Round The World

New Delhi, 28 May 2010

UPA-II 1st Year

FEW MAJOR DIPLOMATIC FOOTPRINTS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The Manmohan Singh administration completes the first year in office of its second term and a general recap indicates that the diplomatic plate has been more than full. As expressed by the Prime Minister in his press meet, India has tried to engage with and has to a certain extent managed to enhance and diversify ties with all the major powers, be it Russia, the United States or for that matter China. The Foreign Minister’s visit to China was deemed a success, although no grand breakthrough was made. Despite the initial hiccups with the Obama administration, India-US relations has caught up with full gusto and the good rapport between the Manmohan Singh and the US President Obama could only take the relationship forward.

India has differences with the US over the handling of the Afghanistan conflict but New Delhi’s close ties with the Karzai government do not seem to be jeopardized by any measure. The Afghan President has time and again made efforts to show his reliance and conviction on India as a responsible power in the region.

India-Pakistan: As for India’s stormy relations with neighbouring Pakistan, the 26/11 terror attacks cast a shadow. During the press meet Prime Minister Singh said “trust deficit” between India and Pakistan was the “biggest problem” coming in the way of any improvement in bilateral relations. “It has been my effort to try to reduce the gap between our two countries without surrendering or affecting our vital national interest,” he told reporters. India has realized that shutting the doors of diplomacy and engagement, more so with the civilian government of Pakistan has not paid dividends and as such, a good initiation has been made at the SAARC summit in Thimpu, where he met his Pakistani counterpart.  

PM Singh cautiously expressed hope at the major diplomatic efforts underway to bridge the trust deficit between India and Pakistan. The nature of the conflict between India and Pakistan is rooted in our common past. The issues are complicated and often inter-linked, one failure often snowballing to hurt composite relations.

The trajectory of India-Pakistan relations can be compared to a messy divorce wherein the couple has a lot of issues to be settled. Any effort to reconcile the differences between will be frustrating often, but it is imperative to keep channels of communication open. A cautious foot has been put forward in by India toward the resumption of meaningful talks between the two nations and fingers are crossed as we wait and watch the developments in India-Pakistan relationship, something that has nearly overshadowed all other issues and almost defines the politics of the region.

India and the AfPak strategy: The tensions and the divergences between India-Pakistan also extend to their roles in the long-drawn Afghanistan conflict. India’s activities in Afghanistan have been a constant source of irritation for the Pakistani establishment, insecure and suspicious that increasing Indian influence might be inimical to its own influence in the region.

The nightmarish rise of the Taliban yet again as a viable political force in the future of Afghanistan should not be good news for India, or for that matter any other country in the region. But, the Pakistani military and intelligence having been actively involved in the creation of the Taliban at the first instance see this ultra-conservative Islamist group as a favourable force to Pakistan’s interests.

The course of events has not been encouraging there with the Taliban confident of driving the NATO forces to war fatigue. Besides, plans being hatched among international players to collude with the so called “Good Taliban” do not sound very promising either.  At present, India’s soft power is evident in the volume of assistance given towards the reconstruction of the war-torn country, resulting in India having to suffer some serious casualties in recent times. President Hamid Karzai’s short stopover in New Delhi en-route to the SAARC summit in Thimpu served as a vindication of India’s soft power influence and encouraged New Delhi to continue its humanitarian activities in Afghanistan provided the safety and security of Indian lives is taken into serious consideration.

Though the politics in Afghanistan is complex and entails a lot of roadblocks in fashioning an effective measure to bring some semblance of normalcy, New Delhi’s caution against power-sharing with brute Taliban need to be taken into account, and the dependence on Pakistani military and intelligence should be adequately evaluated.

India-US: As for India-US relations, it has been a story of some hiccups but a satisfying picture in its entirety. India and the US experienced a thaw in their relations during the closing years of the Clinton Administration, significantly taken forward during the Bush Administration. President Obama’s succession brought some concerns in the Indian diplomatic circles, with highlight accorded to non-proliferation goals. Moreover, the Obama Administration went to the extent of hinting at a prospective Chinese role in the Indian subcontinent. 

But, efforts made to dispel the misunderstandings have yielded results. After much negative speculations, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s India visit managed to infuse a lot of positive energy. Besides signing official agreements, Secretary Clinton engaged in public diplomacy meeting people from across wide areas of interests.

Then, the icing on the cake came in the form of the State welcome given to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the White House and the extra mile that President Obama walked to dispel the fears and misconceptions on the Indian side. The recent US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue raised many an eyebrow in the Indian strategic circles. But, the Obama administration has made concerted efforts to cultivate increasing ties with New Delhi and appeared to be in no mood to jeopardize this intense and diverse relationship. During the dialogue, the US was categorical that the India-Pakistan issues need to be resolved bilaterally.

India-China: Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna recently concluded an official visit to China that has been termed successful from both sides. The high-level trip, as expected, raised a number of vital issues in Sino-Indian relations and managed to keep the competitive nature and unnecessary rhetoric minimal. One of the highlights of the visit was China and India agreeing to set up a top level hotline between the two prime ministers, in an otherwise fractious relationship marred by differences over the boundary dispute, on the Dalai Lama and a host of other issues.

As India and China celebrate the 60^th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, recent developments and cooperation are being seen as a reminder that the neighbours despite the seeming competition have no alternative but to cooperate with each other. At the same time, India and China seem to be hardly moving ahead in matters of crucial security interests, be it the protracted boundary issue or China’s response to India’s bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. But keeping in mind the historical contour of India-China ties and the suspicions and insecurity that pervades this relationship, it is best to expect incremental and no revolutionary changes. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Political Diary

New Delhi, 29 May 2010

State Pays Back In Kind

SUPERHIT MOVIE HARTAL, ANYONE?

By Poonam I Kaushish

What is good for the geese is good for the gander. Last week was a lesson of sorts in this acronym for our bandh experts who resort to strikes at the drop of a hat on anything and everything. A payback time wherein the State made plain that the strikers’ freedom ended where its fists began!

Three cheers to the Union Civil Aviation Ministry for coming down with an iron hand on two Air India employee unions, Air Corporation Employees Union and All-India Aircraft Engineers Association who went on a flash strike two days after the heart-wrenching Air India Express aircrash in Mangalore. In an unprecedented order, the unions were de-recognised, their offices sealed, 58 employees sacked and 24 suspended. Not for our strikers to bother that their action resulted in cancellation of 130 flights and a revenue loss of Rs 10-crore.

Why blame them alone? Turn North, South, East or West the story is the same. Bandhs aka hartal have not only become everyday occurrences but also an integral part of our psyche that most people consider it as a holiday! Despite innumerable court rulings banning them. Simply because bandhs are the weapons employed by one and all to serve their cause of the day.  So what it leads to disruption of rail and air traffic, closure of central establishments adding up to a huge loss for the nation.

Last month alone India stood witness to a two-day Maoists bandh in Jharkhand, Orissa, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal, a TRS sponsored Telangana bandh in Andhra, a ‘Bangla bandh’ by the CPM in WBengal, Karnataka’s Gulbarga city held one in support of pourakarmikas, Kashmir’s Kishtwar district too observed one in protest over Prophet Mohammed "blasphemous" cartoons on Facebook and YouTube. The Naga Students' Federation blocked NH-39 to protest the Manipur Government’s "failure" in fulfilling their demands.

The tragedy of India is that holding bandhs has become a lucrative 'business'. The easiest way for the party to get free publicity without any capital investment. It is misused by parties, trade unions and other political factions. A trade unionist bluntly said: "We use bandhs to serve our political ends.  Specially, post a poll debacle to pep up demoralized workers, mobilize men ahead of future polls and revive the organization. “

Never mind the loss to the exchequer. According to a recent Indian Chamber of Commerce report, last month’s 13-Opposition parties one-day bandh against price rise cost hundreds of crores. W Bengal incurred a loss of Rs. 496 crores, Orissa Rs 120 crore, Tripura Rs 80-90 crore, Kerala Rs 90 crore and Jharkhand Rs 110-Rs 120 crore. As for wage loss the less said the better. Bengal registered a loss of Rs 35.8 crore Andhra Rs 26.3 crore, Karnataka Rs 13.2 crore and Tamil Nadu Rs 14.9 crore. Wonder how the strike helped contain inflation.

More. W Bengal has the maximum bandhs, an average of 40-50 per year. Followed by Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. In Kerala a single day's shutdown costs the State Rs 700 crore. Divided by the State’s population it translates to Rs 233 per Keralite. Manipur experienced 52 bandhs and 43 blockades in the 2007-08 that cost the State Rs 504.32 crore and Rs 236.68 crore respectively.  Worse, the three National Highways passing through the North-East witnessed economic blockades for 139 days from April 2006-December 2007, wherein Sikkim lost Rs 7 crore per day.

India’s labour force is estimated to be 40-50 crore roughly 39% of the country’s population. Think. Apart from the income loss, a bandh deprives crores of people the right to earn their hopelessly meagre source of subsistence. Given that over 70% people earn less than Rs 20 per day. Plainly, a bandh worsens their already deplorable state. And we talk ad nauseum of eradicating poverty. Sic

Bluntly, strikes don't work. If anything, they demean the very cause they are supposed to promote. The parties don’t earn praise from passengers stranded at the airports, railway and bus stations. Shopkeepers who lose their day's earnings don’t down their shutters voluntarily.  Daily wages earners curse them?

Questionably, a bandh is supposed to be in support of a cause. But does it actually serve that cause? What purpose do these bandhs serve? Who do they benefit? What do we gain from them? The answer? Zilch. Except the strikers.

Needless to say, a distinction has to be made between the right to bandh and right to strike. Remember, the strike action evolved as an expression of dissent during the 19th century. The right to strike without disrupting public order is a given in all democracies and is a tool that workers use to negotiate terms of work.

This is not to be confused with bandhs or hartals, which evolved post Independence. A subversion of the original idea of hartal. The action is seldom voluntary. Political parties who call for a strikes enforce it ruthlessly. Forced shutdown of social and economic activity backed by the implicit threat of violence is how bandhs are claimed to be ‘successful’. In most cases, political parties succeed in enforcing their call because people fear for their safety.

Voluntarism has been given a quiet burial. Even essential services are not spared during a hartal. Our polity needs to realize that if agitations and bandhs become a routine feature, it could lead to anarchy and chaos. However, aggrieved a party might be it  has no right to take to streets and pose a threat to public peace, harmony, order and progress. It harms all except the disgruntled politicians and their stooges.

Democracy is neither mobocracy nor a license to create bedlam. It is a fine balance between rights and duties, liberties and responsibilities. One’s freedom pre-supposes another’s responsibilities and liberty. Importantly, bandhs cannot set things right and at the same time it cannot create any psychological impact or pressure on the minds of those people who are sitting at the helm of affairs. Gone are the days when people used to give importance to strikes called by major parties. It was considered a prestige of their own. But now bandhs have lost their edge.

What next? Clearly, our parties and unions should be selective about what they call the bandh for. Perhaps, they should reserve them for special issues. Make a strike voluntary to express our solidarity, our sympathy or our anger. A candle-light vigil, wear black armbands, petition the power-that-be et al. There are million ways to express our disgust. A bandh is not one of them.

The writing on the wall is clear. The need of the hour is to change the dynamics of a bandh and replace it with a new social contract. That gives higher bargaining power to the aam aadmi as opposed to parties or unions who call for strikes, hold the State hostage only to achieve their own selfish interests.

Simultaneously, we need some sort of a political contract between political fronts agreeing they won't use hartals as a tool to promote their political agenda. Else the day is not far when India will resound to announcements:  Superhit movie : Hartal! INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Economic Highlights

New Delhi, 25 May 2010

Rs 19000 Cr Suspense

KEEP TAB ON GOVT’S MONEY MATTERS

By Shivaji Sarkar

Should the governments – either at the Centre or the States – have enormous financial powers? The Constitution has endowed them with immense powers. It has even allowed money bills to be deemed to have been passed after a stipulated period of 14 days. In fact, there is little that could be done to fetter the Government when it comes to money, particularly on its spending.

This has led to many unsavoury situations and expenditures that are virtually above all scrutiny. Such vague procedures lead to inappropriate expenditure. Many a time it leads also to witch hunting and investigations that lead nowhere.

The move to fetter the Government on money aspects has become more acute as more and more of its money is going into “suspense accounts”. Indeed, it is a suspense. The poor citizen may be carefully planning his expenses. Each paisa counts for him. He has also to justify each of it in his tax deeds. There are rules for him. When it comes to the Government, nothing binds it. It dumps large unaccounted expenses largely and some income in the “suspense account”. It is a whopping Rs 19,000 crore in 2008-09.

It is a jump of Rs 12,000 crore over the figures of the previous year. The figure for 2007-08 on this head was Rs 6524.85 crore. Almost all wings and departments are using this method. The budgets of defence, post, telecommunication and civil accounts documenting expenditures of Central ministries are resorting to it.

The civil account for 2008-09 shows Rs 4890 crore on this count. It is almost ten times more than 2007-08. The defence suspense account has Rs 7408 crore, which is almost double than that of the previous year.

The revelation of the account itself has come as a surprise to the nation. The worse is that the Standing Committees of both Houses of Parliament did not find it objectionable. Parliament without going through the details has given its approval. The Houses do not discuss the Union Budget in detail. Since mid-90s the task has been left to the Standing Committees. They go through each departmental budget and on their recommendation suitable amendments are made before the Lok Sabha formally approves it. The Rajya Sabha has recommendatory powers but technically it has no say in the budgetary process.

The Standing Committees were entrusted with the task of scrutinizing the voluminous budgetary document as the houses do not have enough time and members do not have skill to understand the intricate budgetary process. Parliament usually around March 17 goes for a recess so that the committees could do their job. It was perceived that the Standing Committees with a focus on each aspect and powers to summon officials to explain the issues would do a better job of keeping a check on Government accounts.

Now it appears that the very purpose of forming Standing Committees are being lost. Else how such huge and virtually unaccounted expenses could be approved by Parliament. Many State Governments have their annual budget, which is much smaller than this.

It calls for having a fresh look at the budgetary scrutiny and approval process. Even the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) is terribly peeved at this official procedure that goes against the norms set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB).

Both the IMF and the WB want the Government budgetary process to be transparent. It has set universal norms for ensuring such transparency. The procedure includes exclusion of vague terms. The international organizations view lack of transparency as a process that leads to corruption. Over the years many of the procedures have been streamlined. Still those who prepare the Budget find out ways to keep things under shroud.

The suspense account is one such instrument. This is supposed to account for income and expenditures, for which complete information is not available. This is an ongoing accounting procedure, which has to be settled before finalization of the accounts at end of the financial year. In accounting terms it is an ad hoc process. The accounts would not be deemed to have been finalized without parking the amount posted in such account in their proper heads.

It may look like a small erroneous step. But it is graver than that. Many companies have taken this route to siphon off thousands of crores. Satyam has been only the tip of the iceberg. Not only Satyam, Arthur and Adnerson, the chartered accountant firm, has precisely helped number high-end companies to present a sparkling balance sheet that it never was. Enron had in that glory till it collapsed. The CRB bank that was rated the best bank of the year, by a business magazine 12 years back, went bust within three months of getting the tag.

Clearly, Government finances need to be presented in a much more careful and authentic manner. It only reeks of something more serious than the figures merely indicate.

The Union budget does not explain how such faux pas is taking place year after year despite the finance ministry questioning every expense. In many cases, the finance ministry even does not allow legitimate expenditures to be made. In a scenario like this nobody explains the phenomenon.

This needs to be treated not only with circumspection but also strengthens the view that the Government should not be virtually allowed to do a cakewalk during the budgetary session. Despite lots of procedural wrangling, the Opposition has no power to stall an inappropriate, forget illegitimate, expenditure on any count.

The Opposition and the civil society should make it an issue to amend the Constitution to make passing of the budget, both at the Centre and in States, more difficult. This would put a check on unsavoury expenses being made on occasions such as the  Commonwealth Games.

The clauses that give the Government powers on money bills must be looked into afresh so that the citizen’s tax contributions are properly accounted for and also spent on heads that are necessary. The Government budgetary process, if not streamlined, would turn into being the fountain head of corruption. The nation needs to start a process of deliberation so that the Government is subjected to checks on monetary issues. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

Round The States

New Delhi, 26 May 2010

Constitution Fifth Schedule

Governors Have Special Powers

By Insaf

Dame luck has smiled once more on the State Governors. Only recently, the Supreme Court ruled that the Centre can no longer play ducks and drakes with the Governors of the States as it has done over the years. The power to remove a Governor, it has directed, will be exercised only by the President in “rare and exceptional circumstances for valid, compelling reasons.” A Governor could not be removed on the ground that he was out of sync with the policies and ideologies of the Union Government or the party at the Centre. It also held that the Court would interfere if the reasons for a Governor’s removal were “irrelevant, malafide or whimsical”. India’s Attorney General G.E. Vahanvati has now held in a clear opinion sought by the Centre that the Governor is not a mere rubber stamp vis a vis the State Government. He has stated that the Governor was free to make regulations for the “peace and good governance” of the Fifth Schedule areas in a State. The Fifth Schedule, under Article 244(1) of the Constitution, contains provisions as to the Administration and control of Scheduled Areas and Scheduled Tribes in a State.

The AG has reportedly gone deep into the widths of power available to the Governor vis a vis the Fifth schedule areas and asserted that if the Governor was of the opinion that a particular law or regulation made by a State Government be not applicable to such areas, then he could do so without seeking the opinion of the concerned council of Ministers headed by the Chief Minister. What is more, especially for the twin strategy of meeting the Naxalite fire with fire and hastening the development process in these areas, the Governor was free to make his own regulations for harmony and effective governance. Interestingly, the AG’s opinion coincides with the recommendations of the Mangeshkar Committee report of the Planning Commission. The Committee had advocated that the Governor must play a more pro-active role for ensuring protection of tribal rights for tribal welfare and development. Not many are aware that a Governor of a State having Scheduled areas is required under the Constitution to report annually to the President or whenever so required by him.

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Unlimited Mandate

That, however, is only one aspect of Attorney General Vahanvati’s considered opinion. Importantly, he has virtually held that the Union Home Minister, P. Chidambaram, need not feel handicapped in dealing with the Naxal menace and bemoan that the Union Cabinet had allowed him only a “limited mandate”. He has clearly advised the Centre that the Fifth Schedule areas identified by the Constitution, which in six out of nine States are Maoist hotbeds, could be administered directly by the Centre through the Governors and in doing so they were not bound by the advice of the State Governments. This gives the Centre an unlimited mandate in the Fifth Schedule areas. The Centre could, therefore, formulate its own strategies without falling foul of the perceived notion that the Governors act only on the advice of the State Government in tackling Naxalism. The Fifth Schedule areas in the States of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra are mainly forest and tribal areas where Maoists have entrenched themselves taking advantage of widespread poverty.

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UP Finances Alarming

Sonia Gandhi is clearly one up and more against Mayawati in UP. The UPA Chairperson’s contention that Mayawati’s UP continues to be in “a sorry state of affairs” has been endorsed by none less than the Planning Commission. In fact, the Commission has expressed serious concern over the regional disparities in the largest electoral State and warned that its deteriorating financial position has reached alarming levels. In a recent letter to Mayawati, the Commission’s Deputy Chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, reportedly stated that “regional disparities in UP are a cause of worry and Bundelkhand, Eastern and Central regions of the State lag behind Western regions in almost all parameters of development.” He also reminded her of the special package of Rs.3,506 crore approved by the Centre for drought mitigation in the Bundelkhand area and asked her to issue necessary directions to ensure their utilization. Sonia Gandhi had alleged that the Centre was offering liberal assistance to UP. But the money was not being spent on development programmes.

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Darjeeling Defies GJM

A question mark has gone up over the writ and popularity of Bimal Gurung and his Gorkha Janmukti Morcha in Darjeeling following the brutal murder of the All India Gorkha League President Madan Tamang. The GJM, known for its politics of bandh in the hills, tried to enforce normalcy by asking the people to keep the shops and establishments open the next day. But there was total defiance, as people imposed a near-total shut down in the hills. The killing of Madan Tamang, one of the oldest votaries of a separate State for the Gorkhas, has greatly outraged the people of the hills. In fact his slaughter has led to the creation for the first time of a multi-party organization --- Democratic Front --- to challenge the “autocratic” rule of the GJM Chief, Bimal Gurung. The Front comprises the AIGL, CPRM, BJP, Trinamool Congress, Congress and Sikkim-Darjeeling Unification Manch. Significantly, Ashok Bhattacharya, Urban Development Minister, West Bengal, has even questioned the utility of continuing Tripartite Talks at New Delhi for resolving the impasse in the hills.

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PM’s Visit To J&K

Jammu & Kashmir and its long-suffering people are eagerly awaiting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the State in the second week of June. The PM is expected to pick up threads of an engagement he had begun during his earlier visit with such initiatives as a round-table on the State and its future as well as talks with all shades of opinion. Dr. Manmohan Singh continues to be prepared to speak with the Huriyat leaders as in past. But it is upto the leaders of both the factions of the Huriyat’s to decide if they are willing to participate in the discussion. The Huriyat faction led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq was in constant touch with Track II interlocutors for hammering out an agreement. They have now to carry this a stage further and hold meaningful talks in the best, long-term interest of the State. What should help is the recent statement of Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Quereshi expressing his country’s willingness to carry forward efforts for an accord from where President Musharraf left it.

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Gogoi Given Free Hand

Assam’s unassuming Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi, has been given by the Centre a free hand to decide on matters relating to peace talks with the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and other militant groups, thanks to recent “dramatic developments”, including the arrest of ULFA Chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, and NDFB Chief Ranjan Daimary. However, counter-insurgency operations against the rebels will continue. Union Home Minister Chidambaram, who was visiting Guwahati following a trip to Aizawl, clarified to the media on Tuesday that the Centre would provide full support to Gogoi and it would henceforth be up to him to decide on how to carry forward the political process. The Centre holds by one basic position. All the militant groups must lay down their arms. Chidambaram declared: “There will be no let up in counter-insurgency operations in Assam till all the insurgents give up arms and join the political process”. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)