Round The World

New Delhi, 28 February 2025

India-Ukraine-USA

Thinking the Impossible

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof. NIIS Group of Institutions, Odisha) 

Donald Trump in his second term is moving and shaking things in international politics. On the eve of Trump’s resumption of office, Israel and Gaza truce took place resulting in a ceasefire and release of hostages and rebuilding of Gaza. After taking over as a President, Trump has swiftly moved to end the war in Ukraine. It was anticipated that Trump would pro-actively bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine. What is worrying the world is the manner in which he is doing it. His strategy and steps seem to disrupt the traditional alliance like NATO, disowning Ukraine to the point of betrayal, embracing Russia amounting to sleeping with the enemy. It is in order that we analyse the geo-political implication of Trump’s engagement in Ukrainian war, and its impact on India. 

First of all, Donald Trump dramatically as well as astonishingly bypassed Europe in his negotiation with Vladimir Putin, let alone the other party in the war, the Ukraine. Europeans consider Ukraine as the victim of blatant aggression by Russia. Isolating Europe is a conscious act undertaken by Donald Trump. His Vice-President JD Vance made an uncharacteristic, undiplomatic and worse, a scathing attack on European leadership in the Munich Security Conference. Trump did not distance himself from the speech made by his Vice-President. Trump has been asking Europe to foot the bill for NATO. In his negotiation with Putin, he left Europe out. It is another matter that European leadership is regrouping to respond to the Trumpian snub. 

The French President rushed to Washington to talk to Trump and transmit European feelings. He said that no peace deal should be concluded by making Ukraine fully surrender to Russia. Other European countries like Britain have increased their sanctions against Russia. The British generals have been advocating putting British boots in Ukraine to fight the war. The German Chancellor in waiting after last Sunday (23 February) elections Joachim-Fredrich Martin Joseph Merz has strongly responded to Trump’s policy on Ukraine and his leadership style. He said, “After Trump’s remarks last week… it is clear that his government does not care much about the fate of Europe”. What is more, he called for, “German Independence from the United States”. He added that it would be his “absolute priority” to strengthen Europe so it does not have to rely on Washington for its defence”. 

Remember, Germany is by far the strongest economy in Europe. Berlin somewhat assumes, along with France, the leadership of Europe, leading the European Union comprising 27 member states. Ironically, dumping of Europe by Trump may auger well for the European countries mainly the EU, as they should begin to build themselves as the third pillar of global political and security order. When the European Union completed the political integration after the commercial and economic harmonising, the EU had promised to promote a certain set of political values – human rights, freedom, diversity, integration etc. Without a formidable security apparatus, they were not able to do so.  Worse, under the American political security umbrella, the European countries continued to carry out brisk business regardless of human rights and liberty etc. 

How Europe would react to will determine the ensuing geo-political order. Unarguably, Donald Trump’s latest manoeuvre amounting to complete disruption has resulted in chaos and confusion. That is typical of unusual leadership of Donald Trump. Europe is going through internal churning. With its history of domination of the world, Europe cannot be brushed aside. Trump will commit a grave error by detaching from Europe. 

Ukraine seems to be left in the lurch. Europeans are rallying behind the embattled Ukraine. In the third anniversary of the bloody war, the European leaders and those from Canada landed in Kiev in solidarity with Ukraine. President of European Commission, the Executive Body of European Union, Ursula von der Leyen was also there who declared that Europe will provide the resources needed by Ukraine to fight the war. According to observers, Ukraine was led to the war by Americans and Europeans, now left alone while negotiating a deal. Ukraine is protesting against being thrown under the bus by the Americans. Perhaps Ukraine should have read the famous lines of Henry Kissinger, the Secretary of State in the govt of President Richard Nixon, “To be an enemy of United States is dangerous, but to be a friend of USA is fatal.” To look at the brighter picture, Donald Trump is focused on ending the war. It may not be in line with the Ukrainian expectation. But the end of bloodshed is a good thing to live with. Trump seems to focus on end not the means. 

As said before, Europe’s reaction to a deal between America and Russia is important. If, under American ‘betrayal’ and European solidarity, Ukraine does not agree to the peace deal and continues to fight that will show Trump in a bad light. It is inconceivable that America will support Russia in the war. May be not, one can think the impossible under Donald Trump’s administration. Another possible interpretation is that Trump may be obliging Russians and winning their confidence through his statements and support in the United Nations. Calling Russia an aggressor is just use of a term. Getting Moscow to agree to end the war is what counts. Trump is calling out Zelenskyy as dictator, sub-par comedian and what not. These may be confidence tricks with Russians. 

Trump likes to confuse his counterparts by making startling statements. Then he would do what he likes to and allow the things to settle down for business as usual. He is doing the same with India. He calls Indian Prime Minister great friend, a good negotiator, hard working for his (Modi’s) country. Yet, he calls India the biggest tariff imposer. He arm twists India to buy weapons from USA. At the same time, he promises to raise India-America trade to 500b USD upto 2030. So it is difficult to decipher Trump’s statements. 

What is, however, certain is that Trump’s approach to Ukrainian war should eventually help India. Trump is trying to decouple Russia from China. If that happens, China will be left alone in challenging United States for respective spheres of influence. Xi Jinping has a confrontational attitude. On the other hand, Trump had declared China as the main strategic rival. If China is weakened, having been deprived of its biggest ally Russia, Beijing will cease to be aggressive towards its neighbours. That will be good for India. India has not become a close ally yet of America and it stands by its friendship with Russia. So, may be unconsciously, Trump’s actions are leading to a convergence between India and America on Ukraine. That is a good development for India. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)