to be emulating India’s non-aligned strategy re-christening it
as “active Non-Alignment” which partly shaped their reactions to the war in
Ukraine.
This
policy emerged in 2019 and is still being laid out as a framework of their
foreign policy in response to the challenges posed by US-China competition. It
means not accepting a priori position of any of great power in conflict.
The term ‘active’ refers to a foreign policy in constant search of
opportunities, a kind of nimble approach.
In
India’s journey from non-alignment to multi-alignment, is there any room for
re-alignment? Recognising the popular aphorism, “people become wiser after the
event”, non-alignment was a flawed policy from the word go. If Nehru wanted to
stay away from Western powers, why did he stay in the Commonwealth which was
created and headed by Britain? In a world, in which countries are
inter-dependent as well as antagonistic, it was not feasible to be non-aligned.
The non-viability of the strategy was exposed many times in India’s conduct of
its foreign policy – 1956 (invasion of Hungary), 1962 (China war), 1968 (attack
on Czechoslovakia), 1971 (post-Bangladesh war) and so on.
Multi-alignment
is stating the obvious. No country can function in isolation. Politics is
global although strategies in actions are national. Multi-alignment as a
strategy seems nebulous; it needs to be clearly defined. Going with everyone
conceptually appears to be confusing two potential allies, actual friends and
partners. What is therefore needed is re-alignment in India’s foreign policy in
keeping with its long-term national interests. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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Regional Imbalance: WILL FINANCE PANEL BRIDGE GAP?, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 6 December 2023 |
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Open Forum
New Delhi, 6 December 2023
Regional Imbalance
WILL FINANCE PANEL BRIDGE GAP?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The BJP’s
victory in three states appears to suggest the promise of development via
‘double engine’ sarkar has takers. And the timing should make the task of the 16th
Finance Commission, recently recommended by the Union Cabinet to be set up,
easier. It is to decide on sharing of taxes between the states and Centre. States
are entitled to 41% share of the divisible pool, which comprises all taxes,
excluding the cesses and surcharges. However, they have been demanding a larger
share of the pie, arguing they are burdened by many schemes announced by the
Centre. On its part, the Centre believes it’s funding several schemes, such as
health and education is part of the States’ mandate. The difference of opinion
may steadily disappear now.
The existence
of regional imbalance in India cannot be denied as there has not been balanced
development. As in the case of literacy and educational attainment, where the
states of southern India are far ahead than others, similarly in financial
matters, states in the western part as well as Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the south
are stronger than their counterparts. The pace of growth in the two southern
states and in Maharashtra and Gujarat has been phenomenal in recent years and
experts believe their performance may be even better in the coming years.
The per
head income of states such as West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha is far
below the national average. In fact, the per head income of Bengal has been one
of the lowest in the country in 2022-23 at Rs 141,373 whereas in Telangana,
Karnataka and Haryana it’s more than double. These are indicative of regional
imbalances in economic development. The Centre’s strategy of tackling this has
not been successful enough and India suffers from a strategy of balanced
economic development.
Prior to
liberalisation, the Centre’s efforts yielded some results with the economic
emergence of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh (undivided), and Haryana and helped the
hilly and smaller states to stand on their own. But presently, the government
has hardly any means of restricting regional imbalances. If is left on the
market forces and in all likelihoodimbalances in the standard of living of
people in different states shall reach a crisis proportion. By 2047, some
states will be as prosperous as some East European nations while most others
will be comparable to some central African nations.
According
to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimate, the average GDP per head
in India, based on purchasing power parity, was $9,073 in 2023 which came to
around Rs 213,215. It is indeed distressing to note that an emerging country
like India ranks 127th and is in the league of small and virtually
unnoticed nations like Laos (125), Cape Verde (126) and Bangladesh (128).
Undeniably,
in the coming years some parts of the country will be more equal than others
due to the uneven nature of development. An average person in Telangana, Karnataka
or Goa will be having more or less a similar standard like those living in the
west, comparable to say today’s Hungary or Croatia. Thus, the relative differences
in the economic conditions of different states will be more differential than
what it is today.
The
present determination to make India the third largest economy of the world
after the US and China is obviously a positive development. India’s per capita
GDP increased from $442 in 2000 to $2389 in 2022, which is considered quite
impressive. But what has been of great concern is the widening inequality in
incomes along with regional, spatial and gender disparities. Unless the laggard
states can increase their incomes, even if the achievement becomes a reality,
the development would not be balanced.
India’s
human development index, which is a composite of incomes, health and education,
has been falling rapidly. The nation’s current rank is 132 among 191 countries,
which indeed is quite shameful since India is aspiring to be among the top
nations of the world. A recent UNDP report found that India’s economic
inequalities in wealth and income to be among the highest in the world, which
obviously goes against the concept of inclusive growth. Regionally, states
comprising 45 percent of the population contain 62 percent of the poor.
Thus, the
importance of the 16th Finance Commission comes into play.
Obviously, the poorer states would be given a larger chunk of funds compared to
the performing ones but this strategy, adopted by the earlier Finance Commission,
hasn’t yielded expected results. The high growth states continue to make rapid
strides in their incomes while only Odisha has shown some promise among the
poor states.
Economic
justice demands that the Finance Commission allocate tax proceeds in such a way
that the rich states subsidise the poor. Then there is the Backward Region
Grant Fund (BRGF) which is implemented in 272 identified backward
districts in all states to redress regional development imbalances. Besides, there’s
the Pradhan Mantri Khanij Kshetra Kalyan Yojana (PMKKKY), launched in
September 2015 for the welfare of tribals and tribal areas and others affected
by mining. But all these have not had any significant impact in boosting up the
said incomes.
India’s
geographical diversity and different levels of development across regions mean
that location specific targeted action would be required in less
prosperous regions to ensure a minimum acceptable level of prosperity. The NITI
Aayog has aThree-Year Action Agenda which underlined specific action for north
Himalayan states, North-Eastern states, coastal regions and islands, desert and
drought prone areas. There is obviously the need for implementing this action
plan in a diligent and judicious manner.
The
belief that giving more funds to the poor states would result in a shift in the
composition of India’s GDP away from agriculture has not become a reality as movement
of labour from agriculture and from rural to urban areas has not taken shape. Thus,
the inequality among states remains a big challenge, which needs to be
seriously looked into and, it would be better, if the responsibility is given
to the Finance Commission to suggest ways of improving the per capita income of
the laggard states.
Making
agriculture more lucrative through value-addition and setting up agro-based
industries may need to be considered. Though there may not be much scope for
large-scale industrialisation and thrust on manufacturing in some states, they
could concentrate on agro-based and cottage industries as also various types of
ancillary products which may have a lucrative export market. Additionally, the
electronics and IT sector could set up small hubs in various states as well small
pharma manufacturing centres to meet regional demands.
Economists
and financial analysts are unanimous that merely providing funds will not help,
unlessit’s supported by a plan, which the laggard states may be advised to
follow. Accordingly, there’s anurgent need to frame some mechanism to boost
incomes of the non-performing states and bridge the gap.---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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WANTED: OPPOSITION THAT WORKS, By Inder Jit, 5 December 2023 |
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REWIND
New Delhi, 5 December
2023
WANTED: OPPOSITION
THAT WORKS
By Inder Jit
(Released on 23 June
1981)
The Opposition has
none but itself to blame for coming to grief once again. It seems to have
learnt nothing and unlearnt nothing from its bitter experience. The final
results of the recent by-elections show that the Opposition parties could have
done a lot better if only these had come to some understanding between
themselves. In UP alone, the Opposition together polled more votes than the
Congress (I) in three Lok Sabha seats: Allahabad, Bareilly and Mirzapur. But it
had lost the battle even before the first shot was fired. Mrs. Gandhi need not
have taken the trouble she took to campaign for her party candidates. But as
India’s shrewdest politician she understood the importance of the by-elections
and went all out to win them. Psychologically, triumph at the polls was vital
for her. Prices have spurted all round since she returned to power. Law and
order situation has deteriorated. Unemployment has continued to mount. It was,
therefore, imperative for her to prove that the people still have faith in her.
And, there is no viable alternative to the Congress (I) yet.
The Opposition’s
latest poll debacle has brought together the leaders of the Lok Dal, Congress
(U), Bharatiya Janata Party and Janata Party --- at least in issuing a joint
statement. Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Devaraj Urs, Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr.
Madhu Dandwate have asserted that “the age of free democratic elections is
over” and it was time for all those committed to the democratic process to sit
up and take serious note. “Unlimited and unimaginable amounts of money,”
according to them, had been distributed in the by-elections which were also
marked by “blatant misuse of government machinery and police, wholesale
rigging, booth capturing and unabashed violence.” Further, for the first time
in free India, the Prime Minister had canvassed in the by-elections, broken a
convention and “intimidated” the electorate. All in all, the Congress (I) had
“gone to any extent” to ensure its victory and thereby sown the “seeds of
anarchy” and made a “mockery of parliamentary democracy.”
The charges are grave
and unprecedented. Significantly, the CPI General Secretary, Mr. Rajeswara Rao,
too, has accused the Congress (I) of “blatant misuse of official machinery,
violation of all democratic norms and values, use of money power and
goondaism.” Many of these charges will require to be checked for veracity. One
thing alone is established. Mrs. Gandhi violated what she herself described as
a convention by campaigning in the by-elections. Some apologists for the ruling
party have argued that it was not realistic to expect the Congress (I) to go to
the polls without its star vote-catcher canvassing for votes. Yet, the fact
remains that the Prime Minister’s campaign at a time when the Congress (I) is
enjoying a big majority at the Centre and in UP and elsewhere amounted to
telling the voters: Vote for the Congress (I) or else. The convention ensures
what the Constitution provides: a poll which is not only free and fair but also
without fear! Nehru upheld it boldly and refrained from campaigning, for
instance, in the Lok Sabha by-elections from Amroha, Kannauj and Rajkot in 1963
even though he wanted to keep Acharya Kripalani, Dr. Lohia and Mr. Masani out.
Nevertheless, a
question that needs to be put to Mr. Charan Singh, Mr. Urs, Mr. Vajpayee, Mr.
Dandwate and Mr. Rajeswara Rao and their parties is: why could they not see
what was possibly coming and take appropriate, advance measures to prevent
blatant misuse of machinery and much else that is alleged? Why could they not act
in time --- and why must they only react? The post-event statements of the five
leaders appear to have been issued mainly on the basis of many grave
allegations made by Mr. H.N. Bahuguna in regard to the by-election in
Pauri-Garhwal. Yet one fact stands out. Mr. Bahuguna had warned the country
days before the poll of what might happen in his constituency. Sadly enough, no
one took any serious notice of these warnings --- notice which could surely
have been taken by the Opposition parties singly or unitedly irrespective of
their personal attitude towards the controversial Mr. Bahuguna.
What could the
Opposition have done? The answer is not far to seek, as shown by a pre-poll
consensus among some thinking people anxious to strengthen our young democracy.
The Opposition, it was agreed, could have responded meaningfully to Mr.
Bahuguna’s virtual S.O.S. by dispatching a top-level team of observers
representing various parties to see things for themselves in Pauri-Garhwal
prior to the polling and on the poll day itself. In addition, the parties could
have associated with such a team non-party and non-power seeking organizations
such as Citizens for Democracy, Voters’ Council, Gandhi Peace Foundation and
Lok Sevak Sangh. The other words, the principal Opposition parties now wailing
over the alleged happenings in Pauri-Garhwal could have ensured that the vote
was free and fair irrespective of their attitude towards Mr. Bahuguna. It was
clearly for these proclaimed democrats to show what they stood for: an equal chance
at the polls to even one’s worst opponent.
The Opposition’s
characteristic failure to respond in time to the developing situation in
Pauri-Garhwal goes to the heart of the matter. (Mr. Bahuguna’s statements and
the alleged threat to his life are only one part of the story. Pauri-Garhwal
witnessed before the poll an incredible star-spangled show by the Congress (I):
Six State Chief Ministers and two score and more of other Ministers were
campaigning at one time in addition to Mrs. Gandhi). The Opposition must
realize that its approach to the public, by and large, leaves a great deal to
be desired. First things are not being tackled first. The Opposition today
lacks the people’s confidence as never before. In 1977, the common man asserted
his power and gave the Opposition a chance to prove its mettle. But this
opportunity was recklessly thrown away. Worse, the lesson of 1980 has not been
learnt. Its leaders have done little to rebuild their credibility and show they
are now putting the country before self.
Annual party sessions,
occasional public meetings and press conferences have their importance.
Unfortunately, however, most Opposition leaders, like those of the Government,
often read more into the crowds at their meetings than is justified. The common
man turns up at these meetings mainly to give himself a break from his normal
dreary existence. The public meeting is for him essentially in the nature of a
mela or a tamasha, depending upon the weather and his mood --- and no index of
his commitment. (A veteran recalls Nehru once asking Bakshi Ghulam Mohd about
his following in Kashmir. Pat came the reply: “25 lakhs.” Nehru “What about
Sheikh Sahib?” The Bakshi replied “25 lakhs.” Puzzled, Nehru remarked: “I don’t
understand.” The Bakshi replied: “Our people flock to listen to whosoever is on
the platform!”) A question which thus arises is: Is the Opposition doing enough
to build its credibility and offer itself as a viable alternative to the
Congress (I)?
The answer on both
scores is regrettably a big “no”. True, the Opposition leaders swear by various
democratic norms and ideals. However, they seldom follow up their proclaimed
commitments through convincing deeds, as shown, for instance, by the case of
the CPM Ministries in West Bengal and Kerala. As everyone knows, the Jyoti and
the Nayanar Ministries are under attack. New Delhi could, if it so willed,
carry out the threat held out by some Central ministers on visits to Calcutta
and Trivandrum and topple the two Governments. But the Opposition leaders, barring
an exception or two, have done little to stand up for the basic principles that
must guide Centre-State relations ---- and make it clear that they would oppose
tooth and nail any unconstitutional attempt to cut short a lawfully elected
Government. The Opposition parties may have their differences with the CPM. But
these could be agitated separately. The important thing for the Opposition is
to carry conviction among the masses that it means what it says and, if
necessary, is even willing to shed blood for the other man’s right to disagree.
The Opposition parties
could easily take a leaf out of the British book once again and prove that it
means business as shown by its newly formed Socialist Democratic Party.
Although born yesterday, the SDP has decided to put up one of its leading
lights from Warrington in a bye-election to the Commons on July 16. The
constituency is known to be a Labour stronghold and, according to Mrs. Shirley
Williams, it would be “a miracle if the SDP wins.” Nevertheless the party has
put up the well-known Mr. Roy Jenkins for the poll to prove, according to the
London Times, “the seriousness of its challenge to the Labour and the
Conservative parties.” Adds the Times: And, Mr. Jenkins took no persuading that
the honour of appearing as the first standard-bearer properly fell to him.” Mr.
Jenkins, for his part, underlined the importance of the fight when he said:
“our sights as a party are very high. We want to show a way out from the old
debilitating politics of outdated dogmatism, remote from the thoughts of
ordinary people and encouragement of false class confrontation which have
bedeviled this country”.
In sharp contrast, the
Opposition in India is not only failing itself but also the country. Like the
SDP in the UK, it should have moved heaven and earth to put up prestige fights
at least in some seats to carry conviction among the people about their serious
intent to challenge the Congress (I). The BJP, which seems to be viewed as an
emerging alternative, could have surely come forward with some top-level
candidates just to register a point, even if the other parties were unwilling
to oblige. The Janata, too, has allowed its case to go by default. But all this
need not cause despair. As the saying goes, there is always another day. The
Metropolitan Council elections in Delhi, which are already overdue, offer
another opportunity to the Opposition. Again, the Opposition parties could come
together in Parliament and help restore their credibility through coordinated
functioning on major issues. In the final analysis, there is a crying need
today for an Opposition which not only stands for parliamentary democracy but
also an Opposition that works.---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
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