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Round
The World
New
Delhi, 5 December 2025
Putin Visit To India
IMPLICATIONS ON
FOREIGN POLICY
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof of Practice,
NIIS Group of Institutions)
Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India is being closely watched by world leaders
on two counts. Russia is engaged in a heavy war in Ukraine since 2022. While the
latest peace talks are being carried out as Putin has just threatened Ukraine,
“roll back or be ready to be wiped out”. At the same time, serious efforts are
being made at the behest of America to end the war. Talks are being held
regularly with multiple formulas and options to bring about a ceasefire. The
American President Donald Trump put a 28-point plan on the table to end the
war. After first round of discussion in Geneva last month with Ukrainian
President and his delegation, the plan was reduced to 19 points. However, New
Delhi will be the centre of the world attention this week for Modi-Putin
bilateral meeting.
An
op-ed critical article in a leading Indian newspaper titled, “World wants the
Ukraine war to end, but Russia does not seem serious about peace”, written by
Philipp Ackermann, Thierry Mathou and Lindy Cameron, the Ambassadors of Germany
and France respectively, and Cameron, the British High Commissioner in Delhi.
In a strongly worded article, they have accused Russia of an unprovoked war on
Ukraine, raised the violation of fundamental international principles of national
sovereignty and territorial integrity. They hinted that Russian appetite for
territorial expansion and global destabilisation goes beyond Ukraine. The
article read, ‘Russian fighters are making dangerous and escalating incursions
into European space’.
Characterising
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a humanitarian catastrophe and sets a precedent
for small independent countries to be vulnerable to such aggressions from
bigger powers. They have cited examples of forcible transfer and deportation of
children to Russia. They wondered how Russia has escalated the aggression since
the latest peace talks began by launching 22 of his largest air attacks and the
last week alone, 1200 drones and over 60 cruise and ballistic missiles.
The
article ends by reaffirming their countries’ unwavering commitment to support
Ukraine both with military and non-military means. The Ministry of External
Affairs has issued a mild reaction suggesting that such articles, just on the
eve of a visit of foreign dignitary to India as an invited guest, is “unusual
and unacceptable diplomatic practice.
America
has been highly critical of India’s buying of Russian oil despite the war and the
sanctions. President Donald Trump had imposed additional 25% tariffs on Indian
exports to USA. In his inimitable temperamental style, he had said, “India and
Russia, two dead economies, cannot make any impact”. In the meantime, Indian
purchase of Russian crude oil has dipped since last August. It was 17% less by
September and could fall to a record low in December.
India
was buying 1.8 m barrels per day (cbpd) crude oil. It is estimated to be
60,000-65,000 bpd in December. Indian refineries including the one owned by
Ambani have begun reducing their purchase of Russian oil to avoid violation of
American, European and British sanctions. According to Helsinki-based Centre
for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CRECA), India has been the second largest
importer of Russian oil preceded by China with 7.75 b USD.
Let
us scan what is on Putin’s mind during his two-day visit to India, 4-5 December;
what does he seek to achieve? How does India navigate its foreign policy while
deepening ties with Russia? Some analysts anticipate strengthened ties and
closer collaboration, while quite a few others including myself are sceptical of
Russia’s intentions of meeting potential benefits, and are questioning the
current partnership.
To
read between the lines of two statements, one by Dimitry Peskov, the Kremlin
spokesman in a virtual press interaction with Indian media, and another by the
President Putin himself, Peskov said, “We are looking forward to ensuring our
rights to sell to those who want to purchase oil and their rights to buy our
oil”. He added that Russia is willing to address India’s concern over the ballooning
trade deficit. India’s trade deficit stood at record high as India 68.7 billion,
India exported to Russia $5 billion worth goods in trade and imported 63.7
billion out of 68.7 b total trade in 2024-25. Bulk of the trade consisted of
India’s purchase of Russian oil and defence items under the ‘Special and
Privileged Strategic Partnership’.
Putin
said about the purpose of his visit, “main part of the plan on India visit is
to elevate cooperation with India and China to qualitative new levels”. He
added that “he would discuss expanding Indian imports to Russia”. What raises the hackles of analysts and
strategists is Putin hyphenating India and China. Since early this year because
of Trump’s tantrums, New Delhi seems to be moving closer to Russia and China.
One would have thought the bonhomie with the latter (China) is symbolic and for
optics. But Putin’s statement indicates a possible Troika (India-China-Russia) vis-à-vis
USA and Europe.
That
is risky and serious shift in India’s foreign policy since the first NDA government
under Vajpayee and even 10 years of Manmohan Singh which marked a steady growth
in India-America bilateralism. The jury is still out wheher Narendra Modi can
balance the two rival blocks America and Europe vs Shino-Russian forever-pact. I
tend to believe that it will be a hard and tortuous path to tread upon. New
Delhi will have to eventually choose either or.
On
bilateral issues, Putin will be co-chairing with Modi the 23rd
India-Russian annual bilateral Summit. The annual bilateral Summit between the
two countries began in 2000. During the visit, talks will include renewed cooperation
in trade, defence, energy, political, economic, scientific and people-to-people
ties. New Delhi is likely to ask for the safe return of Indian nationals
recruited in Russian military.
Another
significant deal would be the signing of an Agreement in order to enable
India’s skilled and semi-skilled professionals to work in Russia which is
desperately short of man- power in various sectors. Formal negotiations on such
an Agreement started with signing of the TOR in August 2025. India’s new
Consulate General in Russia’s Yekaterinburg will deal with the mobility issues
of such workers going to Russia.
Another
important item on the agenda would be a Free Trade Agreement with Euro-Asian
Economic Union (EAEU), comprising Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and
Kyrgyzstan. A bilateral trade under the FTA is aimed at $100 billion by 2030. Currently,
India has a large deficit with EAEU mainly due to heavy Indian imports of
Russian oil. FTA is supposed to address this imbalance.
The
discussion on Ukrainian war will be what the world is pontificating on. Whether
Ukraine will figure in public joint communiqué made by the two leaders, is also
a question. If it does, it will have significant implications for India. If it
does not, then also India would be a subject of criticism by Western powers.
Let us watch and wait. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)
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