Round The World

New Delhi, 8 September 2011

PM’s Dhaka Visit

CEMENTING TIES AMIDST HICCUPS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Indo-Bangladesh ties have seen an upward trend since the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League came to power. Of late, there have been concerted efforts on both sides to arrive at agreements and understandings on various contentious issues, a highlight of which was the first-ever Bangladesh visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Undoubtedly, this visit was seen as highly significant because of its timing and the major agreements on board. From being slated as a ‘historic’ visit that would set a ‘new paradigm’ in Indo-Bangladesh relations. But, domestic constraints played spoiler, leading to doubts over the visit’s success even before Singh landed in Dhaka.

On the cards were two important issues: One, water sharing agreement and unanimity   on the border. Towards that end, five Chief Ministers, namely of Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and West Bengal that share borders with Bangladesh were to accompany the Prime Minister to Dhaka thus lending more legitimacy to the visit.  Indeed, many visits took place to tighten the nuts and bolts of Indo-Bangla ties, including last minute travel by National Security Advisor (NSA) Shivshanker Menon to help fine tune Singh’s visit.

However, this momentous visit became a victim to a last minute ditch by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who refused to accompany the Prime Minister.  She rejected the terms of the Teesta river water sharing agreement that was to be signed with the Sheikh Hasina Government. On the grounds that the agreement terms were detrimental to West Bengal interests, particularly farmers.

Apparently, the deal that was agreed upon would have given Bangladesh 48 per cent of Teesta's waters. But, Mamata believes otherwise i.e. the agreement would  grant Dhaka upwards of 33,000 cusecs of water every year instead of 25,000 cusecs she had agreed. Consequently, raising questions on this ill-timed and last-minute fiasco, as Mamata was regularly updated about the negotiations being held with Dhaka, Menon had reportedly met her on 31 August.

Questionably, why this last minute change of mind, which jeopardized the water sharing agreement? That New Delhi felt would have served as a good precedent and a show of intent and sincerity to solve all outstanding issues in the future.  Specially, as disclosed a top Government official, “No actual figures on river flow were to be fixed at this stage as both countries do not yet have agreed figures. The agreement was only an interim, and would have established principles and a joint mechanism to administer them, not a final settlement.”

Undeniably, Mamata’s ill-advised and juvenile act cast an air of gloom and could have easily derailed the entire purpose of the visit. In fact, the water sharing arrangement was seen as vital by Dhaka and the sudden and dramatic change of programme put New Delhi on the back-foot. Plainly, Bangladesh made known its displeasure whereby last minute calls by both Premiers to correct the situation were made, but to no avail.

Undoubtedly, in a democracy, affected States have a say and hence, the West Bengal Chief Minister needs to be taken into confidence before any water agreement is signed. Also, true, a comprehensive relationship should not be surrendered to set-backs on one single issue, resulting in intense parleys to save the day for both sides.

Essentially the Teesta hic-cup provides leaders and policy makers in New Delhi enough reason to keep open its line of contact with the Bangladeshi Opposition, especially Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which has often accused the Hasina Government of following an overt pro-India policy. She, in all likelihood will use the Teesta issue to attack Indo-Bangladesh convergence.

The Indo-Bangla face saver came in the shape of the equally significant boundary agreement and the exchange of enclaves, given the porous nature of our borders. That have given rise to various anti-national, anti-social elements and many human rights cases. Wherein, North-east insurgents have milked the Indo-Bangladesh border to their advantage. Thus, containing this menace needs a collective effort, including various law enforcement agencies.

However, even the boundary agreement did not come easily, probably an impact of the Teesta pact breaking down. During last-minute deliberations, Bangladeshi officials reportedly objected to the absence of a timeline for the exchange of enclaves, although there was one for adverse possessions. Dhaka apparently wanted simultaneous exchange of enclaves along-with lands in adverse possessions, which New Delhi initially rejected. At the end, Singh’s team relented and graciously agreed to a "simultaneous" exchange of both.

India has 111 enclaves, spread over 17,158 acres, in Bangladesh, with an estimated 150,000 residents; Bangladesh has 51 enclaves, covering 7,110 acres inside India, with a population of about 50,000. In addition, 38 patches of Indian territory spread over 3,000 acres are in Bangladesh’s possession while some 50 patches of Bangladesh territory measuring about 3,345 acres are held by India.

Significantly, this landmark agreement should set the ball rolling in Indo-Bangladesh relations and give ammunition to the Hasina Government to silence her detractors. But the understanding and cooperation developed should be carried forward into further negotiations on the water sharing issue, which is vital for the welfare and development of both nations.

The two leaders also signed a vision statement keeping in mind the long-term ties between the two neighbours. New Delhi agreed to allow duty-free imports of 46 items of ready-made textiles from Bangladesh and responded positively to Dhaka’s request for setting up of a high technology joint venture thermal power plant of 1320 MW capacity at Khulna.

Besides, various memorandums of understandings and cooperation agreements were signed, including in renewable energy, ties between Doordarshan and Bangladesh Television as also New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University and Dhaka University.

Importantly, Manmohan Singh’s visit and the last-minute changes should be a lesson in diplomacy and bilateral relations. Clearly, the understanding arrived at and the cooperation built amidst several constraints should serve as a ‘shock absorber’ in the relationship.

Pertinently, India shares borders with various small countries and apart from a few, many feel insecure and overwhelmed by its size and capabilities, leading to a “big brother” syndrome. An overtly pro-India leader in Premier Sheikh Hasina presents an enviable opportunity and the dividends that it presents for Indo-Bangladesh relations should be grasped with both the hands. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)