Round The World

New Delhi, 30 May 2025

Pahalgam & Aftermath

A WAKE-UP CALL

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Professor of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions) 

A good deal of debate has been taking place since the launch of ‘Operation Sindoor’ and after. Some commentators and political parties are contesting the government’s acceptance of ceasefire. They argue that the government threw away the military advantage, like Jawaharlal Nehru did in 1947 when tribals, backed by Pakistan army, invaded Kashmir. They also suggest that even the diplomatic vantage points were secured more by Pakistan. 

The third criticism hurled mainly by the Congress party is that the government informed Pakistan about the attack. India was about to launch on the terror infrastructure. This allegation stems from an imprudent and perhaps inadvertent statement made by the foreign minister to the press. If that was so, it is, in fact, serious as it would have put the security of India’s military personnel at great risk. The foreign minister subsequently clarified his statementwhile accusing Congress of misreading and misinterpreting his statement. 

However, the major inference drawn out of ‘Operation Sindoor’ and its consequences is the wake-up call for Indian defence and diplomacy. No one disputes that inference. In fact, foreign policy community -government and non-governmental, seems to acknowledge the wake-up call. But there is a huge divergence in its interpretations. In this piece, I would like to share my perspective.

To scan the range of interpretations of the wake-up call, one perspective is that Pakistan can no longer be dealt through dialogue or diplomacy. Islamabad has to be treated with power -- military, economic, water resource, or any plausible tool. Any instance of terrorism would be considered an act of war. Second is the recognition of persistent animosity of Beijing against New Delhi. Therefore, the three C’s of dealing with China have to be revisited-- Containment, Cooperation, and Confrontation. New Delhi is yet to pronounce which ‘C’ is to be embarked upon. Even before ‘Operation Sindoor’, the Foreign Minister had finally admitted, after six years in the office, that ‘Chinese threathas to be recognised’. 

Third, the United States of America cannot be trusted as a partner. Donald Trump disappointed the whole of India. Prime Minister Modi had openly declared his support to Trump in his bid for a second consecutive term. In the last election, in parts of India, people were praying for his victory. Yet Trump suddenly jumped into theIndia–Pakistan fray by announcing to the world that USA mediated the ceasefire. New Delhi has denied this claim.Trump hyphenated India with Pakistan, a terror-sponsoring state. And worse, Trump in his public utterances or twitter handle, did not even mention terrorism. 

Furthermore, by repeatedly offering to mediate in Kashmir, he has internationalised the issue. This militates against New Delhi’s fundamental position of solving it bilaterally with Islamabad according to Shimla agreement. The fourth point of view is the deceitful and ungrateful behaviour of Turkey. Indians are unhappy that Turkey betrayed New Delhi, who had extended the first hand of help when it was hit with a natural disaster, the trade is growing, it is US$10.43 billion compared to US$1.40 billion with Turkey-Pakistan trade. 

As a reaction several Indian institutions and companies have cancelled their MoUs with their counterparts in Turkey.Erdogan’s tilt towards Islamabad is supposed to be dictated by his secret ambition of acquiring nuclear know-how from Pakistan, his aspiration to be the leader of the Islamic world by outsmarting Iran and Saudi Arabia, and to expand its influence beyond Middle East etc. 

I have a different take on the wake-up call,that is, a dire need for New Delhi rethink its foreign policy strategy. To come straight to the point, where is the question of being careful about depending on USA as a partner! Many observers argue that USA will like to treat India as a counter-weight to China in Asia, and an alternative market, especially after Covid pandemic. 

New Delhi has spurned the overtures. New Delhi continues to believe in multi-alignment, a new incarnation of non-alignment. The Quad was initiated to counter China; Beijing desperately decries Quad as an uncalled for grouping aimed against the interest of China. New Delhi, for some inexplicable reason,downplays the existence of Quad as a securing structure, and presents it as a humanitarian non-security entity. Such an approach may frustrate USA and other two Quad partners and defeats India’s long-term interests. 

New Delhi continued to work with Russia, and shared space with China in BRICS, SCO and so on. India’s foreign policy strategy driven by two untenable propositions, managed to isolate New Delhi from the world powers. It stood alone in the 88-hour battle against Pakistan, and in the immediate aftermath. The two propositions are strategic autonomy, a synonym of neutrality, multi alignment etc. which, in other words means trying to be good with everyone and be Vishwaguru, etc. The second is the desire to profile India as the leader of the Developing World. The consequence of that manifested in the recent war is isolation. 

Let us be crystal clear about the existing geopolitical security framework. India is proposinga multipolar world. Security-wise, it is ahistorical and unrealistic belief. The world has always been divided into two blocks. Now the division is marked by two antagonistic blocks-- the West and China-Russia axis. The West consists of USA and Europe. By remaining neutral in Russia-Ukraine war, India has perhaps lost the support of Europe in its fight against China-Pakistan axis. Delhi has not openly embraced USA. It cannot be friend of China. The Developing World does not count in security matters. 

So, the last word is, it is a time for serious rethink on India’s foreign policy strategy. New Delhi can counter and cow down Pakistan any day. But if it is China, is New Delhi prepared? The possibility cannot be ruled out as China is determined to harm India. Stop counting on Russians who have said “India is a friend, but China is a brother. So, preparing in China is the wake-up call which calls for a radical change in India’s foreign policy. Admittedly, New Delhi has done well to send delegations of MPs and experts to various countries to present India’s position in relation to Pakistan and terrorism. Such diplomatic steps must be accelerated. But the moot point is making friends and having active partners.---INFA 

(Copyright, India New & Feature Alliance)