Round The World

New Delhi, 20 September 2011

India-China Strategic Faceoff

MUSCLE DIPLOMATIC POWER PLAY

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Are we witnessing the dawn of an India-China face-off in the South China Sea?  Are current events leading to a new phase of strategic manoeuvring in the high seas between India and China?

Expectedly, officials from both sides exercising diplomatic caution would deny such a scenario. When debates began storming news channels regarding reports of a confrontation between an Indian navy ship and a Chinese vessel off Vietnam’s coast, the External Affairs Ministry called it a “non-event”.

Although, its spokesman took the opportunity to comment, “India supports freedom of navigation in international waters, including in the South China Sea, and the right of passage in accordance with accepted principles of international law. These principles should be respected by all.”

But, of late, events lead one to believe that Beijing is beginning to show a more aggressive attitude concerning its claims to the South China Sea region, thus igniting serious concerns among countries in South-east Asia which also lay claim to different areas of the region. The disputed waters are claimed in whole or in part by Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, in addition to China.

Besides, an emerging India building increasing convergences with ASEAN finds its ambitions threatened by the Chinese aggression. Along-with, extra-regional power US, with a sizeable presence in the region, finds the Chinese moves uncomfortable.

Undoubtedly, the current Chinese objection towards India-Vietnam cooperation to explore oil and gas in the region is only the latest in a series of incidents where Beijing has shown a clearly intended policy to project the South China Sea region as its own backyard, where it would not tolerate other countries. More so, a competitor like India implementing its ambitious drive for energy resources.

China’s official news agency Xinhua said, “Aggressive overseas explorations from the Indian side in the highly sensitive sea, over which China enjoys indisputable sovereignty, might poison its relationship with China, which has been volatile and at times strained.”  

Even an influential Communist Party-run newspaper The Global Times reportedly called on the Chinese Government to act firmly against the move and use “every possible means” to stop the India-Vietnam joint venture in the South China Sea. It warned New Delhi that going ahead with the project would amount to a “serious political provocation” that could “push China to the limit.”

This time, the Indian Government largely known for its diplomatic prudence has shown a welcome assertion of its national interest and its inherent right as a sovereign nation to enter into any contract with another sovereign nation. In this case Vietnam, a country that, of late, has been highly alarmed by China’s policy to maintain “sovereign claim” over the South China Sea.

Further, China has warned countries “outside the region” to stay away from the South China Sea. In a fitting reply, when Foreign Minister Krishna recently made an official trip to Vietnam, India’s intent and resolve to continue with the controversial project was made crystal clear. Krishna told his Vietnam counterpart Pham Binh Minh that India's ONGC Videsh will go ahead with oil and gas exploration in the disputed region or the two offshore blocks which Vietnam claims as its own.

True, the visit was made on a bilateral basis to assess the development of India-Vietnam relations but it ended up garnering more attention for New Delhi’s position towards the South China Sea issue. As a part of its new invigorated ‘Look East’ policy, India’s ties with Vietnam, much to the discomfort of China, has increased to a new level, where economic convergences have begun to show their implications on strategic issues.

According to a recent study by FICCI, “The two-way trade grew more than ten times since 2000 to reach $2.75 billion in 2010 (Indian exports were $1.76 billion and Vietnam’s 991 million). This is expected to exceed $3 billion in 2011.” But more importantly, Vietnamese authorities, according to sources, “fully endorsed” Krishna when he made the point that, despite Beijing's opposition, New Delhi would go ahead with oil and gas exploration in the South China Seas region.

Clearly, India’s strategic and diplomatic manoeuvres in South-east Asia are signs of its intent to play a more substantial role in Asia. This ambition is a result of New Delhi’s rise as one of the major players in the world and a competitor to rising China. As many other States in South-east Asia see a threat in China’s increasing power projection in the South China Sea, India’s increasing closeness to the South-east Asians is a welcome development.

China which largely projects itself as a peaceful nation intent on “peaceful rise” is seen showing its arrogance of power and influence in the disputed South China Sea but does not give any ear to Indian objections regarding Chinese investments and activities in the disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Moreover, China is blatantly involved in heavy investments around India, in Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, raising major concerns among New Delhi’s strategic circles. The Chinese double standard and arrogance was succinctly put forth by an analyst. “While the Chinese do not consider the Indian Ocean to be India's ocean or even India's strategic backyard, they do consider the South and East China seas to be China's seas.”

Plainly, India’s rise as a major Asian power and leading global economic power cannot be seen minus the ascent of another gigantic power in the neighbourhood, People’s Republic of China. Whereby, notwithstanding the huge India-China trade ties, Beijing is concerned with New Delhi’s rise and it makes strategic sense to the Chinese to restrict India to the South Asian region and curtail its expanding voice and influence in the international system.  

Also, Beijing’s increasing military budget and its Navy’s deliberate march towards becoming a blue-water navy, have become a major cause of concern for the US, India and many South-east Asian nations. Beijing's efforts to extend the reach and influence of its military, alongside its hunger for natural resources, have contributed to mounting worries in recent months over the stability of the South China Sea.

Indeed, China projects itself as a reluctant power; its intent is on an official policy that propagates China’s rise as one based on peace and prosperity, one centred on internal growth, with no intentions to disturb the regional or global balance of power. Its relentless drive for power and influence around the world is sought to be disguised under the propaganda of the “Peaceful Rise of China”.

However, the problem is that others, specially countries in its geographical proximity, do not perceive things in the same way. As a response to China’s aggressive assertion in the South China Sea, many South-east Asian nations want a continuance of US primary role in this region. Now, given India’s increasing convergences with these countries along-with the US, Washington-New Delhi’s combined attention should be directed towards assisting these countries to safeguard against any future belligerence from China. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)