Open Forum

New Delhi, 2 April 2025

Delimitation Row

SOUTHERN STATESFIRM!

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

Delimitation of parliamentary seats due in 2026 has evoked controversy with Opposition leaders, particularly the southern states, expressing serious concern and warning it will be a ‘test for democracy’. If the delimitation is solely based on population, it is expected to violate federal fairness. This has forced the southern states to challenge the proposed delimitation with the formation of the Joint Action Committee (JAC) for ‘Fair Delimitation’, comprising chief ministers and heads of political parties from Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha and Punjab. It has passed a resolution calling for a 25-year extension of the freeze on Lok Sabha constituencies based on the 1971 population census. 

The JAC initiated by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin presented a joint representation to Prime Minister Modi by a core committee of MPs. The CMs and party chiefs are determined to challenge the Centre’s delimitation plan, expressing concerns about transparency and states being penalised for successfully implementing population control measures. The JAC wants the Centre to enact Constitutional amendments to stop penalising states that implemented population control programmes. 

Stalin has rightly raised this question and wondered whether good governance in population control would backfire on the state by reducing its number of seats. There is need to maintain federal fairness by evolving some formula that is acceptable to all the states. Another point that needs to be addressed isthat while a Member of Parliament can effectively represent around 3 million people in India, in the United Kingdom it is 0.1 million and closer home in Bangladesh it’s 0.56 million. This is not to say that richer states should be rewarded with more seats. Nor is it necessary to tie representation to achievement of key development indicators, incentivising governments to improve their performance. 

Meanwhile, reports indicate that the Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav in UP and JMM in Jharkhand have lent support to Tamil Naduon the issue. However, the RJD, the main opposition party in Bihar has backed the proposed delimitation exercise. 

It is well known that the southern states stand to lose the most if the delimitation exercise is carried out on the basis of population alone. According to one estimate, Gujarat, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan would have 367 seats, constituting 47 percent of parliamentary representation while the five southern states would have a mere 164 seats. Reduced representation could erode their say on national policy and government formation. Thus, the southern states have joined together and are speaking in one voice about their concern at the erosion of federalism. 

ThoughUnion Home Minister Amit Shah has stated recently that no state will face reduction in Lok Sabha seats, it doesn’t appear to be a fact. If seats are to be allocated in proportion to the present population, UP, which now has 80 seats may send more than 130 members to a 790-strong House while Tamil Nadu will get only 43, an increase of just four seats. Indeed, states like UP, Bihar and Maharashtra would benefit, while the southern ones would see a drastic decline in their number of seats, obviously a punishment for successfully implementing family planning. 

Thus, Congress Chief Minister Revanth Reddy in Telangana has asked Centre to increase South India’s representation to 33% in the Lok Sabha (up from the current 24%). This as ‘states contributing more to GDP should have a stronger voice in Parliament’. The Congress in Karnataka has likewise warned that delimitation was ‘not a technical adjustment, but a political assault’ on southern states and that the strength of Rajya Sabha should be increased as a counterbalance to North’s numerical dominance in the Lok Sabha.AAP Chief Minister Mann in Punjab has accused BJP of ‘manipulating’ seat allocation to benefit Hindi-speaking states where it performs well, and that his state’s representation would be cut primarily because BJP is weak there. 

It is understood that the proposed Delimitation Commission will be the final authority to decide the basis of the exercise and not population alone. The Commission will be formed only after the population census is over and that members would go around the country to elicit states’ views. 

Delving into the past, the government thought it necessary not to disincentive the small family norm and delimitation of Parliament seats on basis of population was frozen for 25 years in 1976 and again for another 25 years by the Vajpayee government. The big question now is whether the BJP government wants to force delimitation in order to expand and consolidate the party’s advantage in the North? Pushing southern states into reversing population control, as Stalin warned, will obviously be ill-advised. The reality is that at the national level the nation has a population problem, and the growth needs to be checked. 

Sadly, the ruling dispensation has found a way of suppressing the southern states which are far ahead than their northern counterparts in all spheres. Whether it is education, economy or political governance, the South is more efficient in all possible ways. Even when you look at scientists, technocrats and bureaucrats, those who lead incidentally belongto the South. Thus,northern states fall behind them when it comes to competition in industrial and service sectors and an overall governance chart. 

At 1.45 billion, the country’s population continues to be above the carrying capacity of our ecosystem. Obviously, strict measures need to be taken to control the uptrend of the population rise and strict measuresmust be taken by the northern states. In fact, the Centre has an important role to play in helping the northern states, and even eastern states, in this regard. And those states that have shown success in controlling population cannot, in any way, be penalised by reducing their number of seats and thereby curtailing their powers in the national decision-making and governance process.  

Obviously, an amicable solution needs to be formulated. One such solution to the controversial issue would be to set the 2011 population as the new norm for both central resource transfers and for delimitation and freeze it at that level for the next 25 years. The delimitation could be gradual with 20 or 25 percent adjustment every five years starting 2031. 

Finally, it needs to be reiterated that in a pluralist democracy not just population, but other considerations need to be kept in mind in evolving delimitation and the Delimitation Commission, once established, can take the views of experts in this regard. It is worth remembering the American political philosopher, Alexis de Tocqueville who argued that the equalising spirit of democracy exerted a prodigious influence over the whole course of society and the country, including public opinion, laws and the habits of the governed and this should not be curbed, in any way.---INFA 

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