Political Diary
New
Delhi, 5 April 2020
Life With
Covid 19
THE NEW
NORMAL
By Poonam
I Kaushish
He who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount, so goes an old proverb.
Prime Minister Modi perhaps is in the same predicament: The lockdown has been
extended again by two weeks. But, what after that? Is he merely buying time in
the feverish hope that the curve will be flattened? That a miracle cure or vaccine will appear on the
horizon soon?
Questions which have no easy answers. The only thing one can say with
certainty is the virus is here to stay and there is no going back to normality
the way we knew it. That train has left the station. Yet there is going to be
life after Covid 19 and it will be the new normal.
Certainly, the pandemic is the most tumultuous, most catastrophic and
the most defining epoch of our lifetime. From the end of December 2019, when the first cases
were reported in China to the middle of April 2020 when an estimated one-third
of the world’s population is locked into their homes
As the lockdown continues it has been an unprecedented 42 days with no
rulebook which told the Government what to do, when and how to lockdown, when
and how to shut down the economy and when and how to re-open industry and
businesses. Worse, as nations trade charges whether the virus jumped from an
animal host to humans or was nurtured in a Wuhan laboratory, it matters little as it has been deadly and
devastating. Underscoring, the collective vulnerability of our world to a lowly
virus.
The sheer scale of human deprivation is frightening as migrant workers and
poor trudge their never ending ‘walks to home’ as their jobs are taken away.
Think: The economies of the poor are not based on the security of tenure, but
on their daily earnings. India has over 410 million workers in the
unorganised sector, the vast majority of whom are daily wagers making a little
more than the prescribed official wages and often much below that.
Through this maelstrom the Government grapples with the immediate ---
relief and rescue operations --- to the poor,
workers, industry etc and evacuating those stranded in the country. Trains have
started to run once again after more than a month as have national highways but only to allow special buses to transport those
stranded home.
How long can the mass of people go without daily earnings? Despite the economic packages, including
Rs 500 each in crores of Jan Dhan accounts, and Rs 2,000 each for crores of
farmers under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Yojna, without restoring normalcy for
farms, factories, bazaars and mandis across
the country, the misery of the aam aadmi
is bound to grow further.
And
God forbid if the economy tanks it will be a double-whammy for the poor. Unlike the 2007-08 global financial crisis, 2020 is primarily a health
crisis, which has given birth to an economic shock. It has resulted in job loss, disruption of supply chains along-with
slowdown in manufacturing and services activities.
Workers are back to their home in faraway places, lack of orders may
eventually lead to massive trade contraction. Add to it disruption in air
travel, fall in tourism, reduction in outdoor entertainment industries, rise in
bankruptcy and NPAs. The Government needs to urgently put “economic antibodies”
to save the economy from further disaster. Gradual opening of the economies and
adjusting in the ‘New Normal’ is the need of the hour.
Alas, the contagion has exposed we live in a dog-eat-dog world with each
country thinking only of its crisis. Sparring about who will make the first
vaccine, competing for medicine
supplies, pirating protective equipment, masks and gowns needed for healthcare
workers.
What is alarming is that the numbers of those
infected likely stem from under-reporting, and may probably rise alarmingly in
the weeks ahead if we factor in asymptomatic patients and rapid tests.
What
next? According to Harvard's professor of immunology and infectious diseases
the only possible method for dealing with the epidemic may be multiple ‘intermittent’
social distancing periods that ease up when cases fall to a certain level and
then are re-imposed when they rise past a key threshold. As time passes and
more of the population gains immunity, the restrictive episodes could be
shorter, with longer intervals between them.
Another
epidemiologist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
asserts that the policy on lockdown is not evidence-based. Instead, the right
way is to protect the old and the frail only which will eventually lead to herd
immunity as a “by-product.” It is paramount to build
herd immunity while shielding the vulnerable.
However,
not a few doctors fear that the flattening of the incidence curve would stop
once the lockdown is lifted. Yet the lockdown cannot be a permanent solution.
We need to work towards herd immunity produced by the infection that is our
only hope. Recalling, that the 2009 HINI influenza epidemic came, stayed for
2-3 months and spontaneously disappeared. Why? As there was a certain level of
herd immunity which was produced by the infection.
Undeniably, till date India has successfully controlled the virus’s
transmission thanks to the Central and State Governments well-coordinated
steps,
mass public awareness with the help of digital
systems, prowess in pharmaceuticals and a
central political command. Yet there could be a rise in death and
destabilization and complicated diseases.
We can learn rich lessons from South Korea and Taiwan which managed to
control the devastation with the help of rapid tests and targeted solutions.
Vietnam has recorded no death from the virus while China has taken help of
digital technology such as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI-ML)
to contain its spread in major cities in its mainland.
Undeniably,
the post-epidemic stage will see the emergence of a new human being, whose
daily behavior habits, thinking and sentiments will differ from what it was
before the Covid outbreak. From being a ‘social animal’ to ‘being scared to go
out in public places’. As social
isolation intensifies amidst the social distancing and WFH (work-from-home)
finds root, digital currency, shopping, gaming and OTT (over-the-top)
television viewership will be the norm and air travel
will go back to being a luxury.
Besides, lifting of restrictions does not signal a return to the
normalcy of our pre-Covid-19 lives. It is rather the beginning of a new normal
--- a way of being that minimises the risks of the virus but allows us to live
and earn our living, A new normal, which
cycles between easing of restrictions along with aggressive public health
measures when the disease wanes, and the application of restrictions when new
outbreaks occur.
Predictably,
the pandemic fear has been afflicted by panic and hysteria. Whereby, people dread
the worst is at hand. The time is ripe for a medical emergency. Our immediate
future will be a combination of “the
hammer and the dance” --- hammer of successive lockdowns followed by digital
dances in which one uses surveillance and testing to find and control
outbreaks.
Crisis
time calls for togetherness as we head into a cautious, rather than a brave,
new world --- with Orwellian overtones. We must have courage and take a
rational view
at known facts and act accordingly. Time to lockout
our fears and fix them, we have to there
is no option. Towards that end we need ‘Effective Emotional Intelligence’ and
care-mongering. What gives? ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News & Feature Alliance)
New Delhi
2 May 2020
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