Round The World

New Delhi, 6 March 2007

Politics Of Iranian Plan

Nuclear Proliferation at Crossroads

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

This limited success of non-proliferation initiative in the Far East is in stark contrast to failure of the UN Security Council to bring Iran in West Asia to accept its demand for ceasing its nuclear enrichment activities. Iran has so far been defying pressures from the United States, European Union and the UN Security Council to give up uranium enrichment and is unlikely to do so in the foreseeable future.

International linkages in proliferation politics are not a new development. But this time around the Iranian nuclear question is rather complicated. The North Korean success in withstanding the international pressure on its proliferation activities, despite domestic economic and social backwardness, surely would have emboldened Iranian leadership to play its nuclear card hard.

Now the question arises as to whether Pyongyang’s acceptance of non-proliferation principles would deflate Iranian ambition to acquire a full cycle nuclear programme that would some day enable it to build nuclear bombs if so desired. There is no doubt that Tehran does not see North Korea as a role model of nuclear policy, but it is probable that Pyongyang’s decision to embrace non-proliferation would put moral pressure on Tehran and give inspiration to the major powers to seek a similar solution in Iran as well.

In the case of North Korea, the United States, Japan and South Korea were almost united and Russia and China had differing perceptions and approaches to the nuclear question. In the case of Iran too, Russia and China differ with the US and EU member-countries. The tactics and strategies adopted by an international group of nations for promoting nonproliferation in the Korean Peninsula may be ultimately useful with certain modifications to resolve the West Asian nuclear issue.

However, Iranian nuclear programme has a deep linkage with the issues and politics of the Muslim world and the Israeli factor in the Middle East. First of all, the US image in the Muslim world has been going from bad to worse with every passing day. The destruction of Iraq and the inability of the coalition forces to restore order four years after the invasion; continuation of NATO occupying forces in Afghanistan; unpleasant incidents like Abu Ghraib, Danish Cartoon of Prophet Mohammed and Guantanamo Bay; and the continuing struggle of the Palestinians for a homeland have generated intense anti-American sentiments in the Muslim world. Iran’s defiance of the West has definitely received quiet endorsements in the streets of the Muslim world and any strong military measure against Iran could inflame the Muslim dislike of the US in the nook and corner of the globe.

Secondly, the record of US invasion of Iraq in the name of destroying weapons of mass destruction will hunt any US decision to take military action against suspected Iranian nuclear programme. After failing to establish the claim of presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, can the Bush Administration provide credible evidence of Iranian drive for a nuclear weapon capability? Both the Democrats in the US Congress and the American people would demand clear and credible evidence of any Iranian nuclear weapon programme before they support a strong US action against Tehran.

Thirdly, the Bush Administration cannot take any unilateral action in Iran. It did not do so during the first Gulf War, which was fought with an international coalition force. It refrained from doing so even in the second Gulf War (invasion of Iraq) and in the absence of UN support went ahead and formed a willing coalition of forces. Any plan to intervene in Iran would necessarily require a coalition of some sort and it is doubtful if the Bush Administration will be capable enough to raise a credible coalition of willing partners.

Fourthly, the US troops are over-extended in Iraq. The US Congress, dominated by the Democratic Party, is showing unwillingness even for modest troop reinforcement. The NATO forces are deeply involved in Afghanistan and have so far failed to prevent the re-emergence of the Taliban forces. In fact, the US and NATO forces appear to be concerned at the moment about an expected Spring Offensive by the Taliban forces. Pakistan is already under heavy pressure to perform more, although President Musharraf seems to have developed a war fatigue. Can the US and NATO members agree on opening the third –Iran-- in the Muslim World, while things are not happening according to expectations in the two fronts: Iraq and Afghanistan.

Fifthly, the US position in Iraq in 2003 frightened Libya to give up its nuclear weapon ambition and mend fences with the West, but this time the US difficulties in Iraq have emboldened Iran not to budge from its nuclear stance. Significantly, the sectarian violence in Iraq has come to a situation where Washington has little option but to engage Iran in the process to find a solution.

Iran has not stopped its support to militant groups battling American interests in the Middle East, the Iranian regime has not cared to respect US concerns over human rights situation in their country; Iran has not changed its stance on the Palestinian issue and, above all, Tehran has refused to stop uranium enrichment. But the Bush Administration has already signaled that it would make Iran and even Syria parties to a multilateral initiative to address the Iraqi crisis.

If Iran becomes a crucial actor in the efforts to resolve the Iraqi crisis, can it remain a serious target of American non-proliferation offensive? The general impression is that no country wants the emergence of a nuclear Iran. But then similar was the case in the Korean Peninsula. None wanted to see a North Korean bomb, yet Pyongyang went ahead and detonated one. Will Iran become a nuclear weapon power by default? It may not happen now, but if Iran manages to have a full nuclear cycle at home, it can become a nuclear weapon power in due course.---INFA

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