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Round The World
New Delhi,
21 November 2025
Ukraine
War Prolongs
DELHI,
WARSAW CONCERNS
By Dr.
D.K. Giri
(Prof of
Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions)
It’s been three
years, eight months and three weeks since Russia invaded the country of Ukraine,
and to date, Russia has failed to agree on a ceasefire. Earlier this week, Ukraine
faced its fiercest battle in months as Russia attacked Ukraine’s eastern town
of Pokrovsk. Russian forces pressed into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, as Kyiv’s
military mounted a stout defence. Moreover, as winter approaches, it adds
another danger to the fight as the frozen grounds are most likely to favour the
Russian armoury. At the time of writing, the Foreign Minister of India is visiting
Russia and has met Vladimir Putin.
The city
of Pokrovsk burns as Russia deploys 150000 troops, making a grinding progress
in the battlefield of eastern Ukraine. While President Trump’s effort to end
the war remains at a halt, as Putin refuses the ceasefire in Ukraine. The world
seems to standby as an observer as Ukraine desperately fights to defend its
sovereignty.
After 18
months of siege and enormous losses, capturing Pokrovsk has become something more
for Russia, something more symbolic, to sell victory to its own people.
Militarily, it is a pile of rubble; however, given the number of soldiers and
equipment expended, it simply is too big a defeat to walk away from. On the
other side, the Ukrainian military intelligence continues to attack key Russian
air defence assets in occupied Crimea, and Crimea continues to look incredibly
vulnerable to the Russians.
To add to
this vulnerable situation, Russia is faced with another fuel crisis. Russia is an
oil-rich country; the country’s oil is now at an all-time low, as Ukraine attacks
multiple Russian oil refineries, with almost 5 attacks on the Saratov refinery by
this fall. Ukraine has targeted 55% of Russia’s oil refineries, leading to a
decline in the income Russia generates from its fuel and other refined
products. But Russia still has a good amount of crude oil that can be refined
elsewhere.
While
Russia stated that it has no plans to attack NATO, Russia’s pressing on more
Ukrainian territories has made the surrounding nations double up their defence
spending. Poland, one of the biggest suppliers of military and humanitarian aid
to Ukraine, also prepares for war with Russia if it decides to invade the
Baltic states. Poland’s President vows to spend 4.7% GDP on defence by this
year, and on the defence manufacturing side, Poland is scaling up artillery
production, especially 155 mm howitzer shells, to support both its own defence
and Ukraine’s war needs.
The
question of this attack, thus, remains not if but when. As Poland continues to
be a critical logistics hub for Ukraine, with large volumes of humanitarian and
military aid transiting through it also acts as NATO's frontline, the
cornerstone of Europe's defence. Contrary to the generous military and
humanitarian aid being sent, the country is not overly eager to send its troops
on the ground. This remains largely because Poland wants to keep its troops at
the borders for security, as well as because of the bilateral and historical
tensions between the two countries over the years.
In the midst
of this, there is a rising shift in public sentiment.
Security polling shows growing war fatigue, and according to a peace-security
survey, only about half of Poles now support continued aid to Ukraine, and just
15% support sending Polish troops. Another survey (CBOS) found 55% of Poles
believe the war should end even if Ukraine has to cede territory or
independence. However, despite these doubts, Poland’s leadership
still claims a strong role.
Poland’s geographical position renders it highly sensitive to spillover
risks from the conflict. Incidents involving Russian drones entering Polish
airspace, and the subsequent scramble of NATO aircraft, have heightened
awareness of escalation pathways and underscored Poland’s vulnerability as a
bordering state.
In response, Polish policymakers have advocated for strengthened NATO
deterrence measures and have reopened debates on enhanced airspace protection
for Ukraine, including proposals for a NATO-backed air-defence shield or a
limited no-fly enforcement mechanism.
For an
outside observer, Poland’s contributions reflect both principled support for
Ukrainian sovereignty and pragmatic awareness of the strategic risks posed by
Russian revisionism. As the conflict
continues, Poland’s decisions will remain pivotal in determining not only
Ukraine’s prospects but the broader stability of Europe’s eastern frontier.
India on
the other hand, still appears to be neutral which implies support to Russian
position on the war. Such a stance is causing considerable concern in European
countries including Poland and the United States. Poland and Europe would want
India to distance itself from Russia on Ukraine war or give a hand in bringing
about a ceasefire.
Talking
about India-Poland ties, they were taken to new heights as a strategic
partnership was signed during Indian Prime Minister’s visit to the country in
2024 after a long gap, en route to Kiev.
A Five-Year Action Plan was initiated for 2024-28. This laid out
priority areas for deepening cooperation. The areas included political dialogue
and security, trade and investment, climate, energy, mining, science and
technology, transport and connectivity, counter-terrorism, cyber security,
health cooperation, people-to-people relation and cultural exchange.
Both India
and Poland are fastest-growing economies, Poland among the European countries
and India in Asia. Both countries are seeking to enhance their respective roles
in international affairs. Given the similarity in security concerns vis-à-vis
Russia and China bordering both countries, and common national interest, it is
in order that the ties should be deepened. The elephant in the room is the
Ukrainian war.
India-Poland
ties are critical for both countries in mutual interest and learning. India
borders a big belligerent power, China that has taken Indian territories in
1962 war and is claiming more within India’s sovereign land. Beijing actively
supported Islamabad which fought a limited war on 7th-9th
May 2025 with India that ended in temporary ceasefire. According to India’s
defence policy, the war, Operation Sindoor has not been withdrawn on
Pakistan’s request. It has just been suspended.
Likewise,
or worse, Warsaw faces another authoritarian country Russia which had in the
past invaded and occupied Poland, which borders Russia as well as Ukraine and
therefore, is highly vulnerable to Russian expansion and the spill-over of the
current war. Both New Delhi and Warsaw have similar security risks.
Although
Warsaw is not making this an issue in expanding bilateral relations, New Delhi
should be sensitive to Poland’s precarious position. The Polish embassy in New
Delhi is organising discourses with several think tanks and geo-political
strategists. Polish institutions working on international affairs are
sensitising Indian public, particularly the media on Ukrainian war. New Delhi
should reciprocate with similar activities in Poland. That should certainly
clear the air and align both countries’ foreign policies on various issues
including Ukrainian war. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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