Political Diary

New Delhi, 18 November 2025

Bihar For NDA, Bi Har For MGB

SUSHASAN WINS, NITISH BACK

 By Poonam I Kaushish 

At the end, it all feels good. A six week, two phase grueling election which culminated in anointing NDA’s BJP-JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar nee Sushasan Babu as Bihar’s Chief Minister once again. A 74-year old engineer-turned politician, who rewrote rules of the political game for the fifth time by making political survival a virtue in a gladiatorial contest against Congress-RJD Mahagathbandhan (MGB) and became a cause célèbre.

Of a grateful electorate rewarding Nitish’s last-minute cascade of welfare initiatives: 125 units free electricity, Rs.10,000 to 1.25 crore women in Jeevika network and rural roads. Social media, drawn to seduction of singular explanations, converted this into a neat causal story of welfare translating into votes. 

But the skeletal frame on which Bihar’s politics rests is the social coalition a Party is able to stitch together, quiet consolidation of caste alliances that’s been gathering force beneath the electoral surface. Chirag Paswan’s return to NDA gave it a superior coalition on the ground:  upper castes at one end and non-Yadav OBCs-Dalits at the other, which not only held but delivered benefits of a startling magnitude.

Highlighting, end of One Mandal and Rise of Another. Lalu’s Yadav-centric ascent in the nineties to Nitish’s reclamation of broader backward spectrum whereby the old Mandal vs Kamandal gave way to Mandal with Kamandal ---JD(U)-BJP.     

NDA secured 202 seats: BJP 89 seats emerged as the single largest Party, JD(U) 85, LJP 19 and 9 for two other allies (46.6%). In contrast, MGB despite a 37.9% vote share could manage only 35 seats. RJD won 25 and Congress just six seats.

Undoubtedly, Nitish’s genius lies in being underestimated. He does not command crowds or inspire devotion. A rare politician, who has mastered the art of anti-spectacle now accentuated by indifferent health. He adjusts, absorbs and outlasts every challenge thrown at him. His appeal lies not in what he promises, but what he prevents: return of Jungle raj, presenting himself as a successful custodian of Bihar’s fragile social and political equilibrium. 

Along-with his celebrated manoeuvrability—the capacity to play both sides, borne out of seat arithmetic and the ever-present possibility of defection—has been effectively curtailed. Unlike 2010, when his dominance allowed him leverage within the coalition, or 2015 and 2020, when the size and distribution of opposition seats left multiple escape routes, the 2025 verdict leaves him with no such openings.

The BJP with its well-oiled Party machinery, backed by powerhouse RSS and overwhelming numerical superiority gives it, for the first time, the undisputed authority to discipline the coalition at will. Nitish remains central, but the axis of gravity has unmistakably shifted.

Fear of return of Lalu “Jungle raj by his Yuvraj” Tejashwi along-with the TINA factor (there is no alternative) has tempered criticism against Nitish. Alongside parivartan, one also needed a modicum of trust and reassurance which Nitish embodies. Ironically, the section which held fast  to him is mostly upper castes whose loyalty lies with Modi.  

While Nitish’s politics was anchored on its political appeal towards the most backward classes (non-Yadav OBCs) and Mahadalits, Tejashawi was banking on Yadav-Muslim combine and Chirag on Paswans. The BJP, on its upper caste base now stronger than before.

Second, NDA’s broad pyramid --- upper castes, Kurmis, Koeris, EBCs, Paswans and sections of non-Paswan Dalits --- yielded a distributional advantage that the narrower MGB’s MY-based coalition could not counter. The social profile of new MLAs reveal a telling pattern: marked increase in upper-caste MLAs, robust presence of non-Yadav OBCs, and significant strengthening of EBC representation --- a coalition of extremes that has now become the foundational grammar of Bihar’s electoral politics.

This is the same architecture Nitish cultivated over two decades and has become synonymous with him. Bihar’s counter-coalition --- upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs bound together in an anti-Yadav, non-Muslim compact --- has proven more stable than the subaltern solidarity that once threatened to overthrow the old order.

“Election outcomes reflect welfare delivery, social and ideological coalitions, clear political messaging and dedicated management until last vote is polled,” advised DMK’s Stalin to Congress as it continues a Pavlovian response of blaming Election Commission and pet peeve “vote-chori” for its own failure. Akin to blaming the fire for burnt food!

Rahul needs to ask whether by his apocalyptic and obsessive framing, he is insulting voters and accelerating his and Party’s own narrowing. His repeated allegations of an air-tight conspiracy between BJP and EC is a political leap-too-far that is self-serving and self defeating. Congress needs to urgently answer why it looks like a life-less puppet on strings pulled erratically and whimsically by its Yuvraj and why the Party is unable to communicate its message on the ground.

Lalu’s RJD dynasty seems to be coming apart post poll drubbing, encapsulating the tumult of dynastic politics --- a realm where power, pride and familial bonds intertwine in a precarious dance crumbling under the weight of its own contradictions ending in disaster. The exodus of four daughters and ouster of eldest son speaks volumes of turbulence fueled by a storm of accusations against Tejashwi and two aides underscoring a raucous indictment of the leadership which has led RJD to its electoral nadir.

The MGB procrastinated on its Chief Ministerial face for too long, fought among each other in 12 constituencies, its constituents spoke in different languages, (RJD reacting to NDA’s jungle raj accusations, Congress harping on abstract subjects) chose issues which didn’t resonate with the electorate and ran a lack-lustre campaign.  Unless they introspect, they are unlikely to find redemption.

Importantly, the verdict is wrapped in contradiction. While it signals a historical closure of three-decade-old politics, it opens a new set of challenges. A generation of leadership born out of the 1990s Mandal moment is approaching sunset. Bihar’s Party system is consolidating around two nodes whereby smaller Parties will hover between irrelevance and absorption.

The NDA’s landslide is not merely a victory of incumbency; it’s reaffirmation of a new caste calculus, one in which older solidarities have dissolved, and the political imagination has narrowed into a contest between competing vertical coalitions. Demonstrating two brutal realities: Two-third majority is possible without a single Muslim vote and without a dominant caste --- Yadav --- consolidation.  Read MY combine cracks.

Hence political stability will only sharpen the desire for better developmental outcomes and a new governance matrix. Its decision time now for how Nitish wants to be remembered: State’s caretaker or its statesman.

Undeniably, the Bihar election could well be the harbinger of change, nationally. With half of India’s population in 18-35 age bracket the aspirational levels of a young democracy has changed dramatically. No longer are old clichés, Styrofoam promises and histrionics palatable. All demand an Obama-like “Yes we can” politics. Whereby, progress is bound to overshadow Mandal-Kamandal politics.

However it will not be roses all the way. In an age of 24/7 digital world of post-truth and post-ideology politicking, there is the stirrings of new politics. An intent generation is unlikely to remain content in a scenario where a Chief Minister create jobs or contains rural distress.

In sum, the poll has ignited a new chingari and shown there are never any full stops in politics. Consequently, power-sharing will remain the name of the game, but it’s the Modi-Nitish chemistry that will determine the success of the Government. What gives?  ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)