|
|
|
|
|
|
Job Quota A Poll Myth!: PVT HIRES MERE 2.5%, By Shivaji Sarkar, 20 May 2024 |
|
|
Economic
Highlights
New Delhi, 20 May 2024
Job Quota A Poll Myth!
PVT HIRES MERE 2.5%
By Shivaji Sarkar
In this dance of democracy,
scarce resources are seemingly rambling up the election tempo. Religious slant
on employment and sillier issues such as mangalsutra are raised for
diverting from the core issue that has as yet to be answered by the pre-poll
slogan of “We are the fifth largest economy”.
Are we not that large? Some
statistics say we are, but the country has tougher statistics to counter, such
as the difficult balance of payments and still more grim Manipur, the embattled
state, for the sheer failure of the provincial government has displaced over
67000 people during the last one year because of the ethnic conflict. There are
also reports that farmers plough into Punjab BJP’s poll campaign and express similar
wrath in Haryana as well. They tell a political party to be people friendly as
kisans too are not born for doles. Plus, it’s a national shame that Agniveers
on their death are not even given a salute.
Jobs not being there is the
reality. Urban joblessness has risen to 6.7 per cent from 6.5 per cent in March
2024. Male unemployment has jumped to 6.3 per cent from 5.8 per cent. Periodic
labour survey data is a clear pointer to a tough employment scenario. This is
reflected in the elections by the Bihar caste survey which indicates more difficult
situations for marginal castes, a detested reality. Caste denotes empowerment
as well as deprivation.
Would a Congress manifesto
professing over 50 per cent reservation serve the issue? The BJP contests it.
It is accused of wanting to rob reservations. This is repeatedly denied by RSS
chief Mohan Bhagwat.
No political party has answers
if jobs are not there, then how would a reservation help! The National
Commission for Backward Classes has warned both West Bengal and Punjab
governments for not “fully using the space available under the 50 per cent
ceiling for reservations for scheduled castes, tribes and backward classes and
OBCs”. It has asked West Bengal to
increase it by 5 per cent and Punjab 13 per cent as it finds that the former filled
up 45 per cent of the quota and the latter only 37 per cent. Worst may be
Arunachal Pradesh. Yet another sex racket is busted with eight government
officials among 21 arrested.
The International Labour
Organisation (ILO) finds 28 million men, women and children are in forced
labour due to cycle of poverty. Of these 63 per cent are in the private sector.
Forced labour generates $236 billion in illegal profits globally every year. “We now know that the situation has only got
worse. The international community must urgently come together to take action
to end this injustice,” says ILO Director General.
The report, titled ‘Profits
and poverty: The economics of forced labour’, also estimates that traffickers
and criminals are generating close to $10,000 per victim, up from $8,269
(adjusted for inflation) a decade ago. The survey also said that forced
commercial sexual exploitation contributes for more than two-thirds (73 per cent)
of overall illicit profits, despite accounting for only 27 per cent of all
victims in privately imposed work. “Total annual illegal profits from forced labour are
highest in Europe and Central Asia ($84 billion), followed by Asia, including
India, and the Pacific ($62 billion), the Americas ($52 billion), Africa ($20
billion), and the Arab States ($18 billion),” the report said.
The ILO cautions India. It has
also worked on the conditions of Indian labour in the Arab countries. In a
scenario, where people compromise with their dignity, the ILO doubts the
figures on India’s galloping progress. The supposed $3 trillion economy, highly
burdened with debt, has an annual repayment itself at over Rs 10.4 lakh crore.
Economic issues remain at the
forefront of the voters. Globally shrinking jobs, particularly in the IT sector,
have rattled many Indians. Political parties offering sops of reservations or
apprenticeship of Rs 1 lakh a year (approx. Rs 8000 plus a month) sells well
among the burgeoning numbers of jobless, who are already hit by one of the
highest inflations of 55 per cent in ten years.
It is not easy for them to manage it amid farmers’ distress and trade
deficit widening to a four-month high at $ 19.1 billion. Exports rise by one
per cent to $35 billion and imports to over 10 per cent to $ 54.1 billion. This
upsets the government calculations on the impending forex reserves.
How can the country therefore improve
the job scenario? The age-old move to wean the workers away from the farms has
failed. Still agriculture employs over 54 per cent of the Indian workers. The Nehruvian
economy created robust public sector organisation. In 1994-2000, PSUs employed
19.4 million (about 2 crore) people or 69 per cent of the total employed. The
other 31 per cent were employed in central and state governments. Some 3.4
million jobs were added to non-farm pay rolls and unemployment at 5.6 per cent
had fallen from 6.6 per cent.
In sharp contrast, in 2021-22,
PSU employment reduced to 8.61 lakh. And it is gradually reducing. According to
official statistics, employment in the organized sector is now a mere 8.34 per cent,
of which public sector accounts for 5.77 per cent and private sector only 2.58
per cent in the total employment generated.
The governments massive infra
investment of Rs 11 lakh crore this fiscal may have added some jobs in the
construction sector, but these short-term jobs are not considered quality work.
This apart, infra investments are subject to erosion in many ways, right from
excess cost estimation to longer gestation. So, the promise of reservation is
day dreaming. According to CMIE, employment in India increased by a mere 5.8
million till March 2023. An additional 119 million people were not added to the
potential labour force during the same. The estimates show that self-employment
has been the chief driver of the Indian job market, which was hit hard by
demonetisation, crushing a parallel self-sustained economy.
Election promises apart, the
country is in the grip of severe economic crisis. Ideally, more PSUs are
required to stop labour exploitation in the private sector as well as their
disinclination to create jobs. The Mahanavratna and Navratna industries were
doing well when most of these were axed or sabotaged like the Air India and HMT
to facilitate the growth of the private sector, which earned huge profits but
did not create jobs.
Reversing it would require
revival and reforming the Planning Commission and reshaping the economy in the
public sector where the private sector would have to compete on equal terms.
Reservations to benefit the deprived castes then only would yield results.
Would a revamp be possible?---INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
|
|
Voting Data Delay: INDIA BLOC-EC TUG OF WAR, By Insaf, 18 May 2024 |
|
|
Round The States
New Delhi, 18 May 2024
Voting Data Delay
INDIA BLOC-EC TUG OF WAR
By Insaf
Alas, the ongoing
general elections have triggered an unsavoury tug of war between the Opposition
and Election Commission. The INDIA bloc has raised serious concerns with the
Election Commission over its silence on revealing actual voting figures and
just not phase-wise voting percentages. Nirvachan Sadan has responded with a statement saying the first four
phases of polls have recorded an overall voter turnout of 66.95% with 45.1
crore votes cast across 379 constituencies. The bloc is rightly not satisfied
and is mulling over legal options other than mounting public pressure. The
civil society and media organisations too have stepped in, for valid reasons.
The Opposition says the sudden jump in final voter turnout by nearly 5.75% from
what ECI had released earlier is ‘worrying’. There are fears of manipulation of
results as several EVMs were missing for a long period. In simple terms, the actual
voting figures is significant on day of counting as these help to compare the
actual votes polled with the votes counted. Any mismatch during counting cannot
be proved otherwise. With the 400 plus seats’ claim of BJP being hazy since the
poll battle first kicked off, the Election Commission must allay the
fears.
It is being argued
that while first phase of polling was held on April 19, the second was held on
April 26. But the EC released final voter turnout percentage only on April 30,
11 days after the first phase of polling! The percentage of voter turnout for
these two phases was 66.14% in the first and 66.71% in the next. These were
substantially higher (6.14% in phase 1 and over 5% in phase 2) than the initial
voter turnout that EC had provided soon after polling had ended in these phases.
Expectedly, the Congress wrote to the EC, but the latter has reacted strongly.
It said: “Commission fully respects the right to free speech and considers it
to be the privilege of political parties and their leaders to correspond and
communicate with each other. However, the Commission has a responsibility to
act against developments which have a direct impact on delivery of its core
mandate of conduct of elections in its entirety till the delivery of results.” And
the delay was not ‘unusual’ and the time taken was “required to collect data
from a large number of polling stations.” Not good enough. The democratic
exercise must not only be ‘free and fair’ but must be seen as such. Nothing
short of it will do.
* * *
Delhi AAP Drama
Delhi Chief Minister
and AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal is caught in a political storm, of his own
making! Worse, at the wrong place and wrong time. Delhi, which goes to the
polls in less than 10 days, is agog over the rift between him and his Rajya
Sabha member Swati Maliwal, which obviously has rival BJP smiling. Following
Maliwal complaining to the police of alleged ‘assault’ by Bibhav Kumar, Kejriwal’s
aide at his residence on Monday last, a team of Delhi cops recorded her
statement on Thursday. It’s said she was ‘abused, before being hit on her face,
chest, stomach and lower part of body and she ran outside and made the PCR
call.’ While AAP has condemned the incident, Kejriwal has taken no action as
assured, and the police has filed an FIR against Kumar. The BJP is flogging the
incident to reach out to voters raising concerns over women’s safety in the
Capital, the NCW has stepped in and summoned Kumar, AAP supporters are
flummoxed whether she will switch over to BJP and Kejriwal cleverly has been
skirting the issue. The big question is how much of an impact will the case
have on AAP voters or will Kejriwal’s plea to push the button on jhadu to
keep him out of jail weigh more?
* * *
Mamata’s Googly
TMC
supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee does it yet again -- fuel
a guessing game. Within 24 hours of announcing she would ‘extend outside
support to INDIA bloc if it comes to power at Centre, at a campaign rally in
Chinsurah, Didi proclaimed at another in Tamluk she’s ‘very much part of
the alliance, as it’s her brainchild and we are together at the national level
and will continue to be together.’ Expectedly, it has a but -- “TMC is not in alliance
with CPM and Congress in Bengal. They aren’t with us; they are with BJP
here.’ Prompting bête noire WBPCC chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury to react, the ‘opportunist
politician’, is ‘now recognising the alliance’ growing momentum and is aiming
to maintain her relevance in national politics.’ Well, that’s not all. Mamata apparently
is keeping an eye on 2026 Assembly
polls, sending a message that even if she’s part of the bloc, she would remain
at a distance and at same time doesn’t want to hurt her anti-BJP stance and thus
won’t oppose the alliance. Either way, she wants to have the cake and eat it
too!
* * *
Andhra Poll Violence
The YSR Congress
Party-Telugu Desam Party bitter rivalry in Andhra Pradesh violently came back
to the fore this week. Supporters from both sides indulged in violence across
the state during polling and post polling for simultaneous Lok Sabha and
Assembly elections held on May 13. An
upset Election Commission has summoned
both state Chief Secretary and DGP to Delhi seeking ‘personal
explanation’ as to why there was a complete failure of state machinery in
containing the violence. Reports of petrol bombs being thrown, damaging of
EVMs, local officials’ vehicles set on fire, and even a building, incidents of
stone-pelting, an MLA and his aides beating up a voter and mob wielding broken
beer bottles and hammers in play, et al trickled in from districts and many
went viral on social media. The police had to fire in the air, resort to baton
charge in places and though the situation was said to be brought under control
with at least 300 people arrested, Nirvachan Sadan on Thursday dialled Union
Home Ministry. It was directed to retain 25 companies of central forces even
after June 4 counting. Nagging fear is victory celebrations of either party are
bound to turn ugly!
* * *
Careless
Uttarakhand
Uttarakhand
government has invited a hard knock from the Supreme Court over its “lackadaisical”
approach to controlling forest fires. It is presenting a rosy picture of plans
being in place, whereas it’s ‘a very sorry state of affairs,’ and no steps have
been taken for so far. Noting the state was trying to find some excuse or the
other, the top court directed Chief Secretary to be present on May 17 to give an
explanation. The bench was aghast that
while funds from Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning
Authority (CAMPA) were available and sanctioned, only Rs 3.41 crore of Rs 9.12
crore was spent for forest-related activity in 2023-24. Why the balance amount
was not utilised for forestry, why are there huge vacancies in the dept, are
questions being asked. The bigger question however, being whether funds are being
utilised for some other purposes, as is often the case with governments? Answers
are vital, but the state wants to skip these, suggesting the SC set up a panel comprising
CAMPA members, Centre, state and others which can suggest ‘a holistic approach’
to deal with the issue! Clearly, trying to keep forest fires issue on the back
burner!---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
|
|
India Reclaims PoK: AN ELECTION GIMMICK?, By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri, 17 May 2024 |
|
|
Round The World
New Delhi, 17 May 2024
India Reclaims PoK
AN ELECTION GIMMICK?
By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
(Secretary General, Assn for
Democratic Socialism)
In response to former
J&K Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah’s reference to Pakistan having atom
bombs, Union Home Minister Amit Shah retorted that India is not afraid of
Pakistan’s bomb and that every inch of PoK belongs to India. He further
asserted that India will reclaim PoK one day or the other. This is indeed a
tall claim but a right one to make. However, is it only an election gimmick or
a serious intention which becomes a part of BJP’s manifesto? Notably, it has
not been included in the Manifesto. Why not? This is the question this article
seeks to address.
Let me throw a caveat.
Election promises either written into a manifesto or announced in public
meetings amount to populism, to whip up emotions of the electors and create
jingoism when it comes to foreign policy issues, in particular, Pakistan.
Manifesto is a cardinal document of a party which is presented at the time of
elections. Remember, the famous Communist manifesto which provided the basis
for progressive politics in the world: Communism and its variants. Since then,
however, manifestoes have not been adhered to in letter or sprit.
In developed
democracies, there is some ethical regard to manifestoes and the voters can
hold the parties to account. In many democracies, manifestoes are not to inform
people but to give political identity to the groups that they issue them by
focusing their antipathies. That is why perhaps Prime Minister Modi, in order
to be more persuasive, called the BJP manifesto ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’.
Mid-way in the current
elections, the Prime Minister seems to have downplayed the emphasis on the
guarantee which is a stronger concept than the manifesto. Cynics of Indian
democracy should have been happy that elections are fought on guarantees. Interestingly,
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, as he came out of jail, announced ten
guarantees as opposed to Modi’s.
He has promised to
reclaim the territories occupied by China. This is a taller order than
reclaiming PoK. It would sound good to nationalist elements. But is it
feasible? At any rate, the point is Kejriwal, running one-and-half government
is promising to retrieve lands from China. He does say that these guarantees
will apply if his Alliance comes to power. He admitted that he had not
consulted his INDIA colleagues while making this promise.
What do these
guarantees mean? In marketing language, guarantee would mean that you can
return a product within a specified period if fails to function. Will the
politicians return the mandate and resign if they fail to fulfil the promise
they are making. This is better than what is called Right to Recall; citizens
could recall their representatives if they are found incompetent or immoral by
their voters.
Coming back to PoK, it
is in order that we briefly reflect on the history of India’s partition and
integration of princely states into the Indian Union. Kashmir, a
Muslim-majority region under the rule of a Hindu king decided to accede to
Indian Union. Some Muslim tribals backed by Pakistani army invaded Kashmir to
separate it from Indian Union on the basis of the majority argument. As per the
rule of accession, Kashmir belonged to India. Indian army was beating back the
invaders but for some controversial reasons, Prime Minister Nehru asked it to
stop. He took it to the United Nations. Rest is history.
The line where the
advancing Indian army was asked to stop became the LAC between India and
Pakistan. The latter has been claiming Kashmir on the
Indian side whereas the entire Kashmir belongs to India. Pakistan has no case. Some
of us have been arguing that India, instead of being defensive on Indian part
of the Kashmir, should claim PoK without which the integration of Kashmir into
India is incomplete.
Another issue to note
is the special status given to Kashmir by Union of India. That status was
exploited by separatist forces in Kashmir backed by Pakistan. And worse,
Pakistan continues to sponsor terrorism in and through Kashmir to destablise
India. Thanks to the leadership of Prime Minister Modi, the state of Jammu
& Kashmir was split into two Union territories, J&K and Ladakh. The
idea was to contain terrorism in the valley and restore normalcy for the
improvement of livelihoods, law and order in the region.
Pakistan is deviously
using PoK to draw China into the conflict between India and Pakistan. This has
dramatically transformed the geo-political situation in the region and
threatens the security of the country. India did not join the Belt & Road
Initiative launched by China as it runs through PoK. Pakistan leasing off parts
of PoK to China is alarming. Now a huge rebellion in PoK is witnessed against
Pakistan. Apparently, people of PoK protesting against Pakistan against
inflation and scarcity have hoisted the Indian flag. Such a development should
be encouraging to India.
BJP leadership is
speaking in a forked tongue. On the one hand, it is asserting that every inch
of PoK belongs to India. But apparently Govt of India is doing precious little in
recovering PoK. The other rendition of BJP is that the people of PoK will opt
to join India as they are fed-up with Pakistan’s inefficiency and corruption in
PoK. This seems to be a wishful thinking. Pakistan will not let PoK secede
without a fight or unbearable international pressure. The Prime Minister of
Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif has sanctioned $82.6 million to PoK to quench the
demand. It is difficult to predict if this would settle the issue.
Unarguably, peoples’
suffering from the oppressive regime cannot easily break away. Balochs in
Pakistan should have done it long ago. So would have Catalans in Spain or
Rohingyas in Myanmar. The international community has to support wherever
legitimate the liberation of such people. In Kashmir, it is a matter of
contention between India and Pakistan. Thus far, Pakistan has been relentlessly
agitating in international fora for getting the Indian part of Kashmir. India,
although has not made a formal claim of PoK, the BJP leadership has been
raising it off and on. This is perfect strategy on Kashmir; the entire Kashmir
has to be integrated with India.
To the surprise of
election strategists, BJP did not include PoK in its manifesto and make it a
frontline election issue. This should have polarised the electorate if INDIA
partners did not echo the reclaiming of PoK. That brings us to our initial
hypothesis that PoK could be an afterthought and is pressed mid-way as election
propaganda. If that be so, it is disappointing. Also, BJP would have missed the
bus on PoK in election time.
Be that as it may.
Elections will be over in a couple of weeks. The issue of PoK would writ large
on India’s foreign policy vis-a vis China as well as Pakistan. So, the current
leadership, namely the incumbent government, be better advised to make PoK their
political conviction and go for it. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature
Alliance)
|
|
POLL GUESSES FAVOUR RAJIV, By Inder Jit, 16 May 2024 |
|
|
REWIND
New Delhi, 16 May 2024
POLL GUESSES FAVOUR RAJIV
By Inder Jit
(Released on 4 December 1984)
Poll talk dominates all else. The guessing game is on
again. Newsmen commentators and anyone who appears to have some clue about the
mood of the voters and the possible outcome of the forthcoming general election
to the Lok Sabha are in great demand. So also are the astrologers who are
better placed than most others. They have at least the Bhrigu Samhita and the
stars to go by. Not only those in seats of authority and their cohorts but
hundreds of others all over the country are busy getting them to peer into the
future. Those anxious to retain power or aspiring to membership of Parliament
want help to determine their prospects and tactics. Celestial guidance is also
being sought by scores of captains of industry and others to decide on the
political horses they should specifically back -- and the best way they should hedge
their bets. Seasoned politicians and observers alone prefer not to commit themselves
and speak in parables. Candidly, talk in terms of numbers is wild at any time.
It is even more so today -- three weeks before the poll. Anything can happen
between now and then.
Nevertheless, certain broad trends are discernible. Dame
Fortune continues to smile benignly on Mr Rajiv Gandhi. He has not only got the
Prime Ministership of India on a gold platter. He also looks like romping back
to power in the poll. No, this assessment is not based on the feelings of the
men around young Rajiv. It is based on informal soundings of some top
Opposition leaders. One Janata leader, known for his political horse sense,
gave the Congress-I between 250 and 275 seats out of 515 being contested.
Another said: “Our friend is being cautious. I would give Rajiv anywhere from
275 to 300 seats.” A top BJP leader agreed later the same day. He told me: “Rajiv
will easily get a majority even 300 seats.” A top Lok Dal leader and another
top BJP leader differed in their assessments. Both separately said: “No one
will get a clear majority. Rajiv will get only 100 seats.” Who would win the
remaining 415 seats? I asked. There was some humming and hawing, but no answer.
Eventually, both said: “Arre bhai, one can only make wild guesses”.
Several factors seem to favour Mr Rajiv Gandhi and his
Congress-I, not the least of which is the tragic failure of the Opposition to
unite and offer the country a credible alternative. Consequently, the
Congress-I alone today offers the people a one-party government. No other party
has fielded enough candidates to provide a government by itself. In fact, the
Opposition does not even offer a coalition government, let alone a stable
regime. This is of basic importance against the backdrop of past experience. In
the post-1967 period, people voted against the Congress and for SVD coalitions
in U.P. and elsewhere. But the experiment flopped. In 1977, people voted for
the Janata, assured that they were backing one party and not an SVD. Yet the
Janata leaders not only let themselves down but also the country. Self and
personal ambitions were once again put before the country and we all saw the
dream of a healthy two-party democracy come to a sudden tragic end. Little
solid has been done by these leaders over the past five years to repair the
damage.
No less important are the positive factors which seem to
have encouraged the voters to view Mr. Rajiv Gandhi as a person who can give the
country a stable Government. First and foremost, the people at large seem
impressed by the poise, dignity and fortitude with which Mr. Gandhi conducted
himself in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. True, not everyone was
able to the day-long telecasts during the period. But the message appears to
have spread widely. Remember, the 1977 poll threw up something altogether new
in the field of communication. The media alone is not the message. The message
is the message – its own carrier. The word about the Janata spread like wildfire
to all nooks and corners of our country in short time even when it had little
access to AIR and Doordarshan. Mr. Rajiv Gandhi, it is conceded, is an unknown quantity
as Prime Minister. But the important thing from the Congress-I viewpoint is
that he appears to have inspired hope and confidence among the common people.
Thinking and educated people have their own yardstick. They
prefer not to be carried away merely by what they saw on Doordarshan and
thereby establish their “superiority and sophistication” over the average voter
-- at least in their own eyes. However, they too, are impressed, though for
different reasons. They are impressed by the fact that Mr. Gandhi has the background
of a good and steady pilot. This ensures that he understands the importance of
three things: the machine, the system and discipline without which he could not
have taken off, sustained himself in the air or safely landed back. In fact,
Mr. Gandhi recently said the same to a top industrialist when the latter
complained that trucks and cars burnt during the recent riots in Delhi were
still lying around. Reportedly said Mr Gandhi: “Unfortunately, nothing gets
done except when the Prime Minister himself orders... As an airlines pilot, I
know I can do well only if I have a good co-pilot and, indeed, a good team in
which the hostess and all others do their respective jobs.”
Not only that. Mr Gandhi is expected to get powerful
support both from the youth and women. Large sections among the youth are happy
to see a younger person at the helm – a person who they feel is likely to
reflect better the hopes and aspirations of their generation. Most women find
him “very handsome and charming”, to quote an expression used by scores of
women over the past few weeks. (Women libbers will, no doubt, protest. But we
cannot ignore basic facts of life and human nature.) Actually, Mr Gandhi’s
popularity with the fair voters brings to my mind an interesting experience of
the 1952 British general election. In the course of my travel, I also visited
Lamington Spa, the constituency of Sir Anthony Eden, Britain's handsome Foreign
Secretary. But I was told that Sir Anthony was never required to campaign. He
merely plastered the town with his portraits and repeatedly won hands down. The
reason? All the women voters invariably turned up to poll and, after taking a
good look at his winsome portrait, voted for him enthusiastically saying: “Oh,
Anthony, ain't he ‘andsome!”
Many doubts were raised in regard to young Rajiv’s capacity
to play politics or, more specifically, poll politics in the wake of Mrs Gandhi’s
assassination. But Mr Gandhi, aided by Mr Arun Nehru, Mr Arun Singh, Mr M.L.
Fotedar and a few other select friends, has taken even his supporters and
sympathisers pleasantly by surprise. First, he did not seek any postponement of
the poll. Instead, he expressed himself in favour of a poll at the earliest.
(Initially, Mrs Gandhi also favoured a poll in the last week of December. But
she then opted for the first week of January.) Second, he has not made sweeping
changes in the Congress list and limited these to the barest minimum for the
present. Third, he has largely tied down two top Opposition leaders, Mr.
Hemwati Bahuguna, Atal Behari Vajpayee, to their constituencies by putting up
the matinee idol Amitabh Bachchan and Mr. Madhav Rao Scindia respectively
against them in a surprise move. Mr. Bahuguna and Mr. Vajpayee were otherwise
expected to spend most of their time campaigning for others both in the Hindi
heartland and elsewhere in the country.
What about the opposition and its leaders? Barring unforeseen
circumstances and a miracle, they seem to have missed the bus once again. The
average voter appears psychologically ready for a change without doubt, he is
disenchanted and disillusioned with the ruling party. It has largely failed to
keep most of its poll promises. What is worse, the nation’s plate, already over
full, has now Punjab and other problems added on top. (According to Mr. Charan
Singh, more than 60 per cent of India’s population now lives below the poverty
line as against 35 per cent earlier.) Nevertheless, voters feel there is no one
they can really turn to in the Opposition in this hour of crisis. The Janata
leader, Mr Chandra Shekhar, the BJP leader, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the
Congress (S) leader, Mr. Sharad Pawar, aroused hopes at one stage. But few talk
of them as potential Prime Ministers – at least for the present. Mr. Charan
Singh’s name comes up repeatedly. But then he appears to have few takers
outside his strongholds in U.P. and Haryana.
Indira Gandhi’s assassination created overnight an
altogether new situation. It opened up political prospects and possibilities.
Power seemed within the Opposition’s grasp in a country which still largely
respects age and believe that youth is no substitute for experience. Yet, all
this has been missed by the Opposition. All, they had to do was to dismount
from their high horses, put country before self and unite. Instead, each was
once again lured by the prospects of Prime Ministership -- the pie in the sky.
Tragically, they could not even agree on adjustment of seats in the crucial
Hindi heartland -- the States of U.P. and Bihar which have all along had a
decisive voice in the choice of the Government and Prime Minister at the
Centre. Different formulae were put forward for division of seats. But each got
shot down eventually. As a top Opposition leader explained: “Since no party is
expected to win a majority, everyone is desperately trying to win as many seats
as possible in the hope of being strong enough to play a decisive role in the
new picture that emerges after the election.”
What the poll will eventually yield is anybody’s conjecture.
It is a pity, however, that Mr Charan Singh, Mr Vajpayee and Mr Chandra Shekhar
were unable to bring off in the north what Mr N.T. Rama Rao and Mr R.K. Hegde
have been able to achieve in the south by way of seat adjustments. (Mr Hegde
expects to bag at least 14 to 16 seats out of a total of 28 seats in Karnataka.
In 1980, the Congress-I won 27 seats and Janata only one seat.) Consequently,
we have lost another opportunity of taking India towards a healthier and more
purposeful two-party or three-party system. Most constituencies look like
witnessing multi-corner contests in which the will of the people seldom gets
reflected truly. In 1980, Indira Gandhi and her Congress-I polled only 42.5 per
cent of the total votes cast. But it won 352 seats in a House of 527 members.
The Janata Party polled 18.93 per cent votes but won only 31 seats. Whether Mr
Gandhi can do one better than his mother remains to be seen. One thing alone
appears clear for the present. If poll guesses are any indication, young Rajiv
appears set for a win. --- INFA
(Copyright, Indi News & Feature
Alliance)
|
|
Future Trends: IS MODI WAVE WANING?, By Dhurjati Mukherjee, 15 May 2024 |
|
|
Open Forum
New Delhi, 15 May 2024
Future Trends
IS MODI WAVE WANING?
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
With the
Lok Sabha elections moving forward, analysts and political pundits are now opining
that the Modi wave is not quite manifest in most states. And any pronounced
polarisation and consolidation of the electorate is not quite discernible.
Questions are being asked whether the BJP-led NDA’s prospects of comfortably
crossing the majority mark would become a reality keeping in view its failure
to move ahead with all sections, specially the marginalised and backward
sections who continue to languish being deprived of basic facilities.
The
ruling party over the past six weeks or so has found it struggling to fuse
the leadership advantage to a singular theme like ‘acche din’ in 2014
and the Balakot episode in 2019. It has switched back on the Ram Temple theme,
rising Bharat and Modi’s guarantees. But reports indicate that these are not
being taken seriously by at least a major section of the electorate.
The
Congress manifesto and promises made by Rahul Gandhi are more appealing and his
simplicity is capturing voters. NDA’s campaign has encountered choppier waters
among Dalits and lower castes in the Hindi belt. Even if the BJP with its low
base in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh manages a few seats,
if at all, this may not compensate for the losses in Karnataka, Rajasthan,
Chhattisgarh and even Uttar Pradesh. What comes in favour for the ruling
dispensation is stability and somewhat better governance, but its ‘authoritarian
character’ and centralisation of authority chips into the advantage the BJP and
NDA have enjoyed.
The cry
being aired that India is poised to become a 21st century economic
super-power, offering an alternative to China for investors looking for growth
is actually not quite real. Why then did Tesla's South African-born boss
skip India and visit China, which was obviously a big hit for the country as it
considers itself the leader of the South. This has been reiterated by a CNN report
which goes on to say that with Prime Minister and industrialists, Mukesh Ambani
and Gautam Adani playing a key role in this regard, India’s position would
emerge big in the global arena in the coming decades. This assessment can be
questioned as none of these industrialists are known for their social concern
except for garnering government favours and making huge profits.
“Both
Adani and Ambani have become key allies as the country embarks on this
resolution”, it stated. Reliance Industries and the Adani Group, the two
conglomerates, have valuation worth over $200 billion each and have established
businesses in sectors ranging from fossil fuels and clean energy to media and
technology. The report is somewhat naive and one-sided as a country cannot move
on the basis of investments along with profit-taking of two corporate groups.
Moreover, there is no record of how these groups are helping the process of
balanced economic development, rural regeneration, and employment generation as
these are vital and critical problems at this juncture.
Also,
though the report has talked of infrastructural boost of the present government
is a well-known fact that social infrastructure continues to be neglected,
thereby proving that the government is not giving priority to grass-root
development and mitigating the problems of the rural poor. Free education and
health and providing these facilities at affordable costs to the marginalised
sections is a must, which the ruling dispensation has been ignoring. India may
become an economic power with the rich and middle-income sections prospering
and inequality widening to unprecedented levels while the poor and the
economically weaker sections struggling for survival.
In this
connection, it is interesting to make a note of what Rahul Gandhi has stated:
that the “Modi government works for 22 businessmen of the country. He waived
off loans worth Rs 16 lakh crores of these corporates”. If this is true, then the
question arises whether the policy focus of the government is on grass-root
development taking place.
Social
analysts and youth leaders have also pointed out that the policy-makers of the
government prefer to remain ignorant of the dimension of the socio-economic
problems, specially relating to youth. The intervention actually needed and
what the government has been doing for the youth is poles apart and much more
action is called for. Even the government is not filling up vacant posts, not
to speak of increased and necessary allocation for the rural employment scheme,
or even encouraging research by ensuring that grants are adequate for the
universities and educational institutions.
It is no
denying that common people, including the educated youth have lost faith in the
politics of the country, primarily because of false propaganda of leaders,
being entrenched in corruption and maintaining an unholy nexus with business
houses and completely neglecting the demands of the marginalised and backward
sections of society. Taking opportunity of the incapability of the government
to solve basic problems, the ruling dispensation has diverted attention of the
people by bringing religion into politics.
The
civil society is not in a position to challenge their false promises and ensure
that they do not give unachievable and alluring hopes to the struggling masses.
The attention of the half-educated sections has been captured not by improving
their living standards or creating more employment opportunities but by playing
with religious sentiments.
Though
as days pass by, it is increasingly being felt that the ‘hypocrisy’ of the BJP
is steadily being exposed and even if it does come back to power due to Modi’s
charisma or its organisational strength or a strong alternative, theissues of
grassroot development will remain. The campaigns not just of the BJP but of
many regional parties like the TMC, NCP etc. too haven’t honestly dealt with
basic problems of the people but more to remain in power. Would it be right to
call this ‘Amrit Kaal’?
Though
the contention of Rahul Gandhi that the BJP would get around 200 seats may be pessimistic,
the figure according to many pundits may not cross 280 seats. The temple in
Ayodhya has not generated the hype that BJP expected, the Chinese occupation
has become a talking point and the economic issues of the day, the utter
disregard for dissent in public life have overshadowed whatever positive action
manifested in Modi’s governance. All these factors as also growing dissatisfaction
of the educated unemployed youth and rural masses with governance, has raised
doubts whether ‘Modi’s guarantee’ would get the party 400 plus seats, as being
claimed. With three more phases of polling due, presumably bets will keep
changing. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
|
|
| | << Start < Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>
| Results 1 - 9 of 6005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|