Events & Issues

New Delhi, 24 May 2010

Australian Uranium

INDIA AWAITS CHANGE OF POLICY

By Dr PK Vasudeva

India is the sixth largest energy consumer in the world, accounting for 3.4 per cent of the global energy consumption. The demand for energy has grown at an average of 3.6 per cent per annum over the past 30 years due to the fast economic growth of the country. In March 2009, the installed power generation capacity of India stood at 147,000 MW while the per capita power consumption stood at 612 kwh.

The country's annual power production increased from about 190 billion kwh in 1986 to more than 680 billion kwh in 2006. The UPA-II government has set an ambitious target to add approximately 78,000 MW of installed generation capacity by 2012. This is in view of an estimate that the total demand for electricity in India is expected to cross 950,000 MW by 2030.

About 75 per cent of the electricity consumed is generated by thermal power plants, 21 per cent by hydroelectric power plants and 4 per cent by nuclear power plants. More than 50 per cent of the commercial energy demand is met through the country's vast coal reserves. It has also invested heavily in recent years on renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar energy. As of 2008, India's installed wind power generation capacity stood at 9,655 MW. In July 2009, the country unveiled a $19 billion-plan to produce 20,000 MW of solar power by 2020. Additionally, it has committed massive amount of funds for the construction of various nuclear reactors, which would generate at least 30,000 MW. 

Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydro and renewable sources of energy. As of 2010, India has 19 nuclear power plants in operation generating 4,560 MW while four other are under construction and are expected to generate an additional 2,720 MW. 

Following a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in September 2008 which allowed it to commence international nuclear trade, India has signed nuclear deals with several other countries including France, the US, the UK, Canada, Namibia, Mongolia, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and Russia (2000 tonnes of nuclear fuel) except Australia, which has yet to agree for the sale of its rich and low cost Uranium to India. 

New Delhi now envisages increasing the contribution of nuclear power to overall electricity generation capacity from 4.2 per cent to 9 per cent within 25 years. In 2010, India's installed nuclear power generation capacity will increase to 6,000 MW. As of 2009, India stands ninth in the world in terms of the number of operational nuclear power reactors. 

The country has one of the lowest per capita consumption of energy and the highest economic growth next to China. It has an urgent requirement for additional sources of ‘clean’ energy in order to develop without contributing overly to global warming and this links up to the wider Australian mindset of reducing carbon emissions to save the planet.

Australia holds approximately 30 per cent of the worlds estimated low-cost uranium reserves at more than 50 known economic deposits and minor occurrences. Significantly sized deposits exist in the far north of the Northern Territory, northern and central Western Australia and north-western Queensland and in central South Australia. Exploration by both domestic and foreign companies is continuing to expand. India’s needs of Uranium at the lowest cost from Australia could be a big boost for the much-needed nuclear energy.

Australia is likely to have a new Government in place after the next federal elections this year. What are the chances of the present Labour party leader Prime Minister Kevin Rudd winning the elections and getting re-elected? He is most likely to stick to his banal stand of refusing to sell the most-needed Uranium to India because he wants India to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which is irrelevant after the civil nuclear deal with the US in place and waiver from NSG.

The budget announced by the Labour party this year has brought down the image of Rudd by 11 per cent which indicates that the present government is not popular with the people. Hence the chances of the Liberal party coming to power are bright and so are the chances of the cheapest uranium sale to India.

The Labour party’s refusal to sell uranium to India is more due to the pre-historic mindset of a few Labour party members and their dogmas which have less to do with their so-called commitment to NPT. Whatever paeans we may sing to each other the fact is the Rudd Government has failed on its commitment to take Australia-India relationship to the forefront of top 10 bilateral relationships. 

When Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith and Rudd told New Delhi that there was bipartisan support in Canberra for refusal to sell uranium to India they were not forthcoming and were obviously thinking that their Indian counterparts and the media are naïve. At that time, they were exposing their personal ideologies rather than presenting the majority view of their people. One of the reasons why Indian media is refusing to listen to the Australian establishment for students’ racial issues is that the Rudd government has been consistently camouflaging facts.

In the last elections, the Liberal party managed to get 36.7 per cent of the votes while the Labour received 43.4 per cent. The suggestion that there was a bipartisan support for refusal to sell uranium to India was a ‘blatant lie’. Unfortunately, the Liberal party under John Howard did change the policy to sell uranium to India only in the last phase of campaigning. However, the inputs from independent think tank and bureaucracy in Australia clearly show that they wanted to engage New Delhi as they had realized unlimited potential of uranium exports to overcome their dwindling economy due to the recession.

By refusing to sell uranium to India, the Labour has lost a big opportunity and failed to exploit advantage Australian companies had in this sector thus putting their exporters at a disadvantage. The Australian-Indian voters which are about one million need to keep in mind that Kevin Rudd has not yet personally appeared at any of the Indian community or business functions, even after four years in office. If he had any feelings for the Australian-Indian community, he would have certainly made attempts to at least attend one such function where he has been repeatedly invited.

With the elections due in Australia, let the Australian-Indian community vote for the right party that helps in maintaining good relations with New Delhi besides exporting uranium. So far, the Liberal party leaders have openly supported the sale of uranium to India and maintaining of good relations. The poll results will be keenly watched by New Delhi. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 22 May 2010

Mamata Or Mulayam

UPA II: CAUGHT IN VORTEX OF GAME-CHANGERS?

By Poonam I Kaushish

Honeymoon or heartache? Lexicons used to describe one year of the Congress-led UPA II Government. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ‘report card’ at his press conference yesterday would have us believe it’s been 365 days of a romantic celebratory. Ably supplemented by Congress drumbeaters who loudly proclaim ‘All is well’. The Opposition dubs it a delusionary disaster. A period of dysfunctional Government compounded by coalition blues, politics of deceit and riddled by scams.  Raising a moot point: Is the UPA II and the Congress caught in the vortex of game-changers?

Undoubtedly, the over 200-plus Lok Sabha seats for the Congress in the 2009 General Elections underscored the chimera that the Congress could run successful coalition Governments. Had a thriving marriage of division of power between Party President Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh. No matter the sniggers of the “power behind the throne.” And invoked the people’s trust.

So what soured? Nearly everything. One, the Congress could not handle the success. A huge element of arrogance seeped in along-with its trademark cynicism of opportunistic alliances, crony capitalism and fake socialist credentials leading to a disillusioned aam aadmi. Wherein sadly governance took a back seat and political management ruled the roost.

From the beginning, it was obvious that the Congress shared an uneasy relationship with the three of its regional allies, Mamata’s Trinimool, Pawar’s NCP and Karunanidhi’s DMK. One year down the line the ties are frayed at the edges. The rift between Congress and Trinamool over seat-sharing for Kolkata municipal polls brought to the fore the tenuous relations between the Congress and the Trinamul. The big question is if they'll stay together for the assembly election in 2011.

The DMK is plagued with a serious palace war. Not only a battle for political succession but also for sharing the profits of the office. By turning of a blind eye to the allegations against Raja over the 2G spectrum scam might help the Congress keep the DMK on its side but it has hit hard Manmohan Singh image of probity. As also shows that it is the DMK, and not the PM who decides who will be a Minister. It is no secret that the NCP shares a relationship of compulsion with the Congress both at the Centre and State.

In fact, matters came to the fore during the Budget session, when the Government suddenly realised that it had a slender majority of three in the Lok Sabha and was heavily outnumbered in the Rajya Sabha. So it took recourse to Congress politics of deceit and manipulative politics. Made plain by using the CBI to further its partisan purposes.

The Government agreed to reconsider the DA case pending against Mayawati and affidavits of Mulayam were changed. The fallout? Both agreed to support the Government on the Opposition-sponsored cut motions on the finance Bill.  It is a different matter that this cosying up to the Dalit czarina means that the Congress has undercut Rahul Gandhi's efforts to rebuild the Party's base in UP.

As for the SP, by offering himself as partner Mulayam decision may smack of boldness but it also underlines the Party's dwindling fortunes in UP. From being a major power player, he now seems inclined to strike a bargain with UPA on any terms, notwithstanding that the UP race is essentially between the Congress and BSP. Ever since he was ejected from power from UP in 2007, Mulayam has been eyeing a foothold in the UPA. Some influence at the Centre could help the SP recover ground in UP where Assembly elections are slated in 2012. Its desperation to get close to the UPA also stems from the fear that the Congress and the BSP may work together to marginalise it further.

From the Congress viewpoint faced with a sulking Trinamool it has  adroitly lined up the Samajwadi in case Mamata walks out of the coalition and the BSP acts pricey. Whatever the permutations are the Congress has reason to feel happy. The 13-Party Opposition unity ahead of the cut motion has dissipated. The non-UPA, non-NDA front the Left attempted to build with the SP and the RJD has not materialised. It has successfully wooed back estranged Mandal friends angered by the Government ramming the Women's Reservation Bill through the Rajya Sabha with the caste card.

True, with a divided Opposition and allies-in-waiting, the Government has the space to breathe easy, at least for now. However, in terms of cost-benefit analysis it has lost. Not only has it damaged the credibility of institutions like the CBI to remain in power, but by looking the other way over scandals like 2G spectrum and ensuring that the perpetrators are held accountable it has exposed its dysfunctional side and debilitating weakness for power.

Two, there seems to be a growing visible disconnect between Sonia and the Prime Minister. The body language and eloquent silence during the introduction of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill and caste census in the Lok Sabha said it all. Congressmen made plain their discomfort over the Bill which caps the liability for nuclear accidents and lets the suppliers and designers of N-equipment off the liability hook.

With regard to introducing caste in the census enumerations it was clear that while the Government was unwilling to take this dangerously divisive step as evident from Singh's comment that the Cabinet would consider it, Sonia asserted her ‘social justice’ leaning.

Bluntly, the 'caste in census' card is intended to persuade the Yadav duo --Lalu and Mulayam -- to continue backing the Government from outside. So what if it sets India back a century. Hurting as there are from Sonia forcefully ramming through the women's Reservation Bill in the Rajya Sabha despite their vociferous stalling of both Houses of Parliament. All to woo women and the middle class vote-banks.

Further, it is no secret the Congress is uncomfortable with the PM’s perceived wilting under US pressure on the N-issue, resumption of dialogue with Pakistan and the Home Minister’s strong pro-activism over dealing with the Naxalite menace. The comments of senior leaders like Digvijay Singh  and Mani Shankar Aiyar suggest a marked difference in approach. Add to this Singh’s reputation as an economic PM has taken a beating. The Government has failed to bring down sky-rocketing prices and run-away inflation. More. The indiscretions of Tharoor, Jairam Ramesh and MPs in support of khap panchayats buttress the image of  a PM not in control.

What next? Importantly, one year is not a long time in politics provided both Sonia and Manmohan Singh collectively have the will to make amends, sternly deal with taciturn allies and new-found fair-weather friends out to extract their pound of flesh. They cannot run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

Clearly, none doubt Sonia and Singh’s sincerity to deliver good governance but sadly there is a marked visible disconnect between the two. The time has come for them to collectively rectify the flaws in governance, redeem the Congress-led UPA II’s goodwill and insure that the benefits of various measures accrue to the aam aadmi . But for that to happen it is imperative to amputate ties with phony leaders dump its allies marrying a Else it will be remembered as a Government wherein governance went for a toss and political management ruled the roost. Replete with a culture of crony capitalism, opportunistic covenants dominated by political patronage and murky deals. Hail the game-changers! ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Sunday Reading

New Delhi, 21 May 2010

Lead Poisoning

A SILENT KILLER

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Lead pollution from a newly-opened and unlicensed manganese smelter affected about 1300 children in China’s south-eastern Hunan province, reveals a recent report.  Though the smelter has closed down, tests found elevated levels of lead in the blood of 1354 children or about 7 in 10 children who were examined. Additionally, reports of poisoning of a similar incident occurred in Shaanxi province where state media found 851 children living near the nation’s fourth largest smelter had tested positive for lead poisoning.

Lead is a silent killer. Exposure to even small amounts of lead can have long-term and measurable effects in children and adults as once absorbed in the bloodstream, it can affect the liver, kidney, renal colic, haemoglobin content, central nervous system, IQ etc. This has been confirmed in a study, part of an international research project titled: Lead levels in new enamel paints from Asia, Africa and South America. The study found that in normal yellow paints available in Kolkata, the average lead concentration is as high as 84,456 ppm (parts per million) in place of the international standards, which is 600 ppm.

The Indian part of the research was anchored by the National Referral Centre for Lead Poisoning in India (NRCLPI) and its West Bengal branch collected 58 sample brands available in the open market. The tests also revealed that yellow paint has average lead concentration of 84,456 ppm, followed by79,609 ppm for orange, 30,609 ppm for red and 28,109 for green with only 1299 for white. Bright and flashy colours with greater colour pigment concentration in them were found to be more harmful.  The study suggested to go for lead-free paints and if this was not available, one should choose less harmful colours such as white and blue.   

According to the study, India ranks on the higher side in average lead concentration (29,660 ppm), while Singapore registered the least amount of lead in its paints. Equador with 31, 960 ppm topped the list. Most of the Third World countries were found to have high lead concentrations in paints.

Going into the details of lead poisoning, it is said that this may be caused by months or years of exposure to small amounts of lead at home or work or exposure to higher concentrations. The most common source of lead exposure for children is lead-based paint, dust and soil that may be contaminated. Other sources of lead exposure include contaminated air, including industrial emission, water and soil; alternative medicines and supplements such as vitamins from India; food or juice stored in cans made with lead or glazed with lead-based glazes and working with stained glass, lead-based models. Though no figures for India are available, it is estimated that lead affects around 310,000 children in the US.

The general physical symptoms in children and adults when lead poisoning is severe are: stomach aches, cramping, constipation or diarrhea; nausea and/or vomiting; persistent unexplained fatigue; headache; and muscle weakness  

Children with chronic low blood lead levels who may not have obvious symptoms of lead poisoning may have learning problems and be smaller in size than children their age who do not have low to moderate levels of lead poisoning. Studies conducted in the West have shown that declines in the IQ can even be seen in children with blood lead concentrations below 10 micrograms of lead per decilitre of blood (10 mcg/dL), the level of concern by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the U.S. Center for Disease Control & Prevention.

The behavioural symptoms in children include irritability or aggressiveness, impulsiveness apart from learning problems and lack of appetite while for adults these are more or less the same but also include memory loss and inability to concentrate.  In severe cases, paralysis, swelling of the brain, seizers, coma and even death could take place.

Neurological problems may also occur to those affected by lead poisoning, including seizures and paralysis in extreme cases. There are also reports that excessive lead consumption could also enter the brain leading to damage in the central nervous system. Dangers of exposure to lead in pregnant women reveal that there could be pre-term delivery; low-birth weight of the new born and miscarriage and stillbirth. If the lead enters the foetus through placenta of the mother it would cause serious damage to nervous system and brains of unborn children.

Obviously lead poisoning can be prevented by removing the source of lead in the house or at the workplace. It has been found that older buildings in traditional societies such as India had lead-based paint and these are vulnerable areas. There is also a need to avoid natural medicines or supplements such as herbs or vitamins, cosmetics like surma, food such as vegetables grown in contaminated soil or food from soldered cans, water from faucets in homes with lead or lead-soldered copper pipes and polluted air near smelters.

Balanced nutrition may prevent lead poisoning. Vitamin C, iron, zinc, calcium and phosphorus make it likely for the body to absorb lead. It is thus essential particularly for children to get enough of these nutrients in their daily food. Frequent meals or snacks prevent lead poisoning because lead is not easily absorbed on a full stomach. It may also be mentioned here that people who eat high-fat diets absorb more lead as those with iron deficiency.

Often these efforts may not reduce lead levels in the human body. If lead levels are very high, chelation therapy may be used. The therapy involves taking medicines that bind to lead in the body and help speed its implementation through the kidneys. 

Indeed, there is an imperative need to generate awareness among the people regarding these facts so that children could be prevented from lead contamination. Moreover, frequent checks are needed on the paints manufacturers and other industrial users of lead so that they are forced to do away with the dangerous metal. The role of voluntary organizations in generating mass awareness is too vital at this stage as investigations reveal that even the highly educated in the metro cities are not quite aware of the severe potential of lead poisoning on human health. Let lead not play havoc with our lives. -- INFA      

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The World

New Delhi, 19 May 2010

Iran N-Swap Deal

REBUFF TO US, ECLIPSES G-15 MEET

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

In a major rebuff to the United States and its allies who were preparing grounds for fresh sanctions on Iran, the Iranian government has signed a nuclear swap deal with Brazil and Turkey. The US has been at loggerheads with the Iranian government over their differences on the latter’s nuclear programme. Tehran categorically maintains that it is meant for peaceful purposes while the US and its European allies are not satisfied with its rationale.

The deal announced just before the commencement of the 14^th G-15 summit eclipsed the general proceedings. The G-15, a grouping of major developing countries, meets to discuss and explore areas of cooperation on important and relevant issues among the member countries. But, the trilateral agreement that Iran, Brazil and Turkey managed to hammer out became the toast of Tehran. It caught the frenzy of all forms of media, with little bites left for the summit.

Even before the summit rolled on, it was clear to any discerning eye that the Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was a man on a mission. He seemed to be determined to be the one to end the impasse over the Iranian nuclear programme, and at the same time, raise his standing as a leader of some reckoning in international politics.

As of now, with the successful signing of the deal, being projected as a fitting reply to the sanctions proposal of the American-led alliance, he seems to have scored on both the fields. Brazil, like India, is also a big time promoter of making the UN Security Council more inclusive. President Lula has been vocal about his differences with the western nations regarding the Iranian dilemma and he would be beaming with pride as Tehran agreed to a major nuclear fuel swap deal.

According to Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Tehran would ship its low enriched uranium batches to Turkey once the Vienna Group (consisting Russia, France, the US and IAEA) state their official approval of the deal. The Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said that the Tehran government agreed to a draft proposal whereby Iran will send some 1200 kg of its 3.5 per cent enriched uranium over to Turkey in exchange for a total of 120 kg of 20 per cent enriched fuel to be used in the Tehran research reactor.

Both Brazil and Turkey, non-permanent members of the UN Security Council have been the major force behind this agreement that aims to cut the fangs of the western countries determined on passing “biting” sanctions against Iran. Many developing countries, including India, are not really in favour of crippling sanctions which, they feel, would only end up harming the common people.

The new deal has been projected as opening new vistas for diplomacy and constructive processes in solving the Iranian quagmire, but the American-led alliance seems hardly pleased with the result and reports have suggested that the drive towards sanctions will not slow down as a result of the agreement. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley commented, “It remains to see, and this is what we will be working through in coming days, what does this actually represents.  There are those who might characterize this as a breakthrough.  I think we remain skeptical that this represents anything fundamentally new.”

For the record, the deal has been struck while the almost month-long Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference is underway in New York City. And in a quick counter-attack to the deal supposed to have deepened the divide in the UN Security Council over the issue of sanctions against Iran, the US has upped the ante. Among the veto-welding powers, China and Russia, in keeping with their heavy trade ties with Iran, have been known to express reservations regarding any punitive action towards Tehran.  

But, according to a fresh report, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaking before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee  stated, “We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of Russia and China” referring to the talks among the five permanent member plus Germany. She also spoke of immediate plans to circulate the draft to the entire Security Council. As such, grounds are prepared for further rounds of deadlocks and impasse over the Iranian nuclear programme. Only time will tell as to what lies ahead in the nuclear quagmire that is as much a mirror of the long-standing animosity between the US and Iran as it of the differences over the nature of the NPT.

As Tehran became the cynosure of global politics after performing a coup of sorts with the trilateral nuclear agreement, the G-15 summit saw the chairmanship being handed over to the Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The Summit concentrated on questioning the relevance of the major global institutions in the context of the changing world. The summit was seen as showcasing the reliability and acceptance of Iran as a responsible country to deal with, in contrast to the image projected by the western nations.

Attempts were made to project revisionist Iran at its best, with President Ahmadinejad using the platform to trumpet his rejection of the western nations and the institutions crafted by it. This line of thought was evident even when he met the Union Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna. Hailing India as a global leader and an economic powerhouse, he commented that both the countries “should not neglect the present opportunities to replace the dying big powers.”

Important matters of bilateral and regional concern including the Af-Pak situation were discussed and a common desire for diversified and enhanced India-Iran ties was expressed. Speaking at the G-15 summit, the Krishna had also put forth the need for reforms in the international financial institutions so as to make them more inclusive and help prevent the recurrence of global economic recessions. 

The member nations concurrently believed that the economic crisis “highlighted the long-standing systemic fragilities and imbalances” of the global financial structure, necessitating more transparency, more supervision and regulation. The essence was the call for alternative financial institutions more representative of the developing world. The Joint Communiqué said: “The Bretton Woods Institutions (like the World Bank and the IMF set up to fund reconstruction of world after World War-II) should not be seen as the unique source of financing for the developing world.”

Groups and associations, both intra-regional and inter-regional have mushroomed over the years, reflecting the changing nature of the international politics, surely assuming a multi-polar nature by each passing day. No longer can a single country or a group of countries for that matter call the shots in all areas. Power is diffused in today’s world; convergence and divergence of interests are more complex in nature. A displeased American government can make life difficult for an intransigent Tehran but an oil-rich Iran still manages to maneuver in this world. As such, bodies such as the G-15 and others are increasingly bound by the need of countries with different priorities to find common voices, convergent ideas and other forms of inter-linking interest.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)