Round The World

New Delhi, 7 June 2025

China Weaponises Brahmaputra

NEW DELHI MUST REACT

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Professor of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions) 

China has apparently threatened to curtail the flow of Brahmaputra water to India. This is in retaliation to New Delhi suspending the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan. It may be Islamabad’s bluff to garner international support against India’s recent military action. Whatever may be the provocation for Beijing to take this drastic action, New Delhi must give a strong reaction. In fact, China needs no excuse to work against the interest of India.

Beijing’s belligerence against New Delhi is no secret. It has been doing so ever since it acquired Tibet by hoodwinking Jawaharlal Nehru. Giving away Tibet conceded the advantage to China in geo-political and security terms. Tibet was created by the British Colonial administration as a buffer state between India and China. Nehru did not secure any reciprocal obligations for letting Tibet go to China. The river Brahmaputra originates from Tibet. However, Chinese threat on Brahmaputra may not inflict a fatal blow to India.

River water experts suggest that China controls at the most 30 per cent of Brahmaputra water and the rest 70 per cent or more is generated in India. The river grows after entering the Indian soil. The river is enriched by several tributaries and the water flowing down from Khasi, Garo and Jaintia Hills. The tributaries into Bramhaputra are Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Daansiri, and Jia Bharali China could not control the water discharged in India. However, the dam building on Brahmaputra river, storing the water and diverting it is a cause of concern.

Dams are built on the upper side of the river. So if the dam burst accidentally or is broken deliberately, India as a riparian state will suffer, the North Easten states will be submerged with heavy toll on life and property. The second probability is remote as China will not try to damage parts of India by flooding them unless both countries are at war. That should demystify the so-called Damocles sword hanging over India in Brahmaputra river.

The larger point is how has India got into this situation where it is being targeted by Pakistan and China and is kept afar by other countries. Even the United States which is perceived to be engaging India as a counterweight to China seems to have “unfriended” it. Only a few days before, the American Secretary of Trade, openly and rather undiplomatically told off India for being part of BRICS, i.e. at the behest of Beijing, is seeking to de-dollarise the world economy; and doing brisk business in the face of sanctions with the other member, Russia.

At the same time, it is worrying to realise that in the recent war with Pakistan, not a single country came out openly for India. Various arguments could be made about the current India’s foreign policy strategy. A good many observers thought that the recent war with Pakistan sounded a wake-up call to India. Again there were several interpretations of that call. I proffered my perspective in this column only last week. Let me expand on that formulation.

India is left alone in the international community for its faulty conception of world politics and thus the consequent struggle to find friends in need. That is that a multipolar world exists or can be constructed. That India can represent one pole, or can be a part of more than one pole. That India can lead the developing world. That New Delhi’s approach of strategic autonomy enables India to deal with any country at the same time— Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Iran, China and Taiwan and so on.

Some of us have debunked these formulations many times. It needs to be told and time again until the leadership heeds it in the interest of India. Thankfully, Prime Minister Modi has taken a correct position against Pakistan. He could do the same on China. But he seems to be bedevilled by the lack of committed international support against Beijing, also in the absence of correct inputs on China. It should have come from the Foreign Minister Jaishankar who served in China as India’s ambassador. Alas, Jaishankar has failed to click on China.

The present foreign policy strategy that is unmaintainable could be attributed to the External Affairs Minister. His combative, seminarian, self-righteous, almost narcissist style has failed to befriend countries. The Prime Minister with his personal warmth and charisma could get many a world leader to openly stand by India if he had a foreign minister who understood India’s critical security needs. If he did, Modi would not have sent delegations of MPs to explain Indian positions.

Modi made a profound statement on how to navigate international politics. He said, “the road to peace is paved by power”. This was in the context of Pakistan. But that could apply to all countries. Now here is where Modi is let down by his foreign minister. How does India deal with Pakistan and its friend China. When China-Pakistan alliance is established which mobilises support from other countries, who does India stand with. Or is it the case that India does not have allies and it plans to take on China and its friends or Pakistan with its friends.

Remember that someone who is every body’s friend is no body’s friend. Even in Mahabharata, both sides of the battle, both Kauravas and Pandavas went around making Allies. Both armies were invincible, yet they both actively sought partners. Even Lord Krishna offered Himself and his army to either party. Jaishankar has succeeded in making India friendless. Even the United States is perhaps reviving its patronage to Pakistan.

Last word in this piece is, if New Delhi focussed its foreign policy on countering China, things would have fallen in place. India has had a reactive China policy, it is time to revise it and have a pro-active China policy which puts Beijing on the defensive. It is not too late to make that dramatic and drastic shift in India’s China strategy.---INFA

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