Round The
World
New Delhi, 15 May 2020
A New World Order
NEW DELHI’S OPTIONS?
By Dr D. K.Giri
(Prof. International Politics)
Life and politics
will not be the same in the wake of Covid-19 due to heavy and radical
disruptions of social engagement and economic activities. Countries across the world, fatally hit by
the virus, will make political adjustments within and realignment beyond their
borders. Consequently, existing international institutions and power
configurations will undergo significant change and a new world order will
emerge. How do we envision a geopolitical paradigm shift in international
politics, what are New Delhi’s options?
In order to support
our hypothesis of emergence of a New World Order, let us reckon the changes that
have been happening. The globalisation of trade continues with a slower pace,
but “political fragmentation and tensions grow faster”. Great power competition
dominated by the rivalry between US and China as well as Russia has become the
dominant factor. International institutions are weakening due to US withdrawal
and partly due to discord between major powers. WHO is being accused of echoing
Chinese line?
These above
conditions are being exacerbated as America and other major powers accuse China
of the pandemic, at least its opacity in the initial days of the virus outbreak
in Wuhan. Disruption of world trade would deepen as supply chains are diverted
from China with some countries placing heavy restrictions on bilateral trade.
The US-China trade war will re-escalate.
A growing number of international exporters would experience financial
distress as a persistent shortfall in Chinese demand will depress commodity
prices and export revenues.
In order to tackle
the economic fallouts, China and other countries will inject heavy fiscal
stimulus to engineer a recovery in economic expansion resulting in a rebound
growth in the second half of the year worldwide. Thus, taking into account the
direct impact of weaker demand in China as well as potential economic
disruption in the world, the global GDP growth could dip below 2.5% this year.
This is a depressing scenario of world recession.
So how will the World
react? There are quite a few probable scenarios, depending on how governments
respond to the pandemic and its economic aftermath. Political prudence lies in
predicting the most likely scenario and positioning oneself in it.
The new scenario will
be influenced by at least three variables at play. The crowding out of issues,
quite a few international developments may be overlooked in the pandemic and
its consequences dominating the strategists and observers. For instance, the
strikes against US bases in Iraq and Washington’s intention to withdraw some of
its forces have gone virtually unnoticed.
Second, the
escalation effect, a local incident can always escalate into a more general
conflict. The expulsion of US journalists from China is increasing
confrontation between the two. Border skirmishes between India and Pakistan
leading to a major military confrontation cannot be ruled out. Remember,
politics of both countries is a function of their dealing with each other on
Kashmir.
Third, an opportunity
effect, constructive proposals could come on countries like Iran and
Afghanistan as world leaders are not in a mood to open up new conflicts. This
is unlikely as getting all stakeholders around a novel idea is not easy, as
vested interests, “wheels within wheels” drive people apart.
One possible scenario
predicted by well-meaning people could be seen in the light of what an American
expert Alanna Shaikh has stated the “corona virus is our future”. By this, it
is meant that it’s our current lifestyles as a whole, over consumption,
relationship with nature, which unrestrained is causing severe health crises
and frequent climate disasters. The two are indeed difficult to separate. Covid-19
emerged in the wake of major fires striking in Australia. Only a change of
course, that is not only geopolitical but also civilisational, can save
humanity. Civilisational changes take
ages to occur. It seems to be an innocent and imbecile expectation.
Conservative experts
might say we will simply return to the past: we have overcome the crisis,
albeit at a much higher cost than during SARS (2003) or the other health
hazards before or stock market crash in 2008, let us get on with business as
usual. However, given the intensity of the crisis, and developments preceding
the pandemic, it’s unlikely.
There are two more
possible scenarios partly projected by propaganda machines in US and
China. Beijing will say that the Allies
realise the cost of aligning with US as the latter follows a nationalistic
foreign policy of sharing costs in international crises. The incompetent and
indifferent approach to solving the corona crisis at home, have greatly
undermined the ability and legitimacy as a super power. How dependable and
sustainable is the alliance with US, which with its advanced technology and
kits to test and treat Covid-19 failed to supply them to its allies.
On the contrary, China
has stood by countries like Italy and Serbia, made its experts and equipments
available to the world. It can extend help, both financial and technical, in
times of global crises. The world could rely on China. Therefore, the claim
from the Chinese camp is, post-Corona setting will push a new power dynamics to
emerge. The torch of initiative and leadership would be passed for good to
China, firstly in the field of global issues of health, climate change,
development, 5G and even military.
The other is there
may be a change of leadership in US after November presidential elections. The
Democratic Party contender Joe Biden will come to the White House. America then
will go international again. It might reinvest in international institutions to
reconnect with its natural position as leader in global governance.
This is quite
unlikely. From Donald Trump camp, the precise prognosis is America never
changes horses in the middle of a race. China will be in American cross hairs
by September. During May-June, Trump will address Covid-19 and testing. In June-July
he will go big bang on restarting the economy. In subsequent two months, he will
collect evidence on Wuhan Lab. In September, he will give CCP a big Bill about
$5 to $10 trillion. The CCP will balk, and the squeeze will start with freezing
CCP assets, sanctions, travel bans on Chinese and so on. In November, Trump is
re-elected. The American voters will have to decide whether they want a
president who is tough on China or Biden whose son got $1.5 billion from China
for some business venture.
To be sure, there
will be a new cold war between US and China and countries will be in two
trading blocks. The US will continue to lead in Innovation, Space and Finance. Supply
chains will relocate; China will lose manufacturing and will be squeezed out of
global financial markets, as adoption of Yuan will be limited to a few African
and South American client States. NATO will be recalibrated to address China,
UN loses its shine and WHO may be abandoned. These big changes are radical but
quite likely.
Where does India see
herself in this scenario? India stands for democracy and against terrorism. Therefore,
it has to align with democratic countries against terrorism. India has nothing
in common with China and its vassal state as both stand for evil as
demonstrated by Covid-19 and Pulwama etc. India has a legacy relationship with
Russia that can be managed with an emerging relationship with America and
continued goodwill with Moscow.
Prime Minister Modi
has given a call for being ‘vocal on local’ for being self-reliant. He has
qualified it by adding that self-reliance would to lead to competitiveness and
autarky or isolationism. We hope it is so. However, the real test for India is
to support Taiwan in WHO. Let us keep our fingers crossed. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
13 May 2020
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