Open Forum

New Delhi, 19 March 2025

Melting Glaciers

ADVERSE IMPACT FOR INDIA

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

The United Nations has declared 2025 as the ‘International Year of Glacier Preservation’, given the critical problem of glacier melting. To an environmentalist it has adverse consequences for a country like India, causing floods, avalanches and the like, affecting population, especially those in coastal areas. As the source of many major rivers, including the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus, the melting of Himalayan glaciers can have far-reaching impacts on water availability, irrigation, hydropower generation, and socio-economic development in the region. 

Scientists have cautioned that glaciers in the Hind Kush Himalayas are melting at unprecedented rates and could lose up to 75% of the volume by the end of this century. Obviously,this poses a threat of dangerous flooding and water shortages for nearly 2 billion people living downstream along the rivers originating in this mountainous region. 

It is worth noting that ISRO found that over 27% of the Himalayan glacial lakes that have been identified have significantly expanded since 1984, with 130 of those lakes being in India. Significant alterations in glacial lakes have been observed in the catchments of the Indian Himalayan river basins between 1984 and 2023, as per a statement by the space agency. “Of the 2,431 lakes larger than 10 hectares identified during 2016-17, 676 glacial lakes have notably expanded since 1984,” it said. 

The Himalayan mountains, often referred to as the Third Pole because of their extensive glaciers and snow cover, are highly sensitive to changes in the global climate, both in terms of their physical characteristics and societal impacts, says ISRO. “Research conducted worldwide has consistently shown that glaciers across the globe have been experiencing unprecedented rates of retreat and thinning since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the 18^thcentury.” 

The ISRO had found 676 lakes have expanded more than twice, while 10 lakes have grown between 1.5 to two times and 65 lakes 1.5 times. It said 130 of the 676 lakes are situated within India, with 65, 7, and 58 located in the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins, respectively. An elevation-based analysis revealed that 314 lakes are located in the 4,000-5,000-metre range and 296 above 5,000 metres. 

The bodies of water, created by the melting of glaciers, are known as glacial lakes and play a crucial role as freshwater sources for rivers in the Himalayan region. “However, these also pose significant risks such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which can have devastating consequences for communities downstream,” said ISRO. “GLOFs occur when glacial lakes release large volumes of melt water due to the failure of natural dams, such as those made of moraine or ice, resulting in sudden and severe flooding downstream. These dam failures can be triggered by various factors, including avalanches of ice or rock, extreme weather events, and other environmental factors.” 

Meanwhile, climate activist, Sonam Wangchuk in a recent letter to the Prime Minister, very pertinently stated that India should take the lead in addressing climate change. This, as he said: “As we all know the glaciers of the Himalayas are melting fast and if this and the accompanying deforestation continue at current rates, then in a few decades our sacred rivers like Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus might become seasonal rivers. This may also mean that the next Maha Kumbh might only happen on sandy remains of the sacred rivers.” 

The activist, like many others, suggested that India should take the lead in mitigating at least some of the ill-effects of climate change in the Himalayan region that have already been felt in various ways. It may be pertinent here to point out that the Himalayas have the third largest deposit of ice and snow on Earth after the Arctic and Antarctica. In this connection, Wangchuk’s suggestion of setting up a commission and declaring major glaciers like the Gangotri and the Yamunotri national treasures need to be adhered to so that there is adequate protection of the Himalayan glaciers, which are a source of the perennial rivers.  

Though Wangchuk gave the example of people migrating from Kumik village in Ladakh’s Zanskar region due to water scarcity to demonstrate how climate change in the Himalayas affected the lives of inhabitants, there are other innumerable such examples. What is most significant to note is the water scarcity that may be caused even as India is slowly becoming a water-stressed nation in recent years. 

It is generally accepted that melting of the Himalayan glaciers could impact the water resources of the country. This can lead to an increase in the volume and intensity of river flows, which can cause flash floods and landslides. It may be mentioned here that the population living in and around the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin was estimated to be over 700 million people in 2022. Also, it is a well-known fact that the Himalayas exert a significant influence on seasonal shifts in the monsoon circulation and the distribution of rainfall in India and this has been decreasing over the years. 

Not just the Himalayan glaciers, but with global temperatures exceeding the critical 1,5⁰C threshold above the pre-industrial levels for the first time in 2024, it has been found that the Arctic would be practically ice-free at times in the coming decades, observed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Director, Dr. R. Krishnan. Speaking at the PIC Climate Emergency Conference recently, the scientist presented comprehensive data showing how human activities accelerated global warming. This phenomenon could be observable as early as 2030s.  He warned that the two degree warming threshold globally would likely be exceeded in the coming decade if rapid, deep reductions in carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases were not implemented. 

According to projections of the IPCC, the melting of glaciers could indicate a likely increase in summer rainfall by 4-12% in the near term and 4-25% in the long term. This again will affect the country as the south-west monsoon accounts for 70% of the annual rainfall in India. Moreover, changing monsoon patterns, including increased severity and frequency of storms, could lead to mountain hazards that may destroy critical infrastructure. 

Additionally, the melting of Himalayan glaciers could affect agriculture and the availability of water for irrigation, which could lead to a decline in crop yields and have a significant impact on farmers’ livelihoods. Already, the shortage of water is being felt in several parts of western and central India,and it is expected to accentuate over the years. Moreover, this shortage has added to water pollution affecting the livelihoods of large sections of the population. 

Finally, it goes without saying that the crisis requires a concerted effort to foster regional change in quantifying effects, assessing vulnerability and combating climate change impacts on glacial ecosystems through mitigation and adaptation measures. The world must prioritise the reduction of carbon emissions.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)