Political Diary
New Delhi, 3
September 2019
Battle-ing Indo-Pak
Ties
A JINXED PEACE ROAD
By Poonam I Kaushish
Neighbour
or enemy? Both. India-Pakistan relations are like a roller coaster ride. All
depends on which way the political wind is blowing, North or South. Presently,
it’s bellicose and defiant, short of eyeball confrontation with both New Delhi
and Islamabad standing there ground: Don’t mess with us.
It
is a moot point if temperatures will ever come down in Indo-Pak relations post
the bifurcation of Jammu & Kashmir into two Union Territories, J&K and
Ladakh which has completely changed the dynamics of dialogue on Kashmir. Predictably,
Islamabad has downgraded diplomatic ties, suspended bilateral trade and closed
a corridor in its airspace.
Certainly,
the first casualty of this altered scenario is chances of a guftagu have disappeared. For New Delhi there
is now no “outstanding" issue of Kashmir except India’s claim on
Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), which includes Gilgit-Baltistan.
Undeniably,
Modi has changed the rules of the game and is re-writing India’s Pakistan
policy. He seems to be pursuing a ‘strategy of deterrence by punishment’, which
implies that any time Pakistan provokes, be prepared to exact a cost. The idea
here is that if Pakistan realizes that its misadventure against India has a
cost involved then it might be deterred.
In
this heady diplomatic cocktail there is little scope for old fashioned
moderation. Consequently, the prospects of any early “normalization" of
ties with Pakistan have receded.
Questionably,
does Islamabad have the appropriate diplomacy to counter Modi’s drive for
Indian supremacy in the region? The ball lies in Pakistan’s court as it has always
been the trigger of our bilateral relations. It has propagandist options, but
no substantial ones. Therefore, it is unlikely that after being outflanked by India
it will change its policies.
Importantly,
its political frustration and domestic pressures are forcing it to
internationalize India’s unilateral decision on Kashmir and warn of exercising all
options against these “illegal” steps. Of course, it can try to foment
resistance within the Valley and step up terrorism in J&K. But this could
be risky as support to jihadi activities
will allow India to increase pressure on Pakistan in the UN’s Financial Action
Task Force (FATF) besides the danger of retaliation from India, which Pakistan
can ill afford in view of its distressed economic situation.
Pertinently,
three factors could decide Islamabad’s future course. One, how long Kashmir’s
lockdown continues and subsequent protests which might provoke harsh crackdown
and perhaps a new phase of insurgency. Islamabad, could covertly funnel arms
and cash to the protestors leading to tensions intensifying.
Two,
Pakistan would ratcheted its global campaign and raise the ante against India
on Kashmir. So far, its campaign has been unsuccessful, barring
all-weather-friend China, as it suffers from a global image of being the
factory of jihadists. Thus, it may
escalate cross-border firing along the LoC and deploy troops to its eastern
border as a show of force. It has already launched a missile.
Three,
how motivated Pakistan is about remaining off FAFT’s list. The Task Force which
monitors money laundering and terrorist financing had placed Pakistan on a
“gray list” for terrorist financing in 2018. If it concludes Islamabad hasn’t
done enough to combat terrorist financing by October when it meets, Pakistan
runs the risk of being blacklisted which could deter investors from doing
business with it. This would be a big blow for its economy already reeling from
a serious balance-of-payments crisis. Hence, Islamabad needs to limit its
engagements with militants and hold back on sending jihadists to Kashmir until
the FATF meet.
Moreover,
insecure Pakistan faces twin dilemmas of international marginalization due its
economic distress and terror factories and India’s political stability and
growing economy. For Pakistanis fed on the belief, that ‘accepting the status
quo with India is defeat’, has resulted in a perceived ideological perspective
that it has to be at war to stand up and be counted.
This
is forcing the Pakistani army to take calculated military risks against the
backdrop of its nuclear capability as a manifestation of its continued struggle
which it must continue to provoke India. It has
made plain “it is prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfil its obligations
to the Kashmiris”
Do
the present assertive trends of Indian foreign policy portend the likelihood of
an aggressive outcome during Modi’s tenure? The Prime Minister has talked
openly about Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan;
exposed Pakistan’s misdeeds in POK including Gilgit-Baltistan; and suggested
the possibility of relooking at Indus-Water sharing treaty, hitherto considered
unimaginable. Succinctly, debunked the two-steps-forward-one-step-back approach
coupled with backchannel talks which have made India appear timid, confused and
soft.
Where
does all this lead to? True, South Block has no illusions about any dramatic
transformation in Islamabad’s policy towards New Delhi. As matter stands today,
Pakistan has been pushed into a corner, notwithstanding its war mongering. It
suffers from deep mistrust, lack of confidence and is busy generating
artificial illusions about how it intends getting the better of India.
On
its part New Delhi new assertiveness would need all the wisdom and restraint to
ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-Pak script. One way is to adopt the Israeli Defence
Forces strategy in which the aim is to cause the opponent more damage
(quantitatively and qualitatively) than the opponent caused Israel in the same
time span. The fear of punitive retaliation would, it was hoped, delay the next
conflict and restrain the enemy's ambitions.
Pakistan
has got caught between a rock and hard place. The military holds the strings
with a puppet Prime Minister. The nation psyche is military fed on a staple
anti-India tirade since 1947. Make no mistake when it comes to India the army,
ISI, politicians and civil society beyond its Lollywood and Coke studio hi
society have the same view.
Certainly,
in this zero sum game the muscle-flexing, war rhetoric and one-upmanship will
continue till there the core issue of Kashmir is resolved. No one wants war, far from it, but at the
same time Raisina Hill has to make sure Pak-sponsored terrorism and its ISI
masters are given a befitting reply.
The
long-term prospects of Pakistan-India relations will be determined to a large
extent by India’s strategic goals and objectives in the context of the evolving
regional and global security environment. The other part of the equation would
be Pakistan’s policy goals and its handling of this critical relationship.
There
is definitely a strategic imperative of peace between Pakistan and India
because of their status as de facto nuclear powers and the need for them to
focus their energies and resources on the gigantic task of economic development
necessitated by widespread poverty.
Unfortunately,
however, these factors alone will not be able to usher in an era of durable
peace and friendship between the two countries. In all likelihood,
Pakistan-India relations will continue to suffer from recurrent periods of
tensions and strains because of India’s hegemonic designs in South Asia and
outstanding disputes, especially the Kashmir dispute.
Therefore,
genuine friendship between the two countries would remain elusive in the
foreseeable future. The best that can be hoped for is the maintenance of peace
between them and normal good neighbourly relations marked by low level of
tensions and cooperation in various fields on a mutually beneficial basis.
At
the end of the day, neither side – particularly Pakistan, with its crippling
economic crisis – is gunning for a conflict. Clearly, there is little scope of
smoking the peace pipe till Pakistan stops its jihadist machinery. Else the long thorny road to peace will end up
as a peace road to nowhere. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India
News & Feature Alliance)
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