Round The World

New Delhi, 9 January 2025

US Invasion of Venezuela

INDIA’S DIPLOMATIC BALANCING ACT

By Dr. D.K. Giri

(Prof of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions) 

The recent US invasion of Venezuela has sent shockwaves across the globe, sparking intense debates and diplomatic maneuvering. As tensions escalate, India finds itself walking a tightrope, balancing its strategic interests with its commitment to sovereignty of independent countries and non-interference by external powers. 

What led to Donald Trump take military action and capture the President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro? There could be three possible reasons for his action against Maduro. It is not exactly an US invasion, as the American Congress had not authorised the President to take such action. But that is the nature of US politics where President can order the military for any action and take post-facto approval from Congress. Even though Congress does not endorse President’s action, Maduro has been captured and is being trialled under the US law. 

The reasons for invasion include: a kind of revival of Monroe Doctrine of 1823, a strategic concept named after the Fifth President of the United States James Monroe. The Doctrine essentially meant the American dominance of the Western Hemisphere as a distinct sphere of influence for the US while warning European powers against further colonisation or interference in South America. Now, Donald Trump’s action is defined by the US media as ‘Donroe Doctrine’. 

The second is Trump’s idea of pushing back China and Russia in South America; mainly China as it has had massive investment in the oil-rich Venezuela. Almost 80 per cent of Venezuela’s oil was purchased by China. Although China was wary of its investment in the face of American push, the Chinese oil giant, Concord International Oil had just signed a 1b USD contract with Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. 

The third reason could be Venezuela’s oil, 300 billion barrels which constitute 17 per cent of world reserve, which is four times more than the US reserves. Donald Trump with his focus on business was eyeing the Venezuelan oil during his first term itself. However, in his second term, capturing the oil market of Venezuela was his first priority. Although Donald Trump does not profess military intervention, he has been doing so for business interest, be it in Venezuela or Iran. Associated with the oil angle, Trump Administration was also quite wary of the Leftist governments in South America. Venezuela and Cuba remained as eyesores for Trump and his Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio. 

Venezuela has been embroiled in a political crisis since 2013. The opposition-led National Assembly, backed by the US and several Western countries, had challenged the legitimacy of President Nicolás Maduro’s government. The Maduro regime, supported by Russia, China, and other nations, however maintained control over the government. The crisis deepened in 2019 when Juan Guaidó, the Opposition leader, declared himself interim president, citing constitutional grounds. The US, Canada, and several European nations recognised Guaidó's leadership, imposing sanctions on Maduro’s government. Maduro, however, refused to step down, enjoying support from key allies like Russia and China. 

The US has long been critical of Maduro’s government, citing human rights concerns, drug trafficking and alleged electoral fraud. In 2019, the US imposed severe economic sanctions on Venezuela, targeting its oil industry – a critical sector for the country’s economy. It then imposed naval blockade and fired and killed Venezuelans carrying shipment on the ground of drug trafficking. The recent US invasion, justified as a “humanitarian intervention” to oust Maduro became the last straw on the Camel’s back for Trump. 

The invasion has raised questions about international law and the principle of sovereignty. Many experts argue that the US action undermines the United Nations Charter and sets a precarious precedent for interventionism in domestic affairs of sovereign nations. 

India, with significant economic interests in Venezuela, has adopted a cautious approach. New Delhi has abstained from explicitly condemning the US invasion, instead calling for “dialogue and peaceful resolution” of the crisis. India’s stance reflects its energy interests as Venezuela is a key oil supplier to India, and stability in the region is crucial for India’s energy security. In terms of India’s avowed strategic autonomy, New Delhi seeks to maintain its independence in foreign policy, avoiding alignment with any particular bloc and India has consistently upheld the principle of sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs. 

India’s Ambassador to the UN, speaking at the UN Security Council, emphasized the need for a peaceful resolution, urging all parties to engage in dialogue. New Delhi’s approach aims to balance its relations with the US while protecting its interests in Venezuela and maintaining ties with Russia and China. 

The international community is divided.  The US allies Canada and several European nations have implicitly endorsed the invasion by their muted responses. China, Russia, and allies mainly Iran have condemned the invasion, supporting Maduro’s government and sovereignty. China has made the strongest protest and has asked for handing back Maduro to Caracas. It is understandable as Beijing is competing with Washington and its economic interest has been badly hit. 

Furthermore, China was making heavy inroads into South America. At one point, Beijing claimed that there were 24 countries signing up for participating in BRI, the biggest strategic push for world influence of Beijing. Global South countries including India, Brazil, and South Africa, advocate for peaceful resolution and dialogue. Among the South American countries, only Cuba has made the sharp reaction to US action on Venezuela. 

The US invasion of Venezuela has escalated tensions; the crisis may spill over into neighbouring countries, destabilising the region. It undermines international law; the invasion sets a worrying trend for interventionism. It complicates diplomacy as India’s balancing act may be tested as global pressures mount. It raises humanitarian concerns; the situation has led to reports of civilian casualties and displacement, raising concerns about humanitarian access. 

India and Venezuela have traditionally enjoyed cordial ties. Venezuela is a key oil supplier to India, and Indian companies have investments in the country’s oil and gas sector. India had engaged with Maduro’s government on economic cooperation, even as the US and others questioned its legitimacy. However, as the situation unfolds, India faces a delicate balancing act. New Delhi has to protect Indian interests. Ensuring the safety of Indian citizens and investments in Venezuela is the key priority. New Delhi could support multilateral efforts by working with like-minded nations for a peaceful resolution. 

The crisis in Venezuela underscores the complexities of geopolitics, where national interests, sovereignty, and global governance intersect. As India navigates this challenging landscape, it must prioritize its interests, uphold international law, and promote peaceful resolution. This is however a text-book diplomatic position. Dialogue and peaceful resolution as a strategy is trite. The world has been thrown into the long-past strategy of realpolitik which meant might is right. 

The US action in Venezuela is a stark reflection of such strategy. Given the capricious nature of Donald Trump, who likes quick actions and solutions, he may not think of a regime change in Venezuela as the US has burnt its fingers in Iraq and Afghanistan. So, he would like to pull out sooner than later having ensured the oil business for America. In any case, India will continue to walk the diplomatic tight rope for some time to come.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

REWIND

New Delhi, 8 January 2026

From Discord To Concord

By Inder Jit

(Released on 5 January 1982) 

Most people have by now made their New Year resolution. Regrettably, however, there is no sign yet of any resolution for the nation as a whole. Mrs Gandhi as the Prime Minister, did give a call for a united war on poverty in the New Year in her speech at Lucknow on December 30. She also said much else that was good and welcome. The importance of unity and discipline for national progress was underlined and the need to rise above petty prejudices emphasised.  Happily, she almost repeated the famous words of John F Kennedy: "Ask not what the country can do for you. Ask what you can do for the country". But in the same speech she also loaded the dice against any united effort. She denounced the Opposition strongly instead of inviting it on the eve of the New Year to join in a collective effort in tackling the many crises facing the country. The number of Indians living below the poverty line has now gone up to over 50 per cent.

We have thus in the New Year various party resolutions specifically stated and not quite so stated. Notwithstanding all the sugar-coated eloquence, each party is essentially for itself, raising a pertinent question: Can we got them to put country before self? Must the New Year be as distressing as the old? No, it need not. The New Year can be a lot better provided we are willing to make much-needed new resolves. Fortunately, we do not have to go far for an answer, as discovered in the course of my quest for a New Year resolution for India. The answer was provided by the Founding Fathers of our Constitution in the shape of the National Flag, the true meaning of which is largely forgotten by the older generation and is little understood by the new. The flag, which was intended to be a constant reminder of certain values, was adopted by the Constituent Assembly on July 22, 1947. However, it was presented to the nation on behalf of the women of India at the Assembly's historic midnight session on August 14, 1947.

There is no gainsaying the fact that the National Flag is still hoisted from the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day. But all this is now largely ceremonial. The real significance of the Flag is missed even by those who have witnessed the ceremony from year to year. Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose was the first to give a historic call for flying the tri-colour from the ramparts of the Red Fort which alone, in his opinion, would symbolise the liberation of India. Nehru accepted the idea and eloquently implemented it. The National Flag is not merely a horizontal tricolour of deep saffron, pure white and dark green. The chakra in blue in the middle of the white band does not merely represent the charkha. The flag links the past with the present and symbolises all that is good and glorious in Indian tradition and heritage which, in the words of Nehru, enabled the country to overcome degradation from time to time -- and survive through the vast ages.

We cannot do better than to go back to July 22, 1947 and recall what three great Indians -- Nehru, Radhakrishnan and Sarojini Naidu -- said on the occasion. Nehru, who moved the resolution on the National Flag, said in an emotion-charged speech: "Behind the resolution and the Flag which I have the honour to present for adoption lies history, the concentrated history of short span in the nation´s existence...Memories crowd in upon me… We looked up to this flag not only with pride and enthusiasm but with span in a tingling in our veins; also how, when we were sometimes down and out, then again the sight of this flag gave us courage to go on. Many of our comrades who have passed, held on to this flag, some amongst them even unto death, and handed it over as they sank to others to hold it aloft…. It is right and proper that we adopt the symbols of this achievement, the symbol of freedom. We thought of a flag which would in its combination and in its separate parts would somehow represent the spirit of the nation and the tradition of the nation…"

Nehru thought the Flag was "very beautiful" and added: "It has come to symbolise many other things, things of the spirit, things of the mind, that give value to the individual´s life and to the nation´s life, for a nation does not live merely by material things… It is important that we should have the good things of the world… Nevertheless, a nation, and especially a nation like India with an immemorial past, lives by other things also, the things of the spirit. If India had not been associated with these ideals and things of the spirit during these thousands of years, what would India have been? It has gone through a great deal of misery and degradation in the past. But somehow even in the depths of degradation the head of India has been held high and the ideals of India have been high. So we have gone through these tremendous ages and we stand today in proud thankfulness of our past and even more so for the future that it to come… If India had not stood for something very great, I do not think India could have survived …"

Radhakrishnan described the Flag "as a legacy bequeathed to us by the architects of liberty" and said: "Times are hard... The world is full of misunderstandings, suspicions and distrusts. In these difficult days it depends on us under what banner we fight. Here we are putting in the very centre the white, the white of the Sun's rays. The white means the path of light. There is darkness even at noon as some people have urged, but it is necessary for us to dissipate these clouds of darkness and control our conduct by the ideal light, the light of truth, of transparent simplicity which is illustrated by the colour of white. We cannot attain purity, we cannot gain our goal of truth, unless we walk in the path of virtue. The Asoka's wheel represents to us the wheel of the Law, the wheel of the Dharma. Truth can be gained only by the pursuit of the path of Dharma, by the practice of virtue. Truth -- Satya, Dharma -- Virtue, these ought to be the controlling principles of all those who work under this Flag...

"The red, the orange, the Bhagwa colour represents the spirit of renunciation. It is said: All forms of renunciation are to be embodied in Raja Dharma. Philosophers must be Kings. Our leaders must be disinterested. They must be dedicated spirits. They must be people who are imbued with the spirit of renunciation which that saffron colour has transmitted to us from the beginning of our history. That stands for the fact that the world belongs not to the wealthy, not to the prosperous but to the meek and the humble, the dedicated and the detached… If we are not imbued with that spirit of renunciation in these difficult days, we will again go under. The green. The green is there--our relation to the soil, our relations to the plant life here on which all other life depends. We must build our Paradise here on this green earth. If we are to succeed in this enterprise, we must be guided by truth (white), practise virtue (wheel), adopt the method of self-control and renunciation (saffron)."

Sarojini Naidu had no intention to speak. But she agreed when some members clamoured that they were eager to hear "Bul-bule Hind" and the President of the Assembly, Dr. Rajendra Prasad, said: "I will call her at the end. I am sure it will be the sweet speech and we should, according to our old custom, end with sweets". Said Mrs Naidu: "Today, I ask one and all to honour this Flag… That wheel, what does it represent? It represents the Dharma of my illustrious and beloved leader Mahatma Gandhi and the wheel of time that marches and marches and marches without hesitation and without halt? Does it not represent eternity? Does it not represent the human mind? Who shall live under the flag without thinking of the common India… Remember under this flag there is no prince and there is no peasant, there is no rich and there is no poor. There is no privilege. There is only duty and responsibility and sacrifice. .. Men and women of reborn India, rise and salute this Flag!"

There is need today to salute the Flag again – a flag which represents India and not any party or individual. This is all the more necessary at a time when our people are inclined to forget that institutions are infinitely more important than any individual, howsoever great. Most of us callously ignore the caution which John Stewart Mill wanted observed by all those interested in the maintenance of democracy – a caution which was rewarded and emphasised by Dr. Ambedkar in the Indian context at the concluding session of the Constituent Assembly on November 25, 1949. He said there was nothing wrong in being grateful to great men who had rendered lifelong services to the country. But there were limits to gratefulness. He added: "For in India, Bhakti or what may be called the path of devotion or hero-worship, plays a part in its politics which is unequalled in magnitude by the part it plays in politics in any other country in the world. Bhakti in religion may be a road to salvation of the soul. But in politics, Bhakti or hero-worship is a sure road to degradation or eventual dictatorship."

Old is not necessarily gold. But truth is fundamental. Mrs Gandhi is today the undisputed leader of India. She and her party wield more power than any other democratically-elected Government. Nevertheless, they alone cannot tackle the deepening crises facing the country. India can meet the challenge successfully through what Mrs Gandhi herself described as unity and discipline. However, this will be possible only if Mrs Gandhi provides the required leadership and restores to our society time-honoured values, which today lie in a shambles. John Kennedy's words will make sense to our people only if ministers, too, will think of their ministries not in terms of what they can get out of them but in terms of what they can give. The same applies to our legislators, bureaucrats, industrialists, businessmen and a whole host of others. Unity can be forged on the basis of a fresh commitment to truth, virtue, simplicity, discipline and renunciation. We would, therefore, do well to reaffirm our commitment in the New Year to the flag and the basic values it represents. This would constitute an overdue step of getting India to move from national discord to national concord.---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Open Forum

New Delhi, 7 January 2026 

Resilient Economy

INDIA SET TO FACE CHALLENGES

By Dhurjati Mukherjee 

With the onset of the new year, it must be admitted that the trends appear quite encouraging. The pacts with Oman and New Zealand in December can be said to be favourable for India and specially in a critical geopolitical situation with a 50 percent tariff imposed by the US still hanging over the country. India has steadily overcome the problem and has moved ahead, overtaking Japan as the world’s fourth largest economy with GDP valued at $4.18 trillion and is steadily on track to replace Germany by 2030 as the third largest economy.   

The trade deals are no doubt encouraging and, according to Prime Minister Modi, these “will create many new opportunities for growth, innovation and employment for our youth”. Moreover, experts feel that the new year augurs well as 2025 witnessed pushed through one of the most expansive reform agendas in recent years, overhauling tax laws, labour rules, business regulations as the government sought to improve governance and reduce compliance costs to attract investment and position the economy for long term growth. 

Significantly, the Indian economy grew at 8.2 percent in the July-Sept. quarter as a strong comeback in the manufacturing sector and robust services activity helped it clock the fastest pace of expansion in six quarters. With the Reserve Bank of India cutting repo rates by 26 basis points, resulting in softening of home loan rates, the trend is obviously quite encouraging and augurs well for the economy, more so in such geopolitical conditions, which are not so favourable. According to Modi, “it reflects the impact of pro-growth policies and reforms. It also reflects the hard work and enterprise of our people”. 

Added to this is the recent report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which called for structural reforms to support India’s economic development and encouraged the government to build human capital, boost female labour force participation, maintain its public investment momentum and strengthen the business environment. The IMF board noted that deeper trade integration would strengthen India’s competitiveness and attract more foreign investment while greater focus on R&D and innovation would support productivity-led growth. Advancing the green transition, supported by expanded access to concessional financing was also highlighted towards moving to resilient growth. 

The very fact that the report acknowledged India’s strong economic performance and resilience which benefited from sound macroeconomic policies and reforms are indicative of a positive trend in the economy. The recent spurt in growth may be attributed to the result of push factors right from the Union budget’s tax cuts that were followed by the goods and service tax reforms and the impact of these may also be felt in the third quarter as well. Thus, an annual growth rate of over 7 percent has been projected by the RBI for the current fiscal. However, what is of concern is the weakening of the rupee with merchandise imports outpacing exports and FDI slowing amid global uncertainty. 

It goes without saying that India has to emerge as a strong manufacturing hub with low wage possibilities. While there is much talk of the hire and fire policy being implemented as also keeping a check on wages of workers to compete with competitors like Bangladesh, Vietnam and even China, it needs to be pointed out that depriving workers in the unorganized sector cannot be a solution. On the other hand, the use of low-cost technology solutions may be inducted to meet quality parameters which find global acceptance. At same time, the present labour reforms are in the right spirit and may not deprive workers.   

Analysing the economic situation, it can be said to be quite encouraging with the government eager to make investments in various specialised areas, keeping in view the need for import substitution. The special focus on indigenous defence production will boost the economy in the coming few years as experts feel that India may become a mid-sized exporter in the next three years or so. Already the country has made considerable progress in shipbuilding and manufacture of small aircraft and helicopters. According to the central government, the country’s indigenous defence production hit a record Rs 127,434 crore in 2023-24, a 174 per cent surge from Rs 46,429 crore in 2014-15. India is on track to achieve a target of Rs 1.75 lakh crore in defence production in the current fiscal year.  

However, what is needed is additional efforts by the private sector to boost manufacture through modernisation and expansion of existing units, which, to an extent, has already started. The fund raising by companies and the induction of technology and the much talked about AI may go into manufacturing of large products to make them globally acceptable as per international standards. The Tier-II and Tier-III should be the new engines of growth where, in most cities, infrastructure has vastly improved. In these cities, private sector is already quite active and there needs to be a further boost to manufacturing.  

In the new year, areas of concern are the weakening rupee, continued flight of foreign portfolio investors etc. Certain things need to be given priority, the most important being the green transition. While the power sector is under the active consideration of the government, controlling emissions in the transport sector must be seriously considered. Also, efforts would have to be made to increase female participation in the labour force, as rightly pointed out by the IMF. The very recent opening of nuclear power to private investors offers a big opportunity to big corporate houses to plan something in this direction. 

Meanwhile, the Centre is expected to give a thrust to capital expenditure in the forthcoming budget, hoping that a multiplier effect along with higher consumption demand will boost investment and economic activity. The focus will be on Railways, which may get a higher budgetary allocation of around Rs 2.7 lakh crore in the next fiscal, considering the increased number of projects against Rs 2.5 lakh crore allocated in the current financial year. Laying new tracks and procurement of modern coaches will obviously get priority in the increased allocations. Recently,the industry body CII urged the government to push institutional reforms and fiscal consolidation in the budget and this momentum must continue. All this portends to an encouraging trend, and it can’t be denied that the Indian economy is gaining in strength as a major global force.---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

Spotlight

New Delhi, 3 January 2025

2026 China Forecast

STABILITY UNDER CONTROL

By Maciej Gaca

(Expert, Centre For International Relations, Poland) 

The year 2025 did not bring China the strategic shift or adjustment to its governance model that some external observers had anticipated. From a systemic perspective, it was rather a year of completion of the direction that had become clearly outlined after 2020 and was subsequently confirmed in Party documents and institutional practice. Instead of signals of liberalisation or a technocratic reset, a consistent consolidation of centralisation and control mechanisms was visible. 

Accordingly, 2026 does not appear to be a turning point, but rather the first full year of operation of the mechanisms that were gradually implemented and tested between 2020-2025. The transition from the adjustment phase to routine is of crucial prognostic significance. It means that state actions will no longer be justified by the exceptional nature of the situation but presented as a standard way of governing. 

China is not in a transitional state after 2025. Rather, it is entering a period of stabilisation in a model that combines high short-term resilience with decreasing adaptive flexibility. The state apparatus remains capable of absorbing shocks and imposing order, but it is increasingly difficult to generate development impulses independent of the decision-making center. This paradox of stability achieved at the expense of dynamism is a key starting point for 2026 forecast. 

Power Architecture

Analysing China’s power architecture requires a shift away from the classic division between party and state as distinct spheres. In governance, this boundary has been systematically blurred in recent years, with the party remaining the key decision-making entity, simultaneously acting as the political center, cadre apparatus, and overarching institutional regulator. In this arrangement, the state functions as the executive, while law and technology serve as tools for regulating behavior. 

In 2026, the state no longer functions as an autonomous political actor. Its role is to operationally implement decisions made within party structures and to manage its consequences. This is evident in both economic policy and internal security. Ministries, local authorities, and regulatory agencies operate within increasingly narrow discretionary limits, and the system of personnel accountability rewards procedural compliance over initiative. 

Law plays a special role in the architecture of power. The concept of the rule of law has not been abandoned, but rather reinterpreted. Law ceases to function as a boundary of power and begins to operate as an instrument for managing behavior. Expanding the definitions of state security, public order, and national interest allows for the inclusion of increasingly broader areas of social and economic life in the sphere of security-related regulations. 

This logic is evident in both central legislation, implementing regulations, and judicial practice. The authorities do not communicate the uniqueness of these solutions but present them as part of normalising the system in the face of new threats. As a result, the 2026 law stabilises the system, but at the expense of flexibility and trust. Stability relies increasingly on effective enforcement and less on social acceptance. 

The fourth pillar of government architecture is technology. Data analysis systems, digital infrastructure, and monitoring tools are being integrated with the administrative and legal apparatus. Technology functions not as an autonomous sector of innovation, but as an infrastructure of governance. The power architecture in China is therefore characterised by a high degree of control and short-term stability, while limiting capacity for self-correction. The system remains functional, but increasingly expensive to maintain. 

The Economy

China’s economic forecast requires adjustments to 2025 estimates, not because the system’s fundamental parameters have changed, but because the growth management mechanism, which was still considered a temporary solution in 2025, has become entrenched. It becomes part of permanent political and economic architecture. 

In 2025, the authorities’ primary goal was to prevent a sharp slowdown and maintain growth at a politically acceptable level. Their instruments included selective credit support, local fiscal interventions, real estate market control, and stabilisation of the financial sector. These measures mitigated the risk of a systemic crisis but failed to unleash new sources of growth dynamics. Therefore, 2026 begins in conditions of relative stability, but without any indication of structural transformation. 

Economic growth will increasingly be driven by administrative decisions rather than market processes. The projected growth rate, around 4–4.5%, reflects the state’s ability to allocate credit, steer investments, and mitigate financial risks. The real estate sector remains an area of managed stabilisation. The goal is not to return to the expansion model of a decade ago, but to limit balance sheet effects and prevent debt escalation. 

One of the key elements of the 2025-2026 forecast revision is continuation of weak domestic consumption. The authorities have not opted for broad redistributive measures that could significantly boost demand. Controlling fiscal and financial risks remains a priority, even at the expense of slower domestic demand growth. This means that consumption will not become the main driver of growth in 2026. 

From an international perspective, China will remain an active exporter, and its trade surplus will be a pillar of macroeconomic stability. At the same time, friction with trading partners will increase, stemming from the perception of the Chinese model as asymmetric and subsidised. For the EU, this means further pressure on protective and regulatory instruments. 

Technology, Law & Security

In China law, technology, and security form a coherent governance system, with each element mutually reinforcing. Law does not function as a neutral framework, but rather as an instrument for regulating behavior. Technology enhances the effectiveness of enforcement, and security serves as the overarching interpretative category for political and regulatory decisions. 

The phenomenon of lawfare—understood as the strategic use of law to achieve state goals—is structural in nature in China. Regulations regarding data, cybersecurity, the activities of foreign entities, and academic cooperation are not responses to individual threats, but rather elements of a lasting institutional order. Law acts preventively here, limiting actors’ room for maneuver even before open conflict erupts. 

Technology serves as the infrastructure for this model. Data analysis systems, digital platforms, and monitoring tools enable targeted enforcement and early identification of problematic behavior. In 2026, technology is not an area of deregulation, but one of the main channels for consolidating control. 

China is promoting its own approach to the relationship between the state, technology, and the market through infrastructure projects, technical standards, and international forums. This process does not lead to an immediate change in global rules, but rather gradually increases the acceptability of solutions that strengthen the state’s role in information management. 

Foreign Policy

Chinese foreign policy remains driven by the logic of mitigating systemic risks. Beijing avoids actions that would lead to irreversible confrontation, preferring to gradually push the boundaries of acceptable behavior. This strategy relies on actions below the threshold of open conflict. 

Taiwan remains the most important area of this policy. The pressure is multidimensional: military, economic, informational, and legal. Its goal is not to achieve a quick resolution, but rather to gradually narrow Taipei’s decision-making space and normalise China’s presence in the island’s surroundings. 

The war in Ukraine serves as a source of observation for Beijing, not a model to be replicated. The scale of sanctions, the economic costs, and the long-term mobilisation of the West all serve as arguments for caution. At the same time, the conflict is being used in relations with Europe as part of a narrative of responsibility and need for stabilisation. China's actions do not take the form of an overt threat, but rather rely on the selective exploitation of economic, regulatory, and political dependencies. ---INFA 

(Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)