Round The World

New Delhi, 7 March 2025

India And The World

RECALIBRATING FOREIGN POLICY

Prof (Dr) D.K. Giri

(Prof. NIIS Group, Bhubaneswar) 

The ascendance of Donald Trump to the White House for the second time has caused a tectonic change in the global geopolitical order. All countries have to adjust their policies to cope with this dramatic change. India is no exception.  

America can still move and shake things in the world. Remember, the Second World War came to an end only after the US intervened in favour of the Allied Powers. The Cold War lasted so long because of American posturing against Russia. And the USSR expansion into Eastern Europe was checked by the US. Israel survives against the combined might of Arab countries only on account of America’s sustained support.  

Europe, another big power, is basking in its past glory which is also fast fading. The European Union, the supranational entity, is not united as the United States of America, nor the Union of India. They are trying to regroup under the sudden blast inflicted by Trump. One only hopes that they succeed as the European Union is a good experiment in integration.  

China has emerged as a big economic power and is using its economic heft to acquire political and security dominance. Beijing is batting for carving out its own sphere of influence. Russia, under Putin is desperately trying to revive its old influence in the world. It is trying to undo the disintegration carried out under Gorbachev. Little did he realise his twin strategy of glasnost and perestroika would open up the Pandora’s box leading to falling apart of the Union. 

Where does India stand in this changed scenario? Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was perceived as close to Trump must also be rethinking about his frenemies. He campaigned for Trump in 2020, breaking the protocols. But Trump’s spat with Zelenskyy bordering on plain abuse of each other would have shaken many leaders. 

Trump is currently advised by apolitical individuals. Take Elon Musk for example. He is privileged over Cabinet Ministers. It is another matter that in America, one could be a Minister without being elected by the people. Musk is the Head of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Did people watch how Musk met Modi in a bilateral interaction. Modi was accompanied by his close team members, the National Security Advisor, the Foreign Minister and the Indian Ambassador to US, and the Musk’s side was occupied by children from some foster care and their nannies. It is hard to interpret what it actually signified. 

All Heads of Government may be rereading the chilling lines of Henry Kissinger, the longtime Secretary of State of the US, “It may be dangerous to be an enemy of America, but to be a friend of America is fatal”.  Who would realise it more than Zelenskyy? India is at the fence, has not fully become an American friend.  

Given such geo-political zeitgeist, what could the South Block that churns strategies be thinking! It would be worth the while of the observers and the analysts to draw their inferences. I will do mine. The first thought that comes to mind is “wait and watch”, which is a part of our culture and a policy imperative. Indians are not known for reacting impulsively. Good enough. But there is also a saying that “an early bird catches the worm”. Those who take initiative, influence the outcome.  

If we go along with the wait and watch, allow the diplomatic storm to subside, India can navigate its path. After all, it may be a storm in the tea cup. Trump cannot thrive in chaos. He does not like market disruption--inflation or the stock market crashing. He will then pull back. Trump is flexible though unpredictable. So, it will be business as usual. The Ukraine war will end. Russia will agree to pull out with some concessions. If Ukraine undertakes not to join NATO, Putin may breathe in peace. Russia may be delinked somewhat from China. That will be good for India.  

If all the above does not happen, what will be New Delhi’s initiatives? The only viable and possible alternative is to push for a multipolar world. This has been the passion of India’s Foreign Minister. Such a world order will provide the strategic autonomy to India and many other countries. To India and others, the scope of multi-alignment, to the South Americans who are advocating ‘active non-alignment’ and others specific alignment and so on. 

So far, I have argued against the possibility of a multi-polar world. It is not evidenced by history. It sounds utopian. But there is no harm trying it. Nothing is improbable in human lives or those of nations. Who has thought two Germanies will be one, Soviet Union will collapse, or China may fall apart? In science, robots can replace real humans. So go for a multipolar world to escape the whims and caprices of one Individual who runs the biggest power of the world. In any case, if this world order is going to be reality, and India genuinely wants it, New Delhi has to go overdrive on this. 

Europe is jilted with the US. New Delhi should talk to Europeans seriously. If they do not want repeats of vocal thrashing and crash insults from the American Vice President, they have to pull up their socks. European leaders have reiterated their pledge of support to Zelenskyy. That pledge should soon translate into action. If Europe is making these utterances to put pressure on Trump to secure a better deal for Ukraine, it may not work. Trump may not yield easily to pressure. 

The president of the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, Ursula Van was in India. She was in Kiev to extend support to Zelenskyy on the third anniversary of the war. She talked to Indian leadership about soon completing the discussion and sign the FTA. This has gone on forever, almost 12 years. If that is the efficiency of the EU in clinching agreements, God help the EU. They could be more decisive by cutting out the bureaucracy. India is good with the global south. New Delhi can carry them along. It is the middle powers India needs to carry confidence with.  

I am certainly not convinced that a multipolar world will ever emerge. It is for the countries to choose their place in geo-political binary. Who will lead either side in a binary will change over decades. But that will be the world order. The middle powers can certainly influence the leaderships in binaries.  

India should not hedge between two powers or axes. It can play an active role. For now, it has the space to build a multipolar world. All the best. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)