Round The World

New Delhi, 19 December 2025

Modi’s Gulf, East Africa Visit

SETTING STRATEGIC FOOTHOLDS

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions) 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s two-day state visit to Jordan on 15-16 December, marked a watershed moment in India-Jordan relations, coming 75 years after diplomatic ties were established after a 37-year gap since the last full-fledged visit by an Indian premier. The visit, the first leg of a three-nation tour which also took Modi to Ethiopia and Oman between 16-18 December, was framed by both sides as an opportunity to move the partnership from “symbolic” to “substantive”. In a series of social media posts and a joint press briefing in Jordan, Modi highlighted a ‘meaningful expansion’ of cooperation across a wide spectrum of sectors.

 PM Modi’s four-day, three nation swing though Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman is meant to give India a diplomatic push in two key regions – the Horne of Africa and the Gulf – at a time when New Delhi is rolling out its ‘Link West’ and ‘Africa Initiative’ strategies. At the time of writing (17 Dec), Modi will leave from Ethiopia to Oman. This article, thus, covers the events in Jordan visit while hinting at the purpose of Prime Minister’s visits to Ethiopia and Oman. 

In Jordan, the most tangible results were the Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) signed on 15 December. The Agreements covered renewable energy, water resource management, digital public infrastructure and a twining of UNESCO sites of Petra, Jordan and Ellora in India. The cultural MoU includes the renewal of the India-Jordan Cultural Exchange Programme for 2025-2029 an initiative that the Prime Minister said would ‘further deepen people-to-people ties’. In renewable energy, both countries pledged technical cooperation aimed at clean growth, energy security and climate responsibility. This echoes Modi’s earlier statement that the partnership “reflects a shared commitment to clean growth”. 

Water security, a critical issue for both arid countries, was addressed with collaboration on water-resources management and development, with an emphasis on sharing best practices in conservation and technological innovation. Digital transformation received a boost through a Letter of Intent on sharing successful digital solutions and a call for collaboration between Jordan’s National Payment System and India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI). The latter was part of a broader push to support Jordan’s digital public infrastructure and inclusive governance. 

Strategically, the visit reinforced a shared stance against terrorism. King Abdullah II conveyed strong support for India’s fight against terrorism as both leaders condemned terrorism in all its forms. This part of the outcome has reportedly sent shivers through the spine of terror organisations and their patrons in Pakistani military. Modi also praised Jordan’s ‘active and positive role’ on the Gaza issue, underscoring the geo-political dimension of the bilateral dialogues. While King Abdullah II acknowledged India’s ‘rising influence’ expressing confidence that their partnership would serve as a model for South-South Cooperation. 

On economic and trade prospects, India is Jordan’s third-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at about 2.8b USD. Jordan supplies a significant share of India’s fertilizer imports – particularly Phosphates and Potash – making it a key component of India’s food security strategy. During the talks, Modi proposed raising bilateral trade to US 5b USD over the next five years, a target that reflects the ambition to deepen economic inter-dependence. The Prime Minister’s 8-Point vision, presented to the King, outlined cooperation in trade, critical minerals, civil-nuclear energy, and capacity-building programmes, including the training of 10 master trainers over three years. Jordan expressed its intent to join Indian-led global initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance (ISA), the Global Bio Fuel Alliance, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilience Infrastructure, signalling a convergence of interests on climate and sustainable development. 

The latest trade figures show that India imported 1.2m tonnes of Phosphates and 0.8 m tonnes of Potash from Jordan in the last fiscal year, accounting for roughly 12 per cent of India’s total fertilizer imports. Both governments have agreed to launch a Joint Business Council to explore new sectors such as renewable-energy components, agri-tech and pharmaceuticals, aiming to double trade volume by 2030. 

On strategic and security dimensions beyond economics, the visit cemented a security partnership that builds on the 2018-defence cooperation MoU. Discussions covered military training, defence-industrial collaboration, counter terrorism, intelligence sharing and potential military exports. Modi’s reference to Jordan’s “firm stand against terrorism and extremism” highlighted a shared security outlook; while the King’s support for India’s counter terrorism efforts reinforced mutual trust. 

The geo-political context is equally significant. Jordan’s participation in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) positions the Kingdom of Jordan as a linchpin in a multi-model connectivity project that could cut shipping cost by up to 30 per cent and reduce transit times by around 40 per cent. Modi’s visit, therefore, was not simply a bilateral affair but also a step toward integrating Jordan into a broader regional architecture that links South Asia to the Mediterranean. 

In the defence sector, India has offered to supply Jordan with advanced light-weight howitzers and to conduct joint training exercises at the Indian Army’s training centre in Rajasthan. A Letter of Intent was also signed to explore co-production of spare parts, which could reduce Jordan’s maintenance costs by an estimated 15 per cent over the next decade. 

In cultural exchange and people-to-people ties, the Indian Diaspora in Jordan numbers around 17,500 employed mainly in textiles, construction, manufacturing and UN agencies. The twining of Petra and Ellora is presented as a ‘Gateway for heritage conservation’, tourism and academic exchanges. To nurture ties among the youth, India will offer 50 scholarships under the ICCR programme for Jordanian students to pursue undergraduate studies in engineering and technology with the first batch set to arrive in August 2026. 

The outcomes of the December visit open up several avenues for future collaboration such as renewable-energy, joint ventures, with Jordan seeking to expand its solar capacity, Indian expertise through the ISA and private sector partnership could create large scale project, leveraging India’s cost-effective solar technology. Similarly, digital infrastructure and FinTech linking UPI – Jordan Payment-System could serve as a template for broader FinTech cooperation including cross-border remittances, E-commerce platforms and date-security standards. 

There is also scope in water-management, technology transfer where Indian companies have notable experience – water recycling, drip irrigation and desalination. Opportunities can easily be explored in joint-investment in exploration of critical minerals and fertilizer that could secure supply chain for India’s agriculture sector while providing Jordan with value-added industry.  Scope exists in defence and security collaboration, education and capacity building, tourism and heritage conservation which will boost both economies while supporting Jordan’s ambition to become a technology hub. Such present initiatives and future scope collectively aim to transform the India-Jordan relationship into a dynamic, multi-sector partnership that can serve as a catalyst for broader regional integration and sustainable development. 

Modi’s visit to Ethiopia is timed to mark 70 years of diplomatic relations. Ethiopia hosts the Africa Union headquarter, making it a strategic foothold for India’s broader Africa outreach. For Ethiopia, India is one of its top trading partners and a major source of concessional loans. Modi’s second visit to the Sultanate of Oman also coincides with 70^th anniversary of India-Oman diplomatic ties and following Sultan Haithm bin Tariqu’s state visit to India Dec 2023.  Oman’s location at the mouth of Strait of Hormuz makes it vital for India’s security and maritime interest. 

In short, the Ethiopia leg is about cementing a strategic foothold in East Africa and expanding economic ties, while the Oman leg leverages a long-standing Gulf partnership, energy security and a pending Free Trade Pact, Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that could boost bilateral trade beyond the current 10b USD. Also, such a pact with Oman should deepen India’s influence in the Western Indian Ocean. ---INFA 

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